Popular anger  is boiling over election irregularities widely considered to constitute an effort to "steal" the Mexican election as in 1988, when the candidate of AMLO's party (PRD) was denied victory after a computer crash that took a lead for the PRD and converted that into a victory for the then ruling PRI.  Popular anger, and a series of demostrations by a second opposition party (including a demand  for a vote by vote by a young Vincente Fox, current leader of the ruling PAN), the right wing PAN, gave impetus to electoral reforms that led to PAN's victory in 2000, ending the 71 year reign of the PRI.

Among the irregularities noted in this July 2 election were the apparent falsification  of vote totals in 40,000 precincts. Further irregularities were laid out by Greg Palast in Florida  con Salsa.  These include ballot box stuffing, illegal access by PAN to voter rolls, and the scrubbing of voter rolls a la Katherine Harris. The response of the Fox Administration has been to suggest that the real culprit is an electoral system with three parties leading to a result in which the eventual winner doesn't have an absolute majority, and the suggested corrective action is the implementation of a run-off in the 2012 elections.

AMLO and his supporters are unwilling to yield their contest of the election until a full recount has occurred.  At least one member of the body charged with the final decision on the legitmacy of the election, the Federal Election Tribunal (TRIFE), has indicated that one possible resolution of the current situation would be the annulment of the election.  Regardless, President Fox, and Felipe Calderon, his parties candidate and apparent winner of the election, have done their best to attack any effort to challenge the election as a threat to the stability of the country.  The patience of the masses who marched to the Zocalo is waning.

Next Sunday, the 30th of July will be a "watershed moment" for the country. Mexico will see one of the most important and numerous mobilizations that have come to head in our modern history. It is estimated that between 2.5 million and 3 million persons will demand a vote recount.

"In this moment, if National Accion (ed note PAN) continues to reject the opening of ballot boxes, very important decisions are going to be made, vigurous, radical, and absolutely strong actions that leave no doubt that we are not going to permit an imposition. (ed note of the electoral result) The PAN knows, 1988 isn't 2006, this time the imposition will not pass.

While the exact meaning of "vigorous, radical" action isn't clear, most likely this implies the occupation of economic targets (like when AMLO's supporters occupied oil facilites in has native Tabasco in the 1990's), the blocking of highways, and in general creating a situation of civil resistance that will impede the ability of the country to function economically and socially.  As I've pointed out before, one likely target are the PEMEX oil facilities that provide 1/3 of Mexican government revenues, likely leading to a dramatic drop in oil suppplies available in the North American market.

As for the consequences of such an action, recent events in Oaxaca offers some insight. A strike by the state teacher's union appears to have converged with concerns from indigenous communities in the area, and the conflict over the contested election.  A rag tag army of teachers and others occupied 10 hotels earlier this week, and in what's looking increasingly like a repeat of the 1994 Chiapas rebellion, parts of Oaxaca are being occupied by teachers and indigenous peoples.  Their intent is to force the state government to meet their demands, which I'll confess I don't understand.

Nonetheless, occupations and provocations of this type followed by rapid and brutal action by federal police would appear to be in store for the entire country unless there is a recount before next Sunday.