Anyone who has visited the Gulf states knows that they build to the coastline on sandy land that is mere inches above sea level.  The mountain ranges behind the flat plains are marked with wadis - dry river beds - that are ideal conduits for flash floods.  The picture below is the Qalhat LNG terminal, with cities being just bigger spreads of such construction.

Now imagine massive rain, 100 mph winds and tidal surges of 1-2m inundating and pounding those plains simultaneously.  As of yesterday the official line being spun from the Gulf was not to worry, that the oil would keep flowing.  As of this morning, I find that line impossible to believe.  

Whether it is the flooding, the winds, the sandstorms or the tidal surge, the damage to an area never before hit by a storm like this will be massive.  Construction in the Gulf is not designed for severe weather. There hasn't been a storm like this in Oman since 1977 and the last cyclone to hit Iran was in 1945.  It is doubtful that oil infrastructure has sufficient flood defenses or structural protection either.

As with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the loss of electrical power and damage to homes and roads will prevent rapid recovery.  In the Gulf there are the added problems of little drinking water if desalination plants are offline and the need to ship in absolutely every resource and building material except stone.

The humanitarian damage could be huge, impacting Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Pakistan.  Karachi may be hit by tidal swells, flooding over a mile inland.

The implications for the price of oil are not pretty.  Discussion on The Oil Drum is pointing toward a sharp spike in oil prices, even if Gonu only shuts shipments from the Gulf for a few days.  Any damage to oil platforms, rigs, shipping terminals or tankers which requires more prolonged repair will sharply impact oil prices over the summer and into the fall, particularly in Asia but also worldwide.  The latest on the storm from Arabian Business indicates that oil and natural gas shipments from Oman will be shut down for at least three days.

As an interesting sidelight, the US ability to stage a wider war may be hit by the cyclone.  Our airbase in Oman was on an island directly in the path of the cyclone which was evacuated of its 7,000 inhabitants yesterday.  It isn't clear whether the planes remained or were moved in advance of the storm.  Our fleet will be bottled up in the Persian Gulf, riding the storm out.  

The best site for monitoring the progress of Gonu is weatherunderground.com, where Margie Kieper and Steve Gregory are blogging the storm.  The Oil Drum has a new thread up on the implications for the oil industry which projects severe disruption:

KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 25-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 15-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards. (NB: These damage estimates have increased with each successive model run...and assume US construction standards.)

The latest news from the Gulf is very sketchy as the storm is hitting.  The following is from the Khaleej Times:

The wind speed has gone down from 260 kilometres (160 miles) an hour to between 120 and 176 kilometres (71 and 105 miles) an hour, Omani weather officials said.

The impact of the cyclone on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where at least a quarter of world oil supplies passes, is not clear.

It is worth remembering that Oman provided $15 million in aid to the people of New Orleans, and that people throughout the region will be entirely unprepared for what is coming at them.

One of the fondest memories I have of my time in the Gulf in 2005 is snorkling in the Gulf of Oman with my children.  They had never been in open water, struggling against waves and current.  They were a half-mile from shore and panicking when a sea turtle popped up between us, rolling over in the gleaming sunshine to show us his agility in the water.  Two seconds later those boys were heads down, bums up, enthralled with the turtle, fish, coral and plants a few meters below the surface.  The beaches where the turtles nest are likely being swept away today.

This morning I am praying for the peoples of the Gulf of Oman as they confront Cyclone Gonu.  I hope those that suffer will be supported by compassion and practical relief.  And I hope that Americans will bear the higher cost of gasoline over the summer driving season with good grace.

In the meanwhile, I urge you to fill your gas tanks today.  Prices will be rising quickly with those tankers bottled up and supplies disrupted.