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by Jerome a Paris The FT really overdoes it this morning with its main headline, as shown to the right, and the accompanying article.A gas "grab"? Are they sending the Russian military to invade Nigeria and take over Nigerian gas fields? Are they starting a naval blockade to prevent Nigeria from exporting its gas? Worse, apparently:
A senior Nigerian oil industry official, who declined to be named, said the company was offering to invest in energy infrastructure in return for the chance to develop some of the biggest gas deposits in the world. Wow. Investing? Now that's scary! So what should we do exactly? How can we force Russia not to control the gas on their territory, and not to invest in other countries? Should we invade them preemptively? Should we stop selling them armor-plated Mercedes cars? Not give visas to Russian leaders' girlfriends? What exactly is the point of these headlines? Given that the Russians will just either shrug and ignore it, or ratchet up their own anti-Western rhetoric, what's the real purpose? If gas dependency were the real issue, the logical suggestion would be to reduce our gas consumption (our only real weapon against Russia), but this is obviously not on the table. So the goal must be domestic, and it must be political. And despite my best efforts, I can only think of two (related) things: fearmongering and distraction. Fearmongering because that helps sell authoritarian policies, increase military budgets, and rally the populace against an external threat; Distraction because it avoids a serious discussion of what a sane energy policy would be (hint: focused on demand reduction rather than supply increase, and on increased regulation rather than market liberalisation, to promote renewables and non carbon spewing technologies rather than banker- and trader-preferred gas-fired plants), and, as above, it puts the blame for increasing high energy prices on (easily identifable) evil foreigners rather than on domestic ideology. But what do I know? (there's more. A detailed deconstruction of the article below. )
Gazprom’s efforts are likely to cause concern among European governments anxious about their dependence on Russia for a quarter of gas imports. The country’s readiness to cut off supplies has alarmed EU governments. Gazprom has cut off supplies to countries it was subsidizing and which did not want to pay the market price. Could we have the same standard applied to our domestic gas companies when they cut gas (or electricity for that matter) to poor families who no longer pay? But it's become common wisdom that Gazprom cuts supplies to various European countries for no good reason, just to exercise its "energy weapon." That story has now taken hold, is repeated by all pundits and politicians, and I fear nothing will change it now (except maybe Ukraine turning fascist and Russia somehow "enjoying" some kind of street revolution with a "reformer" getting into the Kremlin, and offering Russia's gas reserves to Western companies. Then we might suddenly expect the Russianview point on gas transit to prevail, as it would become a preoccupation of the Western companies. Sigh....) But back to our African story...
“What Gazprom is proposing is mind-boggling,” the Nigerian oil official told the Financial Times. “They’re talking tough and saying the west has taken advantage of us in the last 50 years and they’re offering us a better deal ... They are ready to beat the Chinese, the Indians and the Americans.” Oh... "offering a better deal" what insufferable aggression. Being willing to pay more money to gain a deal? That's, like, war! It's unseemly that savages from outside the West would dare do that - and against our companies! What's the point of propping up these regimes if they can be swayed by more money from elsewhere? And saying that the West has taken advantage of Africa over the past 50 years? Again, unprovoked aggression that cannot be left unpunished!
Any move by Gazprom to establish itself in Nigeria, long dominated by companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron and ExxonMobil, would reinforce a global trend of state-backed energy companies challenging western rivals. So it's a global trend - but it becomes, in the case of Gazprom, as "gas grab"... They are not even buying strategic stakes in our core industries like the Chinese, Middle-Easter and and Singaporean funds that have bought bank stakes recently (but they're saving our ass there, so we can't really complain), but we just have to say how evil it is for them to do it. It's just that Russian are, ..., I don't know, ... so matter of fact about the fact that this is political. At least the Chinese and Dubai sheiks are kind enough to pretend that their investment are only business decisions. If I may say, the Russians are disturbingly French in that way. Intolerable!
The Nigerian official said Gazprom executives had visited Abuja in mid-December with a range of proposals to revamp the underperforming gas sector. Pfah. Only Western companies have technical expertise and financial resources. The gall to pretend that they have the same! Quick, a good smackdown!
The Nigerian official said Gazprom was also competing with international banks to take over funding the government’s share of ventures with western oil companies, hoping to win gas exploration blocks and approvals to build LNG plants in return. Aha. Not only they compete with the oil companies, but also with the banks. No wonder the FT is pissed off. The impudence of Gazprom is just breathtaking. Don't they know how these things are done? Now, I'd like to finish with what actually are the first two paragraphs of the article, the "lede", in journalistic parlance:
Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy group, is seeking to win access to vast energy reserves in Nigeria in a move that will heighten concerns among western governments over its increasingly powerful grip on gas supplies to Europe. Now Nigeria is "blessed with massive reserves of associated and non-associated gas, estimated in excess of 160 trillion cubic feet. It is ranked amongst the 10th largest in terms of proven natural gas reserves in the world. That may sound like a lot, but it's less than a tenth of what Russia alone has, and just a couple percent of world reserves. And, more to the point, most of current production is flared right now (which caused considerable environmental damage) because there is no infrastructure to export it. There is a single large LNG project working for now, exporting about 28 billion cubic meters of gas per annum, most of it to Europe and plans to probably double this in the coming decade. Another point to note is that Nigerian gas can only be exported via LNG (there is no pipeline to Europe, although there have been (unrealistic) talks of one via Algeria). Buidling LNG infrasturcture is incredibly complicated, is something that Gazprom is currently unable to manage on its own, and happens only when credible buyers get involved and agree to buy the LNG for a very long time under a pre-agreed price formula. Which means that, for buyers, it is irrelevant who the investor is, provided that it is able to source the gas and build the plant - the investment will be driven by contracts under Western law, and the only couuntry that can interfere with production is Nigeria itself, not the home country of the project investors. More to the point, if Gazprom, for instance, decided to breach an export contract form Nigeria, European buyers could go to the Nigerian government to strip Gazprom of its ownership rights should it stop production (which would piss off the Nigerian government anyway), or they could go to Western courts to seize LNG ships should Gazprom try to send them elsewehre than their contractual destination in Europe. As we bemoan the lack of investment in upstream sector, it is ironic to complain about Gazprom's desire to invest in one of the toughest countries around, given that most of the production would go, for practical reasons, to Europe or the US, and would not really be under Russian control, as such, anyway. Which brings us back to scaremongering and distraction... or incompetent journalism.
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Russia scaremongering cranked up again | 51 comments (51 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Russia scaremongering cranked up again | 51 comments (51 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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