The Northern Ireland position has developed into one of those - "you go first" "no you go first" situations. The Northern Ireland Assembly is suspended and direct rule from Westminster has been imposed because of the failure of the two main parties in the Assembly to agree on a power sharing executive. Ian Paisley's DUP will not work with Sinn Fein unless SF agree to work with the Police Service fully. SF has a traditional hosility to the police from the days of the Northern Ireland Constabulary. That was overtly sectarian on the side of the protestants and the republican movement has refused to accept a change since the NIC was abolished and the new Police Service started.

Sinn Fein has now agreed to hold an Ardesh or party conference to discuss this policing issue this month but providing there was a positive response to the decision by the two governments and the DUP. The DUP wanst action before they comment so we are in a Catch 22. If the Executive is not agreed by the end of March the governments have threatened to abandon the whole process (the exact date is a bit variable as the clock tends to be stopped in the processes, a bit like EU negotiations).

I am in two minds about this indicator. One side tells me that Blair will hang on in an attempt to make this his "legacy". The other tells me that he would not mind it going wrong but does not want to take the blame. Failure would destroy the legacy of Mo Mowlem, the late MP who was the facilitator if not the architect of the peace process. The affection she is held in after her untimely death must grate with the Dear Leader. Blair may want to resign in time for a decision to have to be taken by his successor. Resigning this month would just about make that timetable if the Leadership was uncontested.

That brings me to the second aspect. The vultures are starting to circle in an attempt to grab the best bit of his corpse, the post of PM. Brown has long been seen the obvious candidate but in a speech today John Reid was making coded indications that he would run. His theme chimed with that of Blair's New Year message to his party, that the New Labour project should continue. He also damned Brown with faint praise. Reid is likely to be the first to start floating balloons about standing in the election. This will have two effects. The speculation on timing will be constant and no government business will be noticed as the constant reports of this MP or another vying for the Leadership or Deputy will be a constant theme from now on. Every press conference and every PM Question time will have a "when are you going?" moment to get through.

May also brings the round of devolved elections and having Brown in place will leave him getting the blame for losses. That legacy thing again.