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by Jerome a Paris
Thu Mar 16th, 2006 at 05:24:29 PM EST
Today's demonstrations against the CPE appear to have been a big success, with several hundred thousand students in the streets all over France, despite a few local episodes of violence. Saturday, the students will be joined by workers' unions in another big day of demonstrations, and the goal is to reach one and a half million people in the streets.
I hope that others will pitch in with their testimony and bits of news, but I wanted to summarise what was said in Le Canard Enchaīné yesterday, which provides insider glimpses of what the politicians are thinking. It's not pretty.
Here it is, in random order:
- Chirac, as usual, is clueless. Until Monday, he was saying "it's the government's problem, let villepin handle it. Since Monday, he has felt the need to support his prime minister, but everybody knows that Chirac has always capitulated against students (he did in 1986, in 1994, in 1995;
- Villepin alternates between demonstrations of toughness ("Balladur (who gave in on a similar contract in 1994) had no balls. I do, and I'll fight to the end. It's like during WWI in the trenches. We must not let anything go") and tiredness ("beyond 1.5 m demonstrators, we cannot hold");
- Sarkozy alternates between glee that Villepin is about to humiliate himself ("the French are against it, the Ministers are against it, MPs are against. Villepin is isolated, and if the demonstrations are strong, he will be forced to capitulate) and worry that the fallout will catch him, along with the whole right-wing majority. He is also particularly worried about a potential hook up between students and banlieues kids (which seems partly under way), and by risks of violence. Both he (as minister for the interior) and Villepin have given strict insturctions to the police to keep their calm;
- many in the majority are deeply reluctant, fearing a major break up with youth (several have noted that the simultaneity with the internet copyright debate is terrible, and say that thye are receiving unprecedented numbers of emails about that topic from "internautes"). They feel obliged to support Villepin ("like the rope supports the hanging man" said one) and hold ranks, but several have already expressed deep misgivings and asked Villepin to drop the text.
- there is, as usual, infighting between the left and the hardleft to try to control the movement, but it seems to be self-organised to a large extent, and beyond the grasp of organised political movements. The left has been vocal in its opposition of the plan, but it's not sure that it will be able to benefit from the student movement;
- more generally, there is a feeling that the French youth are deeply unhappy with a number of things (there are many, many different grievances that have come up and given strength to the overall protests), and in particular the fear that they are being sacrificed (once more) by society;
- there appears to be growing support from the banlieues for the movement. some have tried to caricature it as an "elites" fighting for their privileges against the lower classes youth, but these are saying that they don't see how more precarity will help them. This is still fluid, but an increasing number of high schools are joining the movement (Le Monde states that 32 of Paris' 100 high schools were closed today by protests).
- unions, which had waited to see if the student protests had any energy in them, are now fully supportive, and organising Saturday's big demonstrations. Villepin is trying to save his law by announcing "negotiated adjustments", but all unions have stated flatly that they would negotiate only after the 2-year trial period and the right to fire people without cause were dropped. They see Villepin upping that stakes, and are looking forward to him falling from even higher...
The movement is now becoming a major social moment, and the current government is unlikely to stay unscathed. In a sense, the question is whether Villepin will take Sarkozy and Chirac wiht him, or if he will be destroyed alone. His chances of surviving the crisis appear slim today, and there's a good chance that the right could be nastily tainted. The big worry is that this brings a full year of disorder, which could paly into Le Pen's hands. The situation is very fluid and the stakes are getting steadily higher.
The good news is that collective protests and resistance work.
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