European Tribune

An Inconvenient Truth

by Ted Welch
Wed Dec 5th, 2007 at 07:27:30 PM EST

inconvenient-truth-sWarning: Another long piece :-) - but the issue merits it - and, like Gore, I have adopted a "kaizen" approach (see below), and given the bits on design, I've tried to include lots of relevant images - so it's taken a long time. I hope you get to the end - and that, in the end, we all survive!

We went to see "An Inconvenient Truth" at the Mercury Cinema (echoes of Orson Welles?) in Nice, which was followed by a discussion organised by a Cafe Cine group.

In the title of my diary on Stone's film "Wall Street" I said that greed was glamourous and deadly. In this case we come to the truly deadly consequences of greed.

Diary rescue by Migeru

[editor's note, by Migeru] Picture resized and moved to the margin and fold inserted here for the front page.


Future generations?

The film was grim viewing and afterwards a couple of invited scientists argued that the situation was probably worse than Gore had said, and that he'd exaggerated the possibilities for counteracting the effects of climate change. One of the scientists, a Brit who looked a bit like a Father Christmas, passed on this news with many a jolly chuckle. I felt relieved that I have no children and sorry for those who do - and even more for the children themselves.

 Cf.:


When I said I was going to a press screening of "An Inconvenient Truth," a friend said, "Al Gore talking about the environment! Bor...ing!" This is not a boring film. The director, Davis Guggenheim, uses words, images and Gore's concise litany of facts to build a film that is fascinating and relentless. In 39 years, I have never written these words in a movie review, but here they are: You owe it to yourself to see this film. If you do not, and you have grandchildren, you should explain to them why you decided not to.

Roger Ebert

kid-environ

John Doerr (who works with Gore) said (in a TED talk): "I'm really scared. I don't think we're going to make it." After seeing the Gore film he had some friends round for dinner and they all agreed climate change was a real problem. Then it was his 15 year-old daughter's turn and she said: "I'm scared and I'm angry. Your generation created this problem, you'd better fix it." All eyes turned to him and he didn't know what to say.

However he goes on to describe what he and his colleagues at Kleiner are doing to use their entrepreneurial skills to tackle the problem and to encourage others to do so:

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/128

Hero's journey

I thought that "An Inconvenient Truth" combined the personal, the political, the moral and the scientific very well; they are, after all, aiming at the widest possible audience and people are interested in people.

After having written that, I viewed the film again on DVD with the director's commentary. He said that his father had made over a hundred documentaries and focused on how individuals and groups were affected by issues, because "people are interested in people." His son agreed, hence the focus on Gore and not just the argument about climate. Gore's biography has some dramatic episodes which explain his current dedication to this cause.

gore-screen


Guggenheim wisely structured the movie after the Joseph Campbell model, that is, it's a hero's journey. The director obviously grasped that in making An Inconvenient Truth, he was basically trying to capture a concert-type performance on film and says that the movies that influenced him most were Martin Scorsese's The Last Waltz (1978) and Jonathan Demme's Swimming to Cambodia (1987).

http://homevideo.about.com/od/dvdrevi3/fr/IncvntTruthDVDa_2.htm

CF.:


What elevates the book, and the movie, is the way that Gore's personal story and the story of climate change move in carefully orchestrated counterpoint to articulate a vision of hope and a challenge for the future. If Gore indulges in fear-mongering, it is not the cheap partisan tactic that promises a war that will not end against an enemy that cannot be defined. Gore defines the enemy--and it is us. He promises a war, but it is a war against the darker aspects of human nature, the selfish, shortsighted worldview that drives us to plunder now at the expense of our neighbors and our children.

Jacob Foster is a DPhil student in mathematical physics at Balliol College, Oxford, and a PhD student in complexity science at the University of Calgary. His current interests range from the mathematical properties of complex networks to the geometry of the Big Bang.

http://www.oxonianreview.org/issues/6-1/6-1foster.htm

Updated and improved

gore-book

The film was made very quickly - 6 months - whereas Guggenheim's previous documentary had taken two years. The speed was partly due to the fact that Gore had done so much of the research and thinking about presentation already, and was constantly updating and improving it. Cf.:


Churn, baby, churn

"One good piece of advice found in Guy Kawasaki's Rules for Revolutionaries is the idea of constantly striving for improvement, or churning. In Japanese we might refer to this idea as "kaizen" or an attitude of continually looking for ways to improve, even the smallest of details. It is interesting to see that Al Gore was constantly learning from each presentation and refining his message and his visuals along the way. This is a good lesson for all of us.

http://presentationzen.blogs.com/presentationzen/2006/06/duarte_design_h.html

factories-dvd

There's a very comprehensive piece about the design in the "slide-show" and in the film by another professional designer:


Good design is not about style

My favorite aspect of the movie's presentation is the timelessness of its visuals. Gore's slides use nothing but core graphic design fundamentals to do the job and become an important lesson on how the design aesthetic works.

There is a distinct lack of gradients, shading, fanciful fonts, cool transitions or any other spoils of modern presentation software. The motion graphics when used were judicious and focused. There was no specific template from one slide to the next. Thankfully, there was also a complete lack of bulleted lists.

The general design aesthetic clearly focused on the fundamentals.

http://www.designbyfire.com/?p=29

Freebies

In the DVD commentary Guggenheim makes it clear that he is very appreciative of Gore's work and extremely impressed by Gore's dedication and energy. I almost get the impression that he regrets the fact that he's made this film relatively early in his career; he says that he doubts if he'll ever make anything as important again. At the same time he's clearly very glad that he has made it and feels privileged to have done so. It's yet another heartening example that people want to devote themselves to things they can believe in and feel proud of - he also notes that many people and organizations gave them stuff - because they recognised it was an important project - ( cf Doerr of Kleiner above), e.g. this offer from a designer commenting on the film (and it also makes the point about people responding to people):


"Sure, they can sell the DVD of the movie and people can show that, but it's more effective if people can interact with a real person in a live presentation setting. Come on Al, unleash this presentation to the masses and let others get out there and make the presentation too. (Note: I have just heard that Gore may be training 1000 people to make similar presentations. True? I'd offer my services for free to help train a group of scientists to do something similar to what Al Gore, a lay person, has done.)"

Here the team at Duarte Design talk about working with him, and they too were impressed:

algoreted1


Q: What was the process like?

A: "We had been working closely with him on his presentation for a while before the concept of a movie was proposed. He would call us with ideas and take us in a direction. Once we'd identified stories or images and had them animated, he would come in for a review. He was brilliant, charming and affirming. Our Account Manager and Designers put their own sweat into the piece because he (and the cause) were very contagious. He would call their cell and say "I heard about these bees in South America, check it out for me" or "I came up with a way to make this section more powerful, why don't you think about this or that." He was refining the file each time he presented it and calling us with feedback and we'd go for another round. As we researched facts and resourced images, people were very helpful when we told them who wanted the images and what it was for."

http://presentationzen.blogs.com/presentationzen/2006/06/duarte_design_h.html

Guggenheim stresses that he wasn't an environmentalist before this film and had his doubts about making such a film - a guy talking about a lot of charts and graphs ? But when he went to see Gore and watched his presentation he was hooked within ten minutes.

gore-world-s

Cf.:

"Al Gore's presentation is so good, so compelling, that they made a movie about it. A movie that is essentially an Al Gore presentation with solid, simple use of multimedia. What a concept - who the heck thought that would be interesting? But it is.
`A movie about Al Gore giving a PowerPoint presentation [actually he uses Apple's Keynote] about global warming doesn't sound all that exciting, but if you liked "March of the Penguins," you'll love "An Inconvenient Truth."
                                         -- Eleanor Clift, Newsweek "

http://presentationzen.blogs.com/presentationzen/2006/05/al_gore_another.html

This is partly because Gore is a very good presenter and a number of people have remarked on how different he is from his "stiff" and "wooden" performance in the 2000 campaign. A very different Gore, relaxed, smart, funny, self-deprecating, emerges in a Spike Jonze documentary made during the campaign..- well worth viewing:

(NB  5 mins in, his dedication to conservation climate issue is clear. He explains through what they're doing - filming - the camera, he points out, is smaller, lighter and better than few years before - and he says we can do that with all technology - and make it less polluting)


"This is the man the media mocked as wooden and stiff? In part I and part II Gore addresses his reputation for being stiff on several occasions. The same guy we see hanging out with his family in this video is the same guy we see giving Keynote presentations about global warming to packed houses across the US. In both cases he seems different from the Al I saw on TV six years ago. Maybe he's just learned to take "the real Al" public. Maybe he's just learned to be himself in front of the public. Whatever the reasons for his transformation, he is today quite the speaker. And thanks to Duarte, Al Gore is a pretty savvy visual communicator as well."

http://presentationzen.blogs.com/presentationzen/2006/06/duarte_design_h.html

Audience of millions

While the director hadn't given the issues a lot of thought, he says in the DVD commentary that now he thinks about them daily. However he didn't think there would be much of an audience for the film - maybe some schools would use it. But the fact that by the time of recording the DVD, 2 million people had seen the film - "blows my mind." That number must have increased dramatically with the release of the DVD - in FNAC in Nice they had a lot of copies on the shelves. So Gore doesn't have to do it personally city by city - though he will go on doing that - but now millions more can see him present his powerful case - and, with the DVD, get an update with reports which have come out since the film was completed and which confirm the case it makes in a disturbing way (Guggenheim says that in making the film they were constantly updating - some images had been e-mailed by scientists). The result is a very popular documentary; at Rotten Tomatoes, which has collections of reviews of films, AIT gets a 93% approval rating! Its impact can be "stunning":

Cf.:

Before going to a multiplex theater to see An Inconvenient Truth (2006), I had not given much thought to global warming, and I certainly had no expectation that any politician could bring the topic alive for me. But I was stunned by Davis Guggenheim's film, a compelling version of Al Gore's presentation on the topic. The movie is intellectually and emotionally engaging, and it merits watching regardless of what you think about climate change or the former Vice President.

The DVD containing An Inconvenient Truth would be worth buying for the feature film alone, but it comes with bonus materials that enhanced my appreciation of the movie. The best of these is Gore's half-hour update on the information given in the film, and there's a good director's audio commentary as well.

http://homevideo.about.com/od/dvdrevi3/fr/IncvntTruthDVDa.htm

When "balance" lies

The case spelled out in the film and Gore's "slide show" is quite clear, massively supported by the scientists working in this general area (despite the attempts of the Right to spread doubt) and it's quite scandalous that the basic facts are still being questioned with the stupid collusion of the media.

ipcc-thermometer-fact-sheet-s

IPCC's 2nd Working Group Report Shows Temperature Increases and Corresponding Global Warming Impacts Updated April 17, 2007

The IPCC has released the summary and North America Chapter from its Working Group II report.

http://www.net.org/warming/ipcc_briefing2.vtml (National Environment Trust)

One of the most telling things in the film was when Gore said that a study had been done of peer-reviewed scientific papers on the climate, using a sample of about 10% - about 920 papers. They found ZERO papers which questioned the basic facts of climate change and our role in it. When they compared this with a similar sample of media reports, they found that over 50% included dissenting views ! This is disgraceful distortion, partly due to the media's corporate nature and connection with corporations involved with energy sources, but also, as Gore himself has complained, to do with the dogmatic adherence to the idea of "balance" - getting both sides of a story, even when the other side are flat-earthers.  Cf. Ebert again:

Am I acting as an advocate in this review? Yes, I am. I believe that to be "impartial" and "balanced" on global warming means one must take a position like Gore's. There is no other view that can be defended. Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, has said, "Global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." I hope he takes his job seriously enough to see this film. I think he has a responsibility to do that.

Ibid.

inconven-truth

Truth doesn't always lie somewhere in the middle of competing views; some people's views are warped by their vested interests, e.g. tobacco corporation executives - as the documentary record now shows. Included in the film was Upton Sinclair's "It's hard to get people to understand something when their salary depends on them not understanding it." Some energy corporations have tried to undermine the case for climate change by spreading doubt and funding dissenting views, just as the tobacco corporations had tried to undermine the case for the link between smoking and cancer.

tobacco-scientists


"Unfortunately both for Lorillard and their customers, the reality was a little different. The Micronite filters were 30% crocidolite, otherwise known as Brazilian blue asbestos, considered to be one of the most dangerous forms of asbestos. Implicated in both asbestosis and in mesothelioma, a particularly virulent form of lung cancer, asbestos is not exactly considered a health benefit for the lungs. Even worse, the filter made the cigarette hard to draw, resulting in the smoker using heavy suction, and drawing the smoke and filter particles deeply into the lungs."

http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=394


Cf.:

Gore says that although there is "100 percent agreement" among scientists, a database search of newspaper and magazine articles shows that 57 percent question the fact of global warming, while 43 percent support it. These figures are the result, he says, of a disinformation campaign started in the 1990s by the energy industries to "reposition global warming as a debate."

It is the same strategy used for years by the defenders of tobacco. My father was a Luckys smoker who died of lung cancer in 1960, and 20 years later it was still "debatable" that there was a link between smoking and lung cancer. Now we are talking about the death of the future, starting in the lives of those now living.

Roger Ebert

Real science

On the internet there are a lot of attacks on Gore and his film - fortunately there are also sites like www.realclimate.org:

realclimates

Real Climate's review of AIT:


... it is interspersed with personal reflections from Gore that add a very nice human element. Gore in the classroom in 1968, listening to the great geochemist Roger Revelle describe the first few years of data on carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere. Gore on the family farm, talking about his father's tobacco business, and how he shut it down when his daughter (Al Gore's sister) got lung cancer. Gore on the campaign trail, and his disappointment at the Supreme Court decision. This isn't the "wooden" Gore of the 2000 campgain; he is clearly in his element here, talking about something he has cared deeply about for over 30 years.

How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=299

After the review of "An Inconvenient Truth" there is a long set of responses - it's a course on climate change in itself! Some of them are very technical, but some are very illuminating, even for the lay-person. One, for example, is a rebuttal of some of the main sceptics' arguments and begins with a refutation of the claim that Gore has exaggerated the claims of his former professor, Roger Revelle:


Response 177 CM Says: 6 June 2006  

Robert Balling, the global warming skeptic, has recently published an article, "Inconvenient Truths Indeed," in which he outlines six scientific criticisms of Gore's movie.

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=052406F

This article has been trumpeted by lay pundits and certain segments of the political blogosphere as a "full debunk of the misleading scientific arguments." Below is my response to his points. Any additional comments, corrects, additions? Thanks -CM
...
 Climate research exploded as a field of science throughout the '90s, and an extensive amount of research has been done in the last 16 years. Revelle died in 1991 and therefore cannot comment on his statement in light of much more significant and conclusive data. Balling's first critique, a cherry-picked 16 year old quote, is not a substantive criticism of the current data presented by Gore in the movie. Many people would read this first criticism and discount the remaining article; however, because Balling's first point is incredibly inane does not a priori disqualify the remaining five. So let's continue.
...
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=299

dead-forest

There's a fuller refutation further on (response 222) from Justin Lancaster, a friend of Revelle.

Also contained in the responses is a link to a BBC Panorama programme which showed that the disinformation campaign about climate change starts at the top in the US :

A US government whistleblower tells Panorama how scientific reports about global warming have been systematically changed and suppressed.

Some of America's leading climate scientists claim to Panorama that they have been censored and gagged by the administration.

One of them believes the publication of his report, which catalogues the unprecedented rate of ice melt in the Arctic, was delayed as Americans prepared to vote in 2004.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/5005994.stm

Cf.  http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/17/60minutes/main1415985.shtml

But, thanks to Gore, many dedicated scientists and all those in the US who have got the climate change message and oppose central government's absurd and dangerous denial,   even Bush is having to admit the facts. Indeed - as one of the responses in realcimate.org also shows - even the Wall Street Journal is starting to admit this inconvenient truth:


Journalists are already beginning to grasp the difference. In today's Wall Street Journal, Sharon Begley writes "Scientists Explain How They Attribute Climate-Change Data" (May 12, 2006; Page A15). Begley explains how climate scientists attribute increasing global average temperatures to increasing levels of greenhouse gases, rather than natural variations in climate:


 ...Again, changes in the sun's output since 1861 are too small to have warmed the world enough to weaken the Walker circulation that much, the scientists calculate. Adds Dr. Vecchi, "We looked at 2,000 years of data and asked whether internal variability could produce the weakening. There is less than a 1% chance it did."

The debate over what has caused the increase in severe hurricanes centers on whether they're just something Earth kicks up from time to time or are the result of seas warmed by anthropogenic climate change. In a study presented at an American Meteorological Society conference, scientists noted warming in every ocean basin where hurricanes form. Natural variations tend to hit one basin at a time.

WSJ

What is to be done?

glacier

Even often jaded and sceptical film critics have been shaken by this film, and Ebert was moved to include in his review a list of what you can do to help :


An Inconvenient Truth is a deeply troubling and extremely well made film that makes a complicated subject accessible to everybody. (The use of a Futurama cartoon as a teaching tool is an especially nice touch.) Shaken as I was after the credits rolled, I was also able to be just a little bit proud of myself-at least I hadn't driven to the movies that day.

http://www.philadelphiaweekly.com/view.php?id=12305



What can we do? Switch to and encourage the development of alternative energy sources: Solar, wind, tidal, and, yes, nuclear. Move quickly toward hybrid and electric cars. Pour money into public transit, and subsidize the fares. Save energy in our houses. I did a funny thing when I came home after seeing "An Inconvenient Truth." I went around the house turning off the lights.

Ebert

The climate of opinion is changing, even in America (OK, belatedly and on a small scale):

stepitup2007


We asked the question: Who's a Leader? On November 3, we found out the answer: YOU ARE! You organized hundreds and hundreds of rallies in all 50 states and sent over 14,000 invitations to politicians to join you and offer their plan to stop global warming. And together, we united under 1Sky - the solutions that science and justice demand. We are the leaders we have been waiting for - and our movement has just begun.

http://stepitup2007.org/


From Austin, Texas and New Orleans:

stepitup4

This article is is my contribution to the cause. I also recommend that you buy the DVD - watch it with friends and give copies to others - an xmas present which can help save the planet.

The last word (I promise! :-) ) goes to youth:

One of the most hopeful signs is young activists, who are already making the breakthroughs necessary to build an expansive climate movement. The Campus Climate Challenge has rapidly grown to include over 500 colleges and achieved hundreds of innovative clean energy policies across the country. Power Shift 2007, the first-ever national youth summit on global warming, drew 6,000 students to Washington, D.C., last weekend and featured guests ranging from Nancy Pelosi to Van Jones. Indeed, the youth movement is quickly becoming the largest and most influential student movement in nearly a half century.

("I'm a sophomore at Johns Hopkins University studying international relations and economics. I serve as president of my class and in 2006 I founded the Hopkins Energy Action Team, a student initiative which recently won its campaign to achieve a university-wide climate policy. I've also worked for the Sierra Club and Environment California, where I was involved in advocacy for the California Global Warming Solutions Act. I'm now a Research Fellow at the Breakthrough Institute, where I recently co-authored "Fast, Clean, Cheap: Cutting Global Warming's Gordian Knot," a white paper on U.S. federal energy policy which will be published in January by the Harvard Law and Policy Review.")

http://itsgettinghotinhere.org


earthrise-s

The trailer:

 

The film's site: http://www.climatecrisis.net

See also:

http://www.realclimate.org

http://www.stopglobalwarming.org

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It's finished! :-) But the time spent is nothing compared with Al Gore's over 30 years involvement with the issue, the film crew's 6 months (one graph took hundreds of hours), and Duarte design's work for the "slide-show" (Gore's Keynote presentation). Generally this is preaching to the converted here - we'll see :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 06:20:28 AM EST
Thanks, Ted. A nice presentation.
Yes, I suspect it's preaching to the choir, but still needs doing.
Saw the film about 3 months ago in Paris. Not over a dozen people in the theater- UGC Danton at Bercy. My heart sank. But it was the middle of the day, and two weeks into the run. Then I read the reviews, and they were good. Several newspaper articles, some public discussion, but overall the effect seemed muted.
Gore's suggested actions are thin soup- a band-aid for a cut throat--true. His real approach is top-down, and probably needs to be, at least in part, but effective action will come if and when we attack the problem from both directions. How to motivate?
George Soros, whatever you might think of his business practices, is no fool. He sees the great American problem as what he calls a "feel good" society- things that don't feel good are simply deleted, and thus can't be dealt with.
I think that cast of mind- the sector who will see the film as another "entertainment" is a huge group, and the main problem.
The world as a theme park. You can leave, or turn it off.
I think it's a mental matrix of frames and filters that accentuate the consumer culture-- an offshoot of corporate think. We need somehow to get past the corporate theology of competition and self-interest, and realize that the movie is a love story-- a love story about loving Earth, and our children. It's about giving them a treasure beyond description- or a burnt and dying cinder. Or somewhere in between, depending on how much we care...

Thanks again.
   

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 07:59:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He [George Soros] sees the great American problem as what he calls a "feel good" society- things that don't feel good are simply deleted, and thus can't be dealt with.
I think that cast of mind- the sector who will see the film as another "entertainment" is a huge group, and the main problem.

I think he's right about the general point - but I don't agree with the second point. This isn't just my opinion, I included representative responses from film critics, who, as I said, can often be more jaded and cynical than the average viewer and they aren't generally militant environmentalists. Their reaction, as with many others, e.g. John Doeer, Guggenheim, the director, etc., was very strong. Ebert wrote a VERY supportive review, the DVD reviewer was very positive. Fear, as Bush and cronies know, is a great motivator - which is why I am against some of those who say Gore is too negative (while some here think he's not negative enough)- some are Americans, like the student quoted at the end, and want the kind of uplifting stuff Soros refers to.

People need a strong wake-up call, and some people, e.g. Doerr again, are doing a lot. On the other hand, if you depress them too much they will just go into denial, so you need to suggest something postive even individuals can do, as well as trying to press for more general change. I think Gore's experience of over a thousand presentations has probably given him a pretty good sense of how to balance these.


Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 03:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the recommendations folks - now how about a few comments ? :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 10:02:48 AM EST
Nobody's here today Ted. Aside from myself and estHer there's only been one photo posted on the photoblog all day and no recs. Maybe tonight.

I told Bush; don't play chess with the freakin' Russians.
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 10:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well some were here to recommend this - so I'm not complaining :-) Surprised about the photo blog - but I'm sure it will take off in the evening - some poor souls have to work :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 12:12:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I sat and read through, and it was one of those that just left me with th thoughts, what else is there to say? some diarys are just too complete.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 10:24:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't worry about the lack of comments - some things just take your breath away.  I have encountered very little skepticism about climate change in Ireland, and now with the Greens in Government, Government action is starting to follow.

The bigger issue is that there is an awful lot of tokenism associated with the debate - actions which won't really have all that much positive impact - and sometimes a negative impact - e.g. bio-fuels which divert land use from food production, and which can consume more energy in their production than they provide.

The big actions that are needed are Geopolitical - high taxes on all fossils fuels to force fuel economy, high public investment in more fuel efficient public transport, pressure on gig countries China, U.S. etc. to sign up to Kyoto etc.

We need Al Gore to tun for President again!

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 11:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"tun" - is that an Irish expression - running at 100 miles an hour ? :-)

See Geezer in Paris's response to this. I think Gore's suffered enough in that vicious swamp:-) - and seen how little even a president can do - e.g. Clinton having to drop Hillary's health plan.

Now, according to the director, he's greeted like a rock-star in some places, has got a Nobel prize and can go where he wants (travelling like anybody else - in the first Spike Jonze video he shows them the gas masks he and tipper had to take everywhere - with security guards) can talk to who he wants, etc. And he does have a lot of powerful connections and is having a big impact on lots of people, who spread the message and some get things done, e.g. John Doerr:

At the end of our first meeting one member, Bob Epstein, a Berkeley engineer who started the database company Sybase  (nyse: SY -  news  -  people ), said, "the single most important thing we must do is to encourage California policymakers to develop a market-based system of incentives and mandatory caps on greenhouse gases." So in August of last year eight GIN [Greentech Innovation Network] members went to Sacramento and lobbied eight undecided legislators to vote in favor of the Global Warming Solutions Act. Seven of these eight voted in favor. California thereby became the first state to mandate a 25% reduction of CO 2 by 2020.

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0507/082.html




Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Believe me, it's not complete - I just decided to stop :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 05:36:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Comment in progress.  

Unvirtual Reality is calling me home.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 01:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Comment in progress." Oh dear, that sounds ominous :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 05:37:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
very nice job, ted.

much appreciated...

we must do what we can.

Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 03:37:18 PM EST
Thanks very much - yes we must - or the kids will never forgive us :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 05:38:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent Diary, Ted.

So good, I don't have to see the film now....;-)

I really do not have much to say about Global Warming: except that it is an incontrovertible fact IMHO.

As for the causes, I think it is inconceivable that CO2 is not a factor: but I have no idea, not being a scientist, where CO2 stands in relation to other factors.

Where I am a deep cynic is in relation to the "solutions" - particularly carbon credits and emissions trading etc - being put forward, and the company Gore keeps. I believe - and I pretty much said so three years ago here re European emissions trading - that the whole thing is a scam of cosmic proportions.

Interestingly enough, I attended a conference in Newcastle yesterday held by an arm of the Energy Saving Trust where there was a valiant but disastrous attempt to enlist community support and input to develop individual carbon trading. I didn't find anyone who thought it workable, and these were the people actually out there "doing it" - the vanguard, if you will.

ie there is a great big black hole where UK policy ought to be.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 06:05:04 PM EST

Thanks Chris. Yes there are severe problems, but if more of us spent a fraction of the effort, imagination and dedication that Gore puts into it we'd have less problems.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:10:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook:
I really do not have much to say about Global Warming: except that it is an incontrovertible fact IMHO.

Unfortunately not. Or rather - it is in an objective sense, but there are still plenty of people who consider it a matter of faith not science, and believe it's a matter of opinion.

'Do you believe in climate change' is apparently seen as the left's equivalent of 'Do you believe in god?'

Unfortunately there's a huge pile of ideological baggage left over from the 60s, when it was only long-haired pot-smoking freaks who cared about the environment, and not the adult men in suits with serious expressions and impressively large holiday homes who make all the important decisions around here.

The framing has been hopeless, and to a large extent still is.

It's only now, after ten years of debate, that it's just starting to get through to the public that this is a real issue. Most people are still blind to the catastrophic potential, and there are still the crackpot ideologues at Cato repeating the same old frothing madness about how the economic costs and benefits make climate change irrelevant to the real economy.

AIT has gone some way to breaking through the denial, but we're still a couple of decades - and very possibly a couple of major physical disasters - away from collective acceptance of physical reality.

In terms of social engineering, progress won't be made until climate change becomes the only significant political issue.

In the same way that everything now is run through the frame of Wall St and City profits, real change won't start to happen until that frame is replaced with climate consequences.

AIT should be seen as an opener for the debate, and not a closer. And I'm now close to despising Gore for not pushing himself into a leadership position where he could have made that change in narrative a real possibility.

ChrisCook:

ie there is a great big black hole where UK policy ought to be.

That's because UK policy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the City, and particularly of oil, nuclear, construction, and defence, will only ever promote policy which benefits those sectors.

We could so easily have a green bonanza, but it would mean opening up markets to a diversity of smaller players, and the big squatting bullies have no interest in allowing that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 09:02:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

AIT should be seen as an opener for the debate, and not a closer. And I'm now close to despising Gore for not pushing himself into a leadership position where he could have made that change in narrative a real possibility.

Have you ever auditioned for the TV series "Grumpy old men"? :-) Or did I miss some positive comments about anything? Has anyone suggested that AIT should be a "closer" for debate?

As to you finding him "close to despicable" - I find that pretty despicable in itself. How much does someone have to do to escape your condemnation - he was Vice-president and made efforts to get the issue taken seriously, despite massive opposition at the time. He ran for President - won- yet was denied. AIT shows what an impact that had on him. But he picked himself up and refocused his considerable energy (he outlasted the younger film crew some days), his book is a best-seller, he won a Nobel prize, the film has been a big hit for a documentary, he meets with other presidents (e.g. Sarkozy), influential people like Doerr have been converted by him and are adding their influence and energy. I don't find that remotely "despicable". See also the comments below from Geezer in Paris, Migeru and the further quotation from Gore I added.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 09:47:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was frustrated by AIT because of the ineffectual feelgood "solutions" proposed at the end of the film:  nowhere does Gore tell the real inconvenient truths... that ubiquitous air travel will have to stop, that ubiquitous automobile use will have to stop, that longhaul trade will have to be substantially reduced, that the lifestyle of consumerist excess will have to stop, etc.  he leaves his (American) audience with the sense that all they have to do is buy some more Stuff -- be "green shoppers" -- and after they have bought CF light bulbs and a hybrid car, all will miraculously be well.

I understand the need to walk cautiously around the edges of spoilt-brat culture, but really, is it doing the public any favours to feed them soothing lies about maintaining the yankiindustrial way of life and a human-friendly biosphere and climate?  apart from that I was pleased with the film.

the depressing thing is that Gore's film is a baby step, and yet it is received as a big radical controversial document.

meanwhile, Filthy Lucre lets loose lawyers and money, if not (yet) guns, to force the citizens of Kansas to adopt coal plants whether they want 'em or not:

Six weeks ago Kansas Secretary of Health and Environment Rod Bremby made Kansas the first U.S. state to reject a coal-fired power plant solely because of health risks associated with carbon dioxide emissions. Since then, the state has become ground zero for a nationwide battle pitting environmental concerns against powerful economic and political interests.

Kansas is now facing lawsuits from Sunflower Electric Power Corp and industry groups while angry state lawmakers are determined to overturn the denial of the $3.6 billion power plant project, with some even threatening to dismantle the state department of health and environment.

The energy industry also is pouring money into the state to try to overturn the October 18 ruling, which killed Sunflower's plan to add two 700-megawatt units to its operations in western Kansas, a cash-strapped rural area.

"Everybody agrees that motherhood, apple pie and caring about the environment are fantastic," said Bob Kreutzer, head of the newly formed Kansans for Affordable Energy. "But we've got to make sure we always have electricity and that is why we need big power plants."

the stunning inanity of that last statement is enough to stop one's heart for a moment.  how we are going to "always" have electricity if we no longer have food or water -- or what kind of monster of selfishness one has to be to consider the two threats even remotely comparable -- is a question that doesn't seem to bother this paid mouthpiece.

[notice the clever relegation of environmental issues to "motherhood and apple pie" -- not only framing them with feminine/domestic (therefore trivial and unmanly) memes, but also -- via the stock trope -- with formulaic/rote rhetoric or window-dressing as opposed to sincere, practical or "real" concerns.  once again we see not-so-subtly gendered filth-industry meme warfare:  wussy politicians fuss and fret like a bunch of old women, all sentimental over The Environment, reciting a bunch of maudlin platitudes -- but Real Men roll up their sleeves, get real, and build coal plants.]

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 06:18:41 PM EST
I concur wholehear TED! ly with your analysis of the film, DeAnander.  The real crisis is severe, and demands severe solutions.

Regarding coal plants in Kansas, can one imagine how many jobs are created building and servicing the many thousands of megawatts of windpower available in Kansas?  The logic of that solution defies opposition.  Nearly all of western Kansas is class 3 - class 5 wind resource at 50m, meaning at modern hub height most of the western state  is 400 - 650 Wm2.

http://kec.kansas.gov/chart_book/WindEnergyMap.pdf

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 06:46:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the face of it, a town council lecturing the public about conservation because of the terrible plight of Planet Earth might think twice about putting on a month-long display of conspicuous energy consumption. After all, the dazzling Christmas lights are likely, while bringing seasonal cheer to shoppers, to be sending out a secondary message: conservation is important but so is having fun. Not everything needs to change. Life and business must go on.

Since this approach, a kind of fair-weather environmentalism, is a microcosm of the attitude of central government, it would be absurd to cast any blame on the council or the owners of those spectacularly illuminated houses. A Prime Minster who can boast that the UK is a world leader in combating climate change within a few days of announcing that an already vast international airport would be permitted to expand, enabling it to double its capacity in the next 25 years, has, to put it mildly, a selective view of the problem.

Politicians invariably use the threat of global warming in a way that is expedient to them. Solemn promises to put public money into renewable energy and to push hard to achieve EU targets make them look responsible and earn them votes. But when it comes to the truly difficult policy decisions - those which will anger the public and lose them popularity - they take the usual line, supporting big business and pushing for growth.

Those luckless people in different parts of the United Kingdom who have awoken to find, in order to save the world, that their little bit of landscape has been designated as a site for industrial wind turbines are regularly accused of self-interest when they protest - a particularly silly Labour MP dismissed them as "windbags" in the House of Commons this week - but in truth the selfishness is not there, but in the culture as a whole.

We talk about climate change, but buy bigger cars every year, produce throw-away technology, build larger airports. Industrialists piously urge the need for sacrifice on their customers, and then join the unseemly scramble to make money from the biggest gold-rush since the dot-com boom.

It is a human instinct, when in difficulty, to take a macho, pro-active approach - to build our way out of difficulty rather than live more moderately - and that reaction suits the politicians and the freshly green business leaders just fine. Open the financial pages these days and there will be stories about how green is the new gold and interviews with so-called eco-millionaires.

Care and conservation - the more radical versions of doing without Christmas lights - not only cost politicians votes but rarely make money for business. By contrast, business expansion with an attractive green hue, what Richard Branson calls "Gaia capitalism", is both profitable and a perfect, an easy way for a firm to market itself as being socially responsible and globally aware. In its turn, the government obediently plays its part - singled out for particular praise in Gordon Brown's recent speech were those great heroes of the environment, Tesco and Sky.

Last week it was reported that the head of one of the world's most famous oil dynasties, George Bush Snr, had erected a wind turbine over his ranch. Journalists, as usual, were suitably impressed. The convenient myth of the moment, that money-making and ecological responsibility can go hand in hand to lead us to a better, cooler world, without any of us changing the way we live, had found its perfect symbol.

It is a human instinct, when in difficulty, to take a macho, pro-active approach... again, a head-exploding moment of gendered rhetoric.  if it is "human instinct" to take a "macho" approach, then are we to accept the implication that women -- unless they are selfconsciously macho -- are not fully human?  or that being "pro-active" -- i.e. responding intelligently, strategically, and in advance to a developing situation -- is an exclusively masculine trait and can only be associated with bravado, expansionism, etc. (even if bravado and expansionism are the worst possible strategies, and patently, desperately, reactive rather than pro-active)?

the crisis of industrialism vs the biotic infrastructure seems to be throwing industrial techno-patriarchy into a full-blown gender-anxiety attack...  perhaps something analogous to the "modernity shock" and subsequent vicious misogynist backlashes that have been documented in antiquarian patriarchies suddenly confronted by industrial, colonial technoforce?  I mean, the Northwest Passage will finally yield to Man, what gratifying news (as Migeru sarcastically noted a few days ago) -- the cognitive dissonance is getting increasingly painful.

the callous, casual, even gleeful destructiveness and reckless bravado of industrial culture I would describe as more puerile than manly.  time to grow up, regardless of gender identity:  neither spoilt darling princesses nor arrogant devil-may-care princelings are going to come up with an optimal survivability path through our current resource crunch...

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 07:43:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DeAnander:
the callous, casual, even gleeful destructiveness and reckless bravado of industrial culture I would describe as more puerile than manly.

That's true enough, but the problem with a feminist analysis like this is it's obvious and easy, and is also very unlikely to lead to practical policy change.

If the Left parts company with reality it's most usually in the space between what people should do and what people are really likely to do. While we all know we 'should' cut emissions it's not going to happen without some very big changes to the political scene.

The changes will happen anyway, one way or another. The only question is whether the landing will be intelligently managed or catastrophic.

So it's possibly more practical to game out likely outcomes and see what can be done to influence them in a positive direction than to label the culprits naughty boys.

(And is it really only men who are the problem? Do women's lifestyle choices not contribute to CO2?)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 08:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's true enough, but the problem with a feminist analysis like this is it's obvious and easy, and is also very unlikely to lead to practical policy change.

All politics is about gender. Don't you know anything?

(And is it really only men who are the problem? Do women's lifestyle choices not contribute to CO2?)

Only when they've been corrupted by the industrial techno-patriarchy.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 10:58:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the depressing thing is that Gore's film is a baby step, and yet it is received as a big radical controversial document.

Well it IS radical to a lot of people - obviously not everybody is as aware of the problem as many people here - and it shocks them - without being so depressing that they try to dismiss it - see reply to Geezer in Paris above.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:07:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking of "feelgood 'solutions' at the end of the film", the problem isn't just the proposed actions, but the impression given of the effects. If memory serves, Gore showed plots like the IPCC scenarios on the left, representing CO2 emissions:

Free Image Hosting at allyoucanupload.com

With hard work, the curves go down. A difficult objective, but promising.

The corresponding problem-scenarios, however, look more like the ones on the right, showing CO2 concentrations: With hard work, the curves still rise. Not so promising.

Even the most optimistic scenario (green) represents a tripling of the anthropogenic contribution to CO2 concentration (the dotted line shows the pre-industrial level). That is to say, a problem that looks three times larger, in a favorable scenario, and omitting both cumulative effects, such as ongoing warming of the oceans, and positive feedback on greenhouse gas levels caused by thawing tundra, faster oxidation of soil organics, methane from tundra clathrates, and decreased oceanic photosynthesis, together with warming due to darkening at high latitudes caused by increased vegetation and shrinkage of Arctic sea ice.
------

My forecast is for a climate of opinion increasingly favorable to geoengineering. I regret that this is not yet a standard part of EuroTrib discussions of the politics of climate change, but then, human beings are notorious for paying too little attention to predictable developments.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 09:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Evidence of climate (of opinion) change:
9 November 2007
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS--Top climate scientists have cautiously endorsed the need to study schemes to reverse global warming that involve directly tinkering with Earth's climate....

The field of geoengineering has long been big on ideas but short on respect....Perhaps the best-known idea is to pump aerosols into the stratosphere to mimic the cooling effect of volcanoes. But there's been scant support from mainstream scientists, many of whom fear that even mentioning the g-word could derail discussion of carbon-emissions cuts. Others worry that technological tinkering might backfire. "I just accepted on faith as an environmental scientist that this had to be a bad idea," said Harvard's Scot Martin, who said he was reluctantly coming around....

Schrag also fears that when countries are faced with the prospect of even more drastic environmental change, they will turn to geoengineering regardless of whether the consequences are known. "We're going to be doing this if we're afraid of something really bad happening, like the Greenland ice sheet collapsing," he said.

Pierrehumbert urged scientists to study the problem as a supplement to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, although he called for a 10-year moratorium on any geoengineering. "To the extent I've changed my mind a little bit," Pierrehumbert explained to Science, the reason is the ease with which countries could embark on geoengineering.

Science

There are strong positive feedback loops in this sort of politics. When the political climate starts to tip, it will be difficult to argue against doing something effective without being labeled as pro-warming by the advocates of direct action to reduce global temperatures. Many of those advocates will be unprincipled opponents on a wide range of ideological issues, and many will not. It could get messy.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 09:22:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
sigh

It's been 30+ years since the advent of Chaos Mathematics as applied to Complex systems and people still don't get it.

Mucking around doing "geoengineering" is as likely to cause a detrimental as beneficial outcome.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 5th, 2007 at 08:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does this view differ from a denialist position that says computational models are useless, so global warming is unpredictable, and is as likely to cause a beneficial as detrimental outcome?

Note that the sulfur dioxide proposal can reference natural experiments, in the form of several volcanic explosions and their effects on atmosphere and temperature. One can pretend that the consequences are already known, and there is more than a shred of truth to this.

And beware the argument: "Pinatubo was OK, and if they say that sort of thing is worse than global warming, then warming shouldn't be a problem." Now wrap this in hostile rhetoric, marketista ideology, etc., and repeat 10,000 times on Fox.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 06:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because it's me that's saying it.  8-þ

People ... realized thousands of years ago that small causes can have large effects and the future is hard to predict.  What is relatively new is the demonstration that for some systems, small changes of initial condition usually lead to predictions so different, after a while, that prediction becomes in effect useless.

David Ruelle - Chance and Chaos

We know weather contains such systems from the Lorenz Butterfly.

Further, a change in weather patterns happens on a geologic time scale.  We are now, it has been claimed, seeing the affects of CO2 put into the atmosphere in the 1970s.  

Geoengineering is an attempt to change the initial conditions of a Chaotic system where the results of that change may not be observable for decades.

This does not make sense.

We know what to do about Global Warming, remove the cause of the problems by:

(1) stop pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
(2) initiate a global program to remove greenhouse gases (primarily CO2, currently) from the atmosphere to return them to Pre-GW levels

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 09:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With delayed feedback corrective action is as likely to be stabilizing as destabilizing.

My first encounter with this was in a nice little book called Response and Stability by A. B. Pippard.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 12th, 2007 at 06:01:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(Try #8 -- The Gore-Centric Approach)

What AIT does is allow people to make a choice:

  1.  Sit on your butt and wait for someone (and she'd Better Get Busy, damnitall) to save it.

  2.  Get in gear and save your own behind.

Gore, IIRC, focuses on the Top/Down political and institutional approach.  Far enough.  He's been hooked with that crew all his life and expecting him to veer from his chosen path isn't rational.

Personally, I don't see the institutional support for the measures required trumping the institutional support for Business-as-Usual.  

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 07:00:21 PM EST

What AIT does is allow people to make a choice:

   1.  Sit on your butt and wait for someone (and she'd Better Get Busy, damnitall) to save it.

   2.  Get in gear and save your own behind.

Yes, exactly.

Personally, I don't see the institutional support for the measures required trumping the institutional support for Business-as-Usual.  

Well, things only change if people try to change institutions' policies:

Doerr also answered a question about how much time he spends on green stuff: About half.

Sure, this is all in Kleiner's interests. Doerr's sermons will rally entrepreneurs into Kleiner's offices, and perhaps help maximize the firm's profits. But that's partly Doerr's point. All the interests are aligned. Everyone wins by pushing green tech. Consumers, agriculturalists, politicians, technologists, environmentalists. To his credit, Doerr is pushing policy change too, and his marketeering prowess can only help. He and about eight other partners (of about 19 partners at Kleiner) are active on a press to push legislation (oil tax, subsidies for alternative energies) on both the state and federal levels, he said. They're working with the Environmental Defense Fund, trying to push forward a carbon emissions-trading scheme, and visiting the offices of numerous U.S. Senators and Reps. Kleiner partner Floyd Kvamme is their agent in D.C.; he sits on the President's tech committee, and was apparently the guy who helped get the green-tech message to Bush. The firm is working with Schwarzenegger, as well as Westly and Angelides, Doerr said.


http://www.siliconbeat.com



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:23:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One wishes that there was a place to read about a proposal for answering the question of "what do we do now?" Unfortunately, mankind did not take the opportunity during the 20th century to work towards some sort of global economic equity and cooperative approach to energy production, so we now have the equity problem AND the climate problem AND and energy problem to solve at the same time.

My guess is that the countries with coal, including obviously the U.S. and China, and also Germany, will use it. And the countries with oil will continue to sell it. But at the same time, the third world will continue to get worse...  :-(

by asdf on Fri Nov 30th, 2007 at 11:51:24 PM EST

My guess is that the countries with coal, including obviously the U.S. and China, and also Germany, will use it. And the countries with oil will continue to sell it. But at the same time, the third world will continue to get worse...  :-(

So we just give up ?

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"So we just give up?" - Ted Welch

Well, I don't really know. If you go by what the IPCC says, based on their consensus view (that is, ignoring the many observations--roughly half--that say things are WORSE than the consensus, and ignoring the new data that is worse than what they used to agree upon the consensus position), then we need to stop CO2 emissions growth in seven years. But just this past week the U.S. Senate and Congress has agreed, with much backslapping and joy amongst the Democratic leadership, upon a new fuel economy bill:

Under the deal, new passenger cars and trucks would need to reach a fleetwide average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020, or a 40 percent increase over current standards.
_

"After weeks of productive discussion and negotiation, we have achieved consensus on several provisions that provide critical environmental safeguards without jeopardizing American jobs." -- Rep. John Dingell, D-Dearborn, Mich.

But what's needed is quite a bit more aggressive than this. For example, a 45% tightening in the CAFE standards, if put into effect by 2013, would STILL cause an increase in CO2 emissions. For example, according to this 2002 calculation, "[In this model,] growth in greenhouse gas emissions still occurs through 2030, but the growth is slower than it would have been without improved fuel economy."
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10172&page=64

That is, the Congress has agreed to do something (something that will probably not get Bush's approval!) that is far less than what is needed, even though there is already obvious proof that the fleet average could be 50 MPG in two years, if Detroit automakers wanted to make it so.

What the bill really does is (1.) provide a big pile of subsidies to the bio-fuel industry, and (2.) ignore the point that the requirement is for western nations to do MORE than an even share of the reductions.

The scale of the problem has simply not dawned on politicians yet. Not a single one of them is willing to say what needs to be said: There are too many people on the Earth, and we use too many resources. Somebody needs to propose a non-catastrophic method for getting the global population down to, say, 500 million people in just a couple of decades. It ain't going to be pretty.

by asdf on Sun Dec 2nd, 2007 at 02:58:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've seen Al Gore's presentation twice - once in person a few years back - 2003 or so - and again in the film.  It's very powerful.  Gore himself is a lovely man - self-deprecating, witty and very human.  I wish he had not been so constrained in 2000.  If the person hd been allowed to shine through, he could have won despite the Court.  Re-elect Gore in 2008!
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 07:34:34 AM EST
He IS a lovely man. So give him a break. DON'T re-elect him --ever. He's too good a man to be saddled with the giant public trainwreck that the next ruler will inherit.
I think he's grown beyond the office.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 08:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, it was a tragedy for him and the US - that he wasn't able to benefit from his win in 2000. Again I recommend the videos by Spike Jonze.


Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:27:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cf.:

Gore kept returning to this theme during our conversation: that it's not enough to just throw George Bush and the Republicans out, we need to address the root causes of the rot afflicting our politics. He highlighted some of the elements of the rot, particularly what has happened to our media culture, and the dominant influence of money:

"Money has replaced reason as the wellspring of power and influence in the American political system," Gore told me. "What was revolutionary about the United States of America was that individuals could use knowledge as the source of influence and power on a sustained basis for the first time since the agora [the center of Athenian democracy]... Now that money buys 30-second TV ads, lobbyists, computer banks, and Machiavellian political consultants, the wielding of power depends so much on money and so little on ideas that all of the organizations that Americans have formed to pursue progressive ideas to promote the public interest have been badly weakened."

That's why the Internet is so important to Gore. He sees it as a powerful countervailing force to these poisonous influences. "We need to reengage the America people in the process of democracy," he told me. "We have to convince them that their opinions do matter, that their wisdom is relevant, and that their political power can be used effectively. And the Internet is beginning to bring about some very positive changes in this area -- it's why it is so important that bloggers are now able to hold newspapers and politicians accountable in ways they couldn't even just a few years ago. The E=MC2 of American democracy is John Locke's formulation that all just power derives from the consent of the governed -- and that consent assumes an environment where there can be an open and accessible exchange of ideas."

Huffington post

Which is encouraging for us in this internet forum.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:55:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Something happened to Gore in about 2002 - he took about 2 years to digest the theft of the Presidency. He's much more useful as Citizen Gore than he would have been as President Gore, especially is appointed in 2000.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 5th, 2007 at 07:08:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I like Gore much better now than I did in 2000 as well and I'm very happy he's not running for President again.

But this sort of leaves out the George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld part. A world in which Gore became president in 2000 would have been a vast improvement over the current one.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Dec 7th, 2007 at 07:10:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune: An Inconvenient Truth (by Ted Welch on 30 November 2007)
I felt relieved that I have no children and sorry for those who do - and even more for the children themselves.

...

You owe it to yourself to see this film. If you do not, and you have grandchildren, you should explain to them why you decided not to.

...

Then it was his 15 year-old daughter's turn and she said: "I'm scared and I'm angry. Your generation created this problem, you'd better fix it." All eyes turned to him and he didn't know what to say.

I was born after the 1970's oil shocks. In a way that absolves me of responsibility for getting us to this juncture but definitely not for what is done in the next 30 years. When I was in my teens I read "Beyond the Limits to Growth", a 20-year reappraisal of the work that told the world what the problem was from the perspective of systems thinking and was derided by economists and policy makers. At about that time I was already confronting my parents on the fact that I couldn't see the basic middle-class assumptions of my cultural matrix applying to my adult life. I had been sold the Brooklyn Bridge, so to speak. My mother seems to be thankful that she probably won't live to see the end of the world as she knew it. I think many people born in the 1940's may be in the same situation.

But now I am in my early 30's and I'm (adoptive) father to a 5-year old an I have no clue what is going to happen, what is the least undesirable outcome that is likely and what are the key pressure points. I feel stuck in the hamster wheel (well, I have been ejected from the hamster wheel three months ago and trying to get back on it because I can't see anything else to run on).

Five years ago I thought the coming cusp was mostly geopolitical, a sort of rerun of the tragedy of the 1930's, this time as farce. I think it's going to be rather different.

This fucking sucks, to put it mildly, but it's the historical period I've been dealt.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 5th, 2007 at 07:20:43 PM EST

Usual process of maturation then - at first you are sure you know everything - then you feel that you know nothing :-)

The period we have could be worse - in some alternative universe Mutually Assured Destruction  might have been put to the test (Cuban missile crisis came very close) - and only some cockroaches would be left scuttling around.

I'm glad I wasn't born one generation earlier and sent to land on a Normandy beach, or a generation before that, to spend four years in Flanders' muddy fields among the shrieking shells.

But looks like it will be tough on the next generations, unless the politicians now really wake up - so all we can try to do is poke them - which is what Eurotrib is about - see you in Brussels :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 05:06:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh and thanks for the front page "rescue" - fame at last ! :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 05:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You convinced me to actually see AIT. I might ask Santa for the DVD.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 05:12:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Five years ago I thought the coming cusp was mostly geopolitical, a sort of rerun of the tragedy of the 1930's, this time as farce. I think it's going to be rather different.

There is an upside, which is that it will be a chance to clear out the stables. It's not a guarantee of being able to clean out the stables - the crap could easily end running things instead of being flushed away - but there will, at some point, be a window of opportunity within which positive change will be possible.

Rather than widdling around with low-energy lighbulbs and carrier bag recycling, possibly the most useful thing that can happen is for progressives to get a good narrative in place ahead of time, and work on finding ways to deliver it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 6th, 2007 at 09:17:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This fucking sucks, to put it mildly, but it's the historical period I've been dealt.

Look at it from the bright side: We get the chance to save the world.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Dec 7th, 2007 at 07:13:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is a good example of what comes next on the climate change debate: China says it's all the West's fault, particularly the U.S., and that they shouldn't have to worry about it. This argument has some validity, but who thinks that the U.S. and Europe are going to reduce their emissions enough to balance China's increases?

BALI, Indonesia (AP) - China insisted Friday the U.S. and other wealthy nations should bear the burden of curbing global warming, saying the problem was created by their lavish way of life. It rejected mandatory emission cuts for its own developing industries...

Su Wei, a top climate expert for China's government attending the U.N. Climate Change Conference, said the job belongs to the wealthy. He said it was unfair to ask developing nations to accept binding emissions cuts and other restrictions being pushed for already industrialized states.

He said the United States and its fellow industrial nations have long spewed greenhouse gases into the atmosphere while newly emerging economies have done so for only a few decades.

"China is in the process of industrialization and there is a need for economic growth to meet the basic needs of the people and fight against poverty," Su said.


http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8TCPUE80&show_article=1
by asdf on Fri Dec 7th, 2007 at 06:09:20 PM EST
This morning the nice people from amazon and the post office between them managed to deliver my copy. By sheer coincidence, as I opened the envelope, the TV news cut live to Gore and the IPCC bod receiving their awards.

This report from your universal synchronicity service in action.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 03:08:54 PM EST


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