This is exactly the problem, the elites continue to think of the people as cannon fodder or cheap unqualified labour. With a declining, more experienced population (where people over the age of 60 won't be "elderly" but active) you can improve the standard of living even if GDP stops growing.

I was having a discussion with friends last night about the US.  In the US, there's a significant group that has sufficient private pension funds to retire, but is unable to because they are unable to get health coverage.

I would love to see the universal coverage that Americans over 65 are now eligible for (Medicare) expanded on a pay for play basis to those who are 55 and over.  Doing that could remove a large number of employees who have delayed retirement plans and have blocked the upward mobility of younger workers, that in turn would shrink the labor supply.  And we know that where the supply of labor is reduced and demand is constant, one of two things will happen.  Either wages will increase, or employers will substitute capital investement for labor..

That I believe is one vital distiction between Europe and America.  In Europe where the relative minimum wage is higher inefficient positions have been eliminated and employers either substitute captial  (ie machines) for labor, or invest in human capital (ie education) to make their workers more productive.  In the end both employer and employee survive the better for it.

In particular, the cheap labor conservatives deny America the full use of its investment in human capital because the capital investments to create skilled positions that are more productive doesn't exist when employers can cheat and pay their workers less than they are worth through market manipulation (ie encouraging workers with no legal right who ae supsectible to private coercion to emigrate without permit.)

As for the aging of Spain, right now would be a good time to invest in nursing homes (aka old age homes)  The force at work here is gender equality, as women leave the home for the workplace they can no longer care for the grandparents.  So first, families try to do at home with a nurse, and then later they end up in a state or church run facility.  The question for the long term is whether the provinces will create nursing homes, or whether they will leave that to the private sector.  With the federal nature of healthcare in Spain  you could see a patchwork arise.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

Actually what was different in this latest report was the claim that Germany won't be able to "import" people at a level that will prevent a net drop in population.

I don't know if this is because there are restrictions, or a lack of space, or a lack of opportunities, or anti-immigration social pressure or some other reason. But the report assumed some measure of immigration and still sees the population declining.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

With people getting older and healthier it's common sense that they also work longer.

For example, when Bismarck introduced pension at 65, the average German laborer died at 62. So if we should continue in his footsteps people should retire not at 65 like they do today but when they turn 85.

But well, I guess we can do better than Bismarck. 70 is a good age. Or seriously, why don't retire when you feel like it? The longer you work the higher your pension will be.

If Hans Blix can work at 78, so can I.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

a report published recently also predicted a lesser crime, hence decreased costs.

Unless Hell's Grannies strike again.

Yes, it is a mixed bag of feelings, because on one hand kids are the future, on the other their future will be better if they are fewer. Because that overpopulation thing is no joke (and no elite conspiracy either as far as I can tell, and I know some people who do this research). Yes, we could house a lot of people on this planet if everybody shrinks their ecological footprint, but right now our total ecological footprint is bigger then the planet can provide. And then we might want to leave some room for other animals then our domesticated ones.

It is not at all sure that we have entered a permanent decline. The tendency to draw every curve in the direction of its current tangent untill it reaches zero or infinity is what leed people to believe - just a few decades ago - that the population was in permanent exponential growth. And it was not.

What we in Europe (and Japan) is experiencing now is stage four in the demographic transition. What will happen next is anybodys guess as this whole demographic transition theory is a generalisation on the rich countries experiences. So we are in the frontline, were we can guess how other populations will develop but are a bit blind when it comes to our own future.

But taking a stab in the dark, I think (barring global collapse of the ecosystems we depend upon) that the following will happen in stage five:

1. Populations will stabilise on a lower level, that is every women will have about 2.1 children or just above.

2. As this is mainly dependent on womens situation one of the two following will happen:

2a. The negatives of childbirth are externalised. That is society in large pays for the costs of raising children, free healthcare for mother and children, free or very subsidised childcare (Sweden did a lot of this in the 30ies, it was very succesfull in keeping the birthrate up (and then people with unwanted characteristicas was sterialized at the same time, giving you a better picture of the goal of the policy)). The societal negatives are abandoned when giving birth to and taking care of children are seen as a positive experience and not as loss of valuable time to gain other experiences.

2b. Patriarchy reaffirms itself and takes back the power over womens reproductive systems. As knowledge is power sexual education is banned or at least abandoned. Abortion is banned (except if you were raped, by your father and the moon was full), preventiv measures are limited (no day-after pill). Women are in practice hindered to get a well paid job, making them dependent on a man. And so on and so forth.

But I would bet on global collapse of the ecosystems we depend upon, which probably will make birthrates go up as soon as we are poor and sick enough.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!