***Temper tantrum

by Jerome a Paris
Thu Jul 20th, 2006 at 08:05:42 AM EST

It's been a bit frustrating for me to be away during the G8 summit as it was meant to discuss subjects that I know intimately (Russian gas and energy security) and that are prone to in my view erroneous and misleading coverage in the Western press. So I've decided to come out of my self imposed silence to react to a FT article, by Philip Stephens, whom I identify, rightly or wrongly, with the voice of the UK political establishment, and which I will presume reflects the common wisdom of these elites on the topic.

 


The west folds before Putin's bluff

Anyone who has sat around a poker table knows the feeling. You have been dealt a strong hand but the steely eyed fellow opposite keeps raising the stakes. Eventually, your nerve breaks. Even as your adversary scoops the pot you know in your heart it was a bluff. Pride demands you pretend otherwise.

Vladimir Putin is a leader who has been enjoying his winnings. For Mr Putin, the purpose of the St Petersburg summit was to reassert Russia's role as a global superpower. The task was made easy by the fact that his fellow leaders in the Group of Eight leading nations had folded their cards even before they reached the summit table. On one level, St Petersburg testifies to the inconsequential nature of the G8. On another, to the Russian president's skill in exploiting what might best be called the new international disorder.

The underlying theme is one of frustration, directed both at Putin for exerting his (undeserved) power, and our at own leaders, for failing to define and implement the energy strategy they should.

It reflects a number of assumptions and inconcistencies that I would like to flag, going throught this article line by line.

Back from fron page



In the absence of anything resembling a consensus on the Middle East, the leaders struggled to paper over the cracks. The Russian refusal to criticise Iran and Syria for their undoubted role in the conflagration in Lebanon sat alongside George W. Bush's simplistic mantra that all this is about the global war on terrorism. When France's Jacques Chirac said a statement released by the G8 leaders had called for a ceasefire, Mr Bush's aides insisted otherwise. Britain's Tony Blair by and large sided with Mr Bush and Israel. The message from all this to the combatants? Keep fighting.

I won't comment much on the Middle East bit other than to note that the jab about Bush's "simplistic mantra", and putting Bush, Israel and Blair in the same bag are probably the best criticism one can hope for here.


Just as they are divided on the Middle East, so western leaders have misread Mr Putin. There was a brief moment earlier this year when it seemed that the west's democracies might at least extract a small price for their attendance in St Petersburg. There were whispers that Mr Bush might even boycott the summit. Instead, they asked for nothing and were mocked in return by their host.

Sitting alongside Mr Bush, Mr Putin quipped that he was not interested in importing Iraqi-style democracy to Russia. Asked about corruption, the Russian leader offered a barb at Mr Blair's expense. Was the British prime minister not under investigation for his role in party funding?

For the record, I personally think that Russia is a lot more corrupt, and less democratic than the countries in the West, but our own levels of corruption and contempt for democratic processes are such that we are really not in a position to give any lessons to Putin or to be righteous on this topic. I find this a pity all round, but Putin's words are sadly well deserved.


Energy security was supposed to be at the heart of the deliberations. Instead, the final communique was another badly stitched compromise. For Russia, oil and gas are the essential instruments of its return to the global stage. For others around the summit table, energy is a scarce commodity. So why argue with one of the world's biggest suppliers? Better to settle on a few rhetorical bromides.

The problem is not one of "arguing". If energy is a scarce commodity, then either we use less of it or we have to deal with those able to provide us with our needs. "Dealing with" does not mean "ordering around" or "being sanctimonious to". It means listening to that provider, and in all likelihood taking into account what is said. And if we don't like it, then we can always go back to option one: use less energy.


In this, St Petersburg could be said to have been a triumph for those who count themselves members of the realist school of foreign policy. Their argument runs roughly as follows. Mr Putin has restored internal order to Russia while soaring energy prices have filled the Kremlin's coffers. Europe is ever more dependent on Russian gas. The US needs Moscow to help curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. So why get overexcited at Russia's steady drift from nascent democracy to authoritarian kleptocracy?

While the basic "realist" argument is correct, it is presented here with several biases that significantly change it:

  • Europe is not ever more dependent on Russian gas. The UK is suddenly finding itself with the prospect of becoming just as dependent on Russian gas as the rest of continental Europe has been for the past 30 years. Of course the overall dependency of Europe goes up, but that comes chiefly from the UK's brutal shift from gas exporter to gas importer. While it could safely ignore energy issues before, protected by its North Sea loot, and scoff continental Europeans' focus on energy security, it is suddenly changing its tune and, frankly, overreacting badly, including the self-righteous (and counter-productive) lashing at Putin's Russia. Access to energy is NOT a basic right of countries and the UK is throwing a tantrum like a spoilt kid that suddenly has its toy taken away. The problem is that it is de facto setting policy for Europe without this having been seriously debated.

  • the second point is that describing the Putin years as a "steady drift from nascent democracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" is terribly disingenuous. Describing it as a "steady drift from chaotic kleptocracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" (a net positive, especially for Russians) would be more a propos. "A steady drift from cowed-impotent-and-submissive to uppity-and-impossible-to-ignore" might be an even better label from the West's leaders' perspective and explain their current annoyance...


To my mind, this is to confuse realism with capitulation. Earlier this year Russia disrupted gas supplies to Europe when it turned off supplies to Ukraine. Amid much indignation, European governments demanded Russia guarantee security of supply by liberalising its energy market. Mr Putin refused. The Europeans shrugged their shoulders.

This is a disingenuous reading of what happened. The fact is that these gas conflicts with Ukraine have been going on since 1992, and have nothing to do with the West, and are always resolved in the same way since 1993: with Russia capitulating to Ukrainians cutting the transit gas and European protesting, and immediately restoring supplies. Gazprom has always been very careful to maintain supplies to the West, and it has. In January, it restored supplies before any agreement was found with the Ukrainians. I wrote my PhD on the topic in 1995 and this year's crisis fit the exact same pattern.

Now to the assertion that Europeans "demanded Russia guarantee security of supply by liberalising its energy market". It is true that this demand has been made, but it has nothing to do with security of supply. Liberalising the energy markets (in practise, giving access to Russian oil & gas reserves to Western oil companies, and giving them rights to use the existing pipeline monopolies to export their production to Europe, both for oil and gas) would do one thing: give these Western companies a big claim on the oil & gas rent (the profit made from digging something "free" out of the ground and selling it for a profit) of Russia. It would not give them a bigger piece of the rent, as Russia would still be free to impose uniform production and export taxes, but it would set the stage for permanent negociations on these taxes. Today, prices are high and Russia's bargaining position is strong, but what about in the future? What would Russia get from opening this door today?

The argument is usually that it would spur investment and make the industry more efficient. There is a simple retort to this: Russia is investing enough today (its oil industry is still mostly private and keen to take advantage of today's prices, and Gazprom does not need more capacity today, as it exports all it can and any additional production would be wasted inside Russia where it is distributed at low prices.

So liberalisation is a self-serving demand by the West that provides little to Russia. How can we be surprised that Putin does not like such a one-sided deal?


A truly realist policy towards Russia would have two components. The first would recognise that the present regime in the Kremlin is not interested in grand bargains with the west, about energy or anything else. Nor does it want to "integrate" Russia into Europe.

I am not sure that's true. On the gas side, for instance, Russia has always been keen to set up strategic deals that secure demand for its gas and allow it to make the necessary long term investments. ExxonMobil and others sign 25 year contracts to buy gas from Qatar in order to set up the financing for the massive investments needed to build the production and transport infrastructure. Why are similar requests by the Russians seen as unreasonable? Gas is an infrastructre business with huge upfront costs and both the supplier and the buyer need the stability provided by very long term contracts/frameworks for the economics to work. I really don't understand why the eminently sensible demand by Russia is mocked by our leaders (and I am sure it isn't by the industry itself).


Mr Putin's Russia has bigger ambitions. It intends to use its new-found wealth to maximise its global influence. On the way it is also determined to re-establish its authority over its so-called near abroad - most obviously Ukraine, the Caucasus and central Asia.

I'd be curious to find a big country that does not try to "maximise its global influence". What kind of an argument is that? As to the near abroad, what would the USA had done a few years ago if the Soviet Union had set up bases in Mexico and Canada and invited them to join the Warsaw Pact?


The second component would understand that, most of the time, Mr Putin is bluffing. For all its present good fortune, Russia is a state in decline. Its almost complete economic reliance on oil and gas is reminiscent of the late Soviet era. The country's population is shrinking by more than 500,000 a year and its workforce is ravaged by ill health and alcoholism.

Russia's very real problems do not make its current possession of goods desperately sought by the West less powerful in any way. We crave energy; Russia has some; thus it has power over us. The rest has little relevance here.


Those with close knowledge of the industry say that businesses such as Gazprom, the state gas monopoly, are rotting from the inside. Gazprom is hopelessly inefficient, technologically backward and can meet its orders only by coercing central Asian suppliers. As for threats to cut off supplies to Europe, Gazprom has no other customers. Nor does Moscow possess the financial capacity or the technology to develop its vast hydrocarbon resources in Siberia.

Gazprom is not inefficient, it is not technologically backward, and it is perfectly able to develop its Siberian resources. It does not need to right now, simply because there is no further demand for its gas at interesting prices. It is exporting all that Europe will take, and any increase in production would go to the domestic market where Gazprom makes little profit. The use of Central Asian gas is a useful gambit to hide real production capacity from the Kremlin (and thus negotiate lower taxes and higher regulated domestic prices) and to hide very real scams that profit a select few in Gazprom's top management (such as the opaque contracts to Ukraine via shady third parties, that simply cannot ship gas from Central Asia to Ukraine via Gazprom's pipelines without high level consent).

What is true is that a lot of the rent Gazprom generates (because of its hold over super giant gas fields and its incredible pipeline network that give it the lowest cost of gas to Europe by far) is looted by insiders at various levels, and is reflected in higher costs. But the West's argument is that such loot should go to Western shareholders (in the form of "fair profits") rather than to Russians, in the form of subsidized gas and yes, corruption. What is the attraction of that to Russians (including to the general population, for whom access to cheap gas, and thus cheap electricity and heating, is the most fundamental service their government can provide in their cold country - and the way it is currently done, in kind, is the fairest and most effective that can be hoped for in the country)?

And it is also true that Russia is fully dependent on Europe's market for its gas (and most of its oil) sales, which makes Putin's assertions that he is looking for fair, bilateral deals all the more credible. We have to look at it from their perspective as well.


In short, Russia has none of the attributes of a 21st-century superpower. In poker terms, the country's oil and gas reserves give the Russian leader a hand equivalent to, say, a pair of sevens. But Mr Putin knows how to bluff - easy enough when your opponents have so obviously lost their nerve.

Nice try, but as long as we are desperate for more energy, then Russia having oil and gas, and the means to deliver them to us via their transport infrastructure, then Putin holds 4 aces, and has no reason to indulge our silly fantaisies that Russia should provide us with Russia's oil and gas, no questions asked.

So far, Russia (and before it, remember, the Soviet Union) has been an extraordinarily reliable supplier of gas, and I see no reason to believe that this will change. Gas infrastructure creates co-dependencies and neither party can use the mutual dependency to any lasting profit - both lose out from conflict. Russia is currently benefitting from much higher oil and gas prices, caused by our reckless push for ever more energy to be burnt, and is reacting mostly benignly to what can only be described as the self-indulgent tantrums of a spoilt kid. We have no God-given right to the energy resources of the rest of the world, and Russia, despite their supposed decline or weakness, is unlikely to have its hand forced.

It's time to drop the sanctimonious tone and speak in good faith with Russia - or to work on reducing energy demand. Why is that so hard to understand - and to do?

Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password

Display:
Gas infrastructure creates co-dependencies and neither party can use the mutual dependency to any lasting profit - both lose out from conflict.

That's both clearly put and clearly true -- and one thing it means among others is that this is not a poker game. In other words, Philip Stephens bases his argument on an over-heated (gas-fired?) metaphor right from the start.

It's getting tiresome, this all-male combat talk all the time. Everything is confrontational, everything is win-or-lose. The enemy is at the gate, we are going to be overrun, the enemy is cheating us because we are weak and let him get away with it, Munich, appeasement, the bear is in the woods why haven't you got your gun?

I get the feeling that the reason for this power discourse is that, in the post-Cold War wide-open world, there are prizes to be won for (yes) a few. And what's at stake in this faux poker game is how to "open up" Russia's oil and gas to Western capitalist rentiers.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 03:34:06 AM EST
into a LTE. Anyone around to help out?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 03:55:17 AM EST
Am looking at your draft now.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 05:07:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
your kind support requested
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/7/18/14036/4230

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 03:57:57 AM EST
This has to be some kind of record - 54 recommends (and counting) and not on the rec list...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 09:07:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Change the title to "I am a Frenchie."  That seems to be the working formula today...  Then again, if the content doesn't allow for people to yell at each other about Israel and Lebanon, you might just be outta luck.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 11:21:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dear Sirs,

In his column today ("The west folds before Putin's bluff"), Philip Stephens sees the energy relationship with Russia as a zero-sum game where one party has to lose, and he bemoans our political leaders for not fighting hard enough.

Beyond not making clear what fighting harder (or "calling Putin's bluff") would entail, this article is revealing of the West's sanctimonious, self-righteous and, frankly, spoilt attitude towards uppity foreigners that dare put conditions to our unfettered access to the resources - in particular the energy resources - on their territory.

It is no coincidence that this is happening at a time when the UK and North America are suddenly losing their natural gas self-sufficiency and look to a future where, like Japan and most European countries, they need to import a significant portion of their gas, in particular from Russia. As energy becomes scarcer, we have the choice to either use less of it or to deal with those able to provide us with our needs. "Dealing with" does not mean "ordering around" or "being sanctimonious to". It means listening to, and in all likelihood taking into account what is said. And if we don't like it, then we can always go back to option one: using less energy.

Describing the Putin years as a "steady drift from nascent democracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" is also pretty disingenuous. A "steady drift from chaotic kleptocracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" (a net positive for Russians) would be more apropos. "A steady drift from cowed-impotent-and-submissive to uppity-and-impossible-to-ignore" might be an even better label from the perspective of Western elites and explain their current annoyance, as expressed in Mr Stephens' column....

So far, Russia (and before it, for a long time, the Soviet Union) has been an extraordinarily reliable supplier of gas, and there is no reason to believe that this will change. Gas infrastructure creates co-dependencies and neither party can use the mutual dependency to any lasting profit - both lose out from conflict. Russia is currently benefitting from much higher oil and gas prices, caused by our reckless push for ever more energy to be burnt, and is reacting mostly benignly to what can only be described as the self-indulgent tantrums of a spoilt kid. We have no God-given right to the energy resources of the rest of the world, and Russia, despite the supposed decline or weakness described in Mr Stephens' column, is unlikely to have its hand forced.

It's time to drop the self-righteous tone and speak in good faith with Russia - or to work on reducing energy demand. Why is that so hard to understand - and to do?




In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 04:29:17 AM EST
Very nice. A joy to read.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 04:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I humbly suggest:

-- remove "uppity" from the first sentence in paragraph two.  (It sounds too snarky to me, given that the LTE makes the same point anyway but by other means.)

-- remove "pretty" from the first sentence in paragraph four.  Disingenuous doesn't, I think, need qualifying.

--Remove the last sentence.  As a rhetorical question it doesn't ask the reader to think beyond their own prejudices (unlike the rest of your great, as always, LTE.)

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 05:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A "steady drift from chaotic kleptocracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" (a net positive for Russians) would be more apropos. "A steady drift from cowed-impotent-and-submissive to uppity-and-impossible-to-ignore"

Can this be reworded less heavy on dashes and parenthesis? Not that I can suggest a cleaner wording or really insist ..

by blackhawk on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 05:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Haha, great!

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 05:31:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My proposals in italics:

"Dear Sirs,"

Is this standard at the FT? Otherwise just: Sir,

P 1  - 2

"...a zero-sum game where one party has to lose, and he..." finds fault with our political leaders for giving up without a fight.

He does not make clear in what precise fashion this is a win-or-lose situation, or... "what fighting harder (or "calling Putin's bluff") would entail". I suggest you cut the rest of the paragraph and just say something like this: Beyond this, the article is revealing of an unacceptable attitude to sovereign foreign nations and the natural resources on their territory.

P 3 OK

P 4 for "apropos" read appropriate
..."their current annoyance", (as expressed in Mr Stephens' column..?)

P 5 To date, Russia (and before it, for many years, the Soviet Union)...
..."despite the supposed decline or weakness"... imputed by Mr Stephens,

Otherwise I like it.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 05:48:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks to those that provided some feedback and improvements. Here's the version as sent:


Sir,

In his column today ("The west folds before Putin's bluff"), Philip Stephens sees the energy relationship with Russia as a zero-sum game where one party has to lose, and he finds fault with our political leaders for giving up without a fight.

However, he does not make clear in what precise fashion this is a win-or-lose situation, or what fighting harder (or "calling Putin's bluff") would entail. And beyond that, this article is revealing of an unacceptable attitude to sovereign foreign nations and the natural resources on their territory.

It is no coincidence that this is happening at a time when the UK and North America are suddenly losing their natural gas self-sufficiency and look to a future where, like Japan and most European countries, they need to import a significant portion of their gas, in particular from Russia. As energy becomes scarcer, we have the choice to either use less of it or to deal with those able to provide us with our needs. "Dealing with" does not mean "ordering around" or "being sanctimonious to". It means listening to, and in all likelihood taking into account what is said. And if we don't like it, then we can always go back to option one: using less energy.

Describing the Putin years as a "steady drift from nascent democracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" is also disingenuous. A "steady drift from chaotic kleptocracy to authoritarian kleptocracy", a net positive for most Russians, would be more appropriate. "A steady drift from cowed-impotent-and-submissive to uppity-and-impossible-to-ignore" might be an even better label from the perspective of Western elites and explains their current annoyance (as expressed in Mr Stephens' column)...

To date, Russia (and before it, for many years, the Soviet Union) has been an extraordinarily reliable supplier of gas, and there is no reason to believe that this will change. Gas infrastructure creates co-dependencies and neither party can use the mutual dependency to any lasting profit - both lose out from conflict. Russia is currently benefitting from much higher oil and gas prices, caused by our reckless push for ever more energy to be burnt, and is reacting mostly benignly to what can only be described as the self-indulgent tantrums of a spoilt kid. We have no God-given right to the energy resources of the rest of the world, and Russia, despite the supposed decline or weakness imputed by Mr Stephens, is unlikely to have its hand forced.

It's time to drop the self-righteous tone and speak in good faith with Russia - or to work on reducing energy demand.

Best Regards,

Jerome Guillet
Editor, European Tribune

Note: a longer comment on Mr Stephens' article can be found on European Tribune, at http://www.eurotrib.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2006/7/18/11939/9588




In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 06:56:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dang, too late

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 09:03:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd like to front page this...what do you all think?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 07:20:46 AM EST
Fell free.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 07:40:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did it hurt?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 07:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
now it does...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:20:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Great LTE, by the way, hope they publish it...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:19:13 AM EST
...hold the G8 while you are away?


"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char
by Melanchthon on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:30:18 AM EST
They did it on purpose...

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:34:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:57:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting article and authoritative analysis by Jerome however in your place I would not respond at all.
Give them time to lick their wounds, their strategy of extracting little concessions from Russia by dressing it down publicly failed miserably. No wonder today in Western press there are lots of crying and whining about G8, lots of undiplomatic editorials.
Cry me a river.
Seriously speaking the summit passed well for Russia. The only choice the West has now in view of deteriorating relations with Russia and China - return to much despised multipolar institutions like UN and negotiations. Careful diffusion of numerous conflicts around the globe that Americans and British incited during era of intolerable hubris after Cold War. Otherwise these conflicts will fill coffers of authoritarian petrocracys with more money. Strictly conservative budget policy inside, isolationism abroad. I would add - no more overhyped assistance to Africa, but I doubt there was any meaningful measures except writing their debts off. African states need full-scale reconstruction of their economies and infrastructure and it is in interest of the West to undertake it otherwise they will be flooded with economic refugees and will be in danger of outbreaks of dangerous epidemies.
Let Asian continent to its inhabitants. They have many problems of their own, and it's time to improve panAsian cooperation, not the time to take sides in any new Cold Wars, in any new crusades.

   

by FarEasterner (avdavydov@yandex.ru) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 08:39:11 AM EST
Outstanding response - clear, concise and correct.  Why is energy security seen as a zero sum game?
by stobie1 on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 09:37:39 AM EST
the second point is that describing the Putin years as a "steady drift from nascent democracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" is terribly disingenuous. Describing it as a "steady drift from chaotic kleptocracy to authoritarian kleptocracy" (a net positive, especially for Russians) would be more a propos. "A steady drift from cowed-impotent-and-submissive to uppity-and-impossible-to-ignore" might be an even better label from the West's leaders' perspective and explain their current annoyance...

Excellently said.  The problem isn't just the lies or hypocracy in the press but their sheer dishonesty about what exactly is getting on our nerves.  

You know, I recently read a BBC interview with a former British ambassador to Russia, and he summarized Russia's position in one cristal clear sentence:

"They don't like it to be taken for granted that they will do things the Western way. And if they do things the Western way, they don't see why they shouldn't."

How hard is that to understand?


Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 10:59:51 AM EST
Looks like nobody bothered to explain to Putin that the west "won" the cold war. It's time for the ageing ideologs to put away their toys and deal in present global realities. However, I'm not going to hold my breath.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 11:22:53 AM EST
It is the position of the Kremlin that the West did not "win" the Cold War, but that the Russian people overthrew their own totalitarian Communist regime.  It is also widely held that the current Administration in Washington, and perhaps previous Administrations never officially ended the Cold War, but continued to treat Russia as a nemesis, as illigitimate, as needing "containment."  Stephen Cohen has an incredibly detailed article about this in the Nation, which I really recommend if your comments were serious.  

So if anyone needs to be told that the Cold War is over, it is us, not Russia.  I think they want it to be over and are sick of our acting like it isn't.  Which is why articles like the one Jerome has dissected are frustrating.  They seem to be written for an audience or on behalf of those interested in seeing a perpetuation of Cold War rhetoric, unable to report on Russia without all these suspicion-laden metaphors about "bluffing" and such.

Do you think Putin is an ageing ideologue?  He looks young and smashing to me.  And the Kremlin has gotten a lot of shit for not being able to come up with a solid ideology to back their actions.  I think the not knowing where they are coming from, what they "believe in," is partially to blame for our being on edge about everything they do or might do in the future.  Makes them harder to read.  

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 11:56:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was being sarcastic about winning the cold war. That's why I put the word in quoats. Dick Cheney gets my vote for aging ideolog center fold.

It is most definitely the west and principally the US that needs to understand that the events of 1989-1990 did not confer a crown of world domination on them and assign Russia to a permenant vassal status. The PNAC crowd and friends have found that the loss of the boogyman of the Worldwide Communist Menace has been a bit inconvinient. the Worldwide Terrorist Menace is a bit vague. They seem to be struggling tho fill that void.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 01:13:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could look in the mirror.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 01:23:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Either my snark-o-meter needs a tune-up or I'm still feeling vulnerable from walking into the lion's den at Kos yesterday.  Probably both.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 01:40:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Revealing article,  good analysis, persuasively intelligent letter.

Great use of blog to sharpen pencil!

If I read this in the FT, I'd get chills and scan the sky for frogs!                

"Music is the pleasure the human mind experiences from counting without being aware that it is counting." - Leibniz .

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 11:48:40 AM EST
Thank you, Jerome. As usual you have described a very complex issue with clarity and wisdom. It is rather wonderful to be able to  learn  from someone so comitted to furthering the understanding of so many difficult and important economic conundrums.

It would seem that Mr. Putin has considerably clearer understanding of western economic and political dynamics than his 'fellow' leaders. What follows will no doubt be very interesting.

It is always such a pleasure to see when you have something for us -- but I do hope you are managing to enjoy your holiday as well!

Like it or not, we are all adding favour to the same soup!

by abroadwithaview (mailbox@e-mccrimmon.com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 01:22:39 PM EST
One question this raises for me is what is the likely future for economic relations between Russia and China. The present infrastructure makes Europe Russia's most accesable energy customer. However, China has a rapidly growing apetite and the money to pay for it. Up until now Putin has seemed to show some reluctance to run pipelines directly into China. I think that Russia may have some concerns about finding themselves in a "colonial" supplier relationship with China's booming industrial economy. However, they do offer Putin an alternative market to dealing with Europeans if they get too uppity.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 01:54:48 PM EST
None of this bloviating will matter once the sea levels rise 6m or more in the next 15 years.

None of this bloviating will matter when every summer scorches every bit of vegetation from the Equator to the 50th Parallel both North and South.

None of this will matter anymore once the percentage of carbon dioxide goes up to 3% or 4% of the atmosphere. We will burn ourselves to death, and all the gas and oil and other carbon products won't stop the inexorable heating of the planet. It might get so bad we asphyxiate ourselves on CO2.

None of Putin's new power will matter, none of Iran's, or Sudan's or Iraq's, or Bolivia's or Venezeula's petropower will matter any longer when we've burnt the world to a crisp.

And certainly nothing at all will matter once the INSANE Cheney Administration starts to drop nuclear bombs in the Middle East, just for fun, to see what happens . . . .

No, let's focus, friends. CO2 and radiation are the topics of conversation, not the power that burning fossil fuels supposedly has. The power of CO2 over all of us and the bursting of plutonium or unranum atoms with fission reign supreme, if we only could see that truth.

Go see "An Inconvenient Truth" for a wake up call.  

Share. Share resources, share delight, share burdens, share the healing. If we only could realize that sharing will bring us back from mass suicide.

by Isis on Tue Jul 18th, 2006 at 05:52:21 PM EST
I feel a sense of pride when these well-formulated letters go out in the name of ET, even though I contribute nothing to them, and am probably more of a hindrance than a help to serious debate.

But then again, to paraphrase Lin Yutang - founder member of Exotic Ciggies and Shapeshifting Pipes Anonymous ECSASPA - 'We all need a little chuckle now and again"

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Jul 20th, 2006 at 09:42:17 AM EST


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]