Tue Mar 13th, 2007 at 08:29:32 AM EST
The "Political barometer" survey conducted by Sciences Po just released their latest "wave" of data and, as this Le Monde story tells it, there's a lot of data for those of us who have been discussing the campaign to chew on.
The most striking finding is that 4.9% of those polled said they were on the left but planning to vote for Sarkozy. And almost all of them (97%) said Sarkozy had a greater "desire to change" things; and 80% said he better understood people like them. 55% said they expect things to improve if their candidate wins the election. These voters are overwhelmingly lower-income, less well educated and follow politics less closely. Only 13% of these voters consider Royal to be their second choice. And here's the kicker -- women are over-represented in this group.
Another 1.5% of voters who identify with the left and show many of the same sociological characteristics and beliefs plan to vote for LePen (except these voters overwhelmingly do not expect the election to have an impact.)
Then there's a very different group -- what the survey calls "Gaucho-Bayrouistes," which amount to another 4% of the electorate; these are largely well-educated, better off and say they do follow politics closely (which is bizarre, since Bayrou has put out much less of a program then either Royal or Sarkozy!). Only 40% of those (thus, 1% of the electorate) says that Royal is their second choice.
And on the other side, less than 1.5% of the respondans said they were on the "right" but plan to vote for Royal.
So if this data is to be believed, thats pretty clearly whats going on : 10% of the country that feels its values are those of "the left" aren't planning to vote for Royal in the first round (and indeed a majority don't even consider her to be their second choice).
And they come from three very different positions, sociologically and ideologically, so it won't be easy for her to make a dent.