Globalization and Terrorism

by Richard Lyon
Sat Aug 26th, 2006 at 06:17:54 PM EST

The new chairman of the US Federal Reserve gave a speech this week that raises some interesting although highly speculative questions in my mind.

Toronto Star


U.S. Fed chief warns of threats to globalization
Bernanke praises potential benefits
Says pace slowed by protectionism

Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke urged policy makers yesterday to resist pushing for protectionist measures that would crimp globalization and the increased trade and higher living standards he said it can spur.

"Further progress in global economic integration should not be taken for granted," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to an economics conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

"Geopolitical concerns, including international tensions and the risks of terrorism, already constrain the pace of worldwide economic integration and may do so even more in the future," he said.

Bernanke's remarks come as trade tensions have heightened between the United States and China and global trade talks have recently stalled.
Americans have grown increasingly anxious about the potential to lose their jobs to competitors in China and India, two quickly emerging economic giants.
Against that backdrop, U.S. policy makers -- as politicians have done through the centuries -- may be tempted to enact protectionist measures that would seek to slow globalization. But that would be unwise, Bernanke said.

Such protectionist feelings have cropped up through history when people feel that the increased global competition threatens their jobs and their livelihoods, he said.

Much of this is what you would expect from a major representative of the Washington Consensus neo-liberal approach to managing the process of globalization. However, it's the part about terrorism that got me to thinking. So, I put on my thinking cap which some people might choose to describe as a tin hat.

At this point I find it useful to think of TERRORISM as encompassing not only actual and potential acts of political violence but also the politics and hysteria that surrounds those acts. Disruption of various processes is a likely objective of the people who are attempting to pull off acts of political violence. It's a classic guerrilla tactic intended to provoke an extreme reaction. So far there haven't been enough actual such acts of violence to even create a blip on the radar of international economic and trade relationships. However, the various responses of governments to the potential threat may well that the potential to create economic disruption. It seems to be enough to get the Fed's attention.

Trade of tangible goods and commodities is dependent on some form of physical transportation. It is controlled by legal barriers to entry. Those make it fairly feasible to increase security for cargo shipment. That might result in some increase in shipping cost but it doesn't seem likely to significantly disrupt the flow of goods. It is the technological developments in telecommunications that are radically altering a variety of relationships in the international service sector.

There have been several things to come to light about efforts to monitor international telephone conversations and financial transactions. It seems reasonable to assume that here is a good bit more going on that we don't know anything about. So far most of the public discussion about these activities has centred on civil liberties issues. Those are real and valid concerns. However, there may also be some significant financial issues involved. If these activities remain secret in the name of security, there is no assurance that they will be limited to people who might have links to known terrorist organizations. Global financial networks have become a vast and powerful apparatus. Having access and control of them raises all sorts of possibilities for intervention and manipulation as well as the possibility of just screwing them up by incompetent meddling.

I have long been inclined to think that an effort to control the international flow of energy resources is a major agenda of the current military occupations in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. History has seen several waves of globalization. They have all been disrupted and redirected by major political and economic events such as wars and recessions. We may well have a front row seat for the next episode in that saga.  


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Good article and thoughtful commentary.  I too do not understand where Bernanke is coming from with the terrorism thing.  I think imported cargo is a larger and potentially more difficult and costly barrier than you do, but as a real problem for globalization, I doubt it. The intrusion upon financial activities is a possibility, as you state.  For me, politics by governments, not terrorists, represents a greater challenge.  Look at China, busily trying to lock up access to oil reserves all over the world and thereby restrict free market access as in Venezuela recently.  This just goes to show that not all countries are will to abide by the set of "globalization rules" that proponents (the big multinationals) find so profitable.

won't wonders never cease? _ Snuffy Smith
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sat Aug 26th, 2006 at 11:14:54 PM EST
If anybody can whip this URL into shape, it would be greatly appreciated. I have been unable to make it work.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sat Aug 26th, 2006 at 11:25:02 PM EST
Hope it's okay how I changed the URL, wasn't sure if you would have prefered to have the titel repeted.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 02:57:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks so much. That's exactly what I was trying to do.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 09:37:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmm - so you're saying that for Politburo watchers, 'terrorism' should be read as 'anything and anyone that tries to subvert globalisation'?

There may be some truth to that. But it would be hard to make it stick without some event or act linking scary brown mad beumbers to scary white anti-globalisation protestors with... something worse than breaking windows and practicing street theatre without a license.

So currently a bit of a stretch perhaps. But there are certainly dark things waiting in the shadows of government, especially in the UK. Unfortunately there's not enough information available yet to see what form they're likely to take.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 08:29:35 AM EST
What I'm saying is more like the whole notion of terrorism is getting out of control. I don't think that the neo-liberal crowd is in control of globalization to begin with. They are simply trying to exploit it in their interests. They are also attempting to exploit the cult of terrorism to serve their interests. I'm saying that the two efforts may turn out to be going in opposite directions. I'm reflection back to the ways in which the international financial system went into a state of collapse in 1929-30.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 09:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't Rumsfeld once talk about a "global insurgency"?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Sep 2nd, 2006 at 05:43:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
could the usa default on its debt to china, and use 'time of war' as excuse?

what could china do?

There are no blank spots on the map any more, anywhere on earth. You want a blank spot on the map, you gotta leave the map behind. Jon Krakauer

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 09:01:33 AM EST
Japan holds far more US debt than China. The status of the dollar as reserve currency is another and very complicated issue.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 09:46:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It wouldn't work in China's favor in the mid-to-long-run scenario, because the US has the trade weapon.  China wants -- and for now, I think, needs -- access to the US market.  Plus, a US default simply leaves China with a bunch of IOUs.  It's in China's interest to get the money back and maintain access to a reasonably healthy US market.

Now by that I don't mean that China will not do something stupid like calling our debts, but I'm simply saying that I don't see it as being in China's interest.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 10:14:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is one possible exception to this. If the value of the dollar were to take a sudden plunge, then the value of the debts held by Japan and China would go with it. They could panic and start unloading them before it got worse. That would likely accelerate the plunge. Japan and China have many reasons why they would not like to see a scenario such as that and thus they continue to support the status of the dollar. Russia, however, does not have a vested interest in the value of the dollar. As their reserves from the energy market continue to grow, they acquire the power to precipitate such mischief.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 10:41:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All excellent points.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 10:50:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent points indeed. I'd love to hear what the economists among us (or even the investment bankers :-) have to say on this.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 12:44:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The latest buzz in the high tech world is that outsourcing jobs to the third world doesn't work too well. I've seen software work sent recently to Brazil instead of the Far East, for example, because of concerns like these.

More word has reached us about Intel Bangalore, where we hear the fear is that the office might be shut. We told you about this a while ago, but now there is a little more to add. The official word is that there are lots of projects failing, high attrition rates and, most laughably, low ethics. While we have doubts about all three of these, we do know that a lot of the problems come from management giving impossible tasks to new teams, and other related oversight issues. Senior Intel people have asked to study the costs of closing the Bangalore office, but it is not 100 per cent dead yet. Possibilities include moving it, downsizing it, or both.


http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=33910
by asdf on Sun Aug 27th, 2006 at 01:59:14 PM EST
I hope sooner or later everyone will realize that terrorism is here for ever or for a long time. Why?

First reason is diffusion of specialist knowledge, any school student can find on internet technology of making elementary explosives from available materials (even like eggs). Deadly weapons are also available on black market everywhere.

Second reason is objective process of development of human civilisation. After formation of nation states with totalitarian ideologies (I add Western liberalism and democracy to them using word totalitarian in initial meaning) and industrialisation and standardisation of every thing (from showbusiness, economy to politics and religion) terrorism is a natural way to express one's protest against super powers of state, its corrupt laws, courts, police and politicians.

It's guerilla war.

So-called Islamic terrorism is also sign of injustices in Western - Arab relations and it's only more organised than private protests against totalitarian states (any states, Western, Eastern, Russian, African).      

by FarEasterner on Mon Aug 28th, 2006 at 04:27:44 PM EST


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