European Tribune

Benazir martyred, Pakistan in flames

by FarEasterner
Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 12:45:58 AM EST

Former Pakistan's PM Benazir Bhutto (1953-2007) has been assasinated yesterday evening on outskirts of Rawalpindi, the city to the south of Islamabad, famous for numerous security and army institutions (Pakistan army headquarters located there) and infamous for the ongoing serie of suicide attacks by Islamists on them. Now high-profile politician fell victim to suicide squad, apparently from the same stables.

Morning newspapers with identical headlines: Benazir assasinated.


At 17.40 she was leaving the election meeting (elections were supposed to be on Jan 8th) and could not resist the last temptation to wave to the crowd when two gunmen shot her neck and head, in next second exploding hidden bombs. 20 people died on the spot, many more injured, unconscious Benazir was rushed to the local hospital where doctors declared her dead at 18.16 local time.

So turbulent career of "fragrant daughter of the East" came to the tragic, abrupt, but not totally unexpected end.

Pakistan is experiencing the most dangerous phase of its 60-year old history and there are many factors behind its current pathetic plight, from Bush's war on terror against Al Qaeda and Taleban, often ineffective and allegedly corrupt civil administration, frequent military coups and domination of army and intelligence establishment in domestic politics and economy, the policy of support and training of radical Islamist organisations to meet certain external policy objectives in Afghanistan and India etc.

What happens next? Of course all observers are waiting what will be the response to assasination from her party supporters and Pakistani public in general (evening riots in Lahore and Karachi already claimed 13 lives), and how successfully Musharraf handles the security situation. But to some extent the untimely demise of Bhutto may clear the dense fog of Pakistani politics as she was the most unpredictable factor in Pakistani politics. Nobody knew for sure what she stood for and what will be her actions in case of rigging elections. Of course she made many right noises about democracy, the fight against military dictatorships retaining her populist platform, but she was careful enough not to hurt personal interests (be it the question of deposed judges, the pact with Musharraf or Americans' war on terror) and turning her PPP party into Bhutto family's fiefdom (one Pak journalist joked she would prefer to have her Persian cat on the throne than to try with puppet as Sonia Gandhi did in India). Her party is strong in Sindh, in the south and may not disintegrate immediately and still will try to represent Sindhi aspirations but in any case considerably weakened and can be discounted as contender for power in Islamabad.

Mahatma Gandhi assasination by Hindu fanatic Nathuram Godse helped to calm things in aftermath of Partition, but if Benazir sacrificed herself on the altar of Pakistan's democracy unfortunately we cannot expect the same effect as anti-democratic forces both militants and Musharraf's camp are stronger than ever. The best imagined outcome may be if Nawaz Sharif succeed in bringing all democratic forces together and oust deeply unpopular dictatorship starting the painful process of purges in the military and intelligence services to get rid of militants backers (what Musharraf could not afford to do) and bringing about much-needed changes in anti-insurgency strategy, even to the extent of establishing truly federal set-up in Pakistan. But such scenario may well remain distant dream. Unfortunately Sharif cannot expect to come to power by peaceful elections (as they will be rigged by Musharraf), he needs at least backing of some elements in the army to oust Mush. Other and more possible as of now scenarios hold no surprises - either Musharraf will continue or he will be replaced by another general.

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Yesterday evening I switched off TV and read till the end a fantasy novel Hunters of Dune by Brian Herbert and Kevin Anderson. They alleged that novel is based on outline by Frank himself and it seems very likely as novel surprisingly very good for these authors' literary merits evident in 6 prequels to Dune. Trying not to repeat common refrains I checked many reviews sites including Amazon and found the one review by Joanna Daneman from US who expressed exactly what I think of this novel:
By far, Hunters of Dune is the best that son Brian Herbert and collaborator Kevin Anderson have come up with. The scope is broad--so much so that the book was 1300 pages and divided into 2 sequels to Chapterhouse Dune, Frank Herbert's last book. The subject is the new threat to the Bene Gesserit --the plague hitting the Honored Matres, another threat, the Kralizec, an apocalyptic battle forseen by the Navigators of the Guild, and the Face Dancers in a time-net seen by Duncan Idaho. All are heading for a deadly collision.

Brian Herbert had located some important notes on the sequel to Chapterhouse in a safety deposit box or two. The notes were extensive; what did Herbert-pere intend by the two old gardeners (Face Dancers?) at the end of the book? He must have left some extensive sketches, because "Hunters" has more of the scope of a Dune novel than the prequels done by the Herbert/Anderson team.

Still, Herbert-fils tends more to action and less to conversations. The elegant, twisty dialog that his father wrote is not something he can imitate. The book heads faster to the payoff than one would like, though here, the scope is so broad and the action so wide that this problem is less pronounced than in the prequel books. And the character development is not there either; we know Bellonda, who shows up in this book, Duncan, Murbella and Sheeana, so we fill in the blanks. But the new characters, interesting though they might be, are not fleshed out as well as one would like (at least, the protagonists; the villains are as always, easier to draw.) In particular, Doria looked interesting, and she was quite reminiscent of Dortujla (the punished Reverend Mother found on Buzzell in "Chapterhouse") but we don't get to find out much about her. Likewise, the Oracle of Time is very interesting but we really find out little about her characteristics. I realize the book was getting long long long, but still, some character development is important.

I started enjoying this book immensely, but by the end, I was pretty tired and not as hopeful as I was at the beginning. With good character development, these sequels would have been terrific, as the plot sketches were definitely of the Dune quality. But Brian Herbert's style is his own--it's a valid style but it is not a good match to his father's inimitable writing. But I have to say "Hunters" is probably by far Herbert/Anderson's best effort to date.

The best thing about Hunters is that towards the end I felt like immersing in the Dune universe, especially the scene with mysterious Oracle of Time:

The Oracle of Time kept herself aloof. She had existed since before the formation of the Spacing Guild, and in the subsequent millennia she had watched the human race grow and change. She witnessed their various struggles and dreams, their commercial ventures, the building of empires and the wars that tore them back down again.
Within her mind, within her artificial chamber, the Oracle had seen the broad canvas of the infinite universe. The wider her temporal horizons grew, the less significant were individual events or people. Some threats, however, were simply too momentous to ignore.
On her tireless search, the Oracle of Time left her Navigator children behind so that she could continue her solitary mission, while other parts of her vast brain considered possible defenses and methods of attack against the great ancient Enemy.
She plunged intentionally into the twisted alternate...

Enjoy it, it's worthy read.

by FarEasterner on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 12:50:18 AM EST
Well, given the shock and angst that so many people were feeling yesterday over the assassinations, I suspect that losing yourself in a good book was a very good alternative.

Not to derail your excellent Benazir diary or anything, but since you mentioned Dune, I thought I'd throw in a reference to a new book, The Science of Dune, that attempts to analyze the, um, science of Dune.

Authors and experts examine what Herbert gets right and what he gets wrong, how lasguns might work and if Bene Gesserit and mentat capabilities are possible. The book also takes a look at whether the ecology of Dune is realistic or if it's theoretically possible to get information from the future. Could humans really evolve as Herbert suggests? How can one build a windtrap or a stillsuit?

I have no idea how it is; I haven't read it and probably won't ever get around to it, but I know about it because someone I know wrote one of the chapters.  Knowing that we have a number of Dune fans (and scientists) around these parts, I was curious what folks here would think about it.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 05:56:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh no I did not know about what happened till 11PM.
Thanks for Science of Dune but I am not hardcore fun of Dune and vaguely know about many inconsistencies and fantasies in Sci-Fi fiction including Dune.
by FarEasterner on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 07:21:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would Nawaz Sharf have the power to do clean-ups? Or just get assassinated himself/couped again?

Also, during his second governmen, the continued Bhutto's support for the Taliban, and did what Musharraf did now: remove the Chief Justice.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 05:12:53 AM EST
Nobody even he himself knows what he will do if he comes to power.
He seems to be changed man now after years of exile.
by FarEasterner on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 05:16:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody even he himself knows what he will do if he comes to power.

So in that, he is like Bhutto was after all?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 05:32:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
governmen, the

Should be: ...government, he...

Sometimes I commit really amazing typos..

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 08:12:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So who are the factions? As I understand it:

PPP and its remnants, now possibly aligned with Sharif

ISI, who have god only knows what agenda of their own

Islamic militants, who seem to overlap with ISI and probably have links to organised crime through Afghani heroin

Musharraf and a dwindling band of loyalists

The rest of the military, some of whom will be trying to replace Musharraf

The CIA doubtless also has some interest in what's happening.

Is that about right? Or is there more in the pot?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 07:03:54 AM EST
Beluchistan, the Pashtun re-unification aspirations, and the ethnic/regional angles to the other forces too.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 08:14:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And groups in Kashmir.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 08:14:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A good backgrounder, attached.

There are a few names to look for. One PPP leader is Aitzaz Ahsan, who was in solitary confinement recently (don't know if he still is) and told Bhutto not to cooperate with Musharraf, is quite popular, arguably more popular than the almost indisputably corrupt Bhutto. Implacalbe foe of Musharraf; if Washington is serious about democracy in PK rather than maintaining control via alternative conduits, he's a man to watch (but hint - don't hold your breath on Washington's desire for Democracy in PK).  

This might also be a moment for Imran Khan to show he is not the political lightweight many accuse him of being.

"C'est un scandale !"

by redstar on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 10:30:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As'ad AbuKhalil (AKA The Angry Arab) asks what is probably, in the end, a rhetorical question:

Will the US/UN call for an international tribunal to investigate the assassination of Bhutto? Will 10 UNSC resolutions be passed in her honor the way they did with the Hariri guy?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 07:18:42 AM EST
Any news regarding military reaction/action by India?

Has the PRC issued a formal statement regarding the assassination?

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Fri Dec 28th, 2007 at 01:00:16 PM EST


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