My prediction is Edwards, Obama, Clinton (but I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama place third).

And the world will live as one

1. Romney
   
2. Huckabee

I didn't follow American presidential campaign and have no clear opinion even as outsider. Just noticed Hillary was flanked by Bill and daughter from one side and from the other was no one but Madlein Albright!

Do Democrats know how hated Albright around the world, surely not less than any Republican foreign policy maker?

Alas, he won't run.

One thing I'll say for Obama, as an aside: I think what Obama got right, win or lose, that the eventual nominee should note was tying together an infinitely superior general election theme.  Edwards's theme is great for primaries, but I think Jonathon Alter of Newsweek made a fair point when he said that you have to be careful with the confrontational style.  Played correctly, it's solid.  But, played incorrectly, it will turn people off, allow your opponent to attack from a defensive position (or, worse, belittle you the way Cheney was able to do to Edwards in 2004) and destroy your campaign.  Edwards can deliver such a theme convincingly, and I hope that if he does win tonight he'll have taken note.

The reason I don't see Edwards winning is that I think he's going to pay a price -- a small one but a real one, unfortunately -- for a certain depression factor.  I think there will be a few people who, despite leaning towards Edwards, go for Obama working with the assumption that Edwards won't beat Hillary.

It's a dumb assumption to work with, in my view, because people should, to put it in as cheesy a way as possible, "vote their hopes, not their fears," but that's the major problem I see for Edwards.  And, as it hasn't really been discussed directly in the non-blogosphere arenas, it hasn't really been addressed directly.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I see him losing a bit for that, and a bit lost is a catastrophic loss for Edwards, I'm afraid.  (That's one point on which I think the press got it right without needing to manufacture a gain or loss of momentum.)  His campaign is sort of like the NFL teams who have to pray for a certain combination of wins and losses from others in order to make the playoffs and have a shot at the Super Bowl.  Or, for the one-game analogy, it's a bit like hoping for the (one-win) Miami Dolphins to beat the (undefeated) New England Patriots.  There was a chance, and it had its exciting moments, but (hope though we Dolphins fans did) it just didn't happen.

I believe beating Hillary is critical to the next four years.  Again, that's not because I think she'd be a bad president or because I hate her or because she's a woman.  Hillary is incredibly intelligent, hard-working and probably tougher than I could ever dream of being.  I really do admire her for putting up with all of the horseshit -- from the Republicans, from the press, from her white-trash husband, all of it -- she's had to put up with for so long.  But I believe we've got to beat her, because she'd be mediocre (as Clintons tend to be) at a time that really and truly calls for a candidate with the potential for transformational leadership.  Any of the others in the top five, with the possible exception of Richardson, have that potential.  All that said, I must admit I, too, am fearful that Hillary would bury Edwards.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

Interesting things to look for:

1.  Turn-out.  Heavy turn-out is required for Obama to win.  (It won't happen, but you can look for it.  ;0

2.  Edwards MUST do well in the early returns.  The rural precincts will be reporting first and he needs to really do well to overcome Clinton's advantage in the I-80 corridor where the big cities are.

3.  If a surprise comes it will be noted in these early returns.

4.  Look for turn-out numbers in Des Moines (Polk County,) Cedar Rapids (Lynn County,) and especially Iowa City (Johnson County) and Ames (Story County.)  The last two are home to the Univ. of Iowa and Iowa State, repectively, and for Obama to win there must be an unusually large turn-out.  

5.  Des Moines is the state capital and center of the Establishment Dem organization.  If Clinton loses this area she is scrod.

6.  On the GOP side look for the returns from Mason City (Cerro Gordo County - IIRC,) Sioux City (Woodbury County), and Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie County.)  If Huckabee wins here he wins big.

7.  Huck-a-duck-a-bumblebee also needs to do well in the early returns.

8.  The number 3 on the GOP side should emerge early.

My read of this is that the undecideds are breaking, and they're breaking for the Darkie McCrackhead and his Trial-Lawyer life partner, as I expected.  Reports on the ground that I've read support that, but make of it what you will.

It's going to be an interesting night.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

Ron Paul 10%

Ron Paul is tied with McCain and Thompson.  I'd been expecting a big surprise from somewhere, and John McCain being buried by Ron Paul may be it.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

They would just have rigged the election more had it been Dean.

I can't quite put a finger on it, exactly, but I find myself increasingly disliking Obama.

I've been cheerfully posting Obama hit comments over at the Big Orange for a couple of months now.

Obama has always creeped me out. He just seems like all PR, all the time, and then once in a while the mask slips and you can see a quiet seething patrician contempt for the little people.

He's happy to farm the little people with his charm, and he's happy to consider condescending to help them once in a while. But he doesn't really see them as equals, and I suspect he's only interested in their lives to the extent that they can help him fulfill his ambitions and vision for himself.

Edwards seems to actually care in a genuine and connected way. I suppose that could just be an act too, but I have a much harder time seeing Edwards as a faker, if only because he'll have burnt a lot of bridges and made a lot of enemies in this campaign.

The media of course was very against Dean as soon as he opened his mouth about media regulation, big surprise.  Edwards has done the same this time around but knew going in what the effect would be.  Edwards is much savvier than Dean and has a far greater grasp of long-term strategy in a political situation, his trial lawyer experience is huge here.  Remember that Edwards is a guy who won a senate seat in North Carolina as a DEMOCRAT in the late 90's.  That is some miraculous stuff.

In terms of "aggression" or "rhetoric" or primary/general election differences it's all b/s.  Nothing said the past two months will be remembered come August/September.  How one wins the primary is not especially important in a general election when you have a party apparatus behind you going against an "enemy" who is genuinely not on your side.  

Tonight is really fascinating because there are 8 or 9 people who might be the next US President and that picture will clarify greatly after all is done in Iowa.  Even the mere thought of someone other than Bush being the President is inspiring.

I also see major potential for party re-alignments depending on how things shake out.  The Republican Party is dangerously close to a split on coalition lines.   I also think that if the GOP genuinely splits the Democrats will be right behind them.  The political realignment will look as such:

Right Wing/Christian Party (15% base)
Libertarian Party (10%)
Centrist Party (left wing Repubs and "moderate" Democrats - 30%)
Corporatist Party (Romney/Giuliani's/Lieberman's - 25%)
Progressive/Green Party - (left wing Dems and Greens/Nader/Kucinich types 15%)

That represents a clearer view of the actual political brea