European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

Countdown to $100 oil (55) - and the winner is...

by Jerome a Paris
Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 04:14:18 PM EST

Here's a result that I can give even before the first primary in Iowa: the winner of the annual "Countdown to $100 oil" bottle of champagne for the best guess of the end-of-the-year price for oil.

And I almost won, this time, having bet, like the previous years, on $100 oil. The final price on 31 December is $95.98 for the month-forward price for WTI, the index used in each contest.

Meteor Blades won the contest in 2005 (see diary 20 below); wchurchill won in 2006 (see diary 38 below) and was kind enough to donate his bottle to Fran for her great work setting up the Salons, European Tribune's daily round-up of news and stories.

o, without further ado, the winners:

tied for first place: funlunvn1 and super simian with a bet at $97;

the runner-up is OCD with $94.40;

honorable mentions go to ET regulars A Siegel ($93.57), nanne ($93.34), ManfromMiddletown ($98.70) and poemless ($99).

It seems that the majority of bets were too low (many in the $70-90 range), reflecting the fact that bets were taken in September, just before the spike that sent prices almost all the way to $100.

Of course, there is a large element of chance in being asked to bet a price on a specific date rather something more representative like an average over the year (or over a quarter): short term variations have been quite large (several dollars in the course of a day) lately.

But the trend signified by the change from last year's close is very real, and going in only one direction:

Crude oil for February delivery fell 2 cents to close at $95.98 a barrel at 3:03 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose 57 percent in 2007, the biggest annual percentage gain since 2002. New York futures reached a record $99.29 on Nov. 21 as a weaker dollar made crude cheaper in other currencies.
(...)
Crude prices in New York have gained 42 percent in euros this year, 48 percent in yen and 55 percent in British pounds.

It's worth noting that the dollar's weakness somewhat reduced the increase in oil prices in other currencies, but did not change the fact that oil prices increased massively for everybody: +42% in euros is still a lot. so this is not just about the dollar, this is about oil, and the increasing difficulty for supply to provide for a demand that continues to expand strongly.

So I expect the symbolic $100 line to be breached by the WTI forward in the near future. So, beyond opening soon another Countdown diary to take bets for the end-2008 price, I'll probably need to have a diary to select the most appropriate target to continue the series once the first goal is reached.

In the meantime, many cheers for the winners (who are invited to contact me by email to organize the logistcis of sending them the champagne), and many thanks to all that participated in the betting, and in commenting in the Countdown diaries.

:: ::

. Home
. About
. Contact
. New User Guide
. FAQ
. Search
. Search (Google)
. Archives (Wiki)
Art, Economics, Energy, Environment, EU Politics, Mech & Tech, By Country

Username:
Password:

. Make a new account
. Reset password

Countdown to $100 oil (55) - and the winner is... | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

and the winner is... (4.00 / 2)

Congratulations to the winners and commiserations to the near-misses. With a bet on $68 I must have been one of the furthest out. I recommend ignoring any predictions I make.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 06:21:46 AM EST

Re: and the winner is... (none / 1)

Since I placed my bet just below the (at the time) lowest bet, I am sure to be the furthest out unless there was an even lower bid or a way to high bid.

I am happy with my method though. Given my lack of knowledge in yearly price fluctuations and such, taking an outlier position was a reasonable strategy. If the price had missed the band of predictions I had a 50% chance of winning a bottle of champagne. I recommend keeping a keen eye of the interests of the predictor.

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 10:28:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Footnote (none / 1)

As footnote, oil seems indeed bent on passing the 100$ mark, on the first day of trading of the new year: 99.19, up 3.3% right now, still many hours of US-time trading to go.

Pierre

by Pierre on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 12:33:18 PM EST

Re: Countdown to $100 oil (4.00 / 2)

Wow, not bad for a total guess ... And since it's now $100, I am really even more right somehow probably... ;)

Actually, I kinda never want to see champagne again, so I'm not heartbroken.

Did anyone guess $100?

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."

by poemless on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:27:31 PM EST

Countdown to $100 oil and the winner is... (none / 0)

Darn, I missed it by THIS much! (;

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. --Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sat Jan 12th, 2008 at 05:05:12 PM EST

Countdown to $100 oil (55) - and the winner is... | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]