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by Jerome a Paris
This article by Lee Adler is required reading to understand what's been happening in the markets in the past few weeks. It explains why stock market prices have gone up despite the crisis and other unexpected phenomena.
Its basic contention is that the ABCP (Asset Backed Commercial Paper) market was a giant Ponzi scheme, and that it is now unravelling. ABCP is very short term debt (typically, 3 months) which is backed by other financial assets - i.e., if the borrower does not pay back, the lender can grab the asset and sell it. Suddenly, there is huge doubt in the market that the underlying assets (thinks like mortgages and an amazing variety of debt obligations or other instruments sliced and diced and repackaged) are really worth what they are, banks and other investors have suddenly stopped providing new Commercial Paper, and asking for repayment of existing lines. Thus the total notional size of the market shrank from $1,170 billion to $917 billion between early August and last week, a $255 billion decrease (or more than 20%). What that article asserts is two things:
In other terms, everybody is still trying to pretend that these assets are worth something, because everybody would be hit by the revelation of their real price, but that pretense has a cost, i.e. immobilising money, which is likely to become increasingly hard to bear. But once the floodgates open, well the whole sorry mess will become visible.
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The end of the Ponzi scheme | 11 comments (10 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)
The end of the Ponzi scheme | 11 comments (10 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)
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