Notes on the Iranian government

by Colman
Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:24:06 AM EST

As I fear that we're going to be writing about this for a while, I was looking through Wikipedia trying to work out how Iranian politics work.

The diagram below may be of interest, and the BBC have a nice analysis.


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Maybe you have talked about this at the gnomemot already...but how much power does the Iranian president hold in this government?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:29:55 AM EST
No power over the military. He's more-or-less a prime minister without the military or foreign affairs jurisdiction. This particular one had a hard time getting his cabinet appointed which doesn't say a lot for his power.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:33:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actual thoughts:

*The current President was elected on economic populism that he doesn't have the power to implement: thus the crazy talk.

* Iran isn't far from being pretty democratic: remove the vetting of candidates and the life appointment of the Supreme Leader and it would be doing a pretty good impression of a democracy.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:31:48 AM EST
Interestingly, I read (can't recall where...Cole?) that Iran is actually one of the more progressive of Moslem nations...the people are definitely quite Western...but don't push into a West vs Iran decision...that would backfire...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:39:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the diagram:
  • The Supreme Leader is appointed for life, but can be dismissed by the Assembly of Experts, which also elects him.
  • The Assembly of Experts is elected by the public from candidates vetted by the Council of Guardians
  • The Council of Guardians consists of 6 clerics appointed by the Supreme Leader and 6 Lawyers proposed by  the Judiciary and elected by parliament.
  • The head of the Judiciary is appointed by the Supreme Leader.
  • Member of parliament are elected by the people from candidates vetted by the council of guardians, which can also veto it.
Not of the American variety, but it seems to have a lot of "checks and balances".

It seems the system could unravel through the Assembly of Experts, which is seldom mentioned (unlike the Council of Guardians, which is mentioned often because of its vetting of candidates).

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:48:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant to mention the "circle of power": the Supreme Leader appoints the people who vet the candidates who elect him. If that goes the whole thing looks ok.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:50:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering that the Supreme Leader controls foreign policy, security, intelligence, and can dismiss the president, why does anyone pay attention to Ahmadinejad rather than to Khamenei?

Wikipedia: Ali Khamenei's foreign Policy

Ayatollah Khamenei is known for his radical anti-Western policies. He has repeatedly denounced the idea of talks with the United States. During and after the US-led war on Iraq, he was sharply critical of Washington's policies.[18] On the 2000 al-Quds Day Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for the destruction of Israel.[19]
The last reference is to this:
CNN: 2 million flood Times Square as U.S. greets year 2000 (January 1, 2000)
The Year 2000 arrived in Iran hours after millions took to the streets to protest Israel's control of Jerusalem, the city where Muslims believe Prophet Mohammed began his journey to heaven.

The demonstrations came on the last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which was declared "Al-Quds Day" in 1979. Al-Quds is the Arabic name for Jerusalem.

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for the destruction of Israel, saying it was the only way to solve the problems of the Middle East.



By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 10:04:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd love to see the actual translation of that speech too.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 10:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia: The Closed Loop of Power
According to current election laws, a body of 12 experts called the Guardian Council oversees and approves electoral candidates for most national elections in Iran. The majority of the members of this body are appointed by the Supreme Leader. According to the current law, this council vets also Assembly of Experts candidates, which in turn in supervise and elect the Supreme Leader, which ultimately creates a closed loop of power.

In addition, current elections law requires Assembly of Experts candidates to be religious mujtahids, which greatly narrows the potential field.

Neither of these two laws are mandated by the constitution and are ordinary laws passed by the Parliament or the Assembly of Experts, which therefore can theoretically be reversed. However, despite efforts of many political activists, it has proven to be practically impossible to do so until now.

Many Iranian reformists (including Abdollah Noori) consider this to be the core legal obstacle for a truly democratic system in Iran.



By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 11:14:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I personnally don't think the level of democracy in Iran is significantly lower than the United States:

  • US Supreme court justices are appointed for life, they can repel laws on such issues as the voting system (which can make a president from a man with a minority of votes)

  • The president gets sworn in on the bible, and religion plays an overwhelming role in policy-shaping, education, personal life of many inhabitants,

  • The general population gets indoctrinated by fox news and other brain-washing, ad-sponsored, pro-consumption media, instead of mullahs, but I guess their about as efficient at keeping them from getting "the big picture" of what goes on in their own country

So if eventually these two set off a war, it will be (in my view) an example of a war between two democracies. Now for the flaming ?

Pierre
by Pierre on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:58:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Alexander Hamilton (most notably among the "Founding Fathers") advocated a "President for life". After all, the US constitution was modelled after an ideal 18th century "enlightened monarch" government and human philosophical investigations of "perfect government" are not known for their imagination. It was George Washington's decision not to seek reelection to a third term that pretty much set in stone the current term limits [only FDR had the guts to defy tradition on that, and they hurriedly closed the loophole with a constitutional amendment after his death].

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 10:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would even go one step further, on the issue that has brought Iran to the forefront of international news ... Consider that:

  • Iran is about to have the bomb, and nothing will stop them from having it (an invasion will probably delay them, but short of a coalition broader than Desert Storm, the US will not be able to keep more than the coast and the Ormuz straits under control, so let's consider that the Iranian bomb endeavour is really unstoppable)

  • The Iranian goverment feels the nation's security is at stakes, with the US military present in all neighboring countries and on the other side of the gulf, except Pakistan but the present dictator is US-friendly in as much as he can keep his own population under control,

  • The Iranian people probably agrees to the fact that they are circled by the US, and that it is a threat, not an opportunity for freedom (arguably, it's mullah brainwashing them that the US is evil, but I tend to respect other nations views of the world as long as they don't threaten me personally, so I will assume that they are right in thinking they have nothing to win in trading mullahs for pepsi colahs...)

  • On the same trend, and again without any opinion poll to back me, I believe the Iranian people also support the bomb endeavour...



Having said so, I have some moral rectitude problems / logical problems with the policy of the West towards Iran:

First, the old stoician doctrine told us that to avoid great frustration in life, one should "desire what is unavoidable". Therefore, I think we should seriously start thinking about life with nuclear Iran (like Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, possibly North Korea...)

Second, I am deeply uncomfortable with the whole non-proliferation concept: established nuclear powers building elaborate legal constructs disguised as moral principles, that say no other nation has the right to build a similar nuclear deterrent arsenal ? It has always been nonsense to me, and now it is proven inefficient at that !

Dubya will keep saying the Iran campaign to come, is about regime change, war on terror, promoting democracy for a better world... But my position on this is much simpler: do we believe, at the deep of ourselves, that we can live in peace with Iran, keeping our nukes ready in a MAD posture like the cold war, while still trading (oil mostly) with them ?

If yes (my opinion), then just let them have the bomb, state clearly what bad moves will get them nuked (I'm from a country with a nuclear force, and I worked in it, so I may not be in the same "reality" as everybody on EP), be very respectful for each others' spheres of influence, and live with it. If Dubya want to start a disaster, let him go alone, we shouldn't even be taking this to the UN Security Council with him (I believe this is pretty much the realpolitik reasoning in Putin's mind, but I still find it the most consistent attitude).

If no, why ponder any longer ? nuking Iran now is the only option. Except it's a chain reaction...

Pierre
by Pierre on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 10:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If no, why ponder any longer ? nuking Iran now is the only option. Except it's a chain reaction...
Do you mean a chain reaction as in "US nukes Iran then others start nuking each other"?

I am more worried about "US nukes Iran then the Oil sector shuts down".

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 10:55:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a super-critical chain with more than just one consequence at each step, like "US nukes Iran an then:

a) Oil sector shuts down

b) China moves to Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei, Australia to secure Oil

c) Arab world goes mad

Then as a consequence of a):

a-a) Western economies go down...

And of b):

b-a) US nukes China

And of c):

c-a) US and Israel and India nuke half of the arab world

I will let you imagine the different permutations of the events unfolding, but in the ends there's something like 'Russia and China nuke each other' and 'Russia nukes US'. Hope nobody pays any attention to that museum-thing, Europe, when uploading coordinates in ICBMs. As I said previously, that leaves Villepin and Chirac with the question "how to stay on top all along"


Pierre
by Pierre on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 11:03:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just curious how you form these views on America.  What do you read that leads you to these opinions? Or maybe you've lived there and formed them from personal experience?

I guess the same questions on Iran?

by wchurchill on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 12:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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