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Nevada Updated: Clinton Wins

by Drew J Jones Fri Jan 18th, 2008 at 09:38:23 PM EST

Update: Exit polls show Clinton win. Clinton up 50-48.

Update #2: NBC News calls it for Clinton. Scores as of now:

(1) Clinton - 50.18%

(2) Obama - 45.16%

(3) Edwards - 4.39%

South Carolina GOP later.


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Do I sense a certain ennui with politics - given that no one has responded yet?  At least we won't have a Diebold effect here unless the gaming machines in Vegas are offering better odds to those who stay away from the Caucuses to allow the lowly Culinary workers dominate the Vegas caucuses in full view of their leaders and bosses.

I have only the polls to go on and trends there would indicate something like

  1. Clinton 40%
  2. Obama 35%
  3. Edwards 15%

But it really all depends on who shows up

PS what's the latest on the NH recount - we need a Diary!!!!!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 07:24:55 AM EST
Forgot to add:
Romney 25%
McCain 20%
Huckabee 15%
Giulliani 10%
Thompson 10%
Paul 8%

How much more spread can you get?  But this win would make Romney a real contender and damage McCain's front runner status keeping Huckabee in the hunt...

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 08:46:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well they've announced Romney ass the winner, with 1% of the votes in!

what madness is this?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exit polls.  Romney took 43% of the male vote and a whopping 51% of the female vote.  That's probably too overwhelming to be proven wrong later.

He won every age group, too.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:41:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And that's without kos ;-))

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh.  I'm astonished at Ron Paul's showing in the exit polls, too.  We'll see if he holds on.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:45:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Haven't seen anything about Paul. All kos has got is the Romney announcement.

I admit Paul's supporters annoy me by hogging the Guardian CiF comments. Almost any subject will be an excuse for one of his sock-puppets t ocome in and start telling us how the world would be perfect if only ron Paul were President.

Mind you, given the Guardian's British liberal (-ish) credentials it's quite pathetic the way the rightwing neocon/neoliberal axis shout down any discussion about the USA.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:51:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, and I found the post-NH rally Paul held quite amusing when the crowd burst into shouts of "End the Fed!"  But, hey, I'll be glad to see him beat McCain and Huckabee.

Giuliani, by the way, is tied for last on the results page with Duncan Hunter.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How long before 9ui11iani throws in the towel ? I must admit that whenever I see a picture of him I smell sulphur and can hear jackboots marching.

As a Brit pol. once said "there is something of the night about him"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 02:05:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very soon, I think.  If he loses Florida, as I think he may well, he's finished.  His campaign is out of money, to the point that he's, literally, not paying his staff -- a sure sign of weakness and lack of commitment (and a really shitty thing to do) for a guy who could easily pay their salaries with his own wealth.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 02:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no ennui from me, but I've been out of the loop for two days and have spent the entire day catching up.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, in re: NH recount.  Black Box has the rundown on the funny things going on there, but it doesn't look like it's grabbing press attention.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you summarise in the open thread ? You might get more atteniton there.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, I think Mig and I will do a diary once we have the final story.  The unfortunate thing is that, given the chain-of-custody issue -- and there have been some very suspicious bits on that with the ballot boxes -- we're left with a pile of evidence that won't grab sufficient attention to get anything done.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 01:56:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(1) Clinton - 39%

(2) Obama - 37%

(3) Edwards - 16%

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 07:34:57 AM EST
Damn !!! 4% for Edwards, what's wrong with everybody ?

Wil he stay in the race if he tanks at this rate ? He must need at least one state in Feb or I can't see how he can carry on.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 04:50:44 PM EST
I'm afraid Edwards is finished, his support having bled to Obama according to reports on the ground in Nevada.  He didn't even top 4%, which is a catastrophic showing for him in a working-class, union-heavy state.  Obama, as it is, is barely hanging on, because Hillary will now have serious momentum.  Obama's got to win SC, which may very well tighten, or Hillary's won the nomination.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 05:02:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Edwards cannot top 15% in a caucus state, he's done.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 04:24:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The funny thing is, even though Clinton won this caucus, and thus gained 12 delegates, Obama actually gained 13 delegates because he won the whole rest of the state. So...who won? In delegates, Obama did. And who is out of the race? We will know more after Feb. 5th, I think.

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 03:56:51 AM EST
whataboutbob:
Obama actually gained 13 delegates

Thats not sure, at least not according to the following quote I saw on dKos. I find it more and more mystifying how the US election system could be called democratic.

Clinton and Obama Win Nevada

Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19." Jill Derby, Chair of the Nevada State Party, also spoke out on delegates as the results came in. She emphasized that national delegate counts are "based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same," when in fact they could change at the convention. Derby added a disconcerting line to hammer the point home: "We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support."

Translation: If this thing is close, "we" party insiders will "choose" for the rest of the state.

At least the sparring over delegates has forced out a rare political confession, helping expose the distortions of these party rules. And the reforms present themselves: Require binding votes, absentee voting rights, proportional measurement and a true popular vote.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 04:31:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Its all rather arcane, but as it stands it is:

Obama .... 38 delegates so far?
Clinton .... 36 delegates so far?
Edwards .. 18 delegates so far

(Not including the "super delegates, another arcane thing)

And check this Matt Stoller article out:

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3329

"Did Obama lose Nevada by his Reagan remarks?", in which he thinks those who se themselves as "very liberal" have swung heavily away from Obama.


"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 07:42:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think the Reagan thing played a role.  That was more of a blogosphere obsession, and it was less so when Clinton was discovered to have made almost exactly the same comment.

The count on superdelegates:

Hillary 210
Obama 123
Edwards 52

So Clinton has a bit below 200, Obama a bit below 100, and Edwards 37.  My sense is that we won't see any real movement among them until Super Tuesday, with the winner of California taking the most.  I'd guess that Cal is sitting roughly at 48-35 right now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 11:50:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
CNN.com: Nevada
Romney   51%
Paul     14%
McCain   13%
Huckabee  8%
Thompson  8%
Guiliani  4%
Hunter    2%

South Carolina
McCain   33%
Huckabee 30%
Thompson 16%
Romney   15%
Paul      4%
Giuliani  2%



We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 05:17:09 AM EST
Not good for the Dems.  St McCain vs Mittster?

And is it just me or has Ron Paul defeated Rudy Giuliani in almost every contest so far?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 11:29:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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