How Serbia spoilt best laid plans.

by Helen
Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 12:43:05 PM EST

Look at a road map of Central and Eastern Europe. The profusion of motorways seen to the west begin to peter out as we enter the new accession states. Yet, they are still there, Czech republic has a couple of good international highways, so does Hungary. And, despite the civil wars, the various countries that comprised that old Yugoslavia have several good roads : They was, after all, parts of the "sensible" capitalism-minded communist country and trade with and through Yugoslavia was quick and efficient.

So trade-wise Greece never had any problems with being a part of the EU, aside from needing to catch a ferry to get to Southern Italy, the rest of europe was a couple of days motorway cruising away. Bulgaria orientated all of its transport into Serbia to take advantage of these roads, including the main lik with Istanbul.

Diary rescue by Migeru


And then Serbia went mad. In the aftermath of the civil war, relationships between Europe and Serbia aren't as warm as they might be. So, in retaliation, they have imposed considerable restrictions on the border, it takes a long time to cross, the queues are long and slow moving. It's expensive in cash (80 euros) as well as in time, and that's before you pay the roads tolls. I met somebody who drove down through Serbia who told me that taking a car down the length of Serbia costs over 350 euros. And there's also the genuine threat of real banditry. So now Greece is reduced to catching the ferry across the Adriatic in order to access Europe, a considerable additional financial burden in both time and money on the cost of trade.

Of course, there is an alternative route from Greece to Hungary, through Romania and Bulgaria who are now fully paid up members of the EU and due to join Schengen before the end of the year. But, despite the map, personal experience tells me that this isn't really feasible. Following considerable investment, the road from the Greek border to Ruse (main crossing into Romania - the ONLY bridge across the Danube between the two countries) is halfway reasonable from what I've seen, although much of it is only single carriageway.

And then there's Romania. Romanian roads are a disaster. Due to the amount of traffic they are deteriorating faster than they can be repaired. Bypasses for towns don't exist and the roads in towns are often cobbled, rutted or even unpaved. Also signage is....well it could be improved. And it's hard not to see that going via Ruze and Bucharest is far from the most direct route to Central European markets from Athens and is really best suited for traffic to Turkey.

A new motorway urgently needs to be built from the E75 turnoff for Szeged in Hungary through to the E90 in Thessaloniki in Greece, preferably crossing the Danube in Western Bulgaria. But although everybody says it will happen, I have seen no sign of a new major road being marked out. This must mean that, even if the route is agreed, work cannot start till next year at the earliest and consequent completion dates must be set for 2012/2013 at the very best. Although realism suggests closer to 2020.

And that's too late. Whatever happens with the politics of the Middle East, oil supplies will have begun to noticeably diminish  with consequent ramping up of the price of fuel: Including diesel. Quite simply, by the time the motorway could possibly be finished price will be forcing changes in economic patterns of business resulting in trans-continental road transport becoming less of a factor in european affairs during the next decade. This applies to Eastern Europe with its awful roads just as much as to the West.

Which suggests that, rather than build a white elephant motorway that cannot be completed in time to have a useful life, for longer term economic development maybe Europe should concentrate on building a decent railway network (even more urgently needed) in Bulgaria and Romania with probably a high speed link linking both Istanbul and Athens to Vienna  and the rest of the european hi-speed network. It will be considerably more expensive, but they'll probably get some long term use from it

Course we could just repair relations with Serbia, which would solve everybody's problems. The Bulgarian section of the road from Belgrade to Istanbul is easily the best road in the country. It was Bulgaria's (and Turkey's) route to properity. After all, sending everything through the E75 in Serbia was the original best laid plan, but its kinda gang aglay.

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Isn't this what EU Structural funds were supposed to be for - to alleviate the disadvantages of Peripheral regions?  The question of road versus rail is also relevant, although I would be interested in seeing what the relative economics of construction costs and capacities would be.

Making up with Serbia doesn't seem a likely immediate solution either, at least until the Kosovo and Montenengro situations are stabilised.  But it really is in Serbia's interest to make up with the EU ASAP.  Otherwise it will be bypassed by history as well as by the EU transportation network.

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat Dec 1st, 2007 at 04:19:06 PM EST
The potential of more independence movements in Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia might upset this reconciliation even more than it is now.

And really, when it comes to land, I don't think that even joining the EU will mean more to people.

by Upstate NY on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 02:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea, something like this is exactly what EU structural funds are for. However, because Bulgaria and Romania only joined the EU recently, there hasn't been a chance for this to kick in to great effect.

But from the point of view of Greece I think they would have preferred that the EU had made a special concession much earlier to build a road through them once it was realised that Serbian isolationism effectively crippled Greece's ability to trade with the rest of the EU.

I wonder if Greece's turnaround on Turkey is to put pressure on the eU to get the eastern europe routes through R & B sorted out quickly.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 03:16:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A new motorway urgently needs to be built from the E75 turnoff for Szeged in Hungary through to the E90 in Thessaloniki in Greece, preferably crossing the Danube in Western Bulgaria.

Before Eastern Europe repeats the Britisah etc. experience and that in Peak Oil and global warming times, I'd rather have a railway instead...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 05:13:44 PM EST
BTW, the Vidin-Calafat Bridge, the second crossing of the Danube, a road-rail one, is in construction since spring this year, the contract for (directly) adjoining roads was signed in October. But if the hundreds of kilometres of highways down to the Greek border resp. up to the Hungarian border won't be ready by 2020, I wouldn't be surprised.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 05:36:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it is in construction I saw no signs of it, and I had plenty of opportunity.

It could be well out of town but I saw little sign of riverside activity.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 06:42:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the little I could find in lsnguages I understand, what definitely started was work site construction. That could be a concrete manufacturing site.

Where have you been near it? In Vidin, or Calafat, or both and you took the ferry?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 02:15:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, the construction company is Spanish giant FCC.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 02:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
formerly called 'Con y Con', controlled by billionairess

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esther_Koplowitz

Now I must go inspect their foundation business...<harrumph!>

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 03:59:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I crossed the Danube on the Vidin-Calafat ferry. The google map shows that I should have seen the works , especially whilst I was waiting in Calafat.

I never saw anything.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 07:26:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, in retaliation, they have imposed considerable restrictions on the border, it takes a long time to cross, the queues are long and slow moving.

Are you sure these restrictions aren't our, Schengen border guards?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 05:15:59 PM EST
Not according to a few people I've met who've done the Serbia route. I don't know if it is central policy directed from Belgrade or if it is just local security milking the situation for their own benefit or a combination, but the collective view I've heard can be summarised as "ripping everybody off".

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 8th, 2007 at 06:40:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen, what makes you think tha the Serbs or their government want to join the EU - run by the UK, FR, GER - all three of which happily bombed the Serbian civilian infrastructure for 90 consecutive days, causing Eur 50 billion of damage in the process?
As a matter of fact the majority DO NOT WANT to be part of the EU and I can understand them.
by vladimir on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 05:14:44 AM EST
Yeah...you well may be right on this one.
As far as I know most of the Serbs wanted to join EU even after bombardment ( they hold Americans responsible for it mostly).But NOW after they are asked to happily give up on Kosovo (to start with) because for God sake "Albanians do not want to live in Serbia" (like this was ever important who wants to live where in political games )after Serbs in Bosnia (that does not want to live in Bosnia for that matter)  were forced to be a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina , well it may be very well true that most of Serbs do not want to join EU on these conditions.
On the other hand not being a part of the "family" why would they care for your expenses guys. Take it or leave it and make your own roads that will simply never be better because they are not shorter...simple as that.
As far as time consuming border control it was always there and it has to change. With new technology it may very well happen in some time.
by vbo on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 08:45:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As a matter of fact the majority DO NOT WANT to be part of the EU

Matter of fact? Evidence?

Evidence to the contrary: Most Serbians Want to Join European Union: Angus Reid Global Monitor

A large portion of the Serbian population is in favour of their country becoming a member of the European Union (EU), according to a poll by the Strategic Marketing & Media Research Institute [a Serbian polling firm -DoDo]. 69.3 per cent of respondents support the EU accession, while 30.7 per cent oppose it.

...On Jul. 31, Tanja Miscevic, Serbian director of the EU Integration Office, commented on the results of this particular poll, saying, "Most people associate EU membership with better living standards, prosperity, and freedom of movement, (but) are insufficiently informed about the accession process and conditions for EU membership."



*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 02:30:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...or a similar result from May this year:

Despite Kosovo Intervention, Serbians Favor EU Membership

What does the Serbian public think about the EU? Despite that the EU has brokered the Ahtisaari Plan that would grant Kosovo a form of "supervised independence," 63% of Serbians living in Serbia say they have a "very positive" (24%) or "somewhat positive" (39%) opinion of the role the EU is playing in the Balkan region. A similar number, 62%, say they think Serbian membership in the EU would be a good thing. Just 9% feel it would be a bad thing.



*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 02:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two factors explain the difference in our data: 1) the sources and 2) the date of the survey.
On B92, you have results of a recent survey which indicates that 60% of Serbs are in favour of closer integration with Russia (that evil, undemocratic, mafia ridden, single party rogue state) ;-)
In any case, the fact that a majority of Serbs want better living standards through the EU (or a partnership with Russia) in no way justifies bombing of civilian infrastructure (= war crimes by the Geneva Convention) without a UN mandate (= naked Hitlerian style agression against a sovereign state).
by vladimir on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 03:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
vdr:
data: 1) the sources and 2) the date of the survey
Do you have links?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 07:25:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Give me 24 hours & I'll post the links.
by vladimir on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 08:02:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
what makes you think tha the Serbs or their government want to join the EU ?

Nothing whatsoever. The diary was about the fact that Serbia is making the use the E75 through their country problematic and expensive, resulting in genuine difficulties for Greece, Bulgaria & Romania, as well as Turkey to trade with the rest of the EU.

I may well believe that it is in Serbia's longterm economic interest to resolve its problems with its neighbours amicably and to join with the EU, or at least achieve a favourable associate status. However, if that is not the view of Serbia's elites or its population, then who am I to argue ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 07:19:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the EU underestimates, at its own peril, the bad blood that the bombing campaign on Serbia in 1999 has caused not only in Serbia, but also in Bulgaria and farther East all the way to Russia.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 07:23:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Share the E75 with Europe... yes
Resolve disputes amicably... yes
Trade with Europe... yes

Allow almost 20% of the country's national territory to be wrenched away - no
Accept 50 B Eur of bombing damages, and smile thankfully at the culprits - no
Accept 250 000 refugees from Croatia, while listening from certain EU members that the Serbs "deserved it" - no
Be forced into a Bosnian, muslim dominated union, against the letter of Dayton and Bosnia's current constitution - no

All these issues are linked.

by vladimir on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 08:14:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I said "However, if that is not the view of Serbia's elites or its population, then who am I to argue ? " It isn't what the diary was about.

Serbia will do what it wants, but they must accept that if you have behaved murderously towards a segment of the population then they may not wish to be associated with you. And may indeed create problems for those assciated with those murderous behaviours who remain close at hand. That's human nature and requires political solutions with larger people of greater vision than seem currently available on either side.

As is pointing fingers as if after a schoolyard fight and saying "it's all their fault". It may be human nature, but it's not helpful.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 10:15:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with you Helen. And that's precisely the reason why the Serbs want nothing to do with NATO and certain EU member states.
by vladimir on Tue Dec 11th, 2007 at 02:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Look at a road map of Central and Eastern Europe

Should be:
Look at a road map of Central and Eastern European part of the EU

And doesn't this thread contradict the thread about the right size of Romania and Bulgaria by the same diarist? If one can't help admiring of horse carts
why not look a bit further and start admiring the country which definitely lives in 22th century already and doesn't bother to build so old-fashioned, so 20th century's roads.

Donkey and horse carts don't need motorways, you know

by lana on Sun Dec 9th, 2007 at 01:57:48 PM EST
Donkey and horse carts don't need motorways, you know

Quite right. Which is why I recommended that a railway be built instead.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 07:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean their donkeys and horses need and are ready to use a railway then?
by lana on Mon Dec 10th, 2007 at 05:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hehe, no, lana, they will pull the trains!!!

like the english canal boats...

"These days, there's nothing more ridiculous than the truth." Leonard Pitts Jr

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Dec 11th, 2007 at 03:39:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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