Pareto and Ricardo - a Parable

by rdf
Sun Aug 26th, 2007 at 06:54:42 PM EST

One of the fundamental ideas of economics is Pareto efficiency. Wikipedia has a good summary. This will suffice:

"Given a set of alternative allocations and a set of individuals, a movement from one allocation to another that can make at least one individual better off, without making any other individual worse off..."

The key words are "better" and "worse".

David Ricardo is responsible for another fundamental idea, comparative advantage.

"...it can be beneficial for two parties (countries, regions, individuals and so on) to trade if one has a lower relative cost of producing some good. What matters is not the absolute cost of production but the opportunity cost, which measures how much production of one good is reduced to produce one more unit of the other good."

The key word in this case is "beneficial".

I propose to give some little scenarios and see where they lead.


The two farmers
Farmer A breeds cattle while farmer B grows grain. They trade with each other so that both end up with a well-balanced diet. They are both good stewards of their land and when they die they turn their farms over to the next generation in pretty much the same state as when they got them. Everything is in balance, people and nature. Both farmers are getting a good deal. Pareto and Ricardo are both happy.

The two farmers (revised)
Once again farmer A breeds cattle, but farmer B finds coal beneath his land. He stops farming and starts mining. Now he trades beef for coal. Farmer A wants to stay warm in winter so he is willing to trade. Once again Pareto and Ricardo are both happy. Eventually both farmers die and their farms go to the next generation. Farmer A's descendants continue to grow cattle. Farmer B's descendants find a depleted coal mine and a ruined landscape that is no longer suitable for growing grain. Trade ceases.

The two farmers consult an economist
This time when farmer B decides to go into the coal business he consults an economist who tells him about "externalities". "You can't just sell your coal for the cost of production" he says, "you must include the value of the non-renewable resource in your price". So farmer B does. Coal costs more and the market adapts. Both farmers are still getting what they need. Now three economists are happy. But when farmers A and B die, their heirs are still faced with the same situation. Farmer B's heirs have nothing to sell, but they do have the extra money that accumulated because of the compensation for resource depletion. How does this help? You can't eat money. You can't spend it elsewhere, everyone else is in the same position.

The ideas of "better", "worse" and "beneficial" break down when the resources run out. They provide a false measure for current trade in that they ignore resource depletion which is a penalty applied to future generations. These people have no say in the the current market transactions. Treating these externalities as equivalent to money doesn't work either. When the resource is gone, it's gone. Claiming that one can substitute something else is just postponing the inevitable. In order for this money to be useful in the future there will need to be an excess of material available to purchase. But this is exactly what we don't have. Non-renewables are just that, gone when they are gone. No amount of money will bring them back. All arguments about increasing production as marginal supplies become economically viable, as the price rises with scarcity, are also just postponing the inevitable.

Economics seems as if it cannot deal with this. Ultimately everything gets equated with money and money has no value if there is nothing to spend it on.

It is clear that some resources are going to be in short supply more quickly than others. There won't be a total breakdown of global society. However there will be regional problems, some of which have already emerged. The most important limits are those of arable land and fresh water. China has 0.2 acres of arable land per person compared with 1.5 in the US. Nearly 500 million people in China lack access to safe drinking water. Conditions in parts of Africa are even worse.

These societies existed for thousands of years in a quasi-stable state. They were buffeted by environmental extremes and by man-made disasters such as wars, but in general things were in balance. What has shifted is that people are consuming more than can be sustained. This requires the exploitation of non-renewable resources. Improvements in health and nutrition (the green revolution) have led to a world-wide population explosion. This is unprecedented and, once again, traditional economic models are ill-equipped to handle the situation.

The world has taken two approaches to this impending dislocation. There are the anti-Malthusians. Who basically say, "technology solved the problems in the past and will do so in the future. Don't worry." Arguing from historical analogy proves nothing. Everything is fine until the perfect storm arrives...

The other group the neo-Malthusians say "the sky is falling", but nobody wants to listen to them. As with the cattle grower and the coal miner, the consequences of over consumption now will be problems for future generations to deal with. Let's not stop the party. So far the neo-Malthusians haven't been able to come up with a compelling argument as to why people should care. We have tried ethical and moral arguments, appeals to altruism and even trying to find reasons why restructuring consumption now will have a beneficial effect in the present. Nothing has captured the public's mind and no economist is will to take on the task.

I have no solution, but I keep rewriting variation on my parables in the hopes that some bright person will come along with some new ideas.

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 But when farmers A and B die, their heirs are still faced with the same situation. Farmer B's heirs have nothing to sell, but they do have the extra money that accumulated because of the compensation for resource depletion

The point is that the "Money" they now have is not "Value" - which equates to "something to sell" but its exact opposite - "anti-Value" ie a claim over Value or IOU issued by a credit intermediary aka a Bank, and backed by very little "Value" at all.

It's the difference between "Money" and "Money's Worth".

Ultimately everything gets equated with money and money has no value if there is nothing to spend it on.

Money has no Value, any more than a centimetre or a kilogram has a value. It MEASURES Value.

As John Law said

Money is not the Value for which Goods are exchanged, but the Value by which they are exchanged.

The farmers' problem writ large becomes the non-renewables vs renewables conundrum of "how do we finance renewables?"

And we do it by creating a "Pool" of future renewables energy production.

This "Pool" is a fund in which we may buy units (say MegaWatt/ Hrs or equivalent)by exchanging something of Value for them.

This fund then invests in renewable energy on the one hand and energy efficiency projects  - eg the roll out of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) networks - on the other.

These "investments" are in fact "energy loans" repayable over time in energy production at the market price, or - where energy savings have been financed - in payments made to the pool to repay the "energy loan", and financed by actual energy savings.

ie Joe Blow pays a Utility for the (reduced amount) of energy consumed, and the Pool for the energy loaned, until the loan is repaid.

In other words the "Pool" purchases future production of renewables and future flows of heat or energy savings at an agreed price, which may be a discount on today's price.

These streams of energy constitute "Value" or "Money's Worth", and if our farmers had exchanged their coal for units of future renewable energy, then they would have had something they COULD sell.

Similarly, there is the point that the farmers could have utilised their excess earnings to acquire the right to occupy farming land to replac what they had ruined.

This is where perhaps the most important form of Value comes in, and that is the right to occupy land over time.

It is this form of Value that in fact forms the backing for most of the "deficit-based" money currently in circulation, which came into existence through the creation of mortgage loans.

I believe that it is quite straightforward (REIT's are virtually there already)to create "Land Rental Pools" which have the potential to become a new and "fungible" asset class capable of forming something else that your farmers could sell.

The result would essentially be what people would regard as a land-backed Money: not a new idea - John Law put this forward in 1705

Money & Trade Consider'd

But he did rather f--k up the implementation in France with the Mississippi Bubble (which some would say led to the Louisiana Purchase and the modern USA).....

The bottom line is that we need to "Reverse the Polarity" of Money, and this IMHO is not just possible, but already beginning to happen.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 04:49:02 AM EST
The value arrises with cooperation. Money or market are just mediators.

In effect, libertarians think that consious cooperation is naive or not possible - it has to be forced by market relations.

by das monde on Wed Aug 29th, 2007 at 09:26:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except for charity, of course, which will be sufficient to deal with all unfairness.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 29th, 2007 at 09:30:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The two farmers think ahead...
This time, when farmer B decides to mine the coal, he decides to manage the externalities by investing in alternate physical infrastructure rather than money in a pile. With the profits from the coal mining operation, and together with farmer A who's got plenty of grazing land for cattle, the two set out to build, maintain and operate a windfarm cooperative with the land in dual use for grazing cattle. Future generations continue this development, and live happily and prosperously ever after. How lucky they were that those before them thought to appreciate the underground riches so fortuitously made available to them as a limited resource of energy, and knew enough to reinvest this energy in a form of infrastructure that could perpetuate its bounty.

Long term stewardship of the earth as an enormous, connected, 'closed' system, with a fine, near constant, energy flux provided by the sun. What we see our 'economy' ('market'?) do to the various non-renewable resources seems like "eating ones seed corn". Or living high on start-up capital, without realising that if one does not make the proper investments, the party will come to an end one day, and one is left them without assets. Coal and hydro-carbons has offered us a bounty of concentrated, high-quality energy. The real tragedy is the failure to invest this energy in a way that it may perpetuate itself longterm.

How does one argue successfully for this? This is, um, difficult... This is about opinion formation, i.e. we need good propaganda (pdf). The people must be taught/told what to think, just as they must be coerced into buying pianos:

If, for instance, I want to sell pianos, it is not sufficient to blanket the country with a direct appeal
...
The modern propagandist therefore sets to work to create circumstances which will modify that custom. He appeals perhaps to the home instinct which is fundamental. He will endeavor to develop public acceptance of the idea of a music room in the home.
...
The music room will be accepted because it has been made the thing. And the man or woman who has a music room, or has arranged a corner of the parlor as a musical corner, will naturally think of buying a piano. It will come to him as his own idea.

Under the old salesmanship the manufacturer said to the prospective purchaser, "Please buy a piano." The new salesmanship has reversed the process and caused the prospective purchaser to say to the manufacturer, "Please sell me a piano."


So, we are back to the "get rich, buy media" point, again...
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 05:10:10 AM EST
"...coerced into buying pianos."

I wouldn't call your example coercion, unless one wants to stretch the term to include almost all social processes that shape human preferences and behavior. But if one did, what word would we use when someone says "Give me everything you own in exchange for this piano, or I'll blow your brains out and kick your dog"?

I'd like to reserve the word "coercion" for using force to force action. Persuasion and social pressure deserve a nicer name.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 03:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just because nobody "put a gun to your head" (to use the favourite metaphor of American libertarians) doesn't mean there wasn't coercion.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 03:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. My question, though, is how far the term "coercion" can be stretched before meaning drains from it. Where was the coercion in the piano example?

I object to stretching the use of this term for the same reason that I object to the debasement of WMD. If (as was recently argued) nukes = nerve gas = burning phosphorous = (why not?) napalm -- all of them "weapons of mass destruction", haven't we eroded, at least somewhat, the moral line that sets nuclear war off limits?

Likewise, if discrimination = genocide (as I've heard from time to time), isn't the concept, and horror, of genocide cheapened?

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Tue Aug 28th, 2007 at 10:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was using the terms 'coercion' and 'propaganda' to indicate that what is needed is the right message pushed again and again, relentlessly. It is not a matter of getting the 'facts' to the public, but to repeatedly present the same talking points to be assimilated and absorbed through rote repetition, rather than as a process of 'rational' 'reasoning'. Thus, not appealing to what I would consider 'legitimate' methods of persuasion, but rather as an argument from authority, and of stupid repetition, I would consider it a form of coercion.

The 'coercion' in the piano example is the process whereby the ownership of a piano is established as a norm for those in a particular socio-economic segment. Much in the same way, 'correct' ideas and opinions on the extraction and stewardship of natural resources, the environment and economic activity need to be established as a norm of 'all right thinking individuals', as the 'markets are best' mantra is right now.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Wed Aug 29th, 2007 at 10:58:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the case of The two farmers consult an economist, can't the money inherited by the heirs of farmer B be used to restore the land to a somewhat productive state?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 08:53:01 AM EST
What's the economic incentive?

Apparently there is none as the large number of abandoned mines around the world attest. Some governments are now requiring that a fund be set up to "restore" the landscape after mining ceases. Sometimes they do manage to cover the slag heaps with some topsoil, but you still can't put the coal back in the ground.

The Bushies have just reintroduced a proposal that will allow miners to continue to take the tops of mountains off into the Appalachia and push the material in the streams and valleys below. Over 1200 miles of streams have already been buried this way. The new proposal will make it impossible for localities to sue to prevent the environmental damage.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 09:48:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know the coal cannot be put back into the ground. The economic incentive is that family B has to make a living somehow. You're claiming they now have no livelihood because their land has no productive soil. They have the money and they can use it to start a new economic activity. That is the difference with the second story. If they do have other things they can do it's not the end of the parable. If they don't, maybe the money can be used to restore the topsoil.

Oh, and even in the case of the second story family B could go to work for the cattle farmer.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 09:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hello, Migeru!

To smooth your first scenario -- As they receive money, they can (or should) invest in productive assets.

None of this, of course, reaches the question of inter-generational equity and non-renewable resources.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 03:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the questions this diary motivates for me is how the cost of building an alternative productive infrastructure factors into the "fair" price of a non-renewable resource. Also, what the value of the non-renewable resource should be in the first place. The correct answer cannot be that a non-renewable resource has to be too valuable to use at all. It's probably correct to expect the total (all the way to depletion) value of the resource to be infinite, but just because something is not renewable doesn't mean it shouldn't be used.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 03:57:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why no one should care for what Neo-Malthusians say: One problem is that the Neo-Malthusians tend in general to be a**holes who parrot the constant refrain 'population is the problem', when this cannot possibly be true when (e.g.) 5% of the world's population consume 25% of the world's resources (extend to include Europe, Japan and Australia). Malthus is about population versus food supply growth, but modern problems are about a small percentage of industrial peoples screwing up an already deeply f*cked world at the expense of everyone else. (In turn, this is not a matter of individual choice, but a systemic problem originating in the nature of capitalism.) It's bad enough that the rest of the poor bastards have to deal with quasi-feudal conditions, without having to factor in climate change and sea level rise as well.

You yourself point this out when you mention that populations such as China's were stable for generations.

It isnt't about population. F*ck Malthus. It's about a small percentage of brainwashed, ball-less f*cks (that's us) lying down and taking it all in return for a few consumer goods ... in return for the destruction of the Earth. And it is personal, for those of us who have children, for they are the ones who will face the consequences. Want a definition of cowardice? Ask your contemporaries to look in the mirror. (Ask me to look in the mirror ... I have children.)

If you think this is an exaggeration, look at what Wat Tyler and 200K peasants did in the absence not only of the Internet, but a modern postal system. And they only failed because they were such trusting and fundamentally honourable saps. We should all cry for shame.

by wing26 on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 10:01:36 AM EST
Interesting that you should mention Wat Tyler, because I think the 14th century might teach us some things about the 21st.

It appears that at the beginning of the 14th century Europe was overpopulated (i.e., overconsuming). The collapse after the overshoot came in the form of (mainly, but not only) the Black Death, which wiped out a substantial fraction of the population.

Economically, what happened after the Black Death (at least in England) was that a smaller amount of peasants were available to work the land for the nobles and pay taxes to the King. The powerful did all in their power to contain wage increases resulting from shortage of labour. Apparently (in modern terms) the GDP dropped but the GDP per capita increased. A couple of decades after the Black Death fewer people were living in better conditions than a couple of decades before it.

But the State still had essentially the same expenses as before. The subjects might have been decimated but there was still one Kingdom and one King with the same need for revenue (to finance, for instance, the 100 Years' War). So Richard II levied three poll taxes in the 1370's, each more... er... taxing (no pun intended) than the previous one.

So if our global economy does collapse this century (it has been argued it's already overshot as it exceeded sustainable consumption in the 1980's) we might see that the powerful will find ways of extracting the same aggregate level of resources from te powerless to allow their activities to continue at the same pace as before, but with fewer people to "tax" something will have to give.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 10:17:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A couple of decades after the Black Death fewer people were living in better conditions than a couple of decades before it.

Um, that was confusingly worded. What I mean to say is that a couple of decades after the Black Death living conditions had improved for individual peasants but there were fewer of them.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 01:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I remember it, in the end in western europe the peasants were able to get a better deal then before as they used their bargaining power versus local landlords. Moved to less demanding landlords estates and such.

In eastern europe the peasants got a worse deal after the Black Death. Similar conditions as in the west, but here the nobility succeeded in enforcing a harsher serfdom, tying the peasants to the land and denying them the freedom to move about. Thus robbing them of their negotiating power.

Changing the material base of the society changes the society, but in what direction depends on what people do about it. And I have a nagging feeling that todays version of nobility is already acting.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 06:30:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It  seems relevant to mention that the harsher treatment of  the peasants in Eastern Europe would ultimately come to a bad end. When the serfs were finally freed in Russia (around 1861, I believe)they numbered around 20 million and in no small way factored into the revolts and ulitmately the 1917 revolution. Apparently, they still resented paying redemption payments to the state, and demanded communal tender of the land they worked. Of course, that was only one of a multitude of causes for revolution, but, given how rapidly the US is disintergrating--without pensions, limited healthcare, limited education and an increasing scarcity of well paying jobs, I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing frequent riots in the cities --that aren't just 'race' riots.
by delicatemonster (delicatemons@delicatemonster.com) on Tue Aug 28th, 2007 at 12:59:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It isnt't about population. F*ck Malthus.

What you say is partially correct.  Over use of resources by industrialized countries, etc.  But, China is overpopulated relative to domestic resources and recognizes the fact.  In short too much productive "F*cking. Eventually, we may all be accused of the same thing.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 01:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The two farmers consult an economist

Can't they just eat the economist instead?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 02:51:51 PM EST
But are economists a renewable resource?

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 03:45:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately....

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 03:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Economist is rational and loves money.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/dark-art-of-econometrics/2007/08/26/1188066946510.html#

Dark art of econometrics

I DOUBT if the economics profession has ever worried much about ethics - its own or anyone else's - but perhaps it should. A profession with no disapprobation of dubious conduct is asking to have its reputation trashed.

Economists give no thought to ethics or other social norms of behaviour because such matters find no place in their neoclassical model.

To an economist it's no insult to assume that businesses are motivated solely by a desire to maximise their profits. Would they sell their services to the highest bidder? Of course; it would be irrational to do otherwise.

Indeed, so far from worrying about ethics, there are some economists who believe it's irrational to obey the law unless the chance of getting caught, combined with the size of the penalty, is sufficient to outweigh the benefits of breaking it.

So it's not likely many economists are much exercised over the growing practice of private firms of economic consultants making a living by selling their expertise as econometric modellers to governments or interest groups that are pushing or opposing particular policies.

[...]

If commercial modellers were as independent and respectable as is claimed, they'd put far more effort into spelling out and drawing attention to their model's limitations. Instead, they calm their consciences by including an impenetrable disclaimer somewhere in the report, knowing full well that their customers and others will quote (and misquote) their results with nary a reference to the disclaimer. It will be read only by those who don't need to be told.

Equally, commercial modellers would put more effort into correcting the record whenever their customers and others misrepresent their findings, which is ubiquitous. They know full well the way their findings will be misrepresented, but it doesn't seem to give them pause.

The activities of the commercial modellers will eventually discredit the use of economic modelling in the public policy debate. But models are so potentially misleading that this may be no bad thing.

Via Mark thoma.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Aug 27th, 2007 at 04:56:01 PM EST


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