If the US attacks Iran - then the Iranians will exercise their right of retaliation against US forces in the region, whether in the Gulf, in Iraq or in Kuwait. They have no reason not to, as a failure to do so will only invite further attacks.

Given the population to oil production ratio, and relations with the West, I don't think that thzat is a sign of worse management relative to other Gulf countries.

I know that he cannot really negotiate with the US; but he is not showing any sign that he is actually trying to negotiate with the EU either.

But if the US is no party to a negotiation and looms further as a threat (military, sanctions, diplomatic, secret operations), negotiations wth the EU-3 (especially in the current let's-appease-both-sides mode) is worth little, don't you think? Also, there are negotiations with Russia.

(I agree on the rest, these were only two quibbles.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

Iran report of Holocaust-style badges questioned

The National Post is sending shockwaves across the country this morning with a report that Iran's Parliament has passed a law requiring mandatory Holocaust style badges to identify Jews and Christians.
But independent reporter Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli Middle East expert who was born and raised in Tehran, says the report is false.
"It's absolutely factually incorrect," he told The New 940 Montreal.
"Nowhere in the law is there any talk of Jews and Christians having to wear different colours. I've checked it with sources both inside Iran and outside."
"The Iranian people would never stand for it. The Iranian government wouldn't be stupid enough to do it."
Political commentator and 940 Montreal host Beryl Waysman says the report is true, that the law was passed two years ago.
"Jews should wear yellow strips, Christians red strips, because according to the Iranian mullahs, if a Mulsim shakes hands with a non-Muslim he becomes unclean."

The National Post cites Iranian expatriots living in Canada as its primary source on the story.

Also, the Simon  Wiesental Center (cited in the original article) has nothing up on its website.

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut

I don't think an Arab country can be used against Iran. Afghanistan seems possible.

Ahmadinjead is working his arab connections:

Syria:

DAMASCUS, May 18, 2006 (AFP) - Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki flew to Syria Thursday on an unannounced visit, and immediately went into a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad, a Syrian oficial said.

His visit was prompted by "developments in the region which require talks" between Iran and Syria, Mottaki said on arrival at Damascus airport, where he was welcomed by his Syrian counterpart, Walid al-Muallem.

There was no mention of the current international pressure on Syria to recognise the sovereignty of Lebanon. This culminated in a United Nations Security Council resolution on Wednesday calling on Damascus to establish formal diplomatic relations with Beirut and to demarcate their border. This prompted Damascus to claim interference it its affairs.

Mottaki arrived from Jordan, and will hold a press conference before returning to Iran

Lebanon:

Tehran, Iran, May 16 - Iran's hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic sought to expand its ties with Lebanon.

Ahmadinejad said that it was essential to develop Tehran-Beirut relations in every domain, according to a statement released by the Presidential Office.

He made the remarks in a meeting with Iran's new ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani.

United States official have accused Tehran of supporting rejectionist groups operating in Lebanon in an attempt to destabilise the Middle East.

In January, hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad travelled to Damascus to meet with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

At the end of the trip, Ahmadinejad defended al-Assad in the United Nations probe into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minster Rafiq Hariri.

A UN-appointed committee investigation into Hariri's assassination in 2005 found that senior Syrian leaders were directly involved.

Regional allies Iran and Syria are both accused by the United States of being state sponsors of terrorism.

Regarding the Iranian return strike, methinks you haven't considered one obvious defense line for Israelis: US airforce in Iraq.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

Western intelligence agencies are likely to speed up their estimates of when Iran could develop a nuclear weapon, so increasing the pressure on President George W. Bush to act against the Islamic republic, according to western officials and nuclear experts.

That said, I actually agree with you. I think that this government of Iran is vastly inefficient. They're ruining the country and they have no management skill. They cannot even manage the oil industry; they sometimes run out and have to import oil! Researching and producing a nuclear weapon seems beyond their current ability.

Nevertheless, I entitled this entry my worse nightmare. There are more rational arguments against attacking Iran and Iran's retaliation than in many other pre-war debates. But therein lies my fear -- rational arguments could go unnoticed...