US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread

by DoDo Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:42:55 AM EST

So both of the main US parties, Democrats and Republicans, held their primaries for the Presidential election today. With record turnout of around 70%, fit for an European parliamentary election.

With the normal Open Thread full of comments, come here & discuss results here as they come in!

Update [2008-1-9 5:42:55 by DoDo]: Near-final results:

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics

Democrats 22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged

Candidate Vote % Delegates
Hillary Rodham Clinton 110,550 39.2% Delegates
determined
after all
votes
are in.
Barack Obama 102,883 36.4
John Edwards 47,803 16.9
Bill Richardson 12,987 4.6
Dennis J. Kucinich 3,845 1.4
Others 3,058 1.1
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 616 0.2
Mike Gravel 397 0.1
Christopher J. Dodd 195 0.1
96% reporting | Updated 5:23 AM ET

Republicans 12 pledged delegates

Candidate Vote % Delegates
John McCain 86,802 37.2% Delegates
determined
after all
votes
are in.
Mitt Romney 73,806 31.6
Mike Huckabee 26,035 11.2
Rudolph W. Giuliani 20,054 8.6
Ron Paul 17,831 7.6
Others 4,783 2.0
Fred D. Thompson 2,808 1.2
Duncan Hunter 1,195 0.5
Tom Tancredo 66 0.0
96% reporting | Updated 5:23 AM ET

That's 282,334 primary voters for Democrats and 233,380 for Republicans. Very high for a primary, but still below a Presidential election: contrast with 340,511 for Kerry/Edwards vs. 331,237 for Bush/Cheney vs. 4,479 for Nader/Camejo vs. 1,511 for Other in the elections 2004. That was a 70.5% turnout (as a percent of all eligible voters, not just registered!).

US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread | 160 comments (160 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I read on dKos that exit poll leaks say Obama lead only 4%, but that's very unreliable due to unexpectedly high turnout and still unfinished voting. Reps: McCain.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:04:49 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

What is the largest turnout ever in a US presidential election?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:06:42 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I understood that 200,000 was the record (in 2000) for the NH primary.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:14:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

No, I mean for the General Election.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Voter Participation in Presidential Elections, 1824-1928 -- Infoplease.com

Year % Voter participation
1824 26.9%
1828 57.6
1832 55.4
1836 57.8
1840 80.2
1844 78.9
1848 72.7
1852 69.6
1856 78.9
1860 81.2
1864¹ 73.8
1868 78.1
1872² 71.3
1876 81.8
1880 79.4
1884 77.5
1888 79.3
1892 74.7
1896 79.3
1900 73.2
1904 65.2
1908 65.4
1912 58.8
1916 61.6
1920 49.2
1924 48.9
1928 56.9

Participation in Elections for President and U.S. Representatives, 1930-2006 -- Infoplease.com

Participation in Elections for President and U.S. Representatives, 1930-2006 (in thousands)
Year Population
of voting age Percent of
voting-age
population
that voted
for President Percent of
voting-age
population
that voted for
U.S. Representative
1930 73,623 n.a. 33.7
1932 75,768 52.5 49.7
1934 77,997 n.a. 41.4
1936 80,174 56.9 53.5
1938 82,354 n.a. 44.0
1940 84,728 58.9 55.4
1942 86,465 n.a. 32.5
1944 85,654 56.0 52.7
1946 92,659 n.a. 37.1
1948 95,573 51.1 48.1
1950 98,134 n.a. 41.1
1952 99,929 61.6 57.6
1954 102,075 n.a. 41.7
1956 104,515 59.3 55.9
1958 106,447 n.a. 43.0
1960 109,672 62.8 58.5
1962 112,952 n.a. 45.4
1964 114,090 61.9 57.8
1966 116,638 n.a. 45.4
1968 120,285 60.9 55.1
1970 124,498 n.a. 43.5
1972 140,777 55.2 50.7
1974 146,338 n.a. 35.9
1976 152,308 53.5 48.9
1978 158,369 n.a. 34.9
1980 163,945 52.8 47.6
1982 169,643 n.a. 38.0
1984 173,995 53.3 47.8
1986 177,922 n.a. 33.5
1988 181,956 50.3 44.9
1990 185,812 n.a. 33.1
1992 189,524 55.1 50.8
1994 193,650 n.a. 36.6
1996 196,928 49.0 45.8
1998 198,228 n.a. 32.9
2000 205,815 50.2 46.3
2002 215,077 n.a. 34.3
2004 220,377 55.5 51.4
2006 225,662 n.a. 35.7
n.a. = not applicable Notes: Prior to 1960, excludes Alaska and Hawaii. Population 18 years and over beginning 1972; prior to 1972, population 21 years and over except population 18 years and over in Georgia since 1944, 18 years and over in Kentucky since 1956, 19 years and over in Alaska since 1959, and 20 years and over in Hawaii since 1959. Beginning in 1972, includes votes cast for the delegate in the District of Columbia. See also National Voter Turnout in Federal Elections: 1960-2006.

Seems 1876 was the peak with 81.6% (the famed Tilden-Hayes election where the electoral college was decisive).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:28:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Shouldn't you be memorising railway facts/procedures? ;-)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:31:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I actually finished today -- er yesterday -- afternoon, should start review tomorrow :-)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:33:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Interesting live radio commenting on this site

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:36:41 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

6% reporting, Clinton & Obama tied at 36%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:38:07 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Obama    41%
Clinton    37%
Edwards    15%

McCain    36%
Romney    30%
Huckabee    13%
Paul    11%
Giuliani    9%

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:38:23 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Actual first results:

NHPrimary.com

STATEWIDE RESULTS
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
CLINTON: 3 GIULIANI: 1
EDWARDS: 3 HUCKABEE: 5
GRAVEL: 0 HUNTER: 0
KUCINICH: 0 McCAIN: 10
OBAMA: 16 PAUL: 4
RICHARDSON: 1 ROMNEY: 3
OTHER: 0 THOMPSON: 0
OTHER: 0

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:43:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Those are only the results of that small village.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

NBC has voter totals, but can't calculate percents of percents...

New Hampshire - State Results- msnbc.com

Candidate Votes % of votes Delegates won Projected winner
Hillary Clinton 13,011 38% 0
Barack Obama 12,150 36% 0
John Edwards 5,655 17% 0
Bill Richardson 1,436 4% 0
Dennis Kucinich 639 2% 0
Joe Biden 58 0% 0
Mike Gravel 48 0% 0
Chris Dodd 28 0% 0

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Meanwhile, from the site that shall not be named, Clinton's lead over Obama widened to 38.41% vs. 35.87%. Edwards at 17.67%, Richardson (who predicted this?) at a higher-than-expected 4.24%. Kucinich 1.89%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Still early, but trends seem clear -- starts to look like a Hillary blowout. Now 40% to 35%.

The Machine is back.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Could be. It's certainly looking like she's going to do much better than the polls indicated.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:28:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics

22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged

Candidate Vote %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 17,008 40.1%
Barack Obama 14,959 35.3%
John Edwards 7,077 16.7%
Bill Richardson 1,832 4.3%
Dennis J. Kucinich 803 1.9%
Others 536 1.3%
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 75 0.2%
Mike Gravel 58 0.1%
Christopher J. Dodd 35 0.1%
14% reporting | Updated 8:26 PM ET

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:30:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Note poor Mike Gravel got less votes than a dropped-out candidate (who presumably got paper ballots?) How many of the "Other" could be Al Gore?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:32:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I'm going to skip this, I think. It's going to be a miracle if Obama doesn't win by a convincing lead, and it looks as if both Clinton and Edwards are toast at this point.

Hillary may get some push-back if she's less than ten points behind, but that's probably the most exciting thing that could happen tonight.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:40:10 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

That miralce you speak about seems to have happened.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:47:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Yep. Looks like I was very, very wrong. My guess is the Obama student machine didn't have so much to work with here, so Clinton monopolised the wrinkly vote.

Plus, some people just don't seem to like Obama, for some reason.

dKos people are speculating that the Crying Moment may have given Clinton the underdog sympathy vote which Obama had been running with.

Anyway - I'm still not staying up for the denouement.

Results watchers will probably want to take a look here.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:40:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Don't. Link. There.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Wow, that is surprising. Was there a single indication for Clinton's comeback? The media noise was all about "embracing another loss". Or is there some Intelligent Design of emotion swings? Sympathies or dislikes to any of Dem candidates are pretty vulnerable to mass manipulation. In Iowa, it is Clinton without substance, in NH - Obama?! Either way it could be true!

My free guess is that Edwards supporters got warm for Clinton on the last day. It seems the largest statistical swing is among women. Is this an election for the most responsible job on Earth, or an American Super-idol contest.

by das monde on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 01:50:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Nah, the effect you have to account for is the extreme high voter turnout: it was the NON-voters who made the difference. I assume they include a lot of people who aren't political junkies and barely know the candidates, and since the MSM was al about Obama vs. Hillary, made a choice from that offer.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:34:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Iowa had very high turnout as well... And by the way, in either case the difference was a few percents.

Can we say that NH voters did not dare (or wish) to wreck the Clintons? Many people woke up with the following news from the first village:

IN THE tiny northern New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, which by tradition votes at midnight several hours before the primary and then immediately closes its polls once all 17 people have voted, Barack Obama blitzed the poll, gaining seven votes in the Democratic primary.
Senator John Edwards got two, Governor Bill Richardson one and Hillary Clinton got no votes.
In the Republican primary, John McCain got four votes, Mitt Romney two and Rudy Giuliani one.

I still see Edwards as a loser of the sympathy swings.

by das monde on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:29:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

das monde:

It seems the largest statistical swing is among women. Is this an election for the most responsible job on Earth, or an American Super-idol contest.

Don't let any feminists see you say that ;-)

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I am mostly interested in the swing between the last polls and actual voting. Would feminists like me to look away from that?!

by das monde on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:04:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

No, the problem is the suggestion that women swinging for Clinton is an indication that this is a "superidol contest". You could argue the same about the youth vote breaking for Obama, or about the black vote breaking for Obama. If this is a popularity contest, it's not necessarily women's fault.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:10:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

8% reporting, clinton 38%, obama 36%, edwards 17%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:43:05 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

9% reporting, 37% mccain, 28% romney, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:48:50 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

What source do you use?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Melanchthon:

nteresting live radio commenting on this site

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:56:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Ah.

I was hoping for some official source, which I haven't found. The best so far is a site that seems pro-McCain so I won't link it.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:07:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

here and here, too

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Notice it's not 9% of the voters, but 9% of the precincts, those which close early (i.e. the small ones)

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:58:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Do the smaller more rural precincts have an older voter base, and so tend to be more pro-Clinton?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I don't know, but the difference is growing. At 10.6% counted, it's 38.13% to 35.95%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:06:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

at 12%
clinton 13,572 38%
Obama 12,913 36%
Edwards 5,990 17%
Richardson 1,554 5%
Kuchinch 746 2%
Gravel 56

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Glenn Greenwald - Political Blogs and Opinions - Salon

Here, Howard Kurtz notes the long roster of conservative pundits currently praising Barack Obama. Does anyone actually think that this -- or the media's love affair with Obama -- will continue in any way, shape or form when/if Hillary is out of the way and Obama is the nominee?
The right-wing/media partnership is currently engaged in its catty sadism rituals over Hillary's possible demise. That's the two-headed beast that was single-handedly responsible for milking the sex scandals into Bill Clinton's impeachment against the wishes of most of the country -- and it was the same beast that enabled so many of the abuses of the last seven years -- and they're now finally able to celebrate gleefully what they think is their long-elusive victory over the Clintons. So that -- for now -- is where their attention is directed, and they feel some affection and respect for Obama for having achieved what they couldn't (not only for that reason, but that's a big part of it).
But that is a two-headed apparatus that doesn't go anywhere -- ever. It just changes targets. At this time during the 2004 election cycle, all of their bile was directed at Howard Dean. But it had no trouble switching seamlessly to John Kerry once Dean was vanquished. Anyone harboring some affection for they're doing now because their target happens to be Hillary ought to be aware that it can and will switch targets, while being driven by the same people and the same tactics, without much trouble at all. That right-wing/establishment-media edifice is an incomparably destructive alliance -- and their tactics incomparably toxic -- no matter who their current target happens to be.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:49:28 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

McCain projected to win by MSNBC already.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:12:06 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Radio is saying there is tremendous interest in voting and the campaign.

Some precincts are reporting 80% turnout.

Independents are breaking Democrat (and for Obama) but the Independents voting Republican are going McCain.

So far, then, the CW is proving correct.

This is going to be an interesting night.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:13:27 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

12% reporting: McCain 37%, Romney 28%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:15:46 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Bye, Mitt.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:18:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

The only intereting thing is how Rudy Mussolini will fare: behind Ron Paul or before.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

You have a better view of the results with maps here

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:20:12 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

14% reporting, Clinton 40%, Obama 35%, Edwards 17%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:29:34 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Some of the local reporters are saying the small Clinton lead is not necessarily good for her. They don't know what areas the results are coming from.

Clinton 40
0bama 36
Edwards 17

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:31:12 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Well, if you look at the number of voters, it's still a small part of them.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:35:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Look at the NYT map. Her problem is that she's probably got to do pretty well in Nashua, Manchester and Concord.

We've only got 15% of precincts in, and I think the percentage of precincts right now is larger than the percentage of votes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:35:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

That's what I'm hearing over the radio. She needs to do really well in those areas to have a shot.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:40:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Well, it appears so. At 19%, Hillary's lead shrunk noticeably, 39.53% to 35.94%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

She's holding about a 2,000-vote lead, so the percentages will shrink a bit.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Scratch that. A bit shy of a 4,000-vote lead.

Clinton 40
Obama 34

Wow. She may just pull it off.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:54:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

If 400,000 voted in the Dem primary, we are still at about 20% of voters (not precints).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:00:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I suspect the gap will close, but it's going to be a hell of a lot closer than I thought. Credit to the Clintons.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:03:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

What is interesting is the AP still hasn't called the Dem side of the election even with 31% of the precincts reporting. That's very unusual.

Everybody is asking, "OK. Now where does McCain go?" And they answer, "Who knows?" So, yes, McCain has won New Hampshire but there isn't a clear path for him winning in either Michigan (Romney has the edge) or South Carolina (Huckabee with the edge.)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:12:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

It is unusual. I'm surprised. Are there certain areas we're waiting on?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Belknap, Sullivan counties.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:15:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Rather strong differences between counties: one has 45:32 for Clinton, another 46:30 for Obama.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:18:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Just seen a reporter on one of the channels say they've been speaking to someone in the Clinton camp, and they were saying that they were a couple of days campaigning away from being certain of winning.

Rare to have someone from inside a campaign say something like that unless they think theyve lost.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

It's still widening. Now at 34%, 3,400 even without the Kucinich-favouring computer glitch.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I don't think Obama's going to pull it out. I'm a little surprised Edwards didn't do better, too.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:16:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

To the contrary, at this level of participation, one can be happy that a candidate ignored by the media achieves even so much.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:22:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

True, but I expected him to break into the 20s.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:23:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I suspect he would have had turnout been as expected.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:48:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Independents are the key in New Hampshire and they tend to go to established candidates. That could be the stronger than expected Clinton support is coming from.

News from the Obama HQ is some areas where they expect to do very well have 0% reporting. That intimates the voting was heavy and the precincts have to take the time to count the ballots.

Maybe. We'll find out in a few hours.

Exciting tho', huh?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:30:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Very exciting. Where'd that news from Obama HQ come from? Radio?

The big story is that late-deciders split between Obama and Clinton. That was certainly better than expected.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

WNYC -- New York City Public Radio

Just heard "Some of Obama's strongholds have yet to report"

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

That might explain it, but I doubt the margin is going to come in that strong.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:42:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

OK, scrag that.

Exit polls are saying Independents went Obama. It's the woman vote that broke strong for Clinton (47%)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:38:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

37% and 3021 on CNN

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Yeah, he's moved up a bit. Whatever county it is that Concord is in has gone to him now. It was for Clinton before.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Merrimack, 40:36 at 34% counted wne overall was 37%. But Belknap county will decide it all: presently, 0% counted!

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:24:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Maybe no one lives there...

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:26:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Now 6% counted, and almost dead-even: Obama 32% Clinton 31% (Edwads 21%).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:30:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

42%
Hillary Rodham Clinton      40,090      38.9%
Barack Obama     37,766     36.6%
John Edwards     17,145     16.6%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:30:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Why has Belknap county seemingly not even started counting?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

He is slowly closing the gap

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:27:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Actually, he seems to be pretty stagnant right now in raw votes, with about a 2,600-2,800 gap. Now, granted, we've got 59% of the precincts to go and perhaps a good bit larger chunk of votes, but something tells me Hill's going to take it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:29:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

It seems counties showing high pro-Obama figures have lower status of counting. Whether that means that Clinton picks up in larger (urban) precints or that Obama will pick up once these counties are counted more, I don't know.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

He does seem to be closing it suddenly. (Of course the results would turn when I said something told me they wouldn't.) We may have quite a fight going here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Apparently women have gone more solidly Clinton than in Iowa. and one of the college towns, the Clinton campaign was expecting 4,000 votes, and there have been in excess of 6000, and that has the Clinton campaign worried.

All of the college towns have yet to report.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:31:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Obama's off by less than 2,300 votes at 42% (36.6 vs. 38.8).

Looks like we won't be able to call this one until 60% have reported, maybe more.

Exciting!

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Heh. That last drop for Obama was almost completely due to a gain by Kucinich.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:02:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Huh? Kucinich back to normal. Apparently, a computer glitch.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:05:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

But before, I watched that lead grow from 800 to 2,200, and now -- that reduction was a blip, apparently -- it jumped to 3,564.

Hillary Clinton 25,463 40% 0 [Democrats]
Barack Obama 21,899 34% 0

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:58:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton 26,130
Barack Obama 23,635

Back down to about 2,500. Looks like each grabbed a good-sized precinct or two.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Clinton      17,393      39.8%
Obama     15,574     35.6%
Edwards     7,304     16.7%

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

But, if she does become the candidate, I wonder whether she really got the message about "Change". And if yes, if she can ditch the advisers who didn't.

The only President Clinton 44 I'd want to see is one showing claws once elected & viciously trashing her former detractors on the right.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:38:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

So we all thought the turnout surge was due to Obama and it turned out to be for Hillary?

How did the women voters break?

How will black women vote in South Carolina? For Obama or for Hillary?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

they were showing a figure of 56% to 26% of women at about three in the morning

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:50:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

15% reporting

Hillary Rodham Clinton      39.8%
Barack Obama     35.6%
John Edwards     16.7%
Bill Richardson     4.4%

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 08:39:31 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

The Huck with his 12% apparently met expectations so he did what he needed to do moving into South Carolina.

PruneFace and MobBoss ;-) (Paul, Guilliani) are fighting for 4th with about 8% each.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:06:20 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

That'd be nice to see Rudy! lose to Paul.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Top-level re-start (none / 0)

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics

22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged

Candidate Vote %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 40,090 38.9%
Barack Obama 37,766 36.6%
John Edwards 17,145 16.6%
Bill Richardson 4,842 4.7%
Dennis J. Kucinich 1,546 1.5%
Others 1,263 1.2%
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 205 0.2%
Mike Gravel 133 0.1%
Christopher J. Dodd 85 0.1%
42% reporting | Updated 9:29 PM ET

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:35:24 PM EST

Re: Top-level re-start (none / 0)

Meanwhile 44% counted,

Hillary Rodham Clinton 43,118 39.0%
Barack Obama 40,318 36.5%

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Top-level re-start (none / 0)

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics

22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged
Candidate Vote %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 49,941 39.4%
Barack Obama 45,850 36.2%
John Edwards 21,299 16.8%
Bill Richardson 5,693 4.5%
Dennis J. Kucinich 1,805 1.4%
Others 1,514 1.2%
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 274 0.2%
Mike Gravel 167 0.1%
Christopher J. Dodd 101 0.1%
48% reporting | Updated 9:41 PM ET

Now 4,000 votes. How many college students in New Hampshire?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:44:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Top-level re-start (none / 0)

I dunno, but according to Kos, CNN is reporting that college towns have not reported.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:47:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Top-level re-start (none / 0)

I see the latest jump for Clinton came from Rockingham Couty, which switched only recently, and now posts a solid 41:36 Clinton lead. That county includes Portsmouth and the outskirts of Manchester, so this could be suburban precints.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:50:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Top-level re-start (none / 0)

That's not good news for Clinton.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:56:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The least counted counties (none / 0)

Belknap County at 13% counted: Obama 34 Clinton 32 Edwards 22

Sullivan county (previously Obama by 46:30) at 35%: 43:33

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:39:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The least counted counties (none / 0)

Hi guys,

we are live blogging about the NH primary over at http://www.dailypolitics.eu. Join us there too if you want...

by Henning (info@social-europe.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The least counted counties (none / 0)

It's now overall:

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics

22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged
Candidate Vote %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 62,009 39.0%
Barack Obama 57,941 36.5%
John Edwards 26,416 16.6%
Bill Richardson 7,553 4.8%
Dennis J. Kucinich 2,284 1.4%
Others 1,759 1.1%
Christopher J. Dodd 389 0.2%
Joseph R. Biden Jr. 350 0.2%
Mike Gravel 212 0.1%
61% reporting | Updated 10:11 PM ET

...while Belknap County reached 25% reporting -- and switched to Clinton at 38:33. And Edwards still 21% there (like in Coös County; everywhere else, 15-18%)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:15:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The least counted counties (none / 1)

OK, time to call it a night. Hillary's going to win this one. We have a race.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:20:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Other Counties (none / 0)

At 46% statewide, Rockingham County is 44% counted, and turned from Obama lead to narrow Clinton lead.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:41:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 0)

at 47% lead is now about 4000

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 0)

Apparenlty, Edwards is strongest in Coös County, at the North end of the state -- French voters?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:47:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 0)

LOL, yes, all those damned communist Canadians.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 1)

Looking at the forbidden link, it seems the north of NH is empty - one town, Millsfield, had 10 voters... Also, it means those inhabitants are farmers and workers (lumberjacks ?), possibly with a strong working class identity

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 1)

linca commits a foul and must go back 3 spaces.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:55:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 0)

Do Not Pass Go, Do Not Collect $200.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 09:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Aha (none / 0)

Turnout for Dems: 280k

How many votes are we up to? About 160k?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

up from about 220k

republican turnout down as well

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

about 10k less counted so far

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:03:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

10k less counted? 150k?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

from my quick totaling of the figures yes

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

No, 133k, less than half of the total.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Bah, you Yurpians and your fancy use of addition. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:05:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

It's just geneticaly we have more fingers to help with the counting

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:11:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Must be that evolution crap y'all are on about.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 1)

you lot just need to pray for more fingers.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Yep. It worked for Atlanta with the rain, didn't it?

Oh, wait....

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:15:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 1)

No, it's just we have more nuclear plants...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:23:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Forget that, I can't count anymore.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:07:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

[I.e. that should have been 151k. Now 154k.]

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:09:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Ah, okay, CNN's got town-by-town results. None of the college towns have started reporting. But Manchester and Nashua appear to have gone to Clinton. They're well over halfway done, but that could give her the necessary cushion.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

by quite a few percent as well. but there's still only a 4k difference.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

That's the issue. The college towns are pretty small, 6k to 8k each, it seems.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

That's what I was curious about.

BTW gap now 4,400.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:18:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Edwards people are pumped. He may be able to stick it out for a good showing in union-heavy Nevada.

Still about 4400. Obama's running out of votes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

I'm having trouble figuring why the college towns wouldn't have begun reporting yet. Any ideas?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

That would seem obvious to me: least prepared for the highest turnouts?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:18:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

We seem to have dried up on results suddenly.

Still stuck at 65,100 to 60,700.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:25:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Larger than expected turn-out overwhelming the precinct workers.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:19:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Aha (none / 0)

Could be. CNN hasn't spoken about it anymore, so I'm not sure if they've begun counting.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:22:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 0)

talking about evil links, I google for a map of New Hampshire and ended up on the Free State Project... hugh. At least Ron Paul is doing quite poorly there, which hurts their credo.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:47:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Other Counties (none / 1)

lumberjacks ?

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:03:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Top-level re-start (none / 1)

After going back three places, I find myself here. So, anyway, it's clear that the media hype will be about the Clinton comeback, which mean that Edwards will now be getting Gravel-like coverage...

Oh, and those NH voters are tough on the small candidates ; in French elections, an irrelevant candidate with a policy of jumping in place will get about 0,3% of votes ; it seems those senators are getting less...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:00:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Holy shit! (none / 0)

Maybe the repubs could see an upturn, too? Romney up from 28% to 31.23%, McCain slight slide to 36.84%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:11:54 PM EST

Re: Holy shit! (none / 0)

It looks like it may well be closer, but it could just be an anomaly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Holy shit! (none / 0)

It looks like 37-31 all the way.

It also looks like unfortunately, Saint Rudy will be fourth.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:24:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I've just posted a diary on the polling disasters that Iowa and New Hampshire have been and concluded that
European Tribune - Polling disasters: Who is really doing to win the US election (Part 3)

I don't want to give people here the heebee jeebees as we say in Ireland, but the national head to head polls indicate that a Clinton McCain national contest is the one combination of candidates that the Republicans would actually win!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:32:17 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

MSNBC calls it for Clinton.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:32:35 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

AP calls for Clinton. CNN seems to suggest it will soon but is waiting on precincts in Portsmouth, Durham, and Hanover.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:35:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

She's now 5,000 ahead, out of 173,000 counted.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

5,800 ahead out of 180,000...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Yep, I think Hill's got it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

Now even 7,300 ahead. Maybe she got the student vote, too?...

Now I call it a day. I should be learning...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Indeed, it's way past my bed time. Very exciting race.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:47:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (4.00 / 2)

Tsst, Western Hemispherian. Think about us in Europe.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 11:05:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I was wondering about that.

What is it? 3 in the morning or so?

Catch the answer tomorrow.

Night all.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 11:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

gone 4

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 11:14:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

Hey, you're in the Western Hemisphere too ! It's 5 here :) (and, yes, I have insomnia.)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 11:20:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

only just

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 11:25:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

It was almost 5am where I am.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 05:36:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 1)

However, currently clearly pro-Obama county Sullivan lags behind in counting. No big cities therein though.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

No, there's a couple areas that are likely to favor Obama, but there's not enough votes to close the gap.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I knew this once but forgot: what happens to the delegates of a withdrawn candidate?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:34:39 PM EST

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (none / 0)

I think the candidate holds them, but AT's probably the expert here for that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:38:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread (4.00 / 3)

Depends on what the candidate does.

If the delegates are "released" by the candidate then it's up to the rules of the state party. Usually in that circumstance the delegates become 'uncommitted' and can vote for whomever they wish in the first ballot. I don't know of any exception to that but neither do I know every nuance of the by-laws of every state Democratic & Republican party .

It is within the realm of the possible for a candidate to quit the race but hold on to the delegates. In that case the delegates may have to vote for the person for whom they are pledged in the first ballot. The uncertainty here is some state parties do not, in fact, require a delegate to vote for the person they are a delegate for - Iowa, for one - even in the first ballot. The reasoning is to prevent a candidate from dropping out and still having pledged delegates. ;-)

And if none of this makes sense: welcome to US electoral politics.

(LOL)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 10:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread | 160 comments (160 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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US Primaries - New Hampshire Open Thread

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Candidate	Vote	%	Delegates
Hillary Rodham Clinton	110,550	39.2%	Delegates determined after all votes are in.
Barack Obama	102,883	36.4
John Edwards	47,803	16.9
Bill Richardson	12,987	4.6
Dennis J. Kucinich	3,845	1.4
Others	3,058	1.1
Joseph R. Biden Jr.	616	0.2
Mike Gravel	397	0.1
Christopher J. Dodd	195	0.1