Italian Election Day Open Thread

by de Gondi
Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:33:27 PM EST

promoted by DoDo

Voting booths close at 15:00 h for the Italian general elections. Voting has been orderly without any significant incidents yesterday and this morning. Nexus exit polls should go on line just after 15:00 h.

Voter participation on Sunday was surprisingly higher than expected. In comparison with the last general elections held on two days in 1994, turnout was 57,3% against yesterday's 66,5%. The final tally in 1994 was 86,1%.

As Ritter reported yesterday, there has been peak turnout in traditionally center-left strongholds with an all-time record in Rome of nearly 68%. Traditional conservative areas appear to follow the general downward trend of recent elections. This is an encouraging sign that the center-right message may not have galvanized their traditional constituency to vote. However, weather was very beautiful yesterday and may have pushed many voters to take the weekend off.

Official voting results will be put on line on the Minister of the Interior site.

Updates throughout the day and night.


Nexus exit poll results for the RAI TV will be put on-line on this RAI site as of 15:00 h.

Live election results will also be available on the following sites. Although they are in Italian, the sites are user friendly and fairly easy to understand.

Il Corriere della Sera.

La Repubblica.

La Repubblica has an on-line news services that updates every few minutes for those who read Italian.

Other non-stop public services on the web are RAI 3 and RAINews24.

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"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:12:42 AM EST
Very bad news from the senate. the difference is very  very low.
With 6 million votes counted

51.8 % Prodi
47.3 % Berlusconi

Projecting the resutls towars 100 % we have

50 % Prodi 158 seats
49 % Berlusconi. 151 seats

So it is actually very very very close!!! The low end of the exit poll

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
10 million votes counted and no change in percentage for both lists. 51.8 (left) - 47.5 (right)

Right now it is a fair win for Prodi, but everyone predicts it is going to get closer.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:38:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate 42.36% counted: 50.81% : 48.42%

Lower House 9.5% counted: 53.81% : 45.36%

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a difference of 300.000 votes and still more than half to go. This increasingly looks like a tie...down to the last vote.

I expect projections to give soon a complete tie.

Prodi can indeed lose this one.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It has just widened (50.83% : 48.33%), 45.8% counted.

Isn't the counting of predominantly leftist urban areas slower in Italy, as in most other places? That would mean a widening difference later on.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:22:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes!!! increase to 400.000 votes.

bad news. Sicily is underreported.. and in Sicily the rigth get roughly 10 % more votes.

The projections will probably stand at 50-49.

Personal analysis , Berlusconi could have won this 50-49 and the results now will be perfectly possible statistically (Pshi2 very low still).

I am still very worried.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:27:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is undercounted... and the whole South, too... indeed it has narrowed a bit again.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...but Nexus now wages to predict to the tenth percent, 50 : 48.9!

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some people just do not learn!! this is impossible.. someone not knowing enough statistics did it.

Having said that, there is a huge change that this is still 50-49 and not 49.5 - 49.5 (statistically meaningful) with 0.5 accuracy.

My bet. This is going to be between a 0.5 % for Berlsuconi all up to 2 % for Prodi... But this means nothing to th newsman so nobody is reporting it. Prodi is complaining about it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I noticed and write down a comment.

I would say we should reach half million votes ahead in the next updates or this will probably be down to each region.. and I would hate that since I do not know enough of the electoral system.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My chief worry is not this. My chief worry is that if I understood the election law right, only those parties within a coalition will be counted in the Senate race that pass 3%, plus one below 3%. For Unione, at the moment this means that Di Pietro's group will be the extra below 3%, and LA ROSA NEL PUGNO's 2.42% would be a big loss without equivalent on the other side.

I hope de Gondi or someone else can tell me that my interpretation is wrong...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think your interpretion is right but only at the regional level. So, it gets out if in a region it does not reach 3%. You will have to look region by region to know if the party is out of this particular region.

And this is the problem. If the difference is only 1% it all comes down to each region. If the difference is 2% is very unlikely that the majortiy of the seats would go to Berlusconi no matter what because the end of the tail of the distribution would benefit the left.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, in the Senate a coalition must pass with atleast 20% with atleast one party within the coalition with 3% or more. It does not matter in the Senate if there is less than 3% for minor coalition partners.

This is different in the House of Deputies where a party within a coalition must have atleast 2% on national level.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
50.28% to be exact. It stands 50.77% : 48.43%.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:32:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
61.72% to be exact. Narrowing... to 50.33% : 48.84%.

Final ratio prediction is now just 49.8% : 49.1%...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some say it is 49.8 for Berlusconi..

The fact is.. this is a tie. It all comes down to each region....

Porca miseria!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
70.13% to be exact. Narrowing... to 49.95% : 49.24%.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
150.000 votes ahead.. if we keep this result we lose the Senate but win the camera!!!!

Go Prodi go!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understood the election law right, then LA ROSA NEL PUGNO's vote will be lost in the Senate race for the Left,with no equal-sized loss on the other side - a win for CdL...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 11.7%, the vote for the House widened to 54.15% : 45.17%.

Far-right: Lega at just 4.34%, Mussolini 0.6%.

If I got the election law on the the mini-parties below 2% right, then the left will lose just 0.4% more from the above totals than the right.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:27:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 20.165%, the ratio is: 53.79% : 45.66%

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The horror... Nexus now predicts the House at 49.6% : 49.9% for B...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 33.98%, the ratio is: 52.53% : 46.86%

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:50:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sicily is highly underreported.

The present advantage of 2% is highly ficticious. Prodi has 350 K votes over Berlusconi... but half of it will be gone if Sicily would have counted the same ratio as the rest.

Unfortuantely no urban area is so undereported.

The real gap is roughly 1%. It will all come down to teach region....

This is going to be a long night. Only North regions going for Prodi in higher number on the second half of the count can change this dynamics.

A Pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are urban areas on Sicily, too!

But even if those won't go for CdL, we now have 40% counted and 120,000 advantage for CdL, at most 200,000 extra - while we can expect a similar amount from the North of the country for Unione!

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is exactly the projection giving a 50-49 if I do the numbers (roughly) correct.. I certainly hope it is right. 250 kvotes ahead effectively right now,a dn this difference reaching 400 kvotes by the end of the night. But not sure yet. 1% is too close for comfort.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is BAD!!!

Prodi loses in last projection.

It all comes down to each region and the present distribution is awful (with a  technichal tie 49.1 -50 for the right)

I am down. Speechless.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How important is the Senate relative to the House?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:12:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Prodi loses the Senate he can not govern. Perfect bicameral system. You can not pass legislation without the Senate. New elections.

And now , there are contradictory reports...

It is oficaily a tie!!!!

It all go downs to each region....Jesus

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I go to bed then... thank you all.

I will become a patissier, God willing.
by tuasfait on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well.. my take is that Prodi has probably lost the senate even winning the total vote count by half a point...sorry for this kind of good-bye.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With 22 million over 37 million votes Prodi wins the total vote by only 120 kvotes (half a point).

This makes him lose the Seante and put in danger the camera. Losing the senate means that he does not win but he does not lose either. Losing senate and camera..well he loses completely. And right now this could very well be the outcome.

Awful.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another nation of 18.5 million idiots. The West is doomed, I tell 'ya.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The camera is still virtually a tie. Do not lose hope yet. Half point in the camera means everything. So it is going to be very very close... but it is not completely lost.

But yes.. ther are roughly 18.5 million ejem...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A total of 36 million. The difference between 17.9 million XXXX and 18.1 million XXXX is amazing. You lose or win an election

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:58:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Piepoli exit polls indicate 52% for the Union and 47% for the Berlusconi coalition. Senate seats give 167 to the Union and 142 to the Cdl.

It appears that the margin of the win will allow the left to govern.

Very high turnout today, too, especially in the North and Center. The traditional stronghold of the Right in the South did not participate as hoped.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:24:35 AM EST
Will a 30-seat majority be enough to fix a deeply divided  and strongly conservative country in (maybe) five years? Prodi and friends need to start working hard tomorrow morning, and with no mercy. Because otherwise, as soon as Berlusconi leaves politics and some "respectable" steps in (Casini, Fini, or some other stooge), the centre-right will go back to power.
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:28:30 AM EST
Tell you what:

   no - at least not now. But we think about that tomorrow - ok?

by gongo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:41:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm walking over to SS. Apostoli to catch the action and will report later. I see everyone else is doing a great job keeping abreast of the news and reporting it.

Thanks and catch you later.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:13:18 AM EST
Here you go!!!!!

Have fun!!!! As much as I had with ZP!!!!

Take care, my friend!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:16:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Go to the Birreria Peroni at the left hand side of the square and ask Franco (he's the tall guy with baffetti) for a draught beer in Wolf's German army boot.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll do so. But I had my beers elsewhere with the right people in the wrong atmosphere.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have there been any exit-poll "leaks"? I would assume that the parties might have some non-public information from the polling companies?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:44:25 AM EST
If they have, it would be illegal in italy to say it before today at 15h (GMT+1)
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:11:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for this. (If you sent me an email reply and I didn't answer, sorry that's because my mail server seems to be dead.)

I repaired some links.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:20:14 AM EST
Stuff it. As if the webmaster heard me, the mail server suddenly worked - but I see I already 'answered' everything in your email.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:24:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And I "answered" your previous suggestion! Get any sleep last night- or this morning rather?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:06:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
4 hours - I am a bit dizzy today :-)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:59:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks de Gondi for putting this together. I am waiting with high expectations!!

Half the population is under the age of 18. Tanzania's future is NOW...join the 50% campaign!
by whataboutbob on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:01:29 AM EST
The RAI web server seems overloaded. Anyone who watched TV?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:03:05 AM EST
At last, at least the RAI homepage loads - the exit poll says 50-54% for the Left, 45-49% for the Right.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:23:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nexus exit polls give a win by the Union between 50,5% and 54%. The Right coalition is between 45% to 49%. More details coming.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:06:25 AM EST
Parties from RAI:

FORZA ITALIA 20.0-23.0
ALLEANZA NAZIONALE 10.5-12.5
UDC 5.0-7.0
LEGA NORD / MPA 3.0-5.0
DC / NUOVO PSI 0.0-2.0
ALTERNATIVA SOCIALE 0.0-1.5
ALTRI CDL (1) 0.5-2.5
TOTALE CDL 45.0-49.0

L'ULIVO 30.5-33.5
RIFONDAZIONE COMUNISTA 5.0-7.0
LA ROSA NEL PUGNO 2.5-4.0
COMUNISTI ITALIANI 1.5-3.0
VERDI PER LA PACE 2.0-3.0
ITALIA DEI VALORI 2.0-3.5
UDEUR 1.0-2.5
ALTRI UNIONE (2) 1.5-3.0
TOTALE UNIONE 50.0-54.0

TOTALE ALTRO (3) 0.0-1.0

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:36:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks promising for now. But in five minutes I'm off to witness a political rally here in Budapest.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:48:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exit poll reported on BBC World:

CdL 45-49%
Union 50-54%

Also reported the exit poll was wrong last time.

by GreatGame2 (fishy_logic_at_yahoo.co.uk) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:09:15 AM EST
Do these exit poll results include projections for the expatriate vote? If not how significant is that?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:37:13 AM EST
There are no exit polls for expatriate vote. Over 42% voted as of last information.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:38:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The NEXOS poll apparently doesn't: check the regional results.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Link to live tv broadcast on Italian election results and commentary:

http://www.corriere.it/

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:44:35 AM EST
When do they expect to have first propper results?
by PeWi on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:48:15 AM EST
Partial results should start at 17:00 h.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:54:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks.... exciting - I love election nights when chang is in the air....
by PeWi on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:55:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I have been working with Chinese Acrobats for the recent MoonFestival, so it is NOT a spelling mistake!
by PeWi on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is going to be a long afternoon then...

Do they report non-oficial results from each poll table by phone as soon as the counting is done? Or they have to get with the oficial act to a central station where is validated and reported?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Results are declared by the Minister of Interior in Rome. It's all very official and centralized.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:03:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How does the interior minister gets the results?

In spain there is a representative of the ministry in each poll who makes a phone call telling the ministry what the results of the poll table will be (the valid results are obtained three days later oficially).

I was wondering how the ministry gets the information? DO they have a representative in each poll station?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:06:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as I remember, the poll station has a ministry-nominated "president" that is responsible for the correct counting on the day. Once scrutiny has ended, he files all the required documents, including a summary sheet with the results, seals the poll boxes and brings them to a local council authority, all the while being escorted by police forces or military police ("Carabinieri"). The authority then aggregates the results and communicates them to the ministry. I don't know if he also calls the ministry or the local authority before actually carrying the documents.

All in all, it's probably one of the best and most efficient counting process in the world, because the results are always hotly contested so we have to make sure they are right. Irregularities can happen outside the polling station (and they do, especially in mafia-dominated southern areas) but they won't happen inside.

This time there's a change though, a few regions are experimenting with electronic voting. It would be interesting to see if these will bring the same sort of problems Diebold brought in the US (i.e. noticeable discrepancies between usually reliable exit-poll results and official results, public debunking of flawed security in the voting system, and widespread suspicion of substantial vote fraud).

by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:20:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The official results are forwarded by phone to the Interior Ministry in Rome, although there's gonna be a first this time: 36 m Euros were spent to transmit the data electronically via internet. This is considered a test and not 'official'. The hard copy of the election results of each commune is brought to Rome via motorbike by agents of the council police.

   

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:34:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Insert Eddie Izzard sketch about Italian people on scooters lasciviously saying "ciaaaaao"
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:38:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually this time the electronic results are official. In the last two elections they were experimental.

There has been a good deal of controversy over this affair in the past weeks. There were possibilities of fraud. A police investigation a few days ago found two telephone accesses to the root directory within the Ministry and apparently remedied it.

In the best of cases the whole affair is just a rip-off for crony contracts.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Btw, what is Prodi's position on the troops in Iraq?
Will he be bringing the remaining ones home?
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what he said, yes, though we'd need de Gondi to say whether he included any 'nuances'.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:26:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was a flat out promise, may be not his first action but up there on the list.

At this point it doesn't seem likely he'll be Council President.

B also promised it but his promises are written on water.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:20:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prodi should issue a statement around 18:00 here in Rome. Crowd gathering in Piazza Santi Apostoli.

The party starts officially at 21:00.

Everybody is invited.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:00:39 AM EST
Isn't it a little bit too early?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:03:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What can I say? That's what the news dispatch says.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:04:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Je je je jejejejeje

Well, let's say that they are confident... this should be good news!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:07:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The centre-right is currentrly trying to spin the "divided country" meme, I can clearly read their minds! :) Lega Nord looks to me as being almost wiped out, this would be great news.

Btw, Enrico LaLoggia from ForzaItalia is already horse-whispering: "Anche se solo dai primi dati, emerge che la Casa delle Libertà in Sicilia è di gran lunga in vantaggio sul centrosinistra".
(trad.: "Even just from first results, it's clear that [the centre-right] in Sicily is clearly doing better than the centre-left.")
Because everybody knows that Sicily's results are a reliable indication of where the "heavy votes" (i.e. criminal organizations') are still going... In 2001 ForzaItalian "owned" 100% of sicilian representatives.

by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:36:16 AM EST
A second Nexus exit poll confirms the original projection. Massimo D'Alema declared that he expects a victory of historical importance.

Piazza SS. Apostoli is almost full. Prodi is expected to speak at 18:30 together with Piero Fassino and Rutelli.

Berlusconi is expected to arrive in Via Plebiscito at about the same time about two hundred yards away.

Very partial projections  (5 to 6% of total) on voter participation indicates nearly 83%, an inversion of the tendency. Contrary to the Right's expectations, massive turnout was only in traditional Left regions.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:53:27 AM EST
First results are in in the Senate with roughly three percent counted. It is roughly 55(left)-44(right)

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate is quite well advanced. 1 milion votes already reported.

It is still roughly

55 % Prodi
44 % Berlusconi

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Regions indicate 17 regions should go to the Union. Only three certain for the Cdl- Lombardia, Veneto and Sicilia. Three regions, Piemonte, Puglia and Friuli Venezia Giulia are neck-to-neck.

Official results are running "late".

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:09:32 AM EST
Don't say it is over until is over.... Things are getting closer, luckily not very much.

With roughly 3.5 million votes counted (from roughly 37 million, Senate)

53.5 % (Prodi)
46 % (Berlusconi)

Let's hope it does not get any closer.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:38:46 AM EST
If we get a deadlock, the centre-right should have the decency to admit it's the fault of their return to the proportional system, and we should vote again. Somehow I doubt they'll do that though... </snark>
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like today is going to be a nice day. The Left winning in Italy, and the CPE dying in France.
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:55:10 AM EST
It is 12 million votes counted

51.3 % Prodi
48 % Berlusconi.

Porjections are still at 50-49....but there is a good chance Berlusconi will win the Senate.... I am really sorry to spoil the party right now. I am really worried.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:00:07 PM EST
Can you guys please put the latest results at the bottom of this diary? This way it is easier to navigate. Also, I understand the latest projections were that Prodi would lose the Senate? What is the current count? Is Prodi up by 150K or down?

Thanks!

Mikhail from SF

by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:04:07 PM EST
The coalition behind Prodi is up in the Senate race by just 105,000 at the moment, but even that is likely to melt away...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a link I could follow that has these updates changed periodically? I could not find the right page in the main diary link. Then again, it could be my lack of knowledge of Italian :)


Mikhail from SF
by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:14:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I couldn't either, it's very badly organised and low bandwidth. I used Ritter's link, Corriere della Sera really did a good service.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am following repubblica.it.

The lead of Prodi is null.

There are 10 million votes left.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:22:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nexus prediction doesn't make any sense (maybe CdS replaced the sides?): 49.5 : 50 House and 52.2 : 49.8 Senate.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you have comments set to embedded display? I do, and for me posting at the bottom would make it more confusing.

You can check the results live for yourself: House, Senate. I post results at around round numbers.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The question really has to be asked at this point:

Was there vote tampering?

When a result goes against opinion polls, exit polls, and the betting markets, one really has to wonder. Personally, I don't think betting markets as strongly against Berlu could be wrong. I will always assume this election was in some ways doctored.

What do you think the reaction with in Italy itself will be to this proposition?

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:09:05 PM EST
----right now, that almost anything that sounds vaguely feasible - in a connect the 20 dots, what do you see?  kind of way - turns my mind into a turmoil.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:15:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The resutls in sicily are awful.. they are the worst resutls of the left in years!!! 15 point behind (last election was around 10 %).

This does not mean anything. The left just did not vote?

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:28:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In other words, only serves to reinforce the prospect of fraud. Sicilly is run by the mob, which has not insignificant ties to Berlu. Very skeptical.
by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not so fast. Most of Messina and Catania is not yet counted.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, meant Palermo and Catania. Big cities, expect the metropolitan areas to (a) be counted for longer, (b) vote more Left.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:19:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Been asking the same question. According to Spiegel Online Exit Polls indicate a Prodi win.

Polls Show Prodi Ousting Berlusconi

Exit polls released on Monday afternoon show Romano Prodi beating incumbant Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi with a majority in both houses of parliament.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reuters: Election swings Berlusconi's way: pollster

ROME (Reuters) - The result of Italy's general election hung in the balance on Monday, as one pollster said partial returns suggested Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi might win a shock majority in both houses of parliament.

A second pollster predicted that center-left challenger Romano Prodi would just hold off Berlusconi, leaving the result of the two-day vote on a knife-edge.

Exit polls at the end of the two-day ballot said Prodi had won the election, taking between 50-54 percent of the vote. But as the count proceeded, Nexus pollsters said the center-right was advancing and could eventually end up the winner.

Center-left leaders reacted with dismay and disbelief as the polls changed direction, revealing a country split in two after five years of Berlusconi government.

Center-right leaders were cautious, saying they would wait for official results due later on Monday before commenting.

Nexus said that on the basis of its analysis of returns six hours after polls closed, the center-right was on course to win 158 of the 315 Senate seats up for grabs.

What does this shift mean. Has there been tampering or have Exit polls become meaningless?

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:53:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The polls were wrong... or well there have been some tampering. But I doubt it. In Italy there are paper ballots.

I think polls did not count on two or three very bad showings of the left in sicily and la Lombardie... the results there are killing Prodi. So if you want to look for irregualrities, try there. But I doubt it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The senate is a tie. this means that the reuslt goes down to each region. It will all depend ont he last vote, on the last precinct.

The left-wing parties close to 3% must cross it otherwise we ahve lsot the senate.

Regarding the camer: It is bascially won by the coalition that gets more votes. this is why the total senate results is important. It is an excellent guide to which party will get the camera.

Right now, Prodi lead by by 100 kvotes with 11 million ovtes to count.

It looks really bad right now.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:16:52 PM EST
Things are different.

 Prodi will get more seats in the Senate than are assigned by the bonus rule applicable to the "favorite party coalition", because his coalition scored a higher percentage in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna (more than 60%), which by far out-doe the number of administravely distributed extra seats.

In Süd Tirol the bonus rule does not apply at all. Prodi will not have to share the seats with Berlusconi. There the "winner takes it all" rule applies.

The journalists and 'pundits' didn't do their homework.

Coglioni.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:37:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used to think that the Irish PR system was an entertaining evening's statistical nightmare, but this makes us look like amateurs.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the rule of the regional 3% makes the number of Prodi heavily down if I am not mistaken. These parties would need to get some extra votes that I do not see.

Indeed Prodi does not need the 200 kvotes to get the Senate itself, small parties in his coalition need much more less, but if you count the ratio among parties it will give you this number, roughly, for the total coalition so that the small parties cross the 3%.

Please, if I am mistaken, tell me. I will have to make a comment on my comment down about Prodi losing the senate.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aaargh.

I so very, very much want to get rid of Mr. Coglioni.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prodi has no lead.

It is a complete tie with 10 million votes to go.

Senate is probably lost... if we lost the total count of votes we lose the camera and no new election will be needed. Berlusconi would have won

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any reason Prodi's lead has shrunk throughout the night? Is it the way each region is reporting the results? Do conservative areas report later? It just seems so odd to me, because it is exactly what we see here in the States.

Mikhail from SF
by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:28:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, southern and northern conservatites regions have reported late all night. They are catching up.. I am afraid they are still slightly behind. We can lose big time.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am sorry to report, but this is pseudo-oficial.
With 9 million votes to go and conservative areas undereported Berlusconi has won the senate. Berlusconi leads by 20 kvotes even when some areas are udnerreported. given the regional distribution we woudl need around 250 kvotes more even with conservative regions still lacking.The chances to win back the senate in the next hour are very low.

We can only hope to win the Camera by winning the total vote, and this looks increasingly difficult. Right now Prodi will probably lose the total vote but it is not at all certain.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:44:24 PM EST
Don't believe in the orchestrated chaos of incompetent 'pundits'. They don't know shit.

Mamma mia, in moments like this I praise Saint Stalin that he gave us a communist party with a Bolscevic discipline.

The incoming information from the territory which is collected and evaluated by the proletarian guards of the ex-communist party in Via Botteghe Oscure (literally 'obscure shops') is very different.

Prodi will win both chambers.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:55:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the votes abroad? They are barely counted as yet, I wonder if you have some unofficial information on that.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please be right.. but Prodi is headed to lose the total number of votes and therefore both house and senate as we speak (with the vote count of 27 million votes)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]