European Tribune

The Kurdish Pot Boils Over

by Richard Lyon
Thu Aug 17th, 2006 at 10:20:55 PM EST

I have long thought that the threat of an independent Kurdistan was something that Turkey and Iran would be inable to live with. It is one more Pandora's box that was opened by the invasion of Iraq. This article from the Guardian sounds like the pot may be comming to a boil.

Guardian Report


Turkey and Iran have dispatched tanks, artillery and thousands of troops to their frontiers with Iraq during the past few weeks in what appears to be a coordinated effort to disrupt the activities of Kurdish rebel bases.

Scores of Kurds have fled their homes in the northern frontier region after four days of shelling by the Iranian army. Local officials said Turkey had also fired a number of shells into Iraqi territory.


Although fighting between Turkish security forces and PKK militants is nowhere near the scale of the 1980s and 90s - which accounted for the loss of more than 30,000 mostly Turkish Kurdish lives- at least 15 Turkish police officers have died in clashes. The PKK's sister party in Iran, the Kurdistan Free Life Party (Pejak), has stepped up activities against security targets in Kurdish regions. Yesterday, Kurdish media said eight Iranian troops were killed.

Rostam Judi, a PKK leader, claimed yesterday that no operations against Turkey or Iran were being launched from Iraqi territory. "We have fighters across south-eastern Turkey. Our presence in Iraq is purely for political work."

Frustrated by the reluctance of the US and the government in Baghdad to crack down on the PKK bases inside Iraq, Turkish generals have hinted they are considering a large-scale military operation across the border. They are said to be sharing intelligence about Kurdish rebel movements with their Iranian counterparts.

"We would not hesitate to take every kind of measures when our security is at stake," Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister, said last week.

The US is also to appoint a special envoy to find a solution to the PKK problem, but that may not be enough. Ilnur Chevik, editor of the New Anatolian newspaper in Ankara, said: "There is huge public pressure on the Turkish government to take action." But he doubted whether Turkish forces would mount a full-scale invasion."The build-up of troops is designed to say to the Americans and the Iraqis, the ball is in your court." Tehran was also taking advantage of the situation, he said, "to show Turkey that it was taking action against its shared enemy, while the US, Turkey's ally, has done nothing".


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It's a real shame, but in my view the Iraqi Kurds may have been wiser to have played a longer game by visibly, if not actually, dissuading their Iranian and Turkish brothers from causing trouble at this time.

I've never understood either the Turkish or Iranian attitude to Kurdish aspirations. It must cost more in money and lives than the land is worth to keep. Aside from politician's egos of course.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 07:38:20 AM EST
As I understand it, the notion of a place called Kurdistan extends over land that is located in Iraq, Turkey and Iran. The various tribal areas in the Ottoman Empire were never formally defined and shifted over time. The British drawing of arbitrary lines when they got their hands on the territory has not turned out to be very functional.

It is the three most northern and most mountainous provinces of Iraq that most parties seem willing to assign to the Kurds. The various people who have Kurdish ethnic connections want a bigger piece of Iraq, with oil please, some of Turkey and some of Iran. It's not surprising that nobody wants to give up territory.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 09:02:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, kirkuk, the bit of Iraq that the kurds are claiming, was theirs until about 10 or 15 years ago. They were pushed out cos Saddam wanted Sunnis in occupation of the oil-producing region. So, that claim has nothing to do with the British thing and everything to do with reclaiming what is reightfully theirs.

I think the kurds do also have a legitimate claim to parts of eastern turkey. My view is that Turkey should offer them say half of what they want in return for an irrevocable treaty never to bother them again. It ain't worth the corn to keep fighting.

I have noidea what basis the claims on Iran are, but again if there is any legitimacy my suggestion holds.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 09:23:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is not unlike the issue of who has rights to what land in Palistine. When different ethnic groups have been pushing and shoving each other back and forth over the same area for thousands of years, the notion of title to land is seldom clear cut. My understanding is that Kirkuk was an ethnically mixed area until Saddam decided that the Kurds couldn't be trusted.

I think there is a direct legacy of colonialism in all of these conflicts in the ME, Africa, etc. The powerful are prone to adopt particular groups and promote their "rights" based on how useful they are as pawns on the board and not on what might promote peace and stability in a particualr region.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 09:38:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is another evil which is that borders drawn on maps by diplomats decades (sometimes over 1 century) ago age considered immutable because otherwise all kinds of disasters might ensue, while at the same time European borders are allowed to change peacefully (Germany, Czechoslovakia) or violently (Yugoslavia). So there has been a lot of gnashing of teeth over the prospect of Iraq breaking up, and nobody has a solution to the Kurdish problem.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 10:02:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A good illustration of this is the contrast between the way eastern Europe and the Middle East were dealt with in the post WWII settlement. They made an attempt to promote  some version of cultural nationalism in Europe while the ME was divided up according to secrete agreements between the great powers.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 10:08:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not exactly, except for Poland the current map of Central/Eastern Europe was already there in the subdivisions of the Austro-Hungarian Empire:

Then the Soviet Union broke up into its constituent republics and is likely to stay that way. The problem in the middle east probably stems from the Ottoman Empire being taken over by the French and the British and not allowed to break up into its constituent provinces.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 10:26:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Romania, Bulgaria and parts of what became Yugoslavia were parts of the Ottoman and or Russian empire at various times. It was a bit more complicated than just following the Hapsburg map.

I think that the important point is that there was a big push to allow nationalistic self determination in Eastern Europe. The approch in the ME was pure colonialism. It doesn't seem exaggerated to say that racism was likely a major factor in the difference. We are still trying to lead them to the light of western political salvation.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 10:43:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bulgaria, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia were vassal states of the Ottoman Empire. But yes, it is clear that colonialism and racism has a lot to do with the current problems. However, the intervening 60 years can't be ignored so we have to make do with what we have. Or, rather, they have to make do with what they have, if we let them.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 10:46:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When we start talking about the "natural borders" of Kurdistan, we are right back sitting with Lord Curzon at the conference of San Remo.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 10:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it looks like a large part of Iran oil is under the territory wanted by kurds ;-)
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 07:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frustrated by the reluctance of the US and the government in Baghdad to crack down on the PKK bases inside Iraq, Turkish generals have hinted they are considering a large-scale military operation across the border. They are said to be sharing intelligence about Kurdish rebel movements with their Iranian counterparts.
Echoes of Israel on Lebanon.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 07:42:50 AM EST
Frustrated by the reluctance of the US and the government in Baghdad to crack down on the PKK bases inside Iraq,

Give me strength. I don't suppose the turks have noticed that most of iraq is in the throes of a civil war. As far as the US & Iraqi govt is concerned the kurdish bit is quiet and can be forgotten.

 the kurds could cause a lot of problems the US doesn't need right now. So the US will fight to keep that area quiet and if that means treading on turkey, they will.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 09:28:08 AM EST
I am frankly surprised that the Turks have been quiet about this for so since long since the invasion of Iarq. I expected this matter to come to a head much sooner.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 09:40:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect the final trigger has been the noises coming from the Iraqi government about the likelihood of partition of Iraq.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 09:50:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dailykos has a thread discussing this as well:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/8/18/01224/6945

it has a map supposedly form some Kurds of what a future Kurdistan would look like, as well as what a change in borders in the middle east might bring about.

The world will end not with a Bang, but with a "do'oh"

by love and death on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 04:03:11 PM EST
There's never been a formal Kurdistan with definite boundaries in the past. It is an area that has shifted back and forth with various tribal conflicts. The various maps that get drawn up are simply certain people's notions of what they would like to see.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:11:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Robert Kaplan, a neocon who has the ear of the bigwigs, has been touting a homeland for the Kurds for quite awhile now. I'll be surprised if the US lets this one go, very surprised. This gives them a failsafe in the middle of what they consider a very strategic area, and if they can't hold Iraq themselves (they can't), they can set up shop in the north.

Ask this: just where is the "over-the-horizon" capability that US Democrats are touting as a means of withdrawing from Iraq? Is that part of the solution in Kuwait only? Or is it also in Northern Iraq?

by Upstate NY on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:16:29 PM EST
In theory an independent Kurdistan fits into neocon strategy. However, Turkey is an even more important ally. That puts the neocons between a rock and a hard place.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Turkey still have US nukes?

The world will end not with a Bang, but with a "do'oh"
by love and death on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:25:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably. They are also selling water to Israel. The land in Turkey that the Kurds want is part of that water shed.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree. The problem is, these neocons only have power for 2 1/2 more years. How much can they get accomplished with the AKP still in power in Turkey and a Turkish parliament that not only disallowed use of Turkish bases, but one that has turned decidedly anti-American after the American humiliation of Turkish special forces?

The disintegration of a close relationship with the Turks and the desperation of the US admin can make for some pretty odd decisions.

by Upstate NY on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't see any reason to believe that the Democrats would form fundamentally different alliances in the ME. Nobody is going to turn Iraq into a well integrated and stable society. I seriously doubt that any American government is going to be willing to just walk away from it and let them sort themselves out. Anything else is just tinkering with a mess.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:35:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a difference. Would a Democratic President have Neo-Con fantasies. Establishing a foothold in Kurdistan would fulfill that fantasy. Someone that wants to run damage control in Iraq is much more apt to either try to hold it altogether or else make sure the borders are inviolable.

So, my answer to your question is, Yes. Hopefully, the Democrat we elect will have different ideas. one view is the imperialist view. The other is that of a foreign policy problem best solved with our allies and threw discussions with diplomats and the UN. A partnership.

by Upstate NY on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 05:53:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it's Hillary Clinton or John Kerry I don't think it would be very different. I don't any knights in shining armor coming down the road.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 06:00:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Democratic Party has always been imperialist, and still is.  

The Repugs think the US can run its empire without competence.  This is the notion that is being challenged by the current debacles in Iraq and Lebanon.  

The Dems argue competence could be useful.  They further suggest they have some.  

The Dems have often argued for more cleverness and less brute force.  This might actually be a good thing.  But their goals are the same.  

Both are committed to the War for Oil, which will continue under whatever adminstration until the US loses, which will happen.  

Can the Allies be coaxed back?  The basic problem is that oil is becoming ever-increasingly short.  So who is going to curtail their own usage?  Until an honest and open discussion occurs on how to manage limited and dwindling resources co-operatively, it will remain a game of who is conning whom.  

And how is such a discussion to happen?  Partnership is dead.  There is no sign of American elites being ready to cede power.  The choice of Bush in the first place was a decision to throw over the co-operation that existed and go for the big grab.  And though that decision may not stand forever, it stands now and will continue to stand in the absence of plain necessity to change it.  

The things that make us think plain necessity is already obvious are the things which led us to know, before it was ever launched, that the Iraq venture was a stupid idea.  But those things carried no weight with the decision makers then and don't now.  They have an utterly different idea of what is good and what is bad.  

Elections will make no difference to this whatever.  Even Diebold is irrelevant.  

by Gaianne on Fri Aug 18th, 2006 at 11:30:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference is that Gore would not have started a crazy war against Iraq.

There's a very real and big difference there.

Imperialism through corporate takeovers, monetary warfare, clandestine operations is one thing. Imperialism through modern military warfare, the killing of 100,000s of thousands is quite another.

by Upstate NY on Sat Aug 19th, 2006 at 12:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody can know for certain what would have happened if history had taken a different course. I'm inclined to believe that Bill Clinton would have invaded Afghanistan and that he might have invaded Iraq. He certainly has avoided criticizing Bush's decision to do so. It's easier to speculate about Clinton's decision making since we got to watch him do it for 8 years. Since Gore has never exercised executive power, I'm not that convinced as to what he would or would not have done.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sat Aug 19th, 2006 at 12:54:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gore would not have started a crazy war against Iraq  

Well, yes, but that is why he was not (s)elected.  

by Gaianne on Sat Aug 19th, 2006 at 08:20:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The powers that be may not have actually wanted the Iraq War.  But they wanted a more aggressive (violent) approach to securing oil than Gore seemed likely to undertake.  
by Gaianne on Sat Aug 19th, 2006 at 08:24:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
who bomb Turkish tourist resorts. Another success of the Iraq adventure. Then again we shouldnt overlook the fact that the Kurds are currently being allowed to carry out one of the most extensive ethnic cleansing operations of the moment in an attempt to remove the Arab majorities from certain Northern Iraqi towns.
by observer393 on Sat Aug 19th, 2006 at 03:20:57 AM EST


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