***Really, really good mainstream peak oil story

by Starvid
Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:58:26 AM EST

From the Chicago Tribune via the Oil Drum, I give you

A Tank of Gas, a World of Trouble!

From the front page ~ whataboutbob


Besides being an excellent in depth mainstream story on peak oil, it has certain narrative qualities that sucks you in and drags you down.

It makes you really feel the glory, the waste, the inequality, the danger, the pollution, the vast power of crude, but maybe most of all, it makes you feel America.

It's such a wonderful and horrendous story that when I leaned back, savouring it to the fullest, I felt ice race down my spine as I was struck by the awful fact that it's all real.

And you and me are going to live through it.

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It makes you really feel the glory, the waste, the inequality, the danger, the pollution, the vast power of crude, but maybe most of all, it makes you feel America.

As I progress in the story one might add the feelings of anger and disgust. And hatred too.

I think I must take some dried frog pills.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 05:21:21 PM EST
The "oil slaves of modern man" meme:
The diesel streaked past a tiny glass porthole on the truck's hoses in a smear of pale yellow, like beer, while the premium unleaded ran colorless as vodka. That particular night, according to one industry method of calculating the explosive energy locked away in crude oil, Dunbar dumped the liquid equivalent of 19.2 million hours of physical labor into the Marathon's storage tanks--or the power of a slave army of 2,200 men working around the clock for a year. This bonanza would be sucked dry by customers in 24 hours, a small, stark example of the nation's awesome petroleum appetite at a time when the planet appears to be lurching into an energy crunch of historic proportions.


Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 05:40:00 PM EST
Y'know, to measure explosive energy in terms of manhours never occured to me as a useful comparator.

Hmm, a nuclear bomb is equivalent to all the people of China walking 4 miles...or something.


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 12:27:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This one is great too.

"Why worry about oil?" he retorted when Trager broached the topic of gas prices. "Canada's got them in tar sands, right? There's enough energy up there to last us lifetimes. We can say adios to Saudi Arabia."

A few minutes later the big man started speaking to himself in high-pitched cartoon voices. Then he asked Trager to stop at a liquor store, where he bought 6 pints of gin.



Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 05:52:37 PM EST
And how about this one?
This part of the nation was once called the Northwest Frontier, and it was coveted by settlers for its rich soils and abundant hydropower. America's aggressive history of expansion--its sense of entitlement to boundless energy and resources--has never really paused. Indeed, now it extends to all corners of the world.


Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 06:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems there is also lots of video, an entire documentary even.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 06:10:39 PM EST
But as it happened, the Binnings were among the few gas station customers to ponder America's energy future beyond tomorrow's uptick in gas prices. They grappled with buying an electric-gasoline hybrid vehicle as their next car. They followed the news about peak oil. They fretted over the kind of world their three rambunctious boys--Weston, 3, Spencer, 6, and Parker--would inherit.

In the end, like most Americans, they were optimists. They had little choice. Their livelihood--selling property in suburbia--rests primarily on a dubious supposition: the continuing abundance of cheap crude. Laura faces this reality every day. Shuttling the boys across the suburbs to piano lessons, floor hockey practice, Little League and hip-hop dance classes, she can rack up 40 miles or more in the Hummer.

"Are there problems coming? Maybe. But I prefer to think the glass is half full," said Tim, 37, arriving home from his office one afternoon after a commute of 19 miles each way. "When shortages jack up oil prices permanently, someone will have the incentive to invent another fuel. That's how the market works."

This reference to Americans' livelihood depending on the continued, unreasonable expectation of cheap gas remind me of this section of Keynes' General Theory that I read today:
... But, as we have seen, the basis for [long-term] expectations is vvery precarious. Being based on shifting and unreliablle evidence, they are subject to sudden and violent changes.

...

The later stages of the boom are characterised by optimistic expectations as to the future yield of capital-goods [e.g., suburban real state] sufficiently strong to offset their growing abundance and their rising costs of production and, probably, a rise in the rate of interest also. It is of the nature f organised investment markets, under the influence of purchasers laargely ignorant of what they are buying and of speculators who are more concerned with forecasting the next shift of market sentiment than with a reasonable estimate of the future yield of capital-assets, that, when disillusion falls upon an over-optimistic and over-bought market, it should fall with sudden and even catastrophic force. ...

...

This brings me to my point. The explanation of the time-element in the trade cycle, of the fact that an interval of time of a particular order of magnitude must usually elapse before recovery begins, is to be sought in the influences which govern the recovery of the marginal efficiency of capital.

If enough Americans lose confidence in the sustainability of the suburban lifestyle, there might be a sudden, serious economic crisis.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:07:18 PM EST
The possibility of such a crisis was briefly discussed during the gas shortages of the 1970's. Hardly anybody was willing to take it seriously. That blew over and along came the bubble of the 90's complete with SUVs. The present rise in gas prices doesn't seem to be having any significant impact of lifestyles. There is no shortage of supply. That's the only thing that seems to upset them. Ownership of a single family detached house has the status of a religious icon in American society. People will spend several hours a day commuting in order to hold onto it.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What will happpen if and when they have to pay $8 a gallon for the gas to fuel their several-hour-long commute?

Anyway, the best thing that can happen to Americans is that they retain their confidence in the long-term survival of their lifestyle, because a massive crisis of confidence is the last thing they (and the rest of the world) need.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have thought that there would have been political reprocussions at $3. I don't know how high it would have to go. Rationing it would upset them more than having to eat dog food to pay for it.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is deeply disturbing is our (their, many Americans') attitude about what is worthy of sacrifice, what is expendible and what is not: a stubborn unwillingness to give up our right to live however irresponsibly we like and consume as much as we want to and our begrudging, almost powerless willingness to give up the lives of our children to go fight idiot wars.  Like, you have no right to take away my SUV, but my son, here, take him.  

We must work hard to educate everyone about the fact that the invisible hand of democracy, which supposedly calls our children to fight in Iraq, etc, and which supposedly materializes in objects like cars, is not the hand of democracy but of corrupt profiteers who are exploiting many Americans' faith in the goodness of people and in democracy for their own personal gain.  

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 12:59:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My friends and relations are of liberal persuasion and tend to vote straight Democratic.  They are socialistic in outlook, as am I.

But people are in general divorced from the consequences of their actions.  It's very hard for anyone to think that his or her particular air conditioning unit is causing massive carbon emissions and threatening the environment as we know it.

And if there is a problem--blame big corporations, greed, shortsighted politicians, and other blameworthy targets.  But that's not the whole story.  Every American household is using more electricity than 20 years ago, whereas industry has actually been able to cut back on consumption.

I do not see any of the people I know driving less, consuming less energy, or practicing conservation apart from some longstanding, obligatory recycling of glass, newspapers, and plastics.   Even though gasoline costs more at the pump, you can pay with a credit card, so there's not pain associated with the moment of purchase--more like a shrugging regret at the cost and the idea of thinking about the problem later, when the bill comes.  But you only have to pay a small percentage of your credit card debt in order to keep floating.

by Plan9 on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:09:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tend to vote straight Democratic

I thought the Democrats were gay.

Homophobic joke of the month by Commander Alex in Toulouse (sorry jandsm, but I've been practicing these past few days as my gay cousin is in town and we've been rivalling to see who can come up with the worst jokes)

by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:13:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course voting straight Republican ticket elects covert gays.
by Plan9 on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why some sort of externality taxation system is the only way to go ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We will invade somebody.  Think of a spoiled two year old throwing a tantrum.  Now imagine that two year old in an Abrams tank.

Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.
by budr on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 08:03:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a freightening number of otherwise "sane" Americans who would be easily convinced that such an invasion was fully justified.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 08:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We already engaged in such an invasion. Once gas is expensive enough, the war will be openly justified as securing our resource base.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 04:19:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Bush the Father and Dick Cheney have said while in office that the American way of life is not negotiable.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 04:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, but linking that kind of rhetoric to real actions would be entirely new.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 05:21:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is there's no one to invade. The US already uses as much oil as the next six countries on the list.

It would have to be the US against the world. While this might feed fantasies of US exceptionalism, it really isn't a realistic as a military strategy.

Great article, btw.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 06:23:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have seen very little evidence that reality is a driving force in American military strategy or foreign policy.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 10:26:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We don't need the whole damn country, just the part with the relevant minderal resources.  Hence, why soon we are likely to hear about the "independence" movements of Zulia in Venezuela and Santa Cruz in Bolivia.

Consider the neoliberal wetdream that is is the Rumbo Propio movement for Zulian independence from the "Socialistic" government of Hugo Chavez.

The Way Out

This is the ads we have let the people know ...

What Can You Get

List of 12 Results

  1. A very superior level of life for you, for your family and for all.
  2. More jobs, better jobs and more productive and profitable ones.
  3. Very much less poverty, with real solutions, no peanuts.
  4. Very much less corruption.
  5. Law and order.
  6. Public amenities.
  7. Yearly profits shares from oil companies.
  8. High quality private education and medical care for all.
  9. Private Pension Funds for all.
  10. Very much more free time.
  11. Unions in its really genuine functions.
  12. Vouchers for education, medical care and pensions to poor people, that will become very much less, and become very much less poor.

How Can You Get

All these benefits for you and your family if our State reach an Act of Autonomy, granting four-folded Political, Legislative, Administrative and Fiscal Autonomy. We are speaking of an Act of Autonomy in each State of our country, that will enable and will empower our people with ...

Bill of 11 Rights

  1. A strong but limited Government, in charge of Security, Law-Enforcement and Public amenities.
  2. A strong and rich full employment and high life level and free-market economy.
  3. A neutral State, with no opinions in private non offensive matters.
  4. Low taxes.
  5. No huge amount of public debt.
  6. Hard money, free money.
  7. Popular privatizations of oil and economic state enterprises, with shares for all.
  8. Law, no regulations.
  9. Private Institutions, non State dependent ones.
  10. Popular privatizations of educational, medical and pensional state institutions for teachers and professors, doctors and nurses, clerks and workers.
  11. Vouchers for poor people.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 10:46:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell me this is a joke.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 11:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd foolishly forgotten about DemocracyTM.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 11:36:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, no.

This is a serious attempt to severe of much of Venezuela's oil and agri-business resources.

And the idea seems to be catching on.

Was in the Dutch or the Portugese that purposely limited the scope of their African colonies to where the mineral resources were at?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 11:46:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This would be a movement funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, wouldn't it?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 12:26:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not on the the publicshed budget, but the International Republican Insitute got a $200,000 grant for Venezuela......

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 12:39:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I didn't mean to imply that our actions would make any sense.  When did the tantrums of a spoiled child ever make sense?  Or that our actions would bring down the price of oil.  Nothing on this earth can do that now except a major reduction in demand.  

What I meant was that our response to the inevitable rise in the price of gasoline will be that of a spoiled child.  We are on the second or third generation of Americans who think The American Way of Life(TM)* is their God-given right.  The neocons and the theocons have ridden to power on just that sort of delusional thinking.  Their answer to everything is more tanks, more bombs, more guns.  

*Loosely defined as More of Everything Than Everybody Else.

Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.

by budr on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 11:45:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can be very certain that the campaign to liberate the natural resources of Latin America will be heavily couched in terms of protecting the human rights of the people who live there.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 12:21:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the USA, home ownership (including flats) has two large tax subsidies: the mortgage interest payments are deductable from income, and capital gains up to $500,000 are tax free.  For most Americans, owning a house is the only way that they will acheive financial security.
by corncam on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 10:47:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the hidden costs of America's imported oil? The answer is complex. It may ultimately be unknowable. But this hasn't daunted the likes of Milton Copulos.

A tenacious economist with the National Defense Council Foundation--a right-of-center Washington think tank--Copulos spent 18 solid months poring over hundreds of thousands of pages of government documents, toiling to fix a price tag on America's addiction to global crude. He parsed oil-related defense spending in the Middle East. He calculated U.S. jobs and investments lost to steep crude prices. He even factored in the lifelong medical bills of some 18,000 U.S. troops wounded in Iraq as of March. (About $1.5 million each.)

Copulos is a highly respected analyst in Washington. And his exhaustive findings flabbergasted the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this spring.

The actual cost of gasoline refined from imported oil, according to Copulos?

Eight dollars a gallon.

When he isolated the hidden costs of Middle Eastern crude in particular, the price jumped to $11. This included a war premium that swelled the Pentagon's spending to protect all Persian Gulf oil to $137 billion a year. In a truly transparent economy, by Copulos' math, filling up Rodriguez's Jeep would run about $230.

Consumers don't dodge the bill for all these masked expenditures. Instead, they pay for them indirectly, through higher taxes, or by saddling their children and grandchildren with a ballooning national debt--one that's increasingly financed by foreigners. The result: Unaware of the true costs of their oil habit, U.S. motorists see no obvious reason to curb their energy gluttony.

"Gas isn't too expensive," said Copulos. "It's way, way too cheap."

Or, as he put it to senators, quoting the cartoon character Pogo: "We have met the enemy and they is us."



Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:12:53 PM EST
You beat me to it. I was gonna post that.

The actual cost of gasoline refined from imported oil, according to Copulos?

Eight dollars a gallon




keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 03:19:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's £1.12 a litre. Sounds about right.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 03:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So we're a bit cheap in the UK too.

Hmm, it reminds me of the stuff Mark Thomas was talking about in his show about the annual cost of the arms industry to the UK, (£13,000 per taxpayer). I'll do a diary when I've read the book.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 03:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great finding Starvid!
by Laurent GUERBY on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:57:19 PM EST
The best writing I have seen on the subject anywhere.  Thanks for the pointer.


"Let's go straight to the articles on Indian land rights," Alcides said with relish, wearing his wife's reading glasses. A 40-watt light bulb burned overhead and moths swarmed like electrons. He read laboriously, reverently, into the night, stumbling over words such as "unalienable." Nobody stirred.

Given the long Indian history with treaties, the scene was hard to watch. The faith seemed misplaced. Like it did at the opposite end of the energy trail in South Elgin, another oil-based utopia.




Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.
by budr on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 07:57:52 PM EST
Great find, Starvid, thanks. Liquid fuel, liquid fuel...

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 03:18:14 AM EST
Liquid fuel really is what matters. That's why the people who are claiming that the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) of certain technologies (like ethanol or coal liquefaction) are less than 1 donn't understand what it's all about. Even if it takes more than one unit of non liquid energy to make one unit of liquid energy it is still very likely to be a good idea. 1 kWh of oil is damn more expensive than 1 kWh of coal or electricity. We should really be looking at LROLI (Liquid Return On Liquid Invested).

Anyway, if anyone missed them, there were three really good short articles in the sidebar of that page.

* Peak oil theory takes center stage

* Is the Saudi bonanza peaking?

* The nature of oil



Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 08:39:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: sidebar "The Nature of Oil." There is a chap of some fame (can't remember the name) who claims (and makes a good argument) that oil in fact is not a fossil fuel, and that it is a very abundant substance within the earth. I seem to recall him saying that if left alone, "depleted" oil fields will renew themselves.

Even if his theories were proved to be correct, as they have on several other topics, America's lifestyle and use of oil, and the growing use by other countries mimicking the American lifestyle, is insane.  Yet, to blame this predicament on "America" is neither a good place to start or end. It is, after all, a global problem and one of history and human nature, not one of nationality.  

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 12:33:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, goody.  I was hoping someone would make this into a diary!

Thanks, Starvid.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 12:39:17 PM EST
I've finally been able to download the links to my computer and hope to write something on this again  in the coming days.

Do you know if there were more graphs in the paper version? Any chance you can scan these for me, if any?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 07:40:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, I don't have a scanner & haven't looked through the on-line piece (too interactive-y).  Still working on the paper version (reads like a book).  But the paper & online versions are usually identical.  Most of the graphs in the paper version appear to be from the same source cited in the oil consumpion rankings diary posted here a few days ago.  

Sorry if I can't feed your graph habit. ;)

But if you can get your hands on a copy of the new Harpers wherever you are, there is a curious cover story on peak oil doomsdayers in it.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 08:32:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I've taken a look at the online version and actually can't find any graphs at all.  I find the animation stuff really annoying.  I don't know why they don't have all the graphs in the sidebars...  There are actually quite a few in the paper version; I just assumed they would also be online.

My suggestions, if you really want them, are

  1. Ask someone at Kos.  There are a lot of Chicagoans there & there must be someone who has the Sunday Trib and a scanner.  (Actually I'm sure there is a scanner somewhere around here but I don't know where or how to use it.  I'm actually pretty technophobic.)  

  2. Or e-mail the Trib and ask them directly for links to the inserts & graphs.  They really should have those kinds of resources available on line anyway...


Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 03:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am still working on this article...  It was so long it was its own section of the paper.  Now I'm afraid its sheer length will discourage the av. Joe from reading it.  Why was this not published in installations?  Why does the Trib have to screw up even what it gets rights?  Ack...

Nevertheless, it is brilliant.  It deserves a Pulitzer.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:14:56 PM EST
And I concur on the several passages folk here have highlighted.  

One small thing which struck me was the absolutely abysmal gas milage of the vehicles people in Illinois were driving.  

Those monster cars we used to call "boats" (due to their huge size and spongily-soft ride) used to get nearly twice the milage of the clunky rigs Americans are driving now!  

In a subtle way this piece is as damning as anything James Howard Kundtser has written.  

by Gaianne on Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 03:07:58 AM EST


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