Article Deconstruction (vol. 7): "Berlusconi triumphant as he wins narrow victory"

by Jerome a Paris
Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:53:52 AM EST

Of course, this is not the headline today, but I hane the sneaky feeling that it would be if the vote had not been 49.80%-49.73% for the left, but for the right. Instead, we get:

Prodi claims victory as Italy faces paralysis

Not "Prodi wins", but Prodi claims victory, despite the fact that the article quotes the final, official results for the lower chamber.

And "Italy faces paralysis", because, what else, it has a coalition of the left in government. Would Italy have "faced paralysis because of the presence of Lega Norde in the Berlusconi government?


That article is from the FT, on the front page of their internet edition, but I suspect it will be representative of what we should expect elsewhere:

Italy faced political paralysis on Tuesday morning after the closest election result in the nation’s modern history showed that voters were split almost exactly in half between left and right.

Well, one side won. How's that for paralysis?

Romano Prodi, the former European Commission president, and his centre-left opposition won control of parliament’s lower house by taking 341 seats against 277 seats for the centre-right government of Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister. Another 12 seats remained to be allocated.

Uncertainty surrounded the outcome in the Senate, the upper house, which under Italy’s constitution is just as powerful as the lower house.

The centre-right had 155 seats, the centre-left 154, six seats were still to be allocated, and another seven are held by “senators for life” - distinguished public figures appointed by Italy’s head of state.

At the very least it appeared clear that Mr Prodi, if asked to form a government, would have too little control of the Senate to implement a serious economic reform programme. He would be completely dependent on his hardline communist and other radical allies for his Senate majority.

You see, the only goal of any government these days is "serious economic reform" which, as we know now, is just a code for "pay workers less, give pensioners and unemployed people smaller benefits, and make them all work harder so that companies can make better profits".

But would a narrow majority for Berlusconi lead to stories that he "has little control"? No, you'd have the breathless paragraphs about his unexpected last minute victory, crowing about his bet on the voting rules which paid off handsomely, and, of course, deeper meaning found that another major Bush ally won...

A similar problem of parliamentary arithmetic bedevilled Mr Prodi’s 1996-98 government and eventually contributed to his downfall at communist hands.

A fresh election, possibly in October, therefore looks a distinct possibility. But Mr Prodi made clear, after the lower house’s result was declared in the early hours of Tuesday, that he thought he had the right to take over as prime minister.

Another option facing Italy is to install a non-party, technocratic government with as much bipartisan support as possible. Such a government would be given the task of managing the economy and maintaining fiscal discipline before Italians went to the polls again.

Let's try to ignore the results of this election, and say that another one is inevitable. Who do these people think they are? Again, do you really think they'd call for new elections if Berlusconi had the same narrow win?

And of course, the only task of a caretaker government would be "maintaining fiscal discipline". That's not partisan or a policy choice, of course...

But the thing is - there should not be commies in government, even if they won! Again can you imagine calls for a broad coalition government if Berlusconi has won, however narrowly?

Still another complication on the horizon is that Italy must choose a new head of state to replace Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, whose seven-year term expires next month. The choice rests with members of parliament and representatives of Italy’s regions, and it may prove difficult to achieve a consensus between centre-right and centre-left after the acrimony of the election campaign.

First of all, however, both sides must accept the election results, and there were some signs on Tuesday that this might not be a smooth process.

Paolo Bonaiuti, Mr Berlusconi’s spokesman, suggested that the centre-right did not necessarily accept Mr Prodi’s claim of victory.

“Neither side reached 50 per cent [in the lower house] and the margin is under 25,000 votes. Such a tiny difference necessitates a scrupulous check of the count and the tally sheets,” Mr Bonaiuti said.

Mr Prodi’s margin of victory in the lower house race was a wafer-thin 49.80 to 49.73 per cent. According to official interior ministry figures, a mere 25,000 seats out of almost 40m ballots cast separated his forces from those of Mr Berlusconi.

Mr Prodi won substantially more seats in the lower house thanks to an electoral reform, introduced last year by the Berlusconi government, under which the winning coalition was guaranteed extra seats no matter how small its majority in terms of votes.

Again, it all sounds factual, but the order in which it is presented tends to validate the claims of the right that the left may not actually have won: the narrow victory margin is provided as input AFTER the claim that a recount is needed, thus giving credence to it, and the comment on the voting system goes on to make the left's victory in the chamber appear less real than it is, a result of electoral shenanigans (without any commentary that that reform was introduced by Berlusconi precisley to try to turn a narrow victory, the best they could hope, into a stable majority). But the system was put in place by Berlusconi precisley to give a clear majority. Now that it has delivered exactly what it was meant to do, it's electoral trickery?

The uncertainty helped drive Italian stocks lower on Tuesday morning with the MIB 30 down 0.8 per cent to 38,392 in early trading.

Mediaset, the Italian broadcaster owned by Mr Berlusconi, was the only gainer on the index as it appeared the tight result would leave any new coalition without the parliamentary strength to push through promised promised reforms of the media market. The shares gained 2.2 per cent to €10.28.

Yes, the verdict of the money men to finish with. Italy lost but Berlusconi still won...

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I'm losing the will to swim upstream again.

The fucker lost despite owning all the media and being a slimy little shit and running the country further into the ground for his own benefit. Would the FT ever get a clue? Prodi is pretty centre left. It's not like they just elected afew and DoDo.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:59:36 AM EST
DoDo and I would like to make it clear that, if we were not elected, it was because we were not candidates.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:53:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why the hell not?! I'd change nationalities to vote for either one of you.

Pogo: We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by d52boy on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:57:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo, I think we may have the beginnings of a political party...

;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:03:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would you consider forming a coalition with the authoritative left, represented by NearlyNormal and myself?
by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:05:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing personal, but authoritarianism is like, so-o-o-o petit-bourgeois.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:18:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do we have here, rebellion? Your flight leaves for Novosibirsk in two hours, comrade. Once you get there you will be assigned to a camp in which you will work 30 hours a week, with full benefits and 6 week holidays. We will break you, you'll see.
by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:34:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your Stalino-nostalgia would be picturesque and even refreshing, my friend, were it not so hopelessly mired in a sclerotic past the people is busily forgetting on its way to Western plastic goods and sausages in supermarkets.

(Oh, by the way, DoDo just took over the GPU, so you're in trouble... Just thought I'd tip you off... ;))

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:28:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Socialist Nutters And Revolutionary Kooks - SNARK.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:56:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right. People will call us the snarkistas. They will associate us with Lewis Carroll and feel warm and fuzzy about us. We will win.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:21:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:02:11 AM EST
this is one of the top. Superb!!

Some of the others articles are so obvious... but no this one.. this was not obvious at all...

Levi-Strauss will be proud of you... I am indeed... (see I cmapoare myself with L-S... that's subtle).
Now, seriously. Excellent, really good.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:29:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another triumph of analysis and common sense, Jerôme.

Merci!--or should I say, Grazie!

Pogo: We have met the enemy, and he is us.

by d52boy on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:55:12 AM EST
FT, the Fox network of the European Right...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:55:28 AM EST
If only it were just Fox . . . .

Pogo: We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by d52boy on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:58:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that is a but harsh. There is a lot of quality stuff in the paper, and a decent diversity of viewpoints. But all the more reason to hold them accountable for unwarranted assumptions or prejudices

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:50:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Quote:
"...the only goal of any government these days is "serious economic reform" which, as we know now, is just a code for "pay workers less, give pensioners and unemployed people smaller benefits, and make them all work harder so that companies can make better profits".
---
Right on target!

Quote:

http://www9.sbs.com.au/theworldnews/transcript.php#

Berlusconi:

"I am not blind back to running my companies, I am not going back to business."

He has made it clear that he really isn't interested in leaving the political arena and that he intends to stay with the parliament.

by vbo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:21:12 AM EST
Thanks, Jerome.  I actually expect more from the FT than, say, the Economist.  Ugh.  The future is beginning to look like the fruits of lowered expectations.
by andrethegiant on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:34:07 AM EST
And just so we know the left has won:

"We have to immediately send a message to the markets, to whomever wants to invest in Italy, that the country is not going to fall apart," said the culture minister, Rocco Buttiglione.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:02:41 AM EST
The markets fell yesterday when they thought Prodi mightn't win ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:03:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First of all you would have a very hard time convincing me that the Western European press, including the right wing press, is biased towards Berlusconi - from what I can tell they can't stand the guy and were rooting for his defeat.  Secondly, while I do think that the different headline would be the one you suggest, there's a perfectly innocent explanation - expectations. During the run up to the elections polls consistently predicted a narrow but clear victory by the left, the exit polls said that that is what probably happened as well. Then there was a period of uncertainty followed by the actual results: a wafer thin majority. So the left did a bit worse than expected, Berlusconi a bit better. If he had managed to pull out a victory that would have been the big news - hence the hypothetical headline. Lower down there would, I assure you, have been plenty of speculation as to his ability to govern given the narrowness of his victory. There was certainly a lot of that with Berlusconi's much clearer victory in the previous elections. Finally, paralysis and chaos - it is a serious danger given the heterogenity of the coalition which from what I can tell includes everything from center right types who can't stand Berlusconi to the very hard left. So all in all, nothing to get upset about. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
by MarekNYC on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:55:46 AM EST
<blockquote>from what I can tell they can't stand the guy and were rooting for his defeat</blockquote>
No, they were extremely happy to have him in charge as a perennial source of silly international diatribes and useless gossip, while Italy was put "back in its place" as a de-facto colony of northern Europe. Their critiques were just too easy to write. Now they'll have to work a bit harder :)

Just a sidenote on the "paralysis and chaos": given the angry reactions fron the right, if there's going to be trouble it will certainly come from those quarters more than from the left, as people do remember what Bertinotti obtained by rocking the boat the first time around (that is, nothing). Lega Nord did the same mistake with the first Berlusconi-led government, and they were very cautious not to repeat the mistake the second time. You can expect the same from centre-left parties, especially seeing these results. There will be noise and "ado" all over while defining the government,  as it always happens, but after that, I expect a few years of quiet work.

by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:48:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd add "de facto colony of the United States" along with GB. In foreign policy and Euro bashing the two go hand in hand. B has always said he is more American than the Americans and like any good paranoid "he knows what America needs and wants before America does."

Magical thought goes a long way with demagogues.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 02:01:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know what you mean, and I disagree.

The comments about paralysis, about the need for a caretaker government, about the risk for "serious economic reform" and the other points I make would NOT have been made about Berlusconi. Yes you'd have had comments about the unexpected come back, but not these aspertions on his victory.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:31:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've crossposted the diary now: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/11/184211/149

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"A similar problem of parliamentary arithmetic bedevilled Mr Prodi's 1996-98 government and eventually contributed to his downfall at communist hands."

There is no problem this time because

  1. He has a large majority due to the electoral premium- there was no such premium in 1996;
  2. Prodi has a solid coalition based on a pact between parties.

Refondazione Communista WAS NOT PART OF THE 1996 COALITION. It offered external support. The Prodi government fell on a confidence vote on the annual economic bill by one vote. Rifondazione was given liberty of vote by their House leader and the party split over the vote.

This time Rifondazione will have ministers as it did in the D'Alema government (and very good ones, I add)
and will stick to the coalition pact.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 02:11:33 AM EST
This time Rifondazione will have ministers as it did in the D'Alema government (and very good ones, I add)
and will stick to the coalition pact.

And, hopefully, Prodi's government will too on the economy.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 12:13:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Narrow victory? Nah, they'll get by. One year in the eighties I beleive it was, a swedish election ended with an allocation of 150 seats in parliament for the left and 150 for the right. We're still here. OK, a lot of decisions had to be made by lottery ticket but we managed. :)

(After this infamous period in swedish government for the next term seats in parliament was augmented by one in order to ensure this little 'episode' wouldn't repeat itself)

by high5 on Wed Apr 12th, 2006 at 07:42:10 AM EST


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