European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

CPE climbdown?

by Colman
Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:53:07 AM EST

The BBC reports:

French President Jacques Chirac has announced that the new youth employment law that sparked weeks of protests will be scrapped.
He said the First Employment Contract - or CPE - would be replaced by other measures to tackle youth unemployment.
Millions of students and union members have taken to the streets over the last month in protest against the law, with demonstrations often turning violent.
[...]

Mr de Villepin is expected to give further details of the new measures.

Comments and update from our French readers below. I hope.

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CPE climbdown? | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

NOT 'scrapped', "replaced" (none / 0)

Count on those heartless anglo journalists not to understand nuance...

It's not scrapped, because that would humiliate Villepin, and he's been threatening to resign for the past, oh, 3 weels if the CPE was abandoned, disfigured or diluted. A deal was actually found on Friday already, but vetoed by Villepin because it sounded too much like a abandonment.

So it's "replaced", "replaced" by something that will be acceptable...

(But, yes, in the mantime, it's scrapped)
(And yes, it's pretty pathetic)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:20:52 AM EST

SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

Well, le Monde speaks of "Les dernières heures du CPE (the last hours of the CPE", and Libération headlines: "C'est fait: le CPE est mort (It's over: the CPE is dead".

I don't think there's any nuance. Not scrapping the CPE would have led to a dangerous situation, and Chirac must somehow have persuaded Villepin not to resign. The supposed replacement is called, in French politico-speak, "un dispositif en faveur de l'insertion professionnelle des jeunes en difficulté (a plan of action in favour of the entry into professional life of youth in difficulty)".

The next thing would be to scrap the Gaullists from French political life (or favorize their entry into retirement, if one prefers...)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:28:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

I'm looking forward to Wednesday and the new Canard Enchainé. Last week, the sarkozystes were hinting that thye would play hardball with Villepin, in the knowledge that, if he resigns, he has nowhere to go ("his home is the Elysée", and if he leaves, he loses it definitively"). Of course, Villepin's threat was to Chirac in that he would bring him down along with him, so yes, I'm curious to see what made him accept this.

In any case, we're governed by two corpses for another year, so I'd expect more crises on the way. I need to dig up what I wrote, but I basically predicted that sad state of things as the logical outcome of the referendum on the Constitution, and called for Chirac to resign then.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:29:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

So, Villepin is dead for 2007 (and so is Chirac of course, but that we knew all along).

I don't have any respect for those two guys but at least they are not stupid when it comes to their internal politics. I'm sure those two would prefer to bring down the majority to to bring down Sarkozy with them rather than leave him a way to the Elysée. So I'd tend to think that Sarkozy is dead too.

On the other side of the aisle, the PS is inexistent. No serious leader, no program, no nothing. It's just trying to hitch a ride on the students' protest and, I'm pretty sure, hoping it will quiet down (even if the situations are very different, it's always useful to remember that the net result of 1968 for the left was 13 years in the doghouse).

Where does that lead us?

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 1)

Agreed, the PS is inexistent. But:

the net result of 1968 for the left was 13 years in the doghouse).

doesn't seem right to me. It's true there was a backlash immediately after '68, but it died down, and the '70s were not dominated by the right in terms of share of general thinking and political discourse. It was simply the constitutional advantage of the right that enabled it to hang on to government. Alain Peyrefitte (a well-known Gaullist of the day) is often quoted as having said : "If we don't do anything silly, we're in power till 2000".

I think it's fairer to say that the near coup d'état of 1958, and the constitution of the 5th Republic that was written then to give de Gaulle (and later his hangers-on) a stable, comfortable ride in power, gave the right 23 years of uninterrupted government, during which they were only really threatened by... May '68...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:23:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 1)

Well, afew, you have a rather strange reading of the situation on the left in the 70s in my view. What is not in dispute is that France was tilting towards the left ever since the early 1960s with the progressive weakening of the Communists and mainlining of the left but 1968 brought chaos to the left and prevented this tilt to translate into power.

In particular, the 1973 parliamentary elections are nothing to crow about but rather a return to the trend after a walloping in 1968.

The non-commie left really started to dust itself off in 1974 with the rallying of most of the PSU to Mitterrand's PS but only after 6 years of complete utter chaos. Already, the same dynamic as today and as in 2002 between the non-commie extreme left and the PS. The infighting on the right between VGE and Chaban also gave an avenue for Mitterrand to build credibility in the 1974 presidential elections.

And yet, after a good showing in 1976, the left still fell short in 1979 and had to wait 1981 for their real break. At least, this one was the big break.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:30:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

Obviously, the left wasn't winning the elections. But there was a real movement behind Mitterand in '74, not just an opening caused by in-fighting on the right. He did, after all, get more than 49% of the vote (that one almost tipped over). You're right that the left was not well-organized, (though I'd give more prominence to back-stabbing from the PCF than to the importance of the post-'68 extreme-left movements). Things improved in the second half of the seventies.

But I still don't see why you think May '68 was responsible for the left's difficulties beyond, say, 1971-2 (Epinay, the Programme Commun). The bourgeoisie that was scared by '68 wasn't going to vote massively for the left anyway. And the right did have the advantage of being firmly ensconced in power, holding all the levers of command of the state since the very inception of the constitution. That was the way I saw it at the time, anyway, and I wasn't alone (which doesn't mean I'm right... ;))

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 1)

Re-read my comment and you'll see why I think 1968 is relevant to today's situation. Sorry to quote myself.

The non-commie left really started to dust itself off in 1974 with the rallying of most of the PSU to Mitterrand's PS but only after 6 years of complete utter chaos. Already, the same dynamic as today and as in 2002 between the non-commie extreme left and the PS.

1968 did a double wallop on the left. On one hand, a short-lived reaction and a temporay shift to the right in 1968.

Deeper and more lasting, it gave a big lift to the non-commie extreme left, in particular to this weird PSU beast, which was ideologically all over the place, starting with Pierre Mendès France to end up with "Luxemburgists". It was marginal but sufficient to torpedo the mainstream PS and why 1974 and the rallying of the PSU moderates, Rocard et al., to the PS is important as it allowed Mitterrand to slowly neutralize those left to the extreme.

Not a random coincidence, the extreme left did 4% in 1968, 3.2% in 1973, 3.3% in 1978 but only 1.2% in 1981.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

It's true the PSU was a strange beast. I knew it (not from the inside) from the Paris Fédé that was leftist. Meanwhile there were very centrist (and, to my mind, very respectable) guys like Rocard in the tradition of Mendès. And I later met people who were former PSU and, as far as I could see, of a very authoritarian disposition. The thought of ever seeing any of these chinstrap beards at the gala of the Paris Fédé with all the hairies was pretty amusing.

So yes, it did take time in those years to pull what is now the PS together (and maybe now not so together...) My memory is still, though, of an ongoing movement with its thrust and logic (if you were for elections, not revolutions), and not of total chaos. I don't feel that kind of upward movement today...

Perhaps that's why it's less the extreme left (commie or not, today, it doesn't matter) that bothers me as the lack of focus and thrust of the PS. The fact is it's easy to imagine no party discipline behind whichever candidate is chosen. And that, of course, would facilitate a hopelessly split vote in the first round, and a Le Pen/Sarkozy second round.

Jérôme's point seems solid to me, though : that the voters on the left might inject some discipline after the 2002 experience...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:49:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 1)

The next thing would be to scrap the Gaullists from French political life (or favorize their entry into retirement, if one prefers...)

Now talk about a strawman.

Gaullism was put to pasture with de Gaulle's resignation in 1969.

Gaullism never was a political movement in the same way as, let's say, socialism, but a strictly personal movement around a one-of-a-kind man whose legitimacy owed nothing to run-of-the-mill politics. Btw, that legitimacy drove traditional politicians absolutely batshit insane as they had no grip on the man and he was the negation of everything they stood for, the haggling and give-and-take of ordinary democracy.

It was great while it lasted but cannot not (and should not) be reproduced.

That many politicos wrapped themselves into the General's legacy afterwards is another story.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:31:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 1)

Have it your way. But everyone in French politics for donkey's years after de Gaulle disappeared went on calling Chirac's lot les Gaullistes. And they certainly were a political movement, even if self-seeking and mediocre. Call them something else if you like, but you know who I'm talking about. Chirac, Villepin, and Sarkozy are... ????ists ;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

are ... are ... are gutless idiots who don't even dare to be openly right-wingers?

That's what worries me. They leave an open field to be Le Pen and friends.

Instead of having a clean hard-left, center-left, center-right and hard-right configuration, French politics have an uterly bizarre configuration on the left with a PS which tries to be a jack-of-all-trades and a center of gravity on the right which is too far on the right with a very weak center-right but not enough presence to the hard right to block authoritarians.

Instead of 4 well-defined peaks on the ideological axis and 3 possible coalitions, you have only 2 contorted blobs but without the benefit of a winner-takes-all electoral system à la American, which locks off marginal groups and forces them back in the mainstream parties.

My worries are compounded by what I hear around me: a lot of people who used to be center left, moving towards authoritarian positions out of frustration. The CPE debacle is reinforcing their views (by "proving" that it's not possible to "reform"). And I think Sarkozy shot his strongman creds at a large degree with those electors by playing against Villepin and advocating for withdrawal.

It may lead to a very dispersed situation in 2007, even worse than 2002.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:57:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 0)

I am absolutely convinced that Le Pen will get 20% of the vote in 2007. I don't see Sarkozy encroaching that much on his vote, so he will rely on the traditional right, plus whatever authoritarian leaners on the left, but he will have to fight Bayrou in any case, and all the dirty tricks from Chirac - whose only competence in 40 years of politics has been to kill off the careers of other right wing politicians.

I am not so pessimistic about the socialists as you are. Don't forget that whoever the socialist candidate is, s/he will benefit from the "guilt" effect of 2002, i.e. all the lefties that found Jospin too centrist and voted for the "real thing" to send him a pessage and got Chirac instead. The main risk is that a fucker like Fabius or Lang goes for a dissident candidature after losign the internal primary.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:09:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SI, "scrappé"... (none / 1)

I clearly see Le Pen and De Villier totaling significantly more than 20%.

And on the left, I have no clue how the PS is going to corral the extreme-left without a strong leader like Mitterrand to play sticks and carrots on today's PSUs. Just for an inkling of things to come, read that. They (PS, UNEF, CFDT) are not in control at all.

(Geee, you really detest Fabius, don't you :)

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:41:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CPE climbdown? (none / 0)

There will be. Later on today.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill

by Agnes a Paris on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:16:50 AM EST

Congratulations (none / 0)

Congratulations to the French! Meanwhile, down her ein NZ, we're facing a proposed law which would allow a mere 90 day trial period (though with no age limit). Hopefully the local unions will be able to borrow some tactics to oppose it.

(I should point out that the proposed law is a member's bill, and that the government opposes it. But we've got a wied Parliament at the moment, and it could possibly pass...)

Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn - New Zealand's liberal blog

by IdiotSavant on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:17:50 AM EST

Re: Congratulations (none / 1)

Just to set the record straight, trial periods of 30, 60, and 90 days are common in France (and may even run to six months...)

The CPE shocked people by :

the extension to a time limit that goes far beyond the period needed by an employer to evaluate a new employee, (and was therefore felt as a statement of intention to move gradually towards an employment "at will" system)
the fact that an age group was targeted, (making them feel they were going to be on the receiving end of this gradual move to "at will" in years to come)
the absence of any preliminary dialogue, (giving them the impression of being pushed around by an authoritarian wannabe "leader").

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:46:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CPE climbdown? (none / 1)

Congratulations to the French people on this one...and you stood up for all of us in Europe, so be proud. And yet...why do I feel so suspicious that this isn't a ploy of some sort. Well, I guess we will find out.

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:50:40 AM EST

Re: CPE climbdown? (none / 0)

Congratulations from the land of the lifetime at-will employees.

"I said, 'Wait a minute, Chester, You know I'm a peaceful man...'" Robbie Robertson

by NearlyNormal on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:57:03 PM EST

Re: CPE climbdown? (none / 0)

I confess that I don't understand how the French political system works. In the U.S., or in Britain, the President, or Prime Minister could say "I think the new law is bad, and I will veto it," or could say "I think the new law is bad, and I won't enforce it."

But Chirac can apparently say that the law is bad and will be replaced. How is this possible? How does he know it will be replaced? Doesn't the National Assembly have anything to say about it? Or does Chirac so tightly control a majority that he can utter rulings without fear of backlash?

Here in the U.S., Bush has constant trouble keeping his herd of neo-cons under control, yet he is branded a dictator. In Britain, Blair, who has to run in local elections, then win a second election in the House of Commons, then try to keep his unruly backbenchers under control, is also branded a dictator. But in France, Chirac, along with a Prime Minister who has never been elected to anything, can issue--and then withdraw--laws without input from the representatives, and yet is considered a model of representative democracy?

It is clear that I could use some education...

by asdf on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:04:54 PM EST

CPE climbdown? | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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