The precedent

Favorable polls made then governing Fidesz complacent (they forgot that in the then reigning climate of fear some centre-left voters would refuse to answer pollsters), and the first round results came as a cold shower: the Right clearly behind on party list votes, and trailing in most individual election districts (mixed election system!).

In Hungary, in election districts where no candidate got 50%, the first two or three candidates remain standing for a second round. In such systems second-round participation is obviously lower - but in 2002, Fidesz achieved an unprecedented 3% increase, with an all-out voter mobilisation effort (though they still, narrowly, lost).

One element of the (successful) mobilisation was an inpromptu election rally before Parliament, possibly the largest since 1989, with convenient live coverage by the state television then under control, and with a convenient estimate of 1.5-2 million attendants by a police also under control.

A fantastic number because (a) only about a tenth of that would have room on the area even if tightly filled up, (b) because a lot of flags waved, it wasn't even tightly filled up, (c) it would have taken half a day for such a mass to arrive and again to leave through available streets, (d) the number presupposes half of all Fidesz voters and all their children attending, most of them from the countryside. And (e) there was a comparison.

The pre-precedent

On 19 September 1992, there was a mass protest against the then right-wing government's nationalism and attempts to limit media freedom (with a younger DoDo among the attendants).

The closing event was held on the same spot (place before the Parliament building) as the Fidesz event a decade later, and occupied the exact same area. There were no flags and there was only one single protest sign, so it may have been even more people.

But no police estimate was ever released of the final event numbers. Earlier stages of this rally were estimated at 35,000 and 70,000. Later calculations arrived at around 120,000 for the 'uncounted' final event.

The last polls

No polls are allowed to be released in the last eight days before voting, so on Friday five pollsters came out simultaneously. It seems now that MSzP will have more votes than Fidesz, but the latter will win in more individual election districts. MSzP's lead on list votes would be large enough to out-balance that in three polls.

Only one more party seems to have a chance at passing the 5% hurdle: the (neo)liberal governing coalition partner SzDSz. If they get in, the incumbents' victory (would be a first since 1990!) would be certain, but two polls see them just failing and the rest just above.

Older diaries on Hungary:

1. After a bizarre press vs. politicians court case, an introduction of parties & history since 1989.
2. The workings of non-issue-based politics: the tragicomic double referendum on barring hospital privatisations and giving neighbouring countries' ethnic Hungarians double citizenship.
3. Bush and Hungary: why the nominal centre-left (now governing) is pro-Bush and the nominal centre-right opposition anti-Bush.
4. Campaign season opens - half a year early.
5. Further in the campaign, October polls and nonsensical rhetoric (how can you give preferential treatment to both the elites and the poor?)
6. The juiciest of the many storm-in-the-bathtub scandals: Mata Hari in Budapest
7. A foray into history (not much to do with recent Hungarian politics, but some further perspective for the debate on Turkey's accession to the EU).
8. European Dream: where would Hungarians like to live?
9. Hungarian Orange (no relation to the Ukrainian version): on a clever opposition poster campaign and its contrast with reality.
10. On another poster campaign by the same party - how to outsource negative campaign, and how it can be made to backfire.
11. Of Socialists and Presidents.
12. On the Oscar-winning film director who was The Mephisto Behind Mephisto.
13. The Inverted Example of Spinning Jobless Statistics: doing the exact opposite of what the Bushites did.
14. Mephisto And Informants Update.
15. Non-partisan corruption, meta-corruption.
16. Another foray into history: March 15, 1848 revolution.
17. Six Weeks of Insanity: how a national celebration turns political freak show.
18. Article Deconstruction: how a Western paper (here: DER SPIEGEL) twists facts to fit Western stereotypes.
19. A Salvo In The Foot, or how to mobilise voters for the other side.