European Tribune - Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st century ?

Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st century ?

by Helen
Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 06:32:14 AM EST

As mentioned here a fortnight ago Romania has 750,000 horse carts officially registered. I'm told that Bulgaria has a few hundred thousand as well. And it's hard not to notice them, especially in Romania, where the horse (or donkey) cart seems to be the principal vehicle for local transport.

Diary rescue by Migeru

And when I was driving through, I realised that, as far as economic activity will develop in the 21st century, they are already at the appropriate state. Within the EC, it will not be these supposedly "backward" agrarian economies that will suffer genuine hardship and collapse; it is petrol dependent "modern" western europe that will suffer as liquid fuel prices force radical changes on the patterns of transport : Changes that our political classes still refuse to countenance.

Which makes a wider point. When we talk about the problems that Peak oil may bring, we tend to think that somehow we'll be alright as soon as our political lords and masters get their skates on and do something more than talk about it. We seem to imagine it'll be some other poor sod in the third world who'll take the hit. But it won't be. Across vast swathes of the world, the loss of petrol will be nothing more than a cause for shrugging of shoulders and a little schaudenfreude as they hear of the difficulties we're having. But they'll saddle up the horse, tie a donkey to a cart and attach a plough to an ox; just like they always have and carry on regardless.

. Home
. About
. Contact
. New User Guide
. FAQ
. Search
. Search (Google)
. Archives (Wiki)
Art, Economics, Energy, Environment, EU Politics, Mech & Tech, By Country

Username:
Password:

. Make a new account
. Reset password

Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st century ? | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

right-sized for the 21st cent (none / 1)

Helen is the European Tribune's roving correspondent.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 02:17:06 PM EST

Re: right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 2)

Her byline is 'insight fom the back of beyond'

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 02:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 2)

Sometimes it feels more like from out of my backside

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 02:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: right-sized for the 21st cent (none / 0)

I was wondering about the deeper import of Sven's comment too...

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 03:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 2)

I just liked the phrase ' the back of beyond'. WYSIWYG

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 03:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: right-sized for the 21st cent (none / 1)

I loudly disagree.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Dec 2nd, 2007 at 03:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Eastern Europe (4.00 / 2)

I dunno. Happiness is not "I'm fine with a decent horse and cart", it's "I want a car like all the others, then I'll stop looking like a poor sod."

Bulgarians' hope for the future is probably, for the majority, economic growth so they can start living like the rest of us. They may be forced to go without it, but will they shrug their shoulders and go on living in the old way with good grace?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 03:03:50 PM EST

Re: Eastern Europe (4.00 / 3)

It is a matter of timing. If they get the cars before the collapse, the old pre-combustion engine infrastructure will be easily revived because the folk skill memory will still be there. Just as in Finland there is a folk skill memory only 3 generations old - and every Finn pines for the simple life, experiencing it only for 4 weeks in the summer.

I even met someone (now dead) who built a wood-fired engine for a truck during the Continuation War.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 03:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Eastern Europe (4.00 / 4)

Yes, that was a point I intended to make. that the skills will still be there because the generations now coming into adulthood are schooled in the ways the world will need soon.

This is not true of the "West". Our patterns of pre-industrial low energy use are mostly obliterated and inoperable. Bulgaria and romania may want their cars, but they can operate without oil, the west can't.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 03:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 4)

I'm not sure about this. Most of the third world is rapidly becoming more oil dependent. The EU/US will be able to afford the increased fuel prices and carry on (almost) regardless for quite a while. It is the poorer countries which will be priced out of the market and forced back to pre-industrial methods sooner rather than later - exacerbating the inequality they already experience.

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:24:34 PM EST

I'm not so sure about this ... (4.00 / 3)

... much of the third world that is rapidly becoming more oil dependent is pursuing neo-mercantalist exchange rate policies, which gives them substantial leeway to allow their exchange rate to rise against the US$ and € in the competition for oil.

And per capita, the oil dependency is still a lot less ... China, for example, can make a lot of headway in moderating the current increase in demand for gasoline for cars with an elaboration of the trend, already in progress, toward electric bikes, if the price of oil rises faster than fuel efficiency over the next couple of decades.

Utsukushikereba sore de ii

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Dec 2nd, 2007 at 08:37:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 3)

Surely they are just as reliant on fertilizer as anyone, which will increase in price and scarcity right along with oil?

I also disagree with who will suffer first. The developing and third world are more reliant on oil than you might think, and the first world has larger guns, which, for example, is much of the reason why people in the Congo dig for tantalum with their bare hands in mines for a living.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sun Dec 2nd, 2007 at 12:47:17 AM EST

Re: Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 3)

Lessenow. Horse cart transport usually implies more horses than carts, by some multiple, perhaps 1.5 to 1.
1,250,000 horses is a lot of fertilizer. Add in the night soil, competent crop rotation and your need for Commercial fert might just be pretty small to none.

People in the Congo dig for tantalum by hand because the multinational that is sucking their resources like a vacuum cleaner can get them cheap, and knows it. Cheaper than machinery.

Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Dec 2nd, 2007 at 01:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Eastern Europe - right-sized ? (4.00 / 2)

I wouldn't want to be the one to tell the peoples that they should skip the car madness altogether, after we have enjoyed it to the limit, because 'it's good for all us'. A politician that dares will have my support and admiration.

Giving a hard-working Chinese immigrant a hundred reasons to not buy a car, in car-or-bust Spain, is a hilarious experience, when not hypocritical. Westerners are all over those countries with their machines and media and now it may take some generations for them to choose against it.

I guess I need to be a role model in recovery... (;

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 09:16:33 AM EST

Re: Eastern Europe - right-sized ? (4.00 / 3)

Telling them now that they can't have a car would be an exercise in futility; agreed. But no politician will tell them, at some point in the next 10 -20 years their own pocket will.

When oil is trading somewhere north of (inflation adjusted) $300/bl and price at the pump is unaffordable for most ? why have a car ? But horses and donkeys will still be here.

That is my point. Western europe and North america cannot easily survive the massive disruption to patterns of trade and food distribution in the wake of the loss of cheap transportation. But eastern europe and much of the third world haven't yet so broken the links to a less energy intense economy that they cannot revert to it at need.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 09:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Sicilian donkey power (4.00 / 4)

Donkey power is a hell of a lot cheaper than deisel and mantenance.

I don't have access to my database right now but I'll make a go at it. It'll make stormy present and our energy-minded crowd proud. In a Sicilian town the city council decided to use donkeys to collect garbage rather than vehicles. The best Sicilian race costs about € 1400 each and costs about € 800 per year in food, lodging and health care. Donkeys can go up streets no vehicle can. They do not produce smog. The amount of methane they produce is negligable and their manure can be recycled.

Of the six eco-collecting donkeys a couple died- or were killed. They were immediately replaced by donators from other Sicilian communities. The experience has been so successful that other small towns in Italy intend to employ donkeys to gather trash. It appears Pisa may follow suit soon.

So yes, Romania is not that backwards. It may be the future as we return to more efficient and cleaner ways of production.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 09:39:48 AM EST

Re: Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st cent (4.00 / 2)

I'm glad to see that you are starting your reporting from Eastern Europe. I hope you will keep it up. Simple things like what the street life is like, what people do for recreation, etc. will be interesting.

I've claimed for some time that life in such countries could be what the larger economies will have to adopt as resources become scarce and it will be useful to know what sorts of deprivations people suffer in these places.

You don't have to try to draw any conclusions each time, if you feel this is too burdensome, straight reporting will be valuable enough.

I wonder how much the compact nature of these countries factors into things like transport. In the US the distances are so large than transport costs are a large part of energy equation. Even as more and more people move to urban centers, the issue remains - California oranges don't get any closer to New York, regardless of how much the middle of the country depopulates.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 11:44:34 AM EST

Eastern Europe - right-sized for the 21st century ? | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]