The Empire's last big stick

by geezer in Paris
Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 06:40:55 AM EST

                                                           
              Or the Nuclear Overton window

Beginning well before WWII the American Empire based it's power on the three traditional pillars of empire: Military might, industrial power, and people control. As time went on, circumstances changed, and the twin events of the relocation offshore of most production and the complete triumph of a consumer culture altered the sources of imperial of power to reduce the industrial component and introduce another element- the ability to consume as a pillar of empire. As the buyer of not only last resort but best resort, the US had found a formula for control that was unique in history in it's scope. No other nation has ever gobbled up so much of the world's resources, or such a high percentage of it's manufactured goods, with so few of it's people. In 1966 the numbers that were commonly used were:

 6% of the world's people, 60% of the world's resources. Unsustainable.

Rather than wallow in the usual foodfight over the accuracy of these numbers, let's just say the balance is ---well, seemingly badly out of balance. But is it really?


The "stuff culture" was a two edged sword of incalculable power.
It became a carefully nurtured national obsession, a life's direction to die with the most toys- a reality that has not changed.

  1. Stuff-obsessed consumers are easily controlled,- they can be so ill-educated and isolated that they will do lots of things that are very much not in their best interests to do. Like die in a fraudulent war, for people and corporations they detest, for reasons they do not know.

  2. As long as the US sucked vast amounts of junk, the world could get rich making junk- and we got to pay with our fresh paper, which they sucked up. It was wonderful, it was self-perpetuating. Eureka! Shazam! And even the junk improved. A win-win---no? A universal freebie.

In a pig's arse.

In the process we ate the world. We pissed in it, we ploughed, poisoned  and planted it, we plucked, dried, rolled and smoked it, ---and, now that the ice caps are darker and the future for our children is too, that power is fading.

In 1995 we sat in a small brasserie in Paris, drank cheap beer and debated how long the US could continue to absorb so much of the world's toys. We saw rising credit card debt, stagnant real wages, the growing prevalence of home equity loans, hidden inflation gnawing away in the basement, cooked statistics carefully selected to mislead rather than inform, the giant flow of rumor-driven amateurs entering the equities markets-easy prey for the professionals who had made a career out of duping the rubes- and we decided that the end was near. Oops. Wrong--again. We did not reckon with the amazing creativity of the tame economists or the banking industry's ability to invent ways to tap ever-deeper layers of  wealth- junkbuying power- in the American people.  
But now the Empire's last major piece of buying power- the equity in the American home- is pretty well stripped. Does anyone see another source of domestic dough, that might keep the buying loop going for a while? Perhaps we are wrong again. If not- if you agree that the empire can no longer control with its buying power, then the rest follows.

Empire today rests on the two remaining pillars, military power and tight, reliable people control.

What the Neocons fear most is not the loss of political power, or the loss of the oil. They have no reason to doubt their people control. The mainstream media is theirs.
No, what they fear most is that their military toy will be revealed to be a paper tiger- that some "pissant nation full of ragheads" will fight the Empire to a standstill, ---worse, a withdrawal-- and then what do they have left?

People control-- and the bomb.

Unless the cabal of Imperial Don and Dickheads who rule America want to adopt the human wave strategy, they need to make the nuclear option available, acceptable, --even, perhaps, desirable. A good case can be made that that is a work in process.

Consider-

--What is worse, for the congress or a presidential candidate: forcing a withdrawal or admission of defeat, thereby perhaps causing the above nightmare to emerge full blown, leaving the Krystals and Cheneys of the Empire with the nuclear option as their only fig leaf, or swallowing it, and awaiting better times to begin to dismantle the potemkin village of  the neocons?

--What is worse: attempting to impeach or even chastise an irrational executive branch, however deserving, and having them thumb their nose and go to lunch, thereby revealing the bankruptcy of the congress and the constitution, or await a less rabid executive?

---Will there BE a less rabid executive?

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It's of course not only the loss of buying power that makes "stuffworld" a thing of the past, but all the rest- peak oil, global warming, resource stretch, etc.
The Empire is based on a culture of waste, and is therefore poorly positioned to retool for a world that has to adopt conservation and the necessary cooperation ethic, instead of the competition narrative that so poisons the political discourse that even the concept of the "commons" is incomprehensible.

Remember Ehrin Watada, and rejoice. There are clear and courageous voices still.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 07:04:22 AM EST
I'll be leaving in 3 days to spend 2 weeks in Washington and 1 week in Florida, all to see children and relatives and to take care of a little business. It's been seven months since I've been there.
I'll be doing the metro test to see if Washington metro riders look more depressed than Paris metro riders. When I moved to France 17 years ago Washington metro riders always seemed happier; that's was not the case recently. But the French should also be depressed now that they have Sarkozy. I've been riding the buses for the  last several months in Paris so perhaps I'm not qualified to do this test any more.
And, I'll  also explore and let you all know first hand if the collapse of the empire is imminent or we have one more good shopping spree left in us.
ATTENTION K-MART SHOPPERS!

I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 10:49:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Take that camera and do a visual story for us on that very subject. The Paris metro is a great sea of stories.
I'm trying to teach myself to tell stories with a camera using multiple frames instead of just a single shot. Not easy.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 12:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The plain and unambiguous law that allows you to photograph in public places will be ignored if some cop wants to bust you as a terrorist.  

It has already happened.  

by Gaianne on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 02:42:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aiee. Incredible.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:54:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmm, I ride the Metro every day.  We seem to be a pretty happy lot at reasonable hours (but, granted, not at 4.30 in the morning), although that probably has a great deal to do with the fact that the route I'm on gives us a clear view of the poor bastards in their shiny, new, mortgage-backed SUVs stuck on 395 coming in from outside the Beltway.  (The housing crash out in the suburbs makes it doubly entertaining.)

Plus, we're all federal workers, so we ride for free.  $3/gallon gas?  Not so much.  Let it go to $10 and bankrupt half the city for all I care.

I'm not sure Metro riders are a good barometer.  They're, I'd bet, more likely to be the ones who weren't so stupid that they borrowed up to their necks during the liquidity flood.  They are, after all, the ones with the brainpower necessary to see that only raving lunatics drive in DC.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 08:16:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew, for some reason I didn't realize you were in DC, I thought you were still in Florida.  If I'd known that, I would have dropped you a line when I was in town this summer. :-(

Hmmmm, sounds like the Yellow Line, sah?

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 08:40:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aw, that's too bad.  I owe you a bottle of wine, if I remember correctly.  Indeed, I escaped Florida quite some time ago, although I'd seriously think about returning (North Florida especially) if the opportunity presented itself.

Yep, Yellow Line from Huntington, where members of the Cocktail Circuit dare not venture.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 08:48:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You do?  Crap, if I'd remembered that, I would definitely have called. ;-b

I should be back for a while in a couple of months.  We can give it a shot then, if you haven't fled for warmer climes....

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 09:13:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Warmer climates?  I think the low yesterday was three hundred thousand degrees Fahrenheit.  This damned city makes Miami feel like Anchorage.  I'm seriously thinking about Norway's Arctic coast after living here.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 07:42:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But, yes, if the omnipotent idiocy hasn't driven me out by then, -- I'm hoping to at least stick around, popcorn in hand, to watch these pricks fry in the housing collapse -- let me know when you're here.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 07:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe we need this to be updated ?

The concept that socialisation has to be linked to business relationships is a great victory for business relationships, not for socialisation...
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 08:53:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tried the link twice, over a two hour period--does not work. Whazzat?

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 11:53:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A map of ET users, started in this thread. A bit outdated I'd guess.

The concept that socialisation has to be linked to business relationships is a great victory for business relationships, not for socialisation...
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have you read this essay The Martini and Maggot Guide to Politics? Your commuter comment to me is a poignant reminder.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by MarketTrustee (pbing@estudioinc.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 01:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gah, I posted my reply to you as a reply to LEP, Trustee.  It's down a few.  I enjoyed the diary.  Thanks.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 07:46:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I usually arrive at Dulles and take the train from West Falls Church downtown. That line is where I get my first impressions. This time, however, I'm  arriving at downtown National so my study will be somewhat flawed. But I will be doing a lot of metro riding from downtown to Maryland and back. If the moods of subway riders accurately reflected current day politics, everyone should be very depressed. When I was there last time there was some hope that the Democrats would do something with their newly gained power. There is no longer much hope on that front.

I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:37:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was one of the most brilliant description of DC's political economy I've ever read.  It's not quite that simple, though.  To be sure, there exists an aristocratic gang in DC; and, yes, they all live in and around Georgetown -- once a wonderful area, and now nothing but ugly, over-priced clothing stores and shitty restaurants.

I think he's more wrong than right about Alexandria and Chevy Chase, although I have very little experience with the latter.  Those are largely middle-class areas pumped up by a ton of investment designed to grab aristocrat dollars from the District.  Incomes are high in both ($60-70k median as I recall), but prices are sky-high and the incomes are nowhere near what you'd find in Georgetown, where studio apartments sell at close to seven figures.  (Seven figures, even by the ridiculously small standards of Washington, buys a hell of a lot of house in Alexandria.)  Alexandria is more a college-student and young-professional kind of area, with some older natives -- blue- and white-collars who managed to get on the property ladder before the DC market took off into the stratosphere -- sprinkled in.  Chevy Chase is a bit older, but similar from what little I've seen.  The possible exception is Old Town (the area that everyone thinks of immediately when Alexandria is mentioned even though it's such a small chunk of the city), which is unbelievably wealthy.

I'd disagree about the Northwest suburbs of Baltimore.  They're cheaper than DC because of the fact that it's Baltimore -- DC's crackwhore sister.  It wreaks of rotten fish and, whenever I've visited, it's been nearly impossible to see through the smog across Inner Harbor (all one or two hundred yards of it).  Unemployment and crime are sky-high.  (I'd still take it over Georgetown, though.)

It really is just the area in and around Georgetown that captures the aristocratic element.  The Washington Cocktail Circuit area.  Those who live in the District outside of that area are generally hoping to get there.  Those of us who don't live in the District love to mock it, being unimpressed by the hoighty-toighty garbage it's all about.  It's essentially London, for three times the price and no personality.

I love the last paragraph, and especially the last line.  Amen.  I hate martinis, and I'll be God-damned if I'm paying a million bucks for some shitcan condo.  Guinness and grungy apartment for me any day.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 07:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The commuters from the Orange line out at West Falls and Vienna would likely be depressed.  That's Ground Zero on the housing market.  It's all dependent upon where in DC you are.  The Green and Yellow lines -- the Prole lines -- will be happy.  The Red Line will be depressed, with all the once-"rich" Maryland residents having seen their wealth evaporate over the last year.  The Blue and Orange lines will be mixed, depending on which end of them you're on (Maryland happy, Virginia sad).

That's the economic side.  The political side is all-depressed, since the West-of-the-Park crowd (only area where you'll really find Republicans) doesn't ride the subway.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 07:53:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To be honest, I've come to the stark conclusion that the US Govt, or at least cheney, actually want to have a resource war to show that they really are the maddest kids on the block and that everybody else better step away from the candy box.

Bush has constantly said that he wants to deal with Iran before the end of 2008. And Hilary has already backed him and the Dems have given him an AUMF. Brown in the UK has doffed his cap, so we're now waiting for the most politically appropriate moment.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 11:53:29 AM EST
When is the Democratic conference?

As we journey through life, we should keep an iron grip, to the very end, on the capacity for silliness. It preserves the soul from dessication.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 11:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(with a few exceptions who get routinely ignored).  Think Laval and Petain in 1940.  
by Gaianne on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 02:38:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Geez, Helen- of course they want a resource war---they already have one. And there are two others on the horizon. Iran, of course, and I think Venezuela.

They have the tiger's tail, and they dare not let go.  

And there is not a single viable candidate who has even hinted about a real course change for the empire.


Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 12:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They can't.

The system is such that they can't change direction. That's the problem.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 12:25:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly true.

Kucinich is a valiant fighter. Sure would like to see what might happen-- but no. I like him.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 12:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great diary... and well .. rant.. the tenets of Us power ahve became clear.. or ahve been moved that wasy and make it clear.. unfortunately it was not a good option in the real world.. adn it has only advanced a multipolar world.

The nuclear bomb is useless when russia and chian can destroy you as fast as you could...

And the military is completely cracked down..

Attacking Iran woudl only advance the end of the US (if Iran reacts as one woudl expect) at the rpice of a huge number of casualties  and pain in other areas of the world.. icnluding the ameican middle class..

And I still think that they will not bomb Iran.. because the oligarchy in the US would feel the consequences of this action.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 01:44:35 PM EST
"The nuclear bomb is useless when russia and chian can destroy you as fast as you could..."

Consider one bomb, small, used in a low-population area against what is said to be a site developing nuclear-weapons for terrorists. What would be the reprisals? More important, what would be the reprisals expected by people who thought the Iraqis would be our friends? What would be the benefits anticipated (by those same people) regarding U.S. power?

I don't know. I wish the answer were clear and reassuring. As it is...(-puke-)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 03:16:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The consequences are not predictable.

I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 03:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point- my view exactly, and better said than I did in my reply to Kcurie. Still, ---read the Chalmers Johnson quote.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:25:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The saddest part is that I expect European governments to look the other way if tactical nukes are used.

We have met the enemy, and it is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2007 at 01:10:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The nuclear bomb is useless when russia and chian can destroy you as fast as you could...

Thanks for commenting, Kcurie.
First, it goes without saying that they will not attack a nuclear state---that's why the Empire wants so powerfully to keep the numbers of nuclear states to a  minimum. Bullies do not attack people carrying a big stick. And of course Iran wants the bomb. They'd be crazy not to.

Second, You impute rational behavior to the administration- that they would not want to be destroyed, that deterrence still functions. I think you are in error there. Putin is a gutsy bastard, but I think the neocons think he may not want to really step into the confrontational quagmire, -even if we nuked someone.

It's partly a matter of language- the Cons speak their own language, with all the symbols neatly edited to give the answers they want-- and perhaps partly Helen's point--that it seems that they want to prove they are just loon-crazy so no one will dare cross them.

Armageddon before failure?
Death before dishonor?

A dirt-common reaction, when reality proves you wrong.

And I still think that they will not bomb Iran.. because the oligarchy in the US would feel the consequences of this action.

Here's a quote from Chalmers Johnson's second book on the Empire, "The sorrows of Empire: Militarism,Secrecy and the end of the Republic":

"With the end of the cold war, we resumed our march toward Empire. Our 1999 war against Serbia, our two wars with Iraq, and our war against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda allowed us to expand our empire of overseas bases into the broad southern Eurasian region stretching from the Balkans in the west to the Chinese border in the East, an oil-rich area that opened up to our imperial dreams after the demise of the Soviet Union. Iran is now the only serious obstacle to our domination of the whole region.

Just how badly do they want to dominate the whole region? Badly.

Finally, the last few years are replete with examples of US policies without the kind of rational basis that outsiders would like to see.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:23:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am not as pessimistic as that... regardign Iran...

If russia and CHian do nto want Iran attacked.. ti will not be attacked...but the main point of course is if the neocons can really do wahtever they want int he US... I am doubtful about that...

But ei.. I am optimsitic on that side..

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 06:14:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You may be right.
Recent events suggest that the balance is shifting away from the superhawks--the bats in Cheney's belfrey, you might call them, seem to be losing ground some. If we ever hear the true history of the internal debate about Iran, I bet it will be savage.

In my lightweight and ancient history analysis of the forces at work and the players in this debate, I underweighted the reluctance of the US military to get into the nuclear game- or the Iranian quagmire. Perhaps the general staff's ongoing obstructionism helps to explain the full-court press to "fundamentalize" them.

In any case, first use of even one small nuke moves the nuke from the category of doomsday device into the category of a tactical weapon--a heavy-handed one, perhaps, but just another one. Then it's a different, darker world.

Ironic that the military seems to be a force, at the moment, for military restraint.

Perhaps this is why George Soros, in his latest book, says he believes the danger of nuclear use is higher now than it ever was during the cold war, with the exception of a couple weird and anomalous moments.  

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 03:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Finally, the last few years are replete with examples of US policies without the kind of rational basis that outsiders would like to see.

Perfectly rational, in fact - keep oil prices high by keeping Iraqi oil in the ground, enrich cronies through military spending, use the same old war rhetoric crap to pretend that domestic surveillance and 'anti-terrorism' measures are 'necessary.'

Even Afganistan makes sense. Someone has to make money from the opium, and it might as well not be the Taleban.

As for Bin Laden - six years and still sending the tapes in. What would they do without him?

The rational basis is only missing if you assume that the stated goals are the real goals. But these are republicans we're talking about, so the real goals will always be money and abuse, and the stated goals - national security - will always be naked but expedient lies.

In their own way, they're completely consistent.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aargh. Good point.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 03:21:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"I think the neocons think he may not want to really step into the confrontational quagmire, -even if we nuked someone."

I should have added that real deterrence is a two-way street. What was it that John Bolton said? "I don't do diplomacy." or something close.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:39:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that the renewed SDI program "against Iran" is primarily planned to get worldwide first-strike capability back. But it's probably one of the wet dreams of military planners that won't come true (for a long time, at least).

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 05:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is the Social Security lockbox. Bush tried to have a go at it in 2005 but failed. Thry might yet try again.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 04:33:47 PM EST
Good call, Jerome.  To chart the future of the US Economy you should simply look at the history of our largest corporations over the 20th century.  I too feel we are in the pension-raiding phase.
by paving on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 05:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I returned to my (temporary) hometown after a few days visiting friends and relations north and south, only to see a newspaper headline on my way to work this morning that announced in large bold print, [State] Treasurer Suggests Privatizing UC System.

The UC System here means "the University of California," in other words, my employer.

I am not making this stuff up, you know...

And the very first thing I thought was O Gawd, there goes my pension.  Because looting the pension fund is very often a prime motive for corporatovultures devouring public institutions:  it's like the rich soft liver full of nutrients, to be torn steaming from the gutted carcass while the rest is left to rot.

I hope public opposition will be strong enough to put this idiocy back in the neocon box it arrived in... but the tide is generally flowing the wrong way.

trivial personal whining:
I surely do wish the Canadians had let me in a year ago :-(  More and more I feel I've left it too late.  The USD was just below 1.5 to 1 CAD when I first started applying for a visa, my house was "worth" (ha ha) almost $600K USD in the real estate manic peak, and one could buy an old 30 acre apple farm in coastal BC for $300K CAD;  now the USD is at par and may sink lower, my house might if I'm lucky and if I can sell it at all, be worth $450K, and that same apple farm would sell for $750K to $1M thanks to the tar sands goldrush-cum-boondoggle.  Read the numbers and weep...  hell, it was all imaginary money anyway (all money is) -- and unearned at that, so not to gripe too much.   but still...  a little bureaucratic delay during unstable times can cost a bundle in lost opportunities.


The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 07:09:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a better link to UC story

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 07:12:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Intense read, thanks.  And harsh!

So far UC's efforts to privatize have been selectively applied to certain parts of the institution, such as:

-Higher fees at professional schools.

UC's business, law and medical schools, moving toward greater financial self-sufficiency, say higher tuition is necessary to stay competitive.

At the Haas School of Business, total fees could hit $40,882 by 2010-11. At Boalt Law School, fees will jump from $26,897 this year to $40,906 in 2010-11.

Former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell, the Bank of America dean of the Haas School of Business, told UC Regents that top business schools around the country now charge much more than UC. Of students, "it's reasonable to ask that they pay the market rate," he said.

No longer roles for the proles at the heights of medicine, law, and business.

Medicine must be extra-harsh, as it costs a lot to train a person to be a skilled medician--but always money first....

....not good...

I dunno....won't Canada be put under intense pressure to go the same way--the money arriving from the states, and the people, will build pressure?

(I mean, I've never been to either but I have maps)

I'm reminded again of that russian guy, I think you linked to him then melo did, I caught melo's link, the guy who compared the USSR to the USA--in terms of how they were equipped to cope with economic collapse.

When I read about your house price dropping and the sense of a vice tightening, I thought of some guy (it was a guy) who has the same sensations in re: his McMansion, his investments, his job....whoooosh!  With an SUV and ten miles to the nearest small shop, maybe, (heh!  Now fantasy takes over...)

A question: has it got to the point where the majority are awake (you know) but power has moved away, or is there still a majority who are asleep but tossing and turning...ach...ya know, I always liked the idea of the boat...maybe add the South Seas, or the coast of Alaska and points south and west (when the weather's okay)...finding the good ports, a house at the harbour...and then those huge storms....woah!

Well, thanks for the info!  Much appreciated.

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 07:50:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, Canada is under immense pressure.  The elites of Canada, US and Mexico seem to have been for some time quietly planning an Anschluss (a North American superstate with a common currency, the Amero).  One feels instinctively -- or I do anyway -- that this is a typical Mafia bargain: elites in Mex and Can want to repress their local populations and resinstitute dictatorial or aristo rule, and need US technology, weapons, and troops to do so (cf House of Saud), and US elites want to get their mitts on natural resources (Can) and cheap labour (Mex) in exchange for rentathug services to the comprador class in each country (cf House of Saud).

I hope that the destabilisation caused by peak oil and climate change will make a mockery of their grandiose ambitions;  we might as well get some benefit from it.  Harper, the neothugs' agent in Canuckistan, has already made noises about destroying the national healthcare system (didn't go over well), wants to increase Canadian troop presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, and is currently working on recriminalising marijuana and increasing incarceration rates generally.  Needless to say there are authoritarian elements w/in the police and judiciary who are all for this.  Can is also increasingly under pressure to bar anyone the Bush regime doesn't like from entering the country (Medea Benjamin was just recently declared "criminal" by Can border patrol and denied entrance).  I hope the Canadians will toss Harper and his bloodyminded minority govt out on their ear RSN, but never underestimate electoral fraud...

You're thinking of Dmitry Orlov who wrote persuasively and wittily on the parallels between the fall of the FSU and the projected pratfall of the US.  Great essay, linked to several times in various threads.

I have had that sense of the vise tightening or the door closing for many years now -- since 2000 a nasty uneasy sensation about the stolen election, and far more intense anxiety since the Reichstag Fire in 2001 -- escalating "police state" signals, plus escalating indicators of peak oil and climate derangement.  I knew the housing bubble was going to pop, but expected the Bushies to keep it going "somehow" until the 2008 election cycle.

the local mortgage company in my town just went bankrupt after 50 years in business.  now they belong to some faceless transnational...  the truly rich don't lose money in a recession;  they sit tight and buy other people's stuff at distress sale prices.  the vise tightens a bit more.  a recession is just a way for ownership to concentrate even further.  as Ran Prieur among others has noted, we are living in a ratcheting system that has no reset mechanism other than a devastating crash.  its end state is dystopian and its reset mechanism is dystopian.  bleak outlook.

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2007 at 08:14:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is, that it will happen and is a good thing.  

I think he understands, better than most of us, the alternative . . .

by Gaianne on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 02:47:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The elites of Canada, US and Mexico seem to have been for some time quietly planning an Anschluss (a North American superstate with a common currency, the Amero).  One feels instinctively -- or I do anyway -- that this is a typical Mafia bargain: elites in Mex and Can want to repress their local populations and resinstitute dictatorial or aristo rule, and need US technology, weapons, and troops to do so (cf House of Saud), and US elites want to get their mitts on natural resources (Can) and cheap labour (Mex) in exchange for rentathug services to the comprador class in each country (cf House of Saud).

Ah yes, the North American Union, a US nativist conspiracy theory promoted by shock jock Glenn Beck, who says that "this huge globalist conglomerate would terminate U.S. sovereignty; make us beholden to the socialists to the North, and the Third World mother-raping beggar/bandits to the South". I don't know whether those are Beck's exact words, but if it's an accurate reflection of his thinking he appears to believe that the NAU will be run by and for the Canadian "socialists" and Mexican "beggar/bandits" rather than the corporate élites of the three countries.

Between the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Security and Prosperity Partership, there does appear to be a grain of truth to the NAU thing, but it's probably best to stick to the real conspiracies and not the imagined ones.

by Gag Halfrunt on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 09:13:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if V Fox admits to it on TV, it hardly seems like a secret conspiracy :-)  the US is a textbook imperial hegemon and does not easily tolerate any shared border with states it doesn't control or annex;  that doesn't seem like obscure conspiracy blueskying to me, but basic games theory with plenty of historical precedent (Texas anyone?)...  so its elites will try to control and/or annex anything sharing a land border, or any islands w/in its perceived "zone of interest" (Hawai'i, Philippines)... how they go about it (overt or covert, legally or by armed force) is another matter.  the Isthmus of Panama makes a good "defensible causeway" to the mediaeval mindset of the imperialists, and the trend of US history points to a conquest of the entire N Am continent including Cuba and Mexico.  Empires tend to collapse if they do not grow...

and just because conspiracy fruitcakes seize on a government agenda and spin it into their own fear-fantasies, that doesn't mean that the agenda isn't in place.  Blackwater f'rexample really is a black-ops mercenary force operating unaccountably on the taxpayer's dollar (and with complete impunity) both in Iraq and inside the US (NOLA);  whether they are going to come and round up all the leftists into camps, or come and take the guns away from all the righty gun nuts, is idle speculation -- but they do exist and they do serve as a private(ised) army for the permanent elite, that seems well established regardless of what fears they awaken in the hearts of different demographics among those who have half an eye open.

conspiracy nutters are so useful to the badguys on their corporo-governo-thrones that one has to suspect at times they are cultivated and funded by the PR agencies and the CIA :-)  they are the Boys (and very few Girls) Who Cry Wolf, making an exaggerated cartoon out of real evidence, and hence discrediting the perceptions of more moderate and sober people who are looking at the same real evidence.  it's a beautiful example of currency debasement, whether calculated or accidental... in the same way that fundamentalists feed a complete contempt for every manifestation of religion in impatient minds, the conspiracy enthusiasts feed a weary dismissal of all suspicions and skepticisms about official stories (even when the official stories are patently a tissue of lies).  conspiracy theorists are the world's best camouflage for real conspiracies...

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
conspiracy theorists are the world's best camouflage for real conspiracies...

Simple yet powerful.

I have thought for several years that the whole "Tinfoil hat" meme was perfect camoflage for the real chains of events --the signal that can be teased from the huge noise level of the PNACheads. But it sure motivates one to triple-check, and consider other ways to assemble the pieces, and that's a good thing.


Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 02:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but:  There is nothing in the Social Security lockbox but IOUs from other government agencies with no ability to repay.  

In business this is called embezzlement.  But under Republicans, its just business.  (In truth, the Democrats did this too, but back then there was the possibility that the money might come from SOMEWHERE.  That was back  before 2/3 of the Government expenditures were taken off the books.  Indeed, Clinton even raised a surplus.)  

Would foreigners really pay for IOUs drawn on, say, the Department of Housing and Urban Development?  

Of course, the part of the scheme is to divert the current stream of Social Security payroll taxes.  

So there is the big question:  Will Americans continue to pay their Social Security taxes WHILE the taxes are being stolen?  (Of course they will.)  

by Gaianne on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 03:03:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can see that the transfer of the social security bundle into the equities market (as is the plan) will maintain the flow of money from the middle class to the oligarchs. What I don't see is how that maintains the third leg of the empire-the ability for the US buying public- the middle class- to buy the world's stuff.

Yes- the oligarchs will have a windfall- but we long ago laid to rest the "trickle-down" trick.

No, I think that without a serious infusion of cash into the middle class- the stuff-buying class, the power of stuff will be soon seriously weakened.

And it's not just the ability to maintain the US position of buyer of best resort that is lost, but the absolutely central tool of US social control that's lost. Once the stuff begins to go away, ---just what will all those stuff-addicted consumers consume?

Stuff eats life. That's it's most important purpose.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 03:41:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune - The Empire's last big stick
As the buyer of not only last resort but best resort, the US had found a formula for control that was unique in history in it's scope.

I feel this whole consumer of last resort thing to be a bit selfserving. A reminder of Ancien Régime.

"It is your fault we have to consume so much. Feel grateful. Burp!"

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Oct 24th, 2007 at 05:52:48 PM EST
I don't understand. I blame no outside element- we did this to ourselves, and I think the US consumer was the first (willing) victim.

Building consumer societies became the developmental model that ate the world, and Neoliberalism is just the explanatory theology. I think there are psychological and perhaps even genetic reasons why we as a species have such a weakness for "stuff"--my wife called it "the crow in us"--but I also think it's elevation to the status of a pillar of empire was at least partly fortuitous- the whole riding mower/weed whip/jet ski/ipod mentality morphed, I think, from a quite conscious way to keep the proles (like me) busy and in line at home, into the great maw that keeps the Chinese developmental "miracle"  cranking out stuff, and stashing our paper. First, WE got hooked. Now THEY are  doubly hooked.
And it is, of course, a fatal habit. For everyone.
It's also over- or soon will be.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 05:32:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I fear I was not very clear. I was refering to the concept of the consumer of last resort as a sort of provider of a service to the producers.

As I see it, the imperial center always gets stuff sent to them, that is the whole point of the empire. In any halfway stable system they hide it under some formula where the center can argue that they provide peace/stability/divine order/management/financial services/what not. Thus the books can look square, 1 denarius of security for one denarius of security. The thriving center can even hand out bits of stuff to the provinces (that really provide them) as aid, and go on about how the poor regions need to get their act together. When the core has lost so much power that the books can no longer be cooked properly and the empire is breaking, the rethoric becomes ever more ludicrous. To me the concept of "consumer of last resort" is right up there with "let them eat cakes".

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 04:17:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of the Democrats' many gross miscalculations, surely the worst is thinking Bush will step down in 2009 or that his replacement will be better.  

Whether or not Bush is dragged kicking and screaming from the Oval Office that January, one thing that is sure is that his replacement will NOT be better.  

His replacement will be chosen for the ability to implement the next phase.  

by Gaianne on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 03:09:14 AM EST
Show us a little American optimism.
Somewhere over the rainbow
Way up high
There's a land that I heard of
Once in a lullaby

Somewhere over the rainbow
Skies are blue
And the dreams that you dare to dream
Really do come true

Some day I'll wish upon a star
And wake up where the clouds are far behind me
Where troubles melt like lemondrops
Away above the chimney tops
That's where you'll find me

Somewhere over the rainbow
Bluebirds fly
Birds fly over the rainbow
Why then, oh why can't I?



I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 03:58:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I could while away the hours
Conferrin with the flowers
Consultin with the rain
And my head i'd be scratchin
While my thoughts were busy hatchin
If i only had a brain

I'd unravel any riddle
For any individd-el
In trouble or in pain
With the thoughts i'd be thinkin
I could be another lincoln
If i only had a brain.

:-)

Seriously,--take the camera, and tell us a story about the New York Metro.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Washington D.C. metro. If I feel I won't get busted or attacked by an irate passenger. Otherwise my words will have to do.

I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 05:10:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that's likely, but not set in stone. A true gesture of resistance from Europe -or from anywhere- might alter the equation. Is it not ironic that Putin might turn out to be the real key here? Because no one else seems to have the stomach to confront the bully.

Needs doing.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 04:46:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think an attack on Iran, especially with European help (regardless of Kuchner's chest thumping) will not happen.  My reasons. If China feels an attack is imminent it will tank the American and worldwide bond markets just by offering at market value, say $50 billion of  U.S Treasuries it holds. If that happens, America will have a lot more problems than Iran possibly having a nuke 10 years out.
The other threat is that Russia can turn of the gas pipeline to Europe in, say January because of severe maintenance problems. What can Europe do: sue for breach of contract?
The moral of the story: "if you're going to attack a certain country, don't become too dependent upon their allies.
Maybe that's a good song for America: "If I only had a brain." Of course, America could also use a heart right now.

I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 05:24:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hope you're right. And-- yes. A little heart would be nice too.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 06:14:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another thought:
The meltdown is coming- it's just a question of when.

What is the usual response when some idiot makes a left turn across four lanes of traffic, and three angry people slide to a halt, saving his worthless ass?

He flips the bird to them all.

The American first response (perhaps the human response) to domestic mistakes is to deny them ---and then externalize them--find a villain.

China will be the villain of choice, since it's the big threat to the Empire, if you view the situation from the position of the old-guard players at the game of power.
China may not want to do anything to validate this- since all they have to do is wait.

Mig---
What was it the poet said, in "Canticle for Leibowitz" when he showed up at the Abbot's feast with a goat in tow?
"There'll be need of a goat here soon."

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Tue Oct 23rd, 2007 at 06:31:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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