So, will oil hang around the psychologically significant figure of $100 ? Or will the continued descent of the dollar keep things moving ? I'd guess the latter very strongly. It could just as easily be $150 by mid-summer as it could be lurking at $120.

But the question is, now you've proved your point is there any reason to have a series of quickly achievable prices, eg $200. Or would it be more interesting to set the bar higher as a statement of intent at how badly things will deteriorate in politically significant timescales ? In which case $500 might be more useful.


keep to the Fen Causeway

I saw this from WSJ and came right to ET to clap (just joking):

Crude-oil prices surged more than $3 a barrel and appeared to touch $100 in New York Mercantile Exchange trading for the first time, driven by weakness in the dollar and concerns about tight supplies. A Nymex spokeswoman said one $100 floor trade was legitimate, though that has not yet been confirmed. Stocks, already lower, fell even more, with the Dow recently down about 200 points.

IMHO, the countdown diaries have made their statement. CO2 ppm levels may be appropriate for another type of countdown diary to doomsday or we could try something positive -- a goal to strive for (% of installed renewable capacity) but maybe the rate of change is not that fast there.

Staying with the oil theme, the $200 mark is probably appropriate although it will take some time to get there as increases in oil production (however temporary) and the economic slowdown will probably bring prices down in the next couple of years.

Orthodoxy is not a religion.

after your earlier diary one looking ahead to 2008, I matched the list of mega oil projects that you linked to at the page the Oil Drum Europe people made on Wikipedia, and matched that on a spreadsheet I made using the US DOE numbers on 1980-2007 oil production.  I used the consumption trend of the past two years (Post Katrina and the the rise in oil prices) and matched it to to the production increases from those oil projects. Then I ran the numbers out to 2013 when the "wall of oil" destine for the world markets dries up.

It's interesting.

Brazil becomes a major oil exporter by 2013, exporting 2.88 mbd more than currently.  Canada puts an additional 2.65 mbd on the market. At the same time US consumption is down  by over a million barrels a day if 05-07 consumption trends hold.  This is true for most of the OECD, but consumption is way up in underdeveloped countries.  China needs to find another 3.43 mbd on the world market, and India another 0.22 mbd on the world market.

Huge consumption increases in the OPEC states.  The 1 mbd decrease in the US, is matched by a similiar increase in Saudi Arabia.  

And all off this assumes that current oil field production remains constant, when its more likely that fields like Ghawar in Saudi and Cantarell in Mexico are in terminal decline.

We matter more than pounds and pence/ Your economic theory makes no sense "We work the Black Seam"-Sting

Oil prices... have quadrupled since 2003.

Mission Accomplished.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

We're saved. I'm so happy.

Dollar fear sparks rush to oil and gold

The $100-a-barrel level was reached as the result of a single trade by two independent traders - known as locals - at the Nymex floor, industry sources said.

Before the trade, oil prices were at $99.53 a barrel. In spite of the controversy about the single trade, crude oil closed up $3.64 at $99.62 a barrel in New York. The White House said President George W. Bush would not tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and was focused on other ways to boost US oil supplies.

Last week was very strange with Brent above 96, Tapis above 102, Lousiana above 100 and the WTI staying put. Yesterday when I checked the prices early in the morning gold was trading way north of 570 €/oz, I knew we were in for something. I had to dive into work and only got the news late night by the TV.

Today gold is above 580 €/oz and the USDX is sinking again below 76. Above all we are witnessing a run away from paper currencies and that's why we haven't yet the dollar stampede that you also forecast. But eventually all those dollar bonds and bills will become so light that the wind itself will blow them away.

Vencit omnia veritas.

The way I see the present series, it neatly documents the last 30 months and introduces peak oil to the audience, which seems to be the real intention of the series.

Now that peak oil has been introduced, what would be the objective of the new series? Just waiting for the next psychological price barrier to be breached doesn't seem enough.

I would concentrate on the Anglo Disease/Greenspan series, especially because if things go pear-shaped during 2008 it would be good to have a series which blames the neoliberal consensus for the disaster before it is acknowledged to be a disaster, predicts broadly what will happen and presents an alternative economic narrative.

Just my $0.03

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo