Global Warming didn't light California's Fires, but did fan the flames ...

by a siegel
Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 03:11:31 PM EST

When discussing any particular disaster and its relationship to Global Warming, one needs to be cautious, to avoid saying "Global Warming caused X" as it is quite difficult to show a direct cause and effect relationship with a global trend to any particular activity. Thus, stronger storms are correlated with rising temperature which correlated with a storm like Katrina.  Did Global Warming cause Katrina?  Who knows?  Was Katrina's strength, differentiation from past storms, within what Global Warming analysis/modeling suggests could happen? Yes.

Well, be careful if anyone says that Global Warming "caused" the California fires.  On the other hand, it seems clear that Global Warming is a contributing factor to the conditions in which the storms have occurred.


The RWSM blame game; Global Warming not involved

The right wing sound machine is having a field day with screaming messages blaming loony "damned environmentalists" for creating the conditions for the wildfires while strongly denying the potential for Global Warming as a contributing factor.  No surprise that that stalwart of great journalism, Glenn Beck, provides a premier example of this (also providing yet another reason why CNN should stop giving him a soap box).  

Now, by the way, as to enviromentalists impacting clearing brush and thus contributing to the fire, according to the Forest Fire's tracking website, there have been zero (ZERO) appeals of fuels reduction projects in the southern California national forests in the last ten years.  Appeals are a prerequisite to litigation, so the same goes for litigation.

As this suggests, Glenn Beck and others simply are spouting talking points disconnected with facts, truthiness rather than truth.  They are, sadly, given loudspeakers for disseminating their dangerous truthiness.  

Returning to Reality
The scientific analysis of US fire records clearly show changed patterns, with a strong correlation in terms of increased fires and Global Warming trends.

As per Daniel James Brown's OPED yesterday, Smarter ways to handle fire,

increased fuel loads in our wild lands are only one element of a converging series of fire-related threats that now challenge us in unprecedented ways. Our penchant for building homes in fire-prone areas is another obvious and much-discussed factor. And a third, now undeniable, one is the role that global warming plays in raising ambient temperatures, promoting drought in already drought-prone regions and lengthening our fire seasons.

Global Warming is not the cause of forest fires, but helps create the conditions, fan the flames for them.

Tom Setnam, a University of Arizona Professor and a leading 'fire ecologist', notes that

"The fire season in the last 15 years or so has increased more than two months over the whole Western U.S. So actually 78 days of average longer fire season in the last 15 years compared to the previous 15 or 20 years ..."

Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Univ of Arizona combiend work looked at the forest fires from 11 Western states over a 34 year period "and found the number of fires increased in size and severity since 1987, the same year that spring and summer temperatures began to rise."  They examined every forest fire that burned at least 1000 acres from 1970 through 2003.  Of 1166 fires in that period, nearly 900 occurred after 1987 -- e.g, 80% after the mid-point in time.  And, well, "they also found that air temperatures from 1987 to 2003 were 1.6 degrees higher than during the previous 17 years; that 6.5 times more acreage burned during that warmer period."

According to the head of the US Government's firefighting programs, "We got records going back to 1960 of the acres burned in America. So, that's 47 fire seasons. Seven of the 10 busiest fire seasons have been since 1999."

Very simply, from the National Wildlife Federation's analysis of Global Warming's likely impact on the American West, Fueling the Fire,

Another serious consequence of global warming in the West is an increase in the incidence andseverity of wildfires, a problem made even worse by decades of fire suppression, extensive grazing and other factors.  ... there has been a four-fold increase in the number of major fires each year and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned since 1986 compared to the period between 1970-1986.

One study, for example, projects that the overall area of acreage burned will double in size across 11 western states if the average summertime temperature increases 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit between 2070-2100.

Just yesterday, in a speech to the Society of American Foresters

U.S. Forest Service chief Gail Kimbell says the nation can expect more wildfires like the ones raging through Southern California as global climate change heats up the world's forests.

"Fires are burning hotter and bigger, becoming more damaging and dangerous to people and to property," Kimbell said Wednesday. "Each year the fire season comes earlier and lasts longer."


And, Kimball warned of other Global Warming impacts in the speech, such as greater vulnerability to invasive species.  (Guess Kimball's speech somehow slipped through the White House's continued proclivity to edit scientific fact and truth out of agency commentary.)

Cause and Effect?Again, it is impossible to state that Global Warming did or did not cause the California wildfires.

The flames that we see on television.  The burned homes. The billowing smoke clouds.  Global Warming is not the cause ... or at least not the sole cause.

Global Warming did, however, contribute to the conditions for these fires and, well, could be said to be <u>fanning their flames</u>.

It is time to stop fanning the flames.

We must STOP FANNING THE FLAMES!!!

We
CAN
help make the
Globe
Energy Smart.

ENERGIZE AMERICA?


NOTES

* Related material at Energy Smart.

For other, excellent, looks at this issue, see Joe Romm at Climate Progress and Dave at Orcinus.

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Seduced by a four-year old memo described in an article linked to from the Drudge Report, 'Fox anchors spread fears of al Qaeda link to California fires.' More on 'Fanning Fear's Flames,' which includes a clip that inspired the observation: 'Bush's demagoguery knows no bounds.'
Cursor.org this day

more details here (carpetbagger)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 05:41:52 PM EST
News outlets like Foxnews are noisy about suspected arsonist arrests.

5 Arrested For Arson in Southern California

At least five people have been arrested for arson since wildfires broke out across Southern California this week, but none has been linked to any of the major blazes, authorities said Thursday.

[The] latest arrest came Wednesday after witnesses spotted 41-year-old Catalino Pineda starting a fire on a San Fernando Valley hillside and then walking away, Los Angeles police said.

Witnesses alerted authorities and followed him to a nearby restaurant where police arrested him.

Pineda, a Guatemala native, was booked for investigation of arson and held on $75,000 bail. He's currently on probation for making excessive false emergency reports to law enforcement, police said.

Two others, an adult and a juvenile were arrested Tuesday for allegedly starting a small fire in the San Diego suburb of Vista. Still two more arrested in San Bernardino County earlier this week were charged with arson counts for setting blazes.

A sixth man was shot to death by police after he fled officers who approached to see if he might be trying to set a fire.

In Orange County, authorities declared arson as the cause of a 23,000-acre blaze based on evidence showing two distinct ignition points.

It is unspeakably heinous to set up more blazes during a major fire, for sure.

On the other hand, the maximal rage of California fires has nothing to do with initial causes, be it an arson set. The conditions were drought and warmer temperatures for unusually longer time. Whatever initial cause there may be, there is high risk of small blazes escalating. And the risk for these conditions is increasing with global warming - it must be difficult to argue against that.

by das monde on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 09:45:42 PM EST
The evidence for increased risk of major fires is there. There were recent fires in Greece and Portugal. And watch out Australia again at around Christmas time...

I wonder is there a website which collects occurrences of natural disasters and their consequences. If a major prediction of climate change is increased frequency of extreme events, there must be an ongoing study and data collection. With more normal times quite behind us, and the public attention span of just a month or two, it is hard to use the frequency argument without historical and statistical data.

by das monde on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 09:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For data acquisition there is Nasa's Natural Hazard Earth Observatory which documents these events. For statistical analysis you'd have to search for specific studies in the literature.

You could also check the ESA (European Space agency) site. During the fires in Greece this summer, I posted a graph showing their analysis of fire frequency in several european countries

by Fete des fous on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 03:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some percentage of the fires sound to be arson.

Yet, as you point out, arson has only a marginal relationship to extent / threat of fire. (We can create scenarios where an arson-started fire would be more prone to a rapid start/conflagration ... but this is 'in certain' circumstances.)

Your last paragraph -- spot on. Thank you.

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 06:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The conditions were drought and warmer temperatures for unusually longer time.

It doesn't change fondamentally your argument viz the role of climate change in increasing fire intensity but for the sake of accuracy, let me interject that temperatures were not noticeably above the long-term mean in southern Cal during 2007. Warmer temperatures in previous years did play a role insofar much vegetation died and provided fuel for the current fires.

Last 90 days (Aug-Sept-Oct) temperature and anomaly:

and the same for May-June-July:

by Fete des fous on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 02:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, the summer of 2006 in California was dryer. Another important factor was that the previous 2 summer were very hot there, especially 2004. In North West Australia, that is a recurrent pattern: fires keep minimal vegetation in check, and every "wet" year is followed by an active fire season there.

Some food for though for the Lovelock-type doomsayers: extreme weather phenomena must be requiring special conditions to occur - say, hot waters and cool upper atmosphere for hurricanes, or pecially alternating wet and dry seasons for great fires. Can we observe that special conditions for extreme phenomena are occurring with "suspicious" regularity (rather than in chaotic sequence)? Can we make falsifiable theories from here that Mother Nature could be "really" fighting the new anthropogenic stresses in rather "expert" ways?

by das monde on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 05:44:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the second sentence, I mean:

Another important factor was that the previous 2 summer were very wet there, especially 2004.

Sorry for bad typo.

by das monde on Mon Oct 29th, 2007 at 07:52:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was a little surprised to read that California had seen both drier and wetter years. I expecially expected that So-Cal would be overall drier, but there it is.

I'd think that conditions for extreme meteorology are occuring with greater regularity insofar the average of weather phenoms has moved toward what we consider extreme relative to the past. Chaotic behavior will continue to occur about the evolving mean, but I am not sure I am addressing your comment.

by Fete des fous on Tue Oct 30th, 2007 at 11:46:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I quite agree with this blog:

[As pointed out] at Open Left, environmental groups haven't been very quick off the mark in responding to the California wildfires and framing them as a climate disaster.

Whether it's Katrina, Rita, the 2003 wildfires, 2004 Florida hurricanes, or any of the numerous other climate disasters of recent years, environmental groups have been slow. It's true that you can't tie any particular climate disaster directly to global warming -- but it's easy enough to acknowledge that and then talk about how these kinds of disasters will become more frequent and more intense as the climate crisis worsens ... and then turn the conversation to solutions.

Mostly, environmentalists have been timid because they're afraid right wingers will accuse them of "exploiting" the tragedies, but environmental groups shouldn't decide what to say or not say on the basis of a few fringe anti-environmentalists. Framing these events as climate disasters directs the conversation and forces the media to address the question, rather than continuing with the "Mother Nature strikes again" stories they usually run. If we let the right wing define what we say, we'll be 100 percent mute, 100 percent of the time. It's kind of a ridiculous strategy.

You've got to talk when people are paying attention. It's nice to release thoughtful, hard-hitting reports about how the climate is increasing the likelihood of wildfires during the rainy season. But it really doesn't matter if no one cares when the report is released. You've got to drive the point home while people actually care about wildfires (same true for hurricanes, droughts, etc.).

Let me give an example. In 2003, I was working on forest protection. Then, as now, some environmental groups didn't want to say that either the climate crisis or logging of fire-resistant old growth trees was contributing to the massive burns, even though they had put out loads of reports about it. Why not? They were scared they'd be accused of exploiting tragedies.

But for some reason, the right wing had no similar fears. They blamed the fires on environmentalists, saying that environmentalists had prevented thinning of low-diameter trees. The environmental community was so scared by that line of argument that the environmental messaging was, "Yes, we need tree thinning -- just not deep in the forest." Not surprisingly, few members of Congress and few members of the public remembered the distinction. The result: passage of Bush's Orwellian Healthy Forests Initiative, which actually subsidizes the logging of fire-resistant old growth trees.

Not for the first time, the opponents accuse us of "exploiting a tragedy" before we start discussing the issue. They will always capture the first sounds of "this might be due to global warming" and hammer them in full. Now they don't even need to wait for the first hints - they control the image of environmentalists fully.

To take some initiative in the debate, we need to be more creative, less reluctant and predictable, perhaps at slight expense of formal accuracy routines.

After all, the statement "The California fires were caused by global warming" is just as important as "The California fires were not caused by global warming". Can anyone prove that global warming could not be a factor in these massive fires? Would fires had a good chance to grow that size if not for dryer and longer summer? Which of the two statements seems to be closer to the truth?

by das monde on Thu Oct 25th, 2007 at 10:45:51 PM EST
Matt's piece is very good. (The Open Left.)

This is a lighter version, to help provide a narrative.  Matt / you / others here have provided some thoughts/words to strengthen the point.

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 06:55:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good diary a siegel. You could grab a screen shot of the US drought monitor map for California and put it right next to the satellite image of the California fires at the beginning of your diary. The fires are all distributed where the drought is either extreme or severe.

To counter the right wing spin on "not clearing fuel is the fault of enviros", it'd be worth mentionning that the fires are very intense precisely because the amount of fuel increases radically with global warming.

I feel comfortable saying the intensity and extent of the fires is probably due to global warming.

by Fete des fous on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 01:31:28 AM EST
You are right.  The drought map would (will) strengthen this argument.

Blogging regularly at Energy Smart.
by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Fri Oct 26th, 2007 at 06:52:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"The catastrophic fires that are sweeping Southern California are consistent with what climate change models have been predicting for years, experts say, and they may be just a prelude to many more such events in the future - as vegetation grows heavier than usual and then ignites during prolonged drought periods."
by Fete des fous on Sun Oct 28th, 2007 at 03:11:22 PM EST


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