Foxes In The Hen House

by Richard Lyon
Sun Jul 23rd, 2006 at 05:30:43 PM EST


During the generation of the cold war US foreign policy viewed the global south primarily as a chessboard in its battle with the USSR. Neither side had much interest in some poor third world country unless they thought the other side had an agenda there. With the collapse of the USSR, this game came to an end and the global south took its place on the sidelines of the neoliberal globalization game. Washington was no longer worried about courting their affections as they had no effective alternatives to doing its bidding.

The US neocons have dusted off the rhetoric of the cold war in their efforts to promote their current adventures. Worldwide Islamic terrorism under the control of Al Qaeda is being employed as a replacement for the worldwide communist menace under the direction of the USSR. However, this present day Hollywood extravaganza isn't playing nearly as well as the 1950's version.

China has demonstrated a remarkable ability to remain focused on its economic development with truly dramatic results. At one point they were reluctant to engage in any open confrontations with the biggest customer for their manufactured goods, the US. However, there seems to be a steady shift in that situation. The growth of their own internal markets has begun to make them less export dependent and there is a steady growth of trade with the rest of the world. They seem to have grasped the notion of diversification quite well.

Their relations with various counties in the global south have attracted relatively little attention in the US and Europe. They have developed classical economic relationships of an industrial nation seeking trade and natural resources. They have been very willing to use foreign aid and political support to secure favourable arrangements. Their position as a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto has been an attractive advantage in dealing with regimes that are out of favour with the US. The third world has acquired an alternative.

From today's New York Times it looks like reality is starting to dawn that the rest of the world doesn't stand still while the US becomes bogged down by putting more and more of its eggs in the basket of the quagmire in the Middle East.

U.S. Cuts in Africa Aid Said to Hurt War on Terror


The Bush administration and Congress have slashed millions of dollars of military aid to African nations in recent years, moves that Pentagon officials and senior military commanders say have undermined American efforts to combat terrorist threats in Africa and to counter expanding Chinese influence there.
Since 2003, Washington has shut down Pentagon programs to train and equip militaries in a handful of African nations because they have declined to sign agreements exempting American troops from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
But the policy, which was designed to protect American troops, has instead angered senior military officials, who say the cuts in military aid are shortsighted and have weakened counterterrorism efforts in places where the threat of international terrorism is said to be most acute.

There is of course some difficulty in reliably determining which of the multiple warring factions in African conflicts qualify as genuine Al Qaeda franchised operations. However, the scriptwriters at the Pentagon and the CIA are likely keeping a little list.

Some military officials also argue that the aid cuts have given China an upper hand in what they describe as a modern Great Game -- a battle for influence in Africa between the powers, similar to the 19th-century rivalry in Central Asia between the British and the Russians.
Specifically, the officials cite the millions of dollars the Chinese government has spent on infrastructure projects and military training in Africa to help lock up government contracts for natural resources like oil, timber and metals.
"It's hard to compete with China because of the agility they have in obtaining contracts and then starting projects very quickly without worrying too much about human rights," Gen. James Jones of the American European Command, which has military responsibility for most of Africa, recently told a Senate panel. "So we have our work cut out for us."

While it's never possible to completely separate a nation's economic objectives from it's political objectives, it seems likely that economics have come first for China until recently. However, they have reached a tipping point in their level of trade.

China has substantially expanded its presence in Africa in recent years. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, China's trade with Africa doubled to $18.5 billion between 2002 and 2003, and the figure exceeded $32 billion in November of 2005. China has overtaken Britain to become the continent's third most important trading partner. But it is the impact on counterterrorism efforts in Africa that most alarms military officials.

Lord Salisbury must truly be turning over in his grave. This will likely come as a bitter pill for the sizable portion of the British establishment that thinks that the UK should continue to be the guiding moral force in Africa. The current efforts of the Archbishop of Canterbury are a good case in point.
There are similar developments occurring in Latin America with China making trade deals and Chavez buying military hardware from Russia. None of this is likely to result in global upheaval tomorrow. However, as the US pours the lives of its men and women, its money and whatever goodwill it had left down the rat hold of the Middle East. It is increasingly isolated with its partner Israel.


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by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Jul 23rd, 2006 at 05:31:04 PM EST


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