European Tribune

***Where Blow The Winds In Eurasia?

by Richard Lyon
Thu Aug 3rd, 2006 at 07:28:21 AM EST

I found an interesting news item that seems to have gotten little or no coverage in the American and European media, from DNA India: India, Russia, China join hands

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for a trilateral summit meeting, the first of its kind among the countries, and discussed a gamut of issues, including strategic cooperation and economic development.

The summit was held on Monday after the conclusion of the outreach session of the G8 St Petersburg summit and the three leaders exchanged views on cooperation among the three countries, said Chinese officials.
At the summit, Hu said China, Russia and India, who have set up bilateral strategic partnerships among themselves, exerted vital influence on international and regional affairs. There is great potential for the three countries to cooperate in a number of fields such as economy, energy, science and technology, Hu said. "We should make full use of these advantages to deepen the strategic cooperation among us," Hu was quoted as saying by Chinese officials. (More below the fold)

From the front page, with format edit ~ whataboutbob


The Chinese president put forward some proposals for boosting trilateral cooperation, including efforts to make full use of the mechanism of trilateral foreign ministers' meeting and push forward practical cooperation to enhance communication and coordination on major international and regional issues.

Manmohan Singh said the three nations should make concerted efforts to enhance trilateral cooperation, making it beneficial to the people of the three countries and contributing to peace and development in the world.
Putin added that Russia, China and India share similar views on and interests in major international and regional issues. He said the three nations support a multilateral framework and have good bilateral relations.

Enhancing trilateral cooperation would not only facilitate the settlement of some international and regional issues, but also help promote domestic economic development in the three countries, the Russian president said.

The three leaders also exchanged views on the situation in the Asia-Pacific region and cooperation in fighting terrorism.

Given the present state of the world this little get together really doesn't rate as a major upheaval. However I think it may provide an interesting point of reference to speculate about the shape of things to come.

Viewing the USSR and the PRC as a monolithic communist bloc was one of the basic fallacies of early US cold war policy. Historically Russia and China have experienced far more conflict than they have cooperation. Mao was essentially forced into Stalin's embrace and the alliance didn't endure. Nixon and Kissinger used their conservative credentials to exploit their disagreements without getting accused of having turned pinko.

During the very dark days of the 1990s there was considerable concern in Russia about being swallowed up by the growing Chinese economic juggernaut. China was being shut out by the US and Europe from access to military hardware and technology and turned to Russia. While Russia was willing to sell them weapons they attempted to hold onto control of their ageing military technology. They weren't particularly successful in this. China was in a position to apply economic pressure to get the technology.

China's industrial expansion has increased its appetite for energy exponentially. Looking to their next door neighbour to fill the demand is a very logical move. Russia's infrastructure for delivering gas and oil is oriented toward Europe as are the bulk of its trading relationships. China has been attempting to woe them in the other direction. They have made numerous overtures complete with offers of construction funding to get the new trans-Siberian pipeline to run south directly into China. Putin and company have so far resisted these overtures and plan to run it all the way to the Russian Pacific coast to give them equal access to markets in China, Japan and the US.

China has become a magnet for manufacturing jobs from the US and Europe. India is draining off more and more of the service jobs that were supposed to fill the gap left by the declining manufacturing sectors. The internal markets created by the increasing prosperity of their vast populations is attracting considerable capital investment from the US and Europe and perhaps more importantly, the gradual transfer of increasing levels of technology.

This three way meeting was conducted on the heels of the G8 conference which did not include China and India. Puttin dramatically butted heads with the US after being shut out of the WTO. Increasingly Russia and China take positions in the UN Security Council in opposition to the US.

What does all this mean for the future? China and India certainly don't want to disrupt their economic relationships, but they both have probably reached the point of being big enough players to exert leverage of their own. The three economies have considerable potential for complementarily cooperation. Russia's natural resources, China's manufacturing base and India's service sector could potentially mesh together. If that were to happen it would create a force that would considerably diminish the power of the US and Europe. The US will doubtless continue to act as though something like that will never happen and the world can be forced to dance to its tune. What will Europe do?

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This is probably the most important diplomatic development in the world since the end of the (First?) Cold War.

I suspect this is the fruit of the American drive for world domination. The three most significant great powers that are not happy with a US dominated globe are starting to co-ordinate.

This is not (yet) a military alliance, although that may come if America pushes its military advantage over the rest of the world too hard. I am sure Russia wants time to continue recovering from Communism and China and India to develop further, before the big confrontations start taking place later in this century.

What of the other two major global powers, Europe and Japan. They are more closely linked to the US than to the incipient triple alliance. No doubt a wise American leadership would do all it could to build on those ties, so it does have some allies.

I suspect Europe, which is broadly satisfied with the world as it is, would prefer to remain neutral; but it may not be able to sustain such an approach in the long run.

The future is unknowable, but on the basis of historical precedents I suspect the neocons have stirred up the formidable opponent the Military-Industrial Complex has been hoping for since the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is a vastly more significant development than the minor opposition to American hegemony in the Middle East which Bush has been relying on since 9/11.

by Gary J on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 07:29:19 PM EST
Energy markets is one thing that Europe is in no position to remain neutral about. If Russia begins to shift its focus to the east it will definitely have an impact on them. European economies haven't been as heavily impacted by China and India as the US, but that too is likely to change. There are major economic shifts going on here that can't be completely or maybe even partially controlled by political decisions.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Jul 30th, 2006 at 07:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
.. I do not think there will be any conforntation. US lost Asia...he will have to live with it...or just make the life of the other impossible...and then we will be ready for a dramatic fall of the US some decades ahead from now.

Unless, by confrontation you mean the US going nuclear all aroudn the world because they can not control it...I trust the american enough....right now.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 06:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
.. it was going to happen anyway...unless ome kin dof super brilliant presdiency was elected..and maybe he only could have delayed it for half a century (nothing in human terms...) . Bush just made it faster.

It is a rahter improtat tdevelopment...it just happens a couple of decades before than expected.

US has lost Asia, he will have to concentrate now in the MIddle East and South American...and I think Bush could even lose both....which happens to demonstrate that Bush Jr (if there is no carnage in Iran) will be remembered as an awful presidnet inside the US but actually a great president in the elites outside the US (not because he wanted of course).

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 06:22:24 AM EST
Not really breaking news: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was created a couple of years ago by Russia and China with India now becoming a member, to serve as a counterbalance to the United States, many believe.

As Juan Cole notes:

[The SCO] will follow up on its success in getting US troops out of Uzbekistan and on strengthening energy cooperation between Kazakhstan and China on the one hand, and Russia and Kazakhstan on the other, as well as security cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan.[...] The US hand is weak.

One of the most extensive and lasting damages of the 6 years (and counting) of the BushCheneyRumsfeld administration unilateral policies would have been to prop the creation of a plan B among those emerging world powers who have now become determined to prevent a "new American century" to happen again.

Such "counterbalance to the almighty US" alliances are also called dismissively "the Gulliver effect" by American conservatives, like Krauthammer.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 06:45:36 AM EST
Another item to keep in mind is that the USSR and India had a long history of cooperation so there where existing ties for the Russia/India cooperation to expand from. More on India's foreign policy history in the wiki here
by Alexandra in WMass (alexandra_wmass[a|t]yahoo[d|o|t]fr) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 10:37:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the front page exposure. Since you pointed out the format problem this is a good time for me to ask my question. I have been encountering a problem in the posting editor. When the url is longer than a specific number of characters it bumps the leading <a in the html code up to the line above and I am unable to shove it back in. Any help would be appreciated.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 09:32:19 AM EST
HTML ignores extra whitespace, so you shouldn't worry about it. Preview  and verify that the link works.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 09:36:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks Migeru.

(Richard, I can say I have learned what I do know about posting stuff here from experimenting, and doing just what you did: asking questions. Html has its own logic, but you will get it quick enough. And yes...use "review"...it helps...)

Half the population is under the age of 18. Tanzania's future is NOW...join the 50% campaign!

by whataboutbob on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 09:40:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why big Asian three countries are cooperating? Maybe its coincidence but in all three there are currently three responsible governments not entertaining neocolonial plans toward each other and other parts of the world. Yes, there are some dark spots, as Xinjian and Tibet in China, North Eastern states and Kashmir in India, Chechnya in Russia and breakaway republics like Abkhaz, South Ossetia, Dniestr and others.
Another factor is American intrusions to the former communist countries in Central Asia, which were considered exclusively Russian backyard since tsarist times. India feels uneasy over military supplies to Musharaff's regime in Pakistan, China is enraged over support of independence for Taiwan.
Still there is some distrust between these three.
What it means for the bigger world? For the time being not much, it depend on character of foreign policy of concerned country. For Asia it's undoubtedly positive development hopefully the dawn of new era of cooperation and prosperity. For Americans it's new step in the game of power - recently Americans were forced to pay for air base in Kyrgyzstan 150 mln dollars per year instead of 1.5 mln dollars earlier. It does not mean Kyrgyzstan may be considered trusted American ally in the war on terror. Kyrgyzstan is Russian and to some extent Chinese ally and its demands to up 100-fold the rent was a stake in the game to exhaust rival bleeding his coffers, forcing him to pay every its step in this region thus impeding further developments.

European countries were pursuing strange mix of ideologized Americanised policy and realpolitik. It speaks of not high stanfards in EU over longer term plans. Ideologized policy is not sustainable in longer term. For example take two: Belarus and Ukraine. Belarus has mild authoritarian regime which is not popular in Moscow however Belarus authorities were successful in reforming their economy and sustaining high economic growth. Private liberties are not curtailed, political - yes, to some extent in similar way to East Asian countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Thailand). It's debatable whether Belarus is more authoritarian that these countries or not, however it's highly depressing when EU launch sanctions against Belarus while making deals with bloody dictatorships and ruining chances of Ukraine to be grown up. Ukraine has some chance not to be swallowed back into Russia only if the West would not meddle in Ukrainian politics seducing it petty politicians with false promises. The same way of Westernisation with impoverishment Russia experienced in early 1990s and happily escaped the West. Such way to democracy and prosperity is not sustainable. It's better if EU take a close look at Poland and Baltic states with flourishing sub Nazi culture. Poland has deep structural problems and impossibly high rate of unemployment, maybe higher than in impoverished Ukraine. Both countries may bring further political problems.

Take opposite example. You know that few days ago Mr Chavez of Venezuela has concluded highly successful three day visit to Russia. Russia invariably welcomed his bold decision to upgrade military hardware (it's Russian breakthrough into Latin American market) and invite Russian companies to his country. However Russia in my thinking has some reservations about cooperation with Venezuela. Russia wants to see it democratic and prosperous state and while his anti American rhetorics may be music for Russian hawks it's more important Mr Chavez has to succeed in his economic reforms, empowering ordinary Venezuelans.  Obviously that was not achieved during previous pro American regimes but they can return and reverse his decisions as long as he can not achieve considerable results in fighting poverty. I don't know much about Latin America but suspect understated but firm approach of Ms Bachelet has better chances to survive in long term, however in neatr future firebrand oratory of Mr Chavez will not be rivalled.

So if European Union countries in their foreign policy set empiric and not verifyable through Western media standards of democracy and human rights at first place generalizing few cases they will fall to the same trap of history where Washington was caught.    

by FarEasterner on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 10:23:07 AM EST
There are some new articles not free from mistakes however interesting.
India-China-Russia troika - Is It Possible? argues favourably for creation of such regional group. It gives wrong data on Russian Chinese trade exceeding 20 bln dollars a year and still growing. India in my thinking has to do more to enhance Indian Russian business cooperation because in future China may replace India as number one Asian ally. And Russia could do more to persuade China to retrospect Pakistan's internal weakness and its role in Kashmir.

Uzbekistan section of Indian article has more mistakes than usual, but any engagement of India with Central Asian countries is welcome and resulting coverage too keeping in mind obsession of Indian press with Pakistan, US and domestic scandals.

Influential journalist Mr Akbar is comparing Mr Blair and Mr Manomhan Singh hypothetically in his article Yo Blair Yo Singh. The undertones of Bush Blair conversation reached Asia and Blair's image took another beating. While in Britain itself mainstream newspapers like Daily Mirror which normally does not give much coverage to British foreign policy started to deliver public messages to Blair Got the message Mr Blair?.

Not all democracy lost on British isles.
Overpowerful kingmaker Guardian tries to make U-turn on Vlad. Vlad is quite popular person these days. His help is asked by the way by American Canadian conservatives and Israelis too if we read their press. His ambivalent position on Lebanon made him popular with both camps.

Some Americans woke up to realities of their ideologized policies lamenting democracy in Lebanon and Ukraine.

Venezuelan newspaper gives some details about Putin Chavez deals and Putin's support of Venezuelan quest for non permanent seat in Security Council.
And finally Greek newspaper analyzes Ideologies and policies and Western setbacks in Eurasia and compare them with "impressive business logic" of Kremlin.

For your reading pleasure.

by FarEasterner on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 11:14:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just read the article tha you summarize as
Some Americans woke up to realities of their ideologized policies lamenting democracy in Lebanon and Ukraine.
and I urgently need a shower. You really think this is "waking up to realities" and "lamenting democracy"?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 11:21:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How often do you read Washington Post?
The most critical article on Bush policy in my mind was "Putin's hubris" (lamenting rise of petrocracies and admitting Putin's efficience) otherwise it published biased anti Putin stories.
Of course article is written in characteristically Washington's apologetic style of Bushistas by the way admitting that American government was working months to prevent democratically elected leader from taking office. But it also admits the fact that Bush policy did not usher in democracy there. The question of Iraq democracy is tactfully omitted, it's still too painful.  
by FarEasterner on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 11:51:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not very often, I have to admit.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 11:55:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I had been an editor at The Guardian, I would have been strongly tempted to retitle that article Vlad The Cad. :). Putin is most definitely an interesting character and will make an excellent subject for a serious biography.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 12:18:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
another perspective on Russian Venezuelan deal was published by European Daily monitor run by old Cold War horse Mr Socor.
Pavel Feldengauer, famous maverick military analyst (with the same credentials as Mr Illarionov on economic matters), unleashed the hell on this deal, accusing Russians in selling second hand repainted war planes and paying kickbacks to Chavez for his reelection. I don't know whether Rosoboronexport may suit him over such allegations, similar allegations were raised by American media about origin of 100000 Kalashnikov rifles (also second hand and so on) and it was proved to be lie.
I wonder about scale of desperation in certain Western circles if they begin to find resort in such unmasked tactics.    
by FarEasterner on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 04:05:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the basic assumptions of the Program for a New American Century was that America WON the cold war and that Russia had been permanently reduced to a negligible power. As true believers they will deny anything that contradicts their faith.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 05:06:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the myth is more that US business bought Russia at a knock-down price in a fire sale. Thereby satisfying fantasies of US exceptionalism ('Ain't we just the meanest and the coolest?') and also commercal domination.

The fact that Russia still has huge energy reserves and potentially a huge technology base seems to have escaped the attention of the NeoCons, who collectively seem to be even less intelligent and even more disconnected from reality than the Party apparatchiks they used to despise and fear.

It's hard to find clearer evidence that exceptionalist ideologies make people terminally stupid.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 08:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are probably several closely related myths to choose from. You are certainly right about the invincibility of American business know how. Then the the triumpth of Christian Capitalism over godless communism.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 08:27:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The internal markets created by the increasing prosperity of their vast populations is attracting considerable capital investment from the US and Europe and perhaps more importantly, the gradual transfer of increasing levels of technology.

The one aspect left out is tha strong inequality of this new prosperity in China and India. Basically, those who get richer are less than a fourth of the total populations. This could lead to instability in both countries. China already has hundreds to thousands of labor and land conflicts.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 04:40:09 PM EST
There is no question that China and India are moving in the direction of capitalism with all of its attendant problems. However, that does not negate the emergence of an internal market driven by the prosperous minority that is attracting investment from the US and Europe. Both countries have become much more significant and complex that just exporters of goods and services. Even if the US and Europe attempted to erect protectionist measures, they would not be subject to sudden destitution.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 05:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think in bolder terms. Think revolution, civil war, warlords. Did happen many times in history.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 05:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no doubt that China and India have exposure to many risks and present economic projections are definitely an assured certainty. Personally I think they are more likely to be over taken by major environmental disasters than Madame DeFarge with chopsticks. However, political instability certainly exist and could be easily exacerbated by several factors.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 05:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That should be NOT an assured certainty.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Mon Jul 31st, 2006 at 05:21:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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