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Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short

by FarEasterner
Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 06:29:50 AM EST

If yesterday Nawaz Sharif, ousted in coup in 1999 Pakistan PM, was daring this country military ruler Musharraf to deport him back to Saudi Arabia, today his illusions about Musharraf's intentions to cling to power at any cost be it cut of American aid or international and domestic outcry are shattered.

What next for this troubled South Asian country given its importance on so-called the war on terror?

From the diaries ~ whataboutbob

Sharif was travelling to Islamabad from London in company of British lawmakers and journalists.

There are some good accounts how was the journey and he was lured out by authorities - they promised to arrest him, instead after short scuffle managed to overpower 57-year old politician and put him into waiting another aircraft.

On the spot: how Sharif was duped

The first round went to President Pervez Musharraf this morning as the former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was dramatically arrested, and later deported, on his arrival at Islamabad airport after seven years of exile.

Mr Sharif was lured into a trap, duped off his plane into the airport terminal - where the mood changed suddenly, and he was accused of embezzlement and money-laundering and manhandled away.

In the melee as paramilitary police in black T-shirts held him in an armlock Mr Sharif brushed right past me, and we had the briefest of conversations.

"I'm amazed by this fabricated case against me," he gasped, repeating: "I'm amazed." He seemed lost for words.

You can read this account in full especially I liked this:

As the plane descended, he and his aides left the first class lounge and came back to where we were sitting in economy class, where they cocooned him in the middle of as many people as possible.

Very characteristic of selfish politicians, really?
Use of press and passengers as living shield.
Musharraf never hide his contempt for Shariff accusing him in incompetence and corruption. Very probably there is some truth in these allegations but Sharif escapade with return enhanced his stature as the leader of opposition and if elections take place and are not rigged his party may expect surge in popularity ousting military regime and collaborators like Bhutto.

But there is more urgent aspect on whether elections will happen at all and country again will move under military regime with all sorts of restrictions.
This will depend on details of upcoming struggle between Army (Musharraf or other generals) and judiciary (lead by chief justice Chowdhury). How Supreme Court will take apparent contempt of its own ruling allowing Shariff brothers to return by executive?

This is question Pakistan observers want to know answer.

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Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 2)

The choice between an inept power-player and a general losing his grip on power... no hope for Pakistan. But I wonder if and whether the Western media will 'discover' Sharif as the Great Hope For Democracy. Oh, and there is the third in the illustrious bunch:

collaborators like Bhutto

I missed that. In what did she collaborate? Last I heard she was still banished too and railing against Musharraf and Sharif. (Where if I remember correctly Sharif played similar games with her as Musharraf now with him.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Sep 10th, 2007 at 02:36:39 PM EST

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 4)

she was not banished, she is in self imposed exile.
there are no obstacles to her return except pending corruption cases.
besides a question of confrontation between chief justice Chowdhury and president Musharraf there are some uncomfortable questions for americans to answer.
first what about velvet revolution in Pakistan?
to what extent self proclaimed prodemocratic US is ready to support rotten dictatorship in Pakistan?
why just at the end of last week US again offered military and aid sops to Musharraf, to thank him in advance for his actions?
US foreign policy hypocrisy is very well known in Asia, while it swear to support prodemocratic Georgia against Russia it turns a blind eye to dictatorship elsewhere be it Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or Pakistan and has not much interest in Myanmar or Tibet. The reasons are easy to say - in Myanmar or Tibet US has no strategic interests while in Azerbaijan president Aliev II is friendly to concerns of Western oil majors.

by FarEasterner on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 01:37:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 2)

to what extent self proclaimed prodemocratic US is ready to support rotten dictatorship in Pakistan?

Until they see even a faint hope that he'll retain power and cooperate with them? We should know since Pinochet that dictators can not only be "our son-of-a-bitches", but the best hope for democracy...

in Myanmar or Tibet US has no strategic interests

I'd say it does: to strategically weaken China, the same way Russia/the Soviet Union was 'encircled'. I rather think inaction there is a sign of real weakness, a weakness that was meant to be clouded with the war in Iraq, and a weakness many European governments still can't see when following politics of vassaldom.

Would the US even attempt to organise a velvet revolution in Pakistan, I am curious whom you think they'd support as leader. Do you think the US could bet on Sharif?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 03:07:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 2)

I don't know whom Americans should support, they just have to force Musharraf to hold free elections and allow exiles to return. They apparently did not bother, offering ailing dictator medicines to prolong his term in power.

What they should do is to stop preaching about their global quest for democracy. Facts do not support this tall claim.

by FarEasterner on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 03:23:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (none / 1)

Should and would are two completely different things, and I agree with you about the should part. But you answered the would part with the other comment -- so they are really as desperate as to stick with two political corpses (Musharraf & Bhutto).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 09:04:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (none / 1)

(I note for clarification that I read 'velvet revolution' as 'coloured revolution', e.g. pseudo-revolution engineered for the world media.)

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 09:06:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 2)

How can you deport someone from their own country?

by IdiotSavant on Mon Sep 10th, 2007 at 07:43:11 PM EST

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (none / 1)

If the destination country (in this case the UK) will let the deportee in... Which leads me to my other question: how come so many exiles end up in London?

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 02:02:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 3)

So now it becomes clear that round one went to Musharraf. But he did not win over the country's press by deportation of Sharif - former Pakistan PM who is now under virtual house arrest in Saudi Arabia can also claim success of sorts at least on opposition front. The press uniformly condemned the action.

US denied their hand in deportation of Sharif, but that seems unlikely.

"It's a matter for the Pakistanis to resolve," said state department spokesman Sean McCormack Monday, denying Washington had anything to do with it when asked to comment on "almost a universal perception in Pakistan" that the US had a hand in it.
....
McCormack also denied the presence of two state department officials, deputy secretary John Negroponte and assistant secretary Richard Boucher, had anything to do with the action against Sharif.

"No. As a matter of fact, it's coincidence that the timing of this particular strategic dialogue takes place right now... This is something that had been scheduled prior to the political calendar, shall we say, that's unfolding now in Pakistan."

But he would not say if the two officials had any message for Musharraf or any other Pakistani leaders about the situation "at this point."

So what US want to achieve in Pakistan?

I have found a good analysis of Western intentions:

Nawaz Sharif is not part of the American script for the war on terror and the future of Pakistan, written by mandarins in the US State Department. He is considered neither fish nor fowl, too close to the fundamentalist mullahs and too unpredictable.

The real script is to save the beleaguered Gen Pervez Musharraf, and involves another former prime minister in exile - the fragrant Daughter of the East, Benazir Bhutto. When in a few weeks' time she repeats yesterday's homecoming saga from London, she will be welcomed by the very police that manhandled Mr Sharif and she will be allowed to lead a procession to her home town.

That is because the West is desperate to bring her and Gen Musharraf into a loveless marriage so that the general can combat the terrorists and the lady play democracy. This, they hope, can keep the crumbling edifice of military rule going for a few more years or at least until Osama bin Laden is winkled out of his home in the tribal regions of North and South Waziristan.

But according to this analyst this plan will inevitably fail because: 1. Ms Bhutto popularity plummeted, 2. Pakistan's army successes in the war on terror are questionable, and 3. Chief justice Chowdhury, who can bar Musharraf from reelection.
It seems that Sharif deportation bought Musharraf and his Western allies only little time.

by FarEasterner on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 08:18:05 AM EST

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 3)

For the first two years after the coup the US (initially under Clinton) was taking the right position of pressuring Musharraf to fulfill his promise to hold "free and fair elections". Then 9/11 happened and the US blew it in Pakistan, because Musharraf's position is untenable and when he goes he won't be replaced by a friend of the US. Maybe that explains the US realignment with India.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 08:30:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short (4.00 / 2)

Thanks! Now your comment about Bhutto makes sense to me (also after I read Metatone's diary a week or so ago).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 09:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

From the article you link (4.00 / 4)

Two weeks ago US and Nato forces in Afghanistan were shocked to discover that 300 Pakistani soldiers - their erstwhile partners in the war on terrorism - had surrendered to the Taliban in Waziristan without firing a shot.

Soldiers in the badlands controlled by the Taliban and al-Qa'eda are deserting or refusing to open fire. The White House is panic-stricken.

"Were shocked," "is panic stricken"--strong words, but words which suggest that what we suspect, and yet find hard to believe, is true: The US really has no clue about what is going on in that region of the world, and believes self-constructed fantasies worthy of untaught schoolchildren.

To be blunt, they should have expected this.

But that goes to a point you vaguely hint at: Does the US have ANYONE they can use for their ends besides the unhappy pair of Musharraf and Bhutto? Probably not. Plainly the US itself is unaware of anyone. And so we get the plan of "a loveless marriage"--nice phrase!--"so that the general can combat the terrorists and the lady play democracy."

The US is riding the downside of a delusion. No choice but to back Musharraf as long as he lasts.

It is not actually fated, but the crisis is at that stage where the principals can be counted on to refuse enlightenment and instead cling to their errors.

Right into the abyss.

by Gaianne on Tue Sep 11th, 2007 at 04:20:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nawaz triumphant homecoming cut short | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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