by geezer in Paris
Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:40:02 AM EST
If history is any indication, Obama will now get cautious, and play it safe.
A double digit lead causes candidates' advisers to counsel caution- "park your mouth before you run over your own foot" -sort of thing.
Polls tend to have a range of uncertainty of around three percent, even in the absence of fraud.
My wild guess is that the GOP will push the results by another 3%, using the tried and true traditional fraud techniques, and another 2% or so using the latest Rovian creations.
And anyone who discounts the Bradley effect is making a bad mistake. The best estimates suggest at least another 3-4% difference between poll words and voter deeds.
Since all these elements (except the normal polling error) work against Obama, the current 8-9% lead adds up to ---Zero, with a 3% error one way or the other.
He could sure as hell lose this. If he wins thin, he will still lose it.
Here's an idea about what I'd like to see in that 30-minute block of time he just bought.
If Obama wins by a narrow margin, the GOP will challenge the results.
Waving an ACORN flag, (the old "Voter Fraud" flag with a new story that the eyeball-hungry media will devour), and with an armada of lawyers, they will drag it to the supremes again. Anyone care to guess how that might work out?
Obama needs a big story--one big enough to knock the GOP scams right off the front page.
Obama must also reckon with the growing possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran.
-Recent sale of 100 bunker-buster bombs to Israel:
-Recent installation of highest-end antiaircraft/antimissile system in Israel, with American crews:
-Latest Niger-Yellowcake story ( Evil Russian scientist supplies Iran with nuclear trigger designs).
There's another reason why Obama needs to go for broke. Anyone else remember the early years of the Clinton administration? Think of the incredible obstructionism, the overt sabotage from the GOP.
Accusations of--about everything: the murder of Vince Foster, drug dealing, sleazy real estate scams,
traitorous dealings with foreign powers-- the level of vitriol was just incredible.
Obama's every attempt, every policy will be sabotaged by those who'd rather starve than admit that "That One" might be able to save their white ass from the fire.
So our hero needs a landslide, and a powerful story- now, and after.
Here's a couple suggestions as to what they might be.
The financial narrative hovers like a cloud over everything right now, and these two ideas must be seen in that light.
The biggest need in the US today is a central payer medical care system that cuts the insurance companies right out of the loop. They perform no useful service that cannot be performed far more cheaply. Medicare administrative overhead is about 1%, and the Veteran's Administration system was incredibly efficient at delivering high quality care before it was sabotaged.
This is, however, primarily a humanitarian obligation- an obligation of a civilized society's government to it's citizens. Therefore, it's a hard sell in a country that largely believes that anything the government touches turns to shit. As well, the perception that it is a citizen's responsibility to provide their own medical care is deeply ingrained still, or McCain wouldn't have dared to define it as such during the debate.
A good case can be made, however, that the % of GDP consumed by medical care in the united states (and for crappy results) could be reduced by about 5% of GDP by such a plan, if it were only as efficient as that of France.
Chart of health care costs vs. GDP
As a Keynsian stimulus, such a program may be a non-starter. Most of the infrastructure is already in place, but it needs only to be reorganized and liberated from a predatory market-model to begin providing real returns, in a national sense. Input from the ET economics brain trust would be welcome here.
"Let's put America Back on the Tracks!"
-A state of the art, 21st century system. Huge savings in energy consumption down the road. A dream- that graceful, bullet flying down the track, with us along for the ride- A dream that touches something deep in most people.
-A real public-private structure, rather than a veiled predation plan, with profit potential structured by statute to prevent the advent of another generation of robber barons.
-Then retool the makers of useless gas-guzzling SUVs and billion-dollar bombers into light rail production, perhaps one of the new overhead-suspended systems that appear so good. ANY profit is better than Detroit's current circumstances. Hit 'em now, while they're on the ropes.
-A chance to renew positive business relationships with Europe-- buy a few thousand TGV units, then negotiate the right to manufacture under license, then a technology partnership, putting some of that unused design talent in the US back to work.
Is it possible that one could pay for the other?
Change you can Believe in.