|
by rdf
One of the fundamental ideas of economics is Pareto efficiency. Wikipedia has a good summary. This will suffice:
"Given a set of alternative allocations and a set of individuals, a movement from one allocation to another that can make at least one individual better off, without making any other individual worse off..." The key words are "better" and "worse". David Ricardo is responsible for another fundamental idea, comparative advantage. "...it can be beneficial for two parties (countries, regions, individuals and so on) to trade if one has a lower relative cost of producing some good. What matters is not the absolute cost of production but the opportunity cost, which measures how much production of one good is reduced to produce one more unit of the other good." The key word in this case is "beneficial". I propose to give some little scenarios and see where they lead.
The two farmers
Farmer A breeds cattle while farmer B grows grain. They trade with each other so that both end up with a well-balanced diet. They are both good stewards of their land and when they die they turn their farms over to the next generation in pretty much the same state as when they got them. Everything is in balance, people and nature. Both farmers are getting a good deal. Pareto and Ricardo are both happy.
The two farmers (revised)
The two farmers consult an economist The ideas of "better", "worse" and "beneficial" break down when the resources run out. They provide a false measure for current trade in that they ignore resource depletion which is a penalty applied to future generations. These people have no say in the the current market transactions. Treating these externalities as equivalent to money doesn't work either. When the resource is gone, it's gone. Claiming that one can substitute something else is just postponing the inevitable. In order for this money to be useful in the future there will need to be an excess of material available to purchase. But this is exactly what we don't have. Non-renewables are just that, gone when they are gone. No amount of money will bring them back. All arguments about increasing production as marginal supplies become economically viable, as the price rises with scarcity, are also just postponing the inevitable. Economics seems as if it cannot deal with this. Ultimately everything gets equated with money and money has no value if there is nothing to spend it on. It is clear that some resources are going to be in short supply more quickly than others. There won't be a total breakdown of global society. However there will be regional problems, some of which have already emerged. The most important limits are those of arable land and fresh water. China has 0.2 acres of arable land per person compared with 1.5 in the US. Nearly 500 million people in China lack access to safe drinking water. Conditions in parts of Africa are even worse. These societies existed for thousands of years in a quasi-stable state. They were buffeted by environmental extremes and by man-made disasters such as wars, but in general things were in balance. What has shifted is that people are consuming more than can be sustained. This requires the exploitation of non-renewable resources. Improvements in health and nutrition (the green revolution) have led to a world-wide population explosion. This is unprecedented and, once again, traditional economic models are ill-equipped to handle the situation. The world has taken two approaches to this impending dislocation. There are the anti-Malthusians. Who basically say, "technology solved the problems in the past and will do so in the future. Don't worry." Arguing from historical analogy proves nothing. Everything is fine until the perfect storm arrives... The other group the neo-Malthusians say "the sky is falling", but nobody wants to listen to them. As with the cattle grower and the coal miner, the consequences of over consumption now will be problems for future generations to deal with. Let's not stop the party. So far the neo-Malthusians haven't been able to come up with a compelling argument as to why people should care. We have tried ethical and moral arguments, appeals to altruism and even trying to find reasons why restructuring consumption now will have a beneficial effect in the present. Nothing has captured the public's mind and no economist is will to take on the task.
I have no solution, but I keep rewriting variation on my parables in the hopes that some bright person will come along with some new ideas. |
Menu
. Home
. About . Contact . New User Guide . FAQ . ET Editorial Guidelines . Search . Search (Google) Login
|
||
|
Pareto and Ricardo - a Parable | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Pareto and Ricardo - a Parable | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
| ||||
| ||||