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Peak Oil: E85 will win out in US?

by wchurchill Fri Apr 28th, 2006 at 04:46:12 PM EST

(I should caveat these comments by stating I am a novice in the subject of oil, much of my knowledge coming from Jerome's many articles.  But I follow investing, and thought the intersection of these two topics might be interesting to the peak oil dialogue at ET.)

I was watching an investment cable show and heard the prediction that E85 (ethanol) will win out in the alternate fuel race in the US--that surprised me.  The industry analyst (sorry, missed his name) said that there are currently 5 million vehicles in the US with "flex fuel" capability.  From the Alternate Fuel Vehicle Institute,

E85 is an alternative fuel blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. E85 can only be used in so-called flex fuel vehicles (FFVs), which can run either E85, gasoline, or any blend of the two fuels. Drivers may fill the tank with whatever fuel is available.
The analyst predicted that E85 will dominate, followed by hybrids and then diesels.  He says diesel suffers from Americans still having an image of diesels as stinky (a technical term I guess), not environmentally friendly, and slow.


Thanks to Jerome, we have been very aware of these issues.  The investment community has been awakening to these issues for a while now, and while almost everyone is aware of the peak oil debate today, it seems to me that only now are the implications of this hitting the more "mainstream investment" news media.  The implications for the auto industry, and also for fuel delivery channels (gas stations and the supporting logistics channels) are of course enormous.  Automakers face chaos of choice in alternative fuels
With rising gas prices, more customers will turn to other types of fuel, experts predict
The OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) are after a single bullet -- a one-size-fits-all powertrain solution," said Chris Cowland, technical director of AVL Powertrain Engineering Inc. The company helps carmakers design new engines. "But in reality that's not going to happen."
The panel, composed of engine experts from AVL, Honda and BMW, and fuel experts from Shell and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, said the future of the automobile will involve gasoline, hybrid, diesel and ethanol, one panel of engineers concluded. That will happen within two to five years. After that, chaos will reign in the world's fuel markets, they predicted.

<snip>

"We're going through a paradigm shift," said Jeff Alson, a senior policy analyst with the EPA's air quality office. "In a $60 (a barrel) oil world, I think you'll see a lot more fuels become competitive. And there will be an array of powertrains available."
The future "gas" station might even sell hydrogen, eventually. But, the experts decided, by 2015 North American fuel stations will probably offer as many different kinds and grades of fuel as an upscale deli does olive oil.
The high price of future oil and the lack of a clear alternative is going to force automakers to build a variety of powertrains so consumers can decide for themselves what they can afford.

You may recall that we had a diary here, can't recall who wrote it, 6 or 7 months ago that pointed out a number of venture capital backed startups that were investing in the alternative fuel area.  I haven't seen any data on this yet, but with investors becoming more and more convinced that the price of oil might actually stabilize at $60/barrell (likely eventually Jerome's $100), this of course means that higher cost alternative fuels, and all of the infrastructure required to support them, may now be justified.  That will (maybe has) open the floodgates of investment dollars coming into this area.  Imagine the somewhat boring area of retail gasoline (gas stations) turning to look anything like Starbucks (forgive the hyperbole).  But the opportunity for dramatic shifts in automotive market shares, for new logistic channels.  It looks like the investment side of alternate approaches may be starting to happen.  At the same time, if the unlikely event happened of the price of oil falling back into the $30--40/barrel, this could quell that investment enthusiasm significantly, and lead to big losses for those that moved ahead--I'm definitely not predicting that, just giving some flavor to the thinking of "early stage" investors.

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Is that ethanol and biodiesel will always cost more than petroleum-based gasoline, diesel and natural gas. This is because of the massive fossil-fuel inputs to crops in this age of industrial/agricultural 'green revolution'.

The US's ethanol development is being fed with massive subsidies in both farming and ethanol production.

by capslock on Fri Apr 28th, 2006 at 05:19:52 PM EST
do you think it might be worth it though, to 1) have the US not be so reliant on the Middle East, and 2) perhaps there are environmental benefits?--I have no idea if the latter is true.

and btw, I have know horse in this race, I just hope we can develop alternative fuels without the disruptions that so many have predicted.

by wchurchill on Fri Apr 28th, 2006 at 05:28:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suggest that you parse
This is because of the massive fossil-fuel inputs to crops in this age of industrial/agricultural 'green revolution'.
again, and think about how it implies no substantial reduction in dependence on foreign oil.

The Euro will outlivebury us all --- Jean-Claude Juncker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Apr 28th, 2006 at 06:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe a good idea to cagch up with prior discussions on biofuels including the interesting Peak Sugar thread...

lest we have to do all those dance steps again...

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Fri Apr 28th, 2006 at 06:14:04 PM EST
thanks to you and migeru, and I will catch up on these diaries.  I missed them.   my interest to this point, other than following Jerome's diaries on oil prices and trends, has simply been watching the level of investment that flows into these new opportunities.  but I didn't intend to prove so quickly the accuracy of my opening paragraph:
(I should caveat these comments by stating I am a novice in the subject of oil, much of my knowledge coming from Jerome's many articles.  But I follow investing, and thought the intersection of these two topics might be interesting to the peak oil dialogue at ET.)
by wchurchill on Fri Apr 28th, 2006 at 10:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My thanks to capslock, deander and migeru for (gently I might add) pointing out my lack of knowledge on the previous discussions of bioenergy.  Based upon the great diaries that I had missed on this, it certainly does appear that this set of solutions are not going to be winners.  (Unless of course the US foolishly subsidizes the ethanol project, which might help a few farmers and investors, but clearly doesn't move the ball down the field, according to the science in these diaries.)

But, I think as the above three recognize, my diary was not intended to attach to any "horse", but rather to point out a change in the investment community to backing alternative fuels.  (My title may have been poorly chosen, because as I said in the diary, an industry analyst was betting/pushing ethanol as the winner--just sold my stock! (only kidding--I didn't have any stock here)).

I do think though, based on the reading that I do on the investment front, that there has been a significant shift in thinking over the past 6 months or so.  I hate to repeat my diary, but in a nutshell, if investors believe that the price of oil will be at $60/barrel or higher, it makes many alternatives practical.  And of course, for all of us, I think having tons of money plunge into investments in alternate fuels is very positive--the bad investments like it appears ethanol will be will fail, but hopefully there are winners in the other opportunities.  (Early stage investment capital works that way--if there is a need, an unsolved problem and potential solutions, people that are willing to invest a lot of money with the hope of huge rewards, but the understanding they may lose everything they invested, will bet tons of money on the various solutions.)  

And in the same market oriented way of thinking, higher oil prices should, if economic theory holds, reduce consumption per capita--though a growing India and China will offset this.

Frankly, I wish that there was more of a certainty that oil would stay above $60/barrel,,,,because then new businesses, and investors that risk their money on new ideas, would feel they have a target to shoot at.  if oil were to fall back to lower prices, it would be a big blow to the new funds coming into this area.  It would cut back the beginning of risk capital going into this critical area.

So here is to higher oil prices--except $57/barrel or so at the end of the year so I might rejoice drinking Jerome's awarded bottle of wine, because I think that was my bet.

by wchurchill on Sat Apr 29th, 2006 at 01:59:30 AM EST
The big American Ag companies, ADM, Monsanto, Cargill will move to own the entire US ethanol and biosiesel market in the US. I think it is a no-risk situation for them because of the massive subsidies. I wonder if their stock price already reflects this?
by capslock on Sat Apr 29th, 2006 at 11:26:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just posted a comment in another story by Jerôme (about gas), with a press release from oilcos investing in gas-to-liquids plants: basically with existing technologies you can make synthetic diesel fuel from non-oil fossil fuels (gas or coal), and as you noticed, big money is going into these projects.

Thermal Depolymerization, using biomass feedstock (which is largely closing the fossil fuel cycle, as agricultural biomass is now gas-fertilized), also yields synthetic diesel. So basically, diesel has a head start on E85 or whatever (if proponents of CTL/GTL are not liars, synthetic diesel should be cleaner than any diesel now on the market in the US or Europe).

Pierre
by Pierre on Sun Apr 30th, 2006 at 05:58:23 PM EST


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