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Prime Minister Blair to resign 31 May 2007?

by Gary J
Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 12:43:20 PM EST

More news from the frontline of the British Labour civil war (the longest running farce in recent political history).

Dateline London, 5th September 2006.

Straw in the wind 1

A memo, which is said to originate from Blair's allies, is leaked to the press.

It has been suggested the leak came from the Blair camp (who are so out of touch they do not see how damaging it is), the Brown camp (getting ever more impatient) or even from Education Secretary Alan Johnson (well placed to be deputy leader to Brown or a contender for the leadership crown itself if Brown falters).

The memo sets out a grandiose vision of a farewell tour for Blair culminating in a grand rally, so he can end his time in power basking in the adulation of a grateful party and country. This sounds like just the sort of empty but spectacular public relations gimmick that Blair loves.

This is the scenario of Blair going out with "all gun's blazing". Perhaps it is intended to be the classic gangster movie cliche, "you'll never take me alive".

Straw in the wind 2

The backbench Labour MPs (and even one junior Minister) are beginning to formalise their anxieties.

A group of 17 formerly loyal parliamentarians, first elected in 2001, have sent Tony a letter to say it is time to go. Other such letters are said to be circulating, collecting signatures from the Parliamentary party.

My comments and a BBC report after the fold

Once people start making moves that risk actual or prospective ministerial careers, you know that they think the existing leader will soon be unable to either help or harm them.

In my view Blair still hopes to continue in power, at least until Autumn 2007 and probably until he surpasses Margaret Thatcher's tenure in November 2008. It looks increasingly unlikely that Blair will be given the chance of freely choosing the time to go.

BBC story.

[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5314632.stm]

"Seventeen normally loyal Labour MPs have written to Tony Blair urging him to quit as prime minister.
A second letter from a group of new Labour MPs calling for his immediate departure is also thought to have been drafted but not yet sent.

Minister David Miliband earlier tried to silence the exit calls by saying Mr Blair would quit in a year's time.

Downing Street, meanwhile, said 49 Labour MPs had backed a statement of support for Mr Blair.

It comes as Downing Street distanced itself from a leaked memo detailing plans for a farewell tour by Mr Blair celebrating his achievements".

Update

Rupert Murdoch's Sun newspaper has some very specific dates about when Blair will be gone. The Guardian reports.

[http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,1865295,00.html.stm]

"Tony Blair was today under increasing pressure to make his intentions clear after it emerged that letters were circulating amongst Labour MPs urging him to resign.

More than 17 normally loyal MPs who were elected for the first time in 2001 have signed a private letter to the prime minister, calling on him to offer a timetable for his departure.

Meanwhile, the Sun reports tomorrow that Mr Blair will resign as Labour leader on May 31 next year, before stepping down as prime minister on July 26 2007".

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Prime Minister Blair to resign 31 May 2007? | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (4.00 / 2)

It seems that the "letter of support" has been circulated among the usual loyalist suspects but even they had to have their other arm twisted to get them to do it. It apparently is not even that good, effectively saying a la Milliband "No worries Tone, a year for you to go is fine by us". Whatever way, this will be his last annual Labour Party conference as leader.

I think unofficially Blair has his exit strategy worked out. He is going on a tour of the Middle East soon and it is fairly obvious this is designed to get the Israel/Palestine/Lebanon peace settlement back on track and to provide his "legacy". The scenario is this: get the three sides to sign a "Dayton 2" with the immediate release of detainees, receive the adulation of the old Labour members who have defected or become inactive and then get out before the whole thing goes pear shaped. That possibly means resignation in the first couple of months of next year in time for a new leader to gain from the "bounce" at the Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections. (Alternative is sorting out the Northern Ireland impasse, get the two extreme sides to work together or face direct rule or transfer to the Republic and then leave.)

You can see him flailling round already for his "legacy". His "ASBOs for foetuses" ideas have fallen flatter than a pancake under a ten tonne weight. To mix a metaphor, the lame duck is frozen in the headlights.

by Londonbear on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 01:27:56 PM EST

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

I wonder if the Middle East players will co-operate? I suspect that Blair will achieve very little more, either at home or abroad.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 02:05:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

Probably not (not the Northern Irish) but it does indicate the degree of desperation Blair is for his "legacy".

by Londonbear on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 04:06:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

I don't think that there's a party in NI that wouldn't hold off agreeing just to piss him off. And the Irish government isn't likely to indulge his grandstanding either, especially with an election coming up.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 04:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

I know I can't wait for him to go, but will Brown be any better ? As committed an Atlanticist as Tony, certainly economically GB is of the neocon persuasion. Which as Jerome points out in his diary about the neocons expicitly means aggressive militarist posturing.

So no change there then.

Gordon talks the talk about social development. But with his internationalist corporate viewpoint I can't see the fate of the grubby underclasses bothering him as he splashes water on them as he drives apst in his well-policed convoys on his way to yet more convivial luncheons with the sort of financiers with whom he is most comfortable.

So no change there then either.

So what might change that means we could celebrate ?

Well, the obviously rubbish people who cling to Blair like a bad smell will go. Kelly, Prescot, Blears, Milliband will be gone before the ink has dried. So the air of calamitous failure in the cabinet will temporarily fade. Such small mercies are all we can cling to right now.

Brown barely knows europe exists and I fear that EU policy will wither on the vine whilst brown expands his Beltway contact list. As for the rest of the world, he'll just do what the White house suggests : much as Tony does.

Course we could vote for David Cameron, that'd make a difference. I'd like to laugh but I fear I might not stop.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 04:56:25 PM EST

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (4.00 / 3)

Well, I think people are missing an important facet of the story here. Gordon may well make all the same mistakes Tony did.

But Tony doesn't need to go because Gordon (or Dave) will be better. Tony needs to go as a measure of accountability for all the mistakes he has made.

He played fast and loose with intelligence over Iraq and polls indicate even then he didn't manage to carry a majority of support for the invasion he took part of.

You can add in all the other groups of people he's offended on domestic policy in various spheres.

Political accountability is a long way from any real kind of justice. If we had that he wouldn't have survived misleading Parliament on various occasions.

Still, it's important that all his little failures add up and catch up with him. Without even that, you give politicians total impunity...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 05:57:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

The executive summary -> a scapegoat to rescue Labour from electoral doom.

Iraq and the ASBOs seem to have been Blair's (socially unacceptable) baby. But New Labour has been almost entirely complicit in his mistakes. To some extent overt room to maneouver has been limited within Parliamentary sessions. But more pressure from behind the scenes could easily have reined in Tony's reign.

The party needs to grow a spine, and stop acting like the political poster child for Bush's plans for Airstrip One.

I suppose it's too much to hope that after the Blair Nightmare is over, Labour will wake from its long slumber and persuade someone sensible like John McConnell to take over.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 06:38:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

Things have been moving very fast today. Blair is not denying that he intends to resign next May. I suspect in the next few days his authority will disintegrate and force an acceleration of the timetable.

When we have a leadership contest we will have to see if any candidate comes forward with a different policy approach. More of the same may not be a very inspiring platform, but standing for something new is always a high risk strategy.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:00:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

What happens on July 26?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

The Sun story is that Blair will resign as Labour leader on 31st May 2007 and then, when a new leader has been elected, he will resign as Prime Minister on 26th July 2007.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

yes, but why the magic date?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

I know of no particular significance to the date.

It is just over 13 years since Blair became party leader on 21st July 1994 and allows him to serve more than 10 years as Prime Minister (appointed 2nd May 1997).

The period as Prime Minister is not trivial. Of all the (wholly or partially) twentieth century holders of the office only Margaret Thatcher (1979-90; 11 years 6 months) would have served longer without a break. Only the Marquess of Salisbury (1885-86, 1886-92 and 1895-1902; total 13 years 9 months) would surpass that.

Blair is already in third place behind Salisbury and Thatcher.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:43:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

His prefered option was almost certainly to announce he was to resign at the 2008 party conference so that his successor would "kiss hands" on or after 30 November. That would make his term of office a couple of days longer than Thatcher's.

As for the end of May 2007 date, it is about 3 weeks after the Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament and local government (outside London) elections. It is a "decent" delay after the 10th anniversary which would give time for his "farewell tour" but without accusations of using public funds for election campaigning.

by Londonbear on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 1)

If the Scottish, Welsh and local elections are as much of a disaster for Labour as it looks like they will be, that would not be a happy background to Blair's departure.

From what I read the opponents of Labour in Scotland will be overjoyed of Blair staggers on until May.

I agree Blair would have preferred to go after beating Mrs Thatcher's length of time in office. I think that option is now dead.

It only remains to be seen if Blair can stabilise his position now, so as to reach 2007. At the rate the 'Blair is finished' idea is spreading in the Parliamentary Labour Party today, I think the new year is a challenging target, let alone the middle of 2007.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 08:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

A unusually good piece from Nick Assinder.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 07:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

I agree that was a good article. I particularly agree with the conclusion.

"And in Westminster, things are looking more fluid and uncertain that at any previous time and it is hard to avoid the conclusion that control is slipping from the prime minister's hands".

I think if the Prime Minister wants to keep any shred of dignity he should resign immediately, so the leadership can be sorted out this year.

The more speeches Blair makes about the future, the more contempt and ridicule he will receive (particularly if the ideas are as silly as the one he has announced so far since he got back from holiday). No one cares what Blair thinks. The nation just wants to get rid of him.

by Gary J on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 08:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The last days of Prime Minister Blair? (none / 0)

Indeed.

I'd guess a poll asking if he should stay would show support below Bush's 30% RoboCon base.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Sep 5th, 2006 at 09:20:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Prime Minister Blair to resign 31 May 2007? | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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