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by Richard Lyon
I found an interesting news item that seems to have gotten little or no coverage in the American and European media, from DNA India: India, Russia, China join hands
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for a trilateral summit meeting, the first of its kind among the countries, and discussed a gamut of issues, including strategic cooperation and economic development. From the front page, with format edit ~ whataboutbob
The Chinese president put forward some proposals for boosting trilateral cooperation, including efforts to make full use of the mechanism of trilateral foreign ministers' meeting and push forward practical cooperation to enhance communication and coordination on major international and regional issues. Given the present state of the world this little get together really doesn't rate as a major upheaval. However I think it may provide an interesting point of reference to speculate about the shape of things to come. Viewing the USSR and the PRC as a monolithic communist bloc was one of the basic fallacies of early US cold war policy. Historically Russia and China have experienced far more conflict than they have cooperation. Mao was essentially forced into Stalin's embrace and the alliance didn't endure. Nixon and Kissinger used their conservative credentials to exploit their disagreements without getting accused of having turned pinko. During the very dark days of the 1990s there was considerable concern in Russia about being swallowed up by the growing Chinese economic juggernaut. China was being shut out by the US and Europe from access to military hardware and technology and turned to Russia. While Russia was willing to sell them weapons they attempted to hold onto control of their ageing military technology. They weren't particularly successful in this. China was in a position to apply economic pressure to get the technology. China's industrial expansion has increased its appetite for energy exponentially. Looking to their next door neighbour to fill the demand is a very logical move. Russia's infrastructure for delivering gas and oil is oriented toward Europe as are the bulk of its trading relationships. China has been attempting to woe them in the other direction. They have made numerous overtures complete with offers of construction funding to get the new trans-Siberian pipeline to run south directly into China. Putin and company have so far resisted these overtures and plan to run it all the way to the Russian Pacific coast to give them equal access to markets in China, Japan and the US. China has become a magnet for manufacturing jobs from the US and Europe. India is draining off more and more of the service jobs that were supposed to fill the gap left by the declining manufacturing sectors. The internal markets created by the increasing prosperity of their vast populations is attracting considerable capital investment from the US and Europe and perhaps more importantly, the gradual transfer of increasing levels of technology. This three way meeting was conducted on the heels of the G8 conference which did not include China and India. Puttin dramatically butted heads with the US after being shut out of the WTO. Increasingly Russia and China take positions in the UN Security Council in opposition to the US. What does all this mean for the future? China and India certainly don't want to disrupt their economic relationships, but they both have probably reached the point of being big enough players to exert leverage of their own. The three economies have considerable potential for complementarily cooperation. Russia's natural resources, China's manufacturing base and India's service sector could potentially mesh together. If that were to happen it would create a force that would considerably diminish the power of the US and Europe. The US will doubtless continue to act as though something like that will never happen and the world can be forced to dance to its tune. What will Europe do? |
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***Where Blow The Winds In Eurasia? | 24 comments (24 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
***Where Blow The Winds In Eurasia? | 24 comments (24 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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