European Tribune

Midlife Crisis for the European Union?

by Richard Lyon
Wed Aug 23rd, 2006 at 05:20:29 AM EST

From The Guardian.
Germany may block new EU members

Germany may block new EU members  

Germany is threatening to derail the planned entry of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU on January 1, forcing its postponement for a year as fears grow over Europe's capacity to absorb new members.

Yesterday Horst Köhler, the German president, urged the two countries to overcome clear deficits in their judicial systems and in the fight against corruption ahead of a final "monitoring" report by the European commission next month on their progress towards meeting the political criteria for entry.

Germany, along with Belgium, Denmark, France and Ireland, has so far failed to ratify the accession treaty for Bulgaria and Romania and Mr Köhler indicated it would wait until after the commission report on September 26 to start the parliamentary process. Ratification is due by December 31 at the latest.

(More discussion below)

From the diaries (with format edit) - whataboutbob


The commission is expected to express reservations about the two countries' progress but could give approval for entry to take place on January 1, swelling the EU's members to 27. But sources conceded that this could be overturned by the 25 governments - especially Germany.

Germany and its neighbour Austria are among the EU countries most afflicted by "enlargement fatigue", notably concerns that entry of new members from poor countries in the Balkans - and Turkey - would bring an unmanageable influx of migrant workers. The two are the only member states left applying the full seven-year transitional arrangements or restrictions on the free movement of labour from the 10 new members, mainly from eastern Europe, that joined in May 2004.

These concerns, highlighted by today's Home Office figures showing 427,000 eastern Europeans working in Britain, have meant that only Finland has said it will fully open its labour market to Bulgarians and Romanians.

This would appear a much more fundamental issue than Britain's proposals to close labor markets to the two upcoming members. The EU certainly has many unanswered questions about its identity and future. Continuing to add new member states with the constitution still unresolved raises problems.

My personal reaction is if you are going to take people in you should take them on an equal basis from the beginning. If that simply isn't feasible then it ought to be a strong warning sign that expansion might not be such a good idea.

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When the last tranche of countries joined the EU in 2004, the UK was one of only three countries to give full work rights to their citizens.

I don't understand why in the very beginning all EU countries were not held to the same standards.  The UK is asking for quotas now because they originally accomodated foreign workers when most other EU countries did not and so took in a disproportionate share of immigrants.  

Nothing against expansion, but if it is an EU policy to have open borders, how is it that the same labor laws regarding EU workers weren't in place in all EU countries?  Wouldn't this have prevented the problem of immigration as all original EU countries would have to bear the same burden of new immigrants?  

And what is the EU doing to give people in poorer or Eastern bloc countries incentives to not emmigrate?

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 02:50:32 PM EST
Germany's concerns seem to go well beyond the issue of immigration and labor markets. That's why I think that the issue is becoming more basic than that.

What happened with the immigration issue is that arbitrary political compromises were made to get the accession of the 10 accepted. Those compromises and they different ways that various countries have implemented them are now coming to haunt them.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because the EU is, at its core, defined by treaties among its member nations, and these must be approved unanimously, there is always a fair amount of horse trading. More eurosceptic governments will usually be able to extract relatively minor concessions as the price for allowing a new treaty to be approved. The problem with the accession of the EU10 was that there wasn't really a commitment to it, nor a compelling need, and so the horse trading and the national concessions reached shameful proportions. The EU council meetings at Nice in (I believe) December 2001 were a low point from which the EU still hasn't recovered.

I have always wondered why the EU10 accepted accession under the conditions imposed on them by the EU.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:18:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All politics involves horse trading. Sometimes you end up with a horse that you can ride and sometimes the horse you get is ready for the glue factory.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you need an excuse for a shower I invite you to dig up accounts of the Nice Summit.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 04:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More eurosceptic governments will usually be able to extract relatively minor concessions as the price for allowing a new treaty to be approved. The problem with the accession of the EU10 was that there wasn't really a commitment to it, nor a compelling need

It's more complicated than that. The strongest push for expansion came from Germany which for historical and geopolitical reasons wanted the ECE states in the EU. At the same time Germany was, after Austria, probably the EU-15 state most worried about immigration from the new members.

I have always wondered why the EU10 accepted accession under the conditions imposed on them by the EU.

You have? The new members felt that even under those terms EU membership would be a net benefit and they weren't likely to get substantially better ones in the foreseeable future. Plus, once you're in you get real influence over EU policy. EU membership was also very important psychologically as a way of affirming their return to 'normality' - i.e. an end to their 'otherness' and separation from Western Europe that they'd endured as part of the Soviet empire, and also a major step in overcoming the longer term status as peripheral states (in both identity and in their economic and political status).

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:38:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have to say Germany just pisses me off. First they miscalculate and overreach on the reunification, plunging into a recession and plunging the rest of teh EU into it with them. Then they get all worried that allowing Mediterranean countries into the Euro will make it more like the Lira than the Mark, and then they are the first ones to violate the Stability Pact. Then they decide to repeat the miscalculation and overreach of reunification with the EU10 expansion, and at the same time they pander to their domestic xenophobic streak by shutitng out the new EU citizens for 7 years. And now they want to halt the expansion to EU27 that they pushed for and already agreed to.

Can we get Helmut Kohl back, please?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 07:21:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm, I realise Kohl was there for about half of my complaints... Maybe I need to "critically re-evaluate" my memory of him ;-)

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 07:31:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe Charlemagne would meet your specifications :)
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 07:43:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And what is the EU doing to give people in poorer or Eastern bloc countries incentives to not emmigrate?

Sending them 3-4%* of their GDP - which is all they can spend generally - to build their economies and infrastructure.

* Roughly. I'm having trouble finding precise figures.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poland and the Czech Republic are so Eurosceptic that the EU Commission has cautioned them for not taking advantage of the "cohesion funds" available to them. If you want to use the funds you have to have specific development projects apply for them, and neither country has taken advantage of the funds at the government level, or from the private sector [I am not sure whether the latter is because the governments have not made an effort to inform their civil society that the funds were available, or because the people just don't care].

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 04:21:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are just so many issues and questions about Poland that I don't really understand very well. There's not much attention paid to them in the English language media. If there is anybody around ET that can provide more locally based information, I would be most interested in being better informed.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 05:31:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 05:37:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, mostly Marek's coverage.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 05:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If there is anybody around ET that can provide more locally based information, I would be most interested in being better informed.

I don't live there but I follow Polish politics fairly closely and have for many years.

There are just so many issues and questions about Poland that I don't really understand very well.

Any specific ones?

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 05:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One thing I have been trying to follow is the of Us vs Russian influence. That's probably not a good shothand description. For example there were some indications that the Poles were connected with the US government in the various machinations involed in the Ukranian orange revolution. That sounded interesting, but I could never get more than a wiff of it. There is of course their cooperation with the US in Iraq.

The US/UK relationship is of course long standing and there and there is lots of visible history to follow. Are the Poles trying to establish something similar or is it a very different game?

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 06:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's probably little in the way of direct Russian influence these days in Poland. Some opponents have suggested that the FSB has involvement in the LPR and Samoobrona but they haven't provided any actual evidence. Similarly, the PiS folks have suggested that the post-communists and the left-liberals are pawns for the Russians. In the case of the SLD it isn't completely outlandish to believe that there might be a couple of the ex-communists who retained some of their old ties, and the Soviets were definitely involved back in 1989-90 in helping out with the transformation of the PZPR (Communist Party) into the SLD precursor, but SLD policy has been consistently pro-US and anti-Russian, so if there are any agents they sure as hell aren't influencing things.

The pro-US anti-Russia policy is in some ways similar to the attempts by Poland in the interwar period to forge a close relationship with France. Russia is the old colonial power - not just in the post WWII period but also from the late eighteenth century through WWI. Polish nationalism was forged in the context of opposition to Russian rule, and to a lesser extent opposition to German rule. In that sense think, say, Ireland and Britain or the Palestinians and Israelis. To some extent the EU is seen as problematic as a foreign policy partner because Germany is its most important country, and also due to Schroeder and Chriac's policy of rapprochement with Russia.  That leaves the US as a choice as great power protector against its historically dangerous neighbours. Poland's support for the US over Iraq has to be seen in that context. So while there is a desire for a US/UK style special relationship, the historical and political context is very different.

Poland was very much involved in the Orange Revolution. Part of it was a projection of their own memories of non-violent mass protest against domestic Russian puppets and democratic idealism, part was realpolitik - get Ukraine into the Western orbit and it's a nice friendly buffer state between them and Russia. There's also a long and mixed historical relationship with Ukraine (The Poles were a very repressive ruling power in much of Western Ukraine for a long time, then were brutally ethnically cleansed from there during and immediately after WWII).

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 06:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I take it the Poles would be unhappy if the EU put additional eastward expansion of hold?
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 06:58:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think the EU can agree to anything any longer, so the point is moot: the accession of Romania and Bulgaria was agreed previously and can only be stopped if the treaty fails to be ratified by one of the countries that hasn't yet (that would be interesting). I'd expect the next wave of expansion to happen around 2019 at the earliest.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 07:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They'd be unhappy, but Romania and Bulgaria aren't really high up on Poland's list of concerns. What they really want is a path for Ukrainian EU membership.
by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 07:43:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would think that Romania and Bulgaria would be likely to join Poland in a pro-US posture that would help to shift power in the EU in that direction.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 07:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I guess while we're on the subject, here's one more thing the twins have managed to accomplish.  Nice...

What on earth is their appeal?

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 06:13:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poland and the Czech Republic are so Eurosceptic that the EU Commission has cautioned them for not taking advantage of the "cohesion funds" available to them.

I don't know about the Czechs and I haven't seen any recent polls, but generally speaking the Polish government is a lot more eurosceptic than the population. And it seems that the main problem with the funds issue is incompetence plus the fact that EU bureacratic requirements are pretty complicated. To the extent that politics is involved it's more that the Kaczynski's are largely indifferent to practical, economic matters and focus on power and symbolic battles. Eventually they'll figure out a way in which EU funds can be used as a patronage/constituency spending tool and they'll get their act together.

by MarekNYC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 05:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU presidency of Jacques Delors (2 terms, 1985-95) was, I think, a period of tremendous optimism in the European Community. It coincided with the Presidency of François Mitterrand in France (1981-95), Helmut Kohl as Chancellor of Germany (1982-1997) and Felipe González (1982-96), which joined the EEC in 1986 together with Portugal without newarly as much difficulty as the EU10 in 2004. These four people were committed Europeists and are responsible for the EEC morphing into the EU, for the idea of the monetary union, for the Schengen agreement, and for the accession of Austria, Sweden and Finland in 1997.

In the last 10 years, however, we've had Chirac, Schroeder, Aznar, Berlusconi, Blair, and the likes of Barroso, Prodi and Santer in the EU commission [Santer's commission imploded on a corruption scandal one year before the end of its term]. These have all been lightweights, and have been responsible for such disasters as the Nice Summit and Treaty [a mess the Constitution was an attempt at fixing], the rushed accession of 10 (ten!) new members including a micronation, a country not in full control of its territory, and 8 others with a host of political and economic problems [a couple of them could have been absorbed like Spain and Portugal were, but 8 at a time!], and the "Lisbon Strategy". The last 10 years' crop of EU leaders have been more concerned with their own political careers than with government, national or European, and their reaction to the paralysis they have caused by their lack of commitment to the EU has been to embark in byzantine discussions of "the future of Europe".

It's quite dismal, actually.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:12:14 PM EST
There are more issues than just the free-movement one. It is arguable that neither country has lived up to its side of the accession bargain and that perhaps their accession should be postponed.

Germany already has the problems of unification to deal with and some terribly high unemployment in some areas.

As I've said before, I don't really see what the big deal about phased introduction of free-movement is: it's been done before and will be again.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:45:03 PM EST
Further, I'd suggest that the EU has real problems: phasing in free movement isn't really one of them. The increasing acceptance of racist motives is - see much of the opposition to Turkey's accession and some of the opposition to the other states - one of them.

Another core problem is the ongoing attempts by the US to undermine the EU. It opposed the euro, it opposes any movements toward EU military structures outside of NATO and supports enlargement in the hope that it will be a poison pill. The US is in favour of a weak trade-zone, not a strong supra-national structure. This is driven both by delusions of grandeur - the US Imperial Century - and by the interests of powerful industrial lobbies.

Much of the UK establishment and media and many right-wing EU leaders* support this agenda as do many of the free-market religious types.

And before you accuse me of paranoia, can I suggest you spend a while revising the history of US intervention in Europe since 1945?

* Yes, I include Blair here.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:54:25 PM EST
I don't think you are entirely paranoid, but I think that the reality is that US policy makers see the EU as being potentially useful as long as it dances to their tune. I've done a good bit of reading about the Marshall Plan and the US envisioned a consolidation of Europe as a copy of the US. It didn't work out that way. The vast majority of Americans are simply not interested in the EU and don't know diddly squat about it. I would also say that the people currently in Washington don't perceive the EU in its present state as much of a threat to their initiatives. Russia and China loom larger on the horizon.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 05:36:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is very hard for me to see how the U.S. could influence the E.U. either towards Eurosceptism or against. We can try to get you to join or not join NATO, and we can influence your economists, but how does U.S. "interference" influence Europe's own reluctance to give up national powers, allow free movement of labor, or secure her external borders?
by asdf on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 10:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From The Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/eu/story/0,,1855938,00.html

Yesterday Horst Köhler, the German president, urged the two countries to overcome clear deficits in their judicial systems and in the fight against corruption ahead of a final "monitoring" report by the European commission next month on their progress towards meeting the political criteria for entry.

Midlife Crisis for the European Union
by Richard Lyon
on European Tribune

This would appear a much more fundamental issue than Britain's proposals to close labor markets to the two upcoming members. The EU certainly has many unanswered questions about its identity and future. Continuing to add new member states with the constitution still unresolved raises problems.

My personal reaction is if you are going to take people in you should take them on an equal basis from the beginning. If that simply isn't feasible then it ought to be a strong warning sign that expansion might not be such a good idea.


by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 04:31:39 PM EST
It seems likely that a slow down in the Eastern expansion of the EU is something that Russia would view with favor.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 06:16:06 PM EST
Everything I've read in the English language press focuses entirely on the reactions of people in western Europe to the pressure of the movement of labor form Poland and other countries in the east. Do you have any information about the public reaction in Poland to these restrictions and the controversies surrounding them? Is there an effort to make a political issue out of the matter?
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Wed Aug 23rd, 2006 at 02:40:55 PM EST
The Poles aren't too thrilled about the restrictions and there is plenty of negative press about those countries maintaining them and positive articles about the countries allowing Poles in. There are also lots of upbeat articles about Poles working abroad in the UK.  Recently there have also been some articles expressing worries over a brain drain. The biggest problem seems to be doctors - certain regions are finding themselves with shortages of certain specialists as emigration exacerbates existing tight conditions (public sector doctors get paid crap, meaning less people going to med school and existing doctors skimping on their hours to work a second shift in private clinics). In general there's concern that Poland's best young people are leaving.  There was actually a good piece in the Guardian on this a month ago as part of a huge supplement on Poles in the UK, concentrating on Poles from Wroclaw.

Why would you leave a place like Wroclaw?
(it really is a nice place)

by MarekNYC on Thu Aug 24th, 2006 at 01:20:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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