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The Blow-out returns, and bigger than ever before

by Frank Schnittger Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 04:57:26 PM EST

OK, its time to bring this baby home.  I have resisted attempts at final prediction because I have been around long enough to see some extraordinary turn-arounds late in election campaigns.  I have seen opinion polls get things spectacularly wrong. I have seen October surprises and apparent Bradley effects. I have seen elections stolen by voter suppression and outright vote counting fraud.

Too often it has just been the blind optimism of the partisans who presumed their apparently self-evident  world-views were shared by the voters. I have always looked for hard data to support any prognostications made.  I entitled my first Diary in this series Who is really going to win the US Election? in an attempt to focus on the data available rather than the wishes or political preferences of bloggers here.  It was supposed to be about who would win the election, rather than who should.  


That first diary, written in Dec. 2007, and based on the then available opinion poll data concluded: European Tribune - Who is really going to win the US Election?

CONCLUSION. The irony of the polarising bi-partisan system is that the most likely Democrat Nominee (Clinton) is the least certain to win the national election and the likely third place contender (Edwards) is the only one likely to beat all the Republican Contenders. And of all the main Republican contenders, the least likely to win the nomination (McCain) would be most likely to win the national election.

Its early days and all to play for, but my money (based on looking at the trends to date) is on a Clinton Huckabee contest with Clinton winning by a narrow majority. It's a bit like trying to predict the future by looking in the rear view mirror and we all know that big money and powerful vested interests are in the driving seat.

So what happened, and why did I get my own (admittedly very tentative and heavily qualified) prediction so badly wrong?  

The first thing I got wrong was that I was not then aware of the extraordinary ground game that Obama was assembling - an organisation which made all previous ground games look like hopelessly amateur efforts (including Dean's, and one led by a certain Karl Rove). Whilst Clinton relied on the traditional Democratic Party machine, unmatched name recognition and the sense of inevitability that comes from 30 point leads in the polls, Obama was making sure he had the Iowa Caucuses tied up. His win in Iowa gave him the credibility as a candidate he needed heading into Super Tuesday and his ground game and the sense of presumption and entitlement surrounding Hillary's campaign did the rest.

The second thing I got wrong is that I bought into the "McCain has imploded" narrative and concluded that neither Romney nor Giulliani could attract the southern and fundamentalist Christian vote - which left Huckabee.  I underestimated how much his populist economic message would alarm the business base of the GOP and he never recovered from not being competitive in the early northern Primaries.  So McCain was resurrected as the lowest common denominator GOP candidate who also had some chance of success in the General Election because of his "maverick" image and support from independents.

However McCain also had one fatal flaw:  he wasn't much loved by any wing of his party and so he felt he had to shore up his party base by picking a fundamentalist Christian and a women who might entice some Clinton loyalists from the Democratic party.  To be fair, Obama had a similar problem, having only narrowly secured the nomination from Hilary Clinton - the darling of many women voters and more traditional Democrats.  

I thought at the time his best move would be to offer her the VP slot (if she wanted it) to re-unite the party and present a more experienced "dream ticket" to the US electorate in the General.  Sure she had high negatives (from both Democrats and Republican's) but the Democrats would get over it and the Republicans would oppose Obama anyway.  As we approach November the VP candidates tends to fade into the background in any case.

In the event, Obama did the next best thing by appointing Biden who had the friendship of the Clintons, the acceptance of all Democrats, and the experience where Obama was weakest.  It is reported that McCain wanted to appoint Lieberman as his VP candidate but was over-ruled by his campaign advisers who decided that McCain needed to consolidate his Republican base first. And for a while it worked, Palin was a media darling, and McCain surged ahead in the polls.

Two things then went wrong for McCain.  First, Palin proved to be spectacularly inept at the job, and the Financial Melt-down brought it home to all American's that this election had to be more than just a beauty contest.  It is also important to point out that Obama himself has run a superb campaign and barely put a foot wrong.  There are a million ways a relatively inexperienced, liberal, black young Senator could have given his opponent and the media the opening to tear into the heart of his narrative of intelligence, judgment, steadiness and moderation.  Had he given the slightest indication that he might fit the unspoken white fears of a vengeful black radical, his candidacy was toast.

And that is really all the McCain (and Clinton) campaigns have tried to do.  The sometimes ludicrous attempts to link Obama to Rev. Wright, Ayres, Islamic terrorism and Acorn are supposed to conjure up the ghosts of Jessie Jackson, Louis Farrakhan, Malcolm X, and Al Sharpton.  Instead, by his self-discipline and forbearance, Obama conjured up the ghosts of Martin Luther King and Colin Powell: figures safe enough to be included in the central American mythology of itself, of a nation coming to terms with its racist past.  

Whereas McCain and Palin sought to divide America into real Americans and un-Americans (cf. Blacks, Latinos, liberals, and urban dwellers generally) Obama was inclusive and sought to identify himself with the economic concerns of the "middle class".

The foreign policy failures of the Bush era and the economic melt-down were always going to make this election an uphill task for any Republican. The emergence of a black candidate gave them one shot at overturning the odds. Obama - a bit like Muhammad Ali and his "rope-a-dope" strategy - took their best shots, and now is about to launch his knock-out blow.

So what makes me so confident that Obama can't now be beaten anymore?  

Firstly, he has recovered from a "wobble" in the polls, where his lead in the Pollster.com poll averages declined from a peak of 9% 10 days ago to 5.7% three days ago. At that rate of decline (.5% per day) McCain could have re-taken the lead just before the Election. However Obama has since recovered in the national poll averages to an 8% lead and time is rapidly running out for McCain.

But worse than that for McCain, Obama has at least a 6.5% lead in all the states he needs to win the 270 Electoral votes and many other states where he is also in the lead.

And the table above does not factor in the latest slew of polls for today all of which show double digit leads for Obama in the states he needs to win, and even in some like Indiana which he does not need to win: RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls

Thursday, October 23
Race   (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
CaliforniaPPICObama 56, McCain 33Obama +23
FloridaQuinnipiacObama 49, McCain 44Obama +5
IllinoisBig10 BattlegroundObama 61, McCain 32Obama +29
IndianaBig10 BattlegroundMcCain 41, Obama 51Obama +10
IowaBig10 BattlegroundObama 52, McCain 39Obama +13
KansasSurveyUSAMcCain 53, Obama 41McCain +12
MichiganBig10 BattlegroundObama 58, McCain 36Obama +22
MinnesotaBig10 BattlegroundObama 57, McCain 38Obama +19
MinnesotaNational Journal/FDObama 50, McCain 40Obama +10
MontanaMontana State U.McCain 40, Obama 44Obama +4
NationalRasmussen ReportsObama 52, McCain 45Obama +7
NationalGallup (Traditional)Obama 50, McCain 46Obama +4
NationalGallup (Expanded)Obama 51, McCain 45Obama +6
NationalReuters/C-SPAN/ZogbyObama 52, McCain 40Obama +12
NationalHotline/FDObama 48, McCain 43Obama +5
NationalIBD/TIPPObama 45, McCain 44Obama +1
NationalGWU/BattlegroundObama 49, McCain 45Obama +4
OhioBig10 BattlegroundObama 53, McCain 41Obama +12
OhioQuinnipiacObama 52, McCain 38Obama +14
PennsylvaniaSurveyUSAObama 53, McCain 41Obama +12
PennsylvaniaBig10 BattlegroundObama 52, McCain 41Obama +11
PennsylvaniaMorning CallObama 52, McCain 42Obama +10
PennsylvaniaQuinnipiacObama 53, McCain 40Obama +13
PennsylvaniaNational Journal/FDObama 51, McCain 41Obama +10
TexasRasmussenMcCain 54, Obama 44McCain +10
West VirginiaOrion Strategies (D)McCain 49, Obama 44McCain +5
WisconsinBig10 BattlegroundObama 53, McCain 40Obama +13
WisconsinNational Journal/FDObama 53, McCain 40Obama +13

Please note that Real Clear Politics does not even list polls like Research 2000 national polls (because it is sponsored by DKOS) and excludes what it considers to be Democratic leaning polls from its averages. Completely inconsistently, it includes Research 2000 state-wide polls even though they too are sponsored by DKOS.  It can also be very selective in the time period over which its averages its polls and in any case they only employs simple arithmetic averages. I therefore use the much more statistically sophisticated Pollster.com or fivethirtyeight.com figures in any trend analysis of all polls.

McCain is reduced to abandoning Colorado and targeting Pennsylvania in an attempt to maintain a viable strategy for achieving 270 electoral votes.  However as the above table shows, no less than 5 polls today all show Obama ahead there by double digits.  Not even Ohio is within double digits of a McCain win.  McCain is down to the Republican rump states like Kansas and Texas, and even here his lead has been eroding rapidly.

So what has led to the McCain implosion in the last few days?

Firstly there is disagreement amongst pollsters as to whether McCain's recovery around the last debate was anything more than statistical noise and the "coincidence" of a slew of Republican leaning pollsters all releasing polls at around the same time.

Secondly, Obama's strong showing in the last debate took a few days to be reflected in the national and state-wide polls.

Thirdly, the Powell endorsement may have closed the deal for many independent and moderate Republicans voters worried about Obama's military inexperience.

Fourthly, the extraordinary success of Obama's ground game in bring voters to the polls early is rapidly converting "likely voters" in actual voters.  (One third of the electorate may have voted before Nov. 4th.)

Fifthly, the McCain/Palin campaign seems to have fallen apart: witness Palin public disagreement with McCain over robocalls accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists", spectacularly inept Palin comments re: real and unAmerican parts of America (read almost pure white and multi-racial), and mounting numbers of Republicans and conservatives endorsing Obama.

Sixthly, Obama raised a record $150 Million in September, and is outspending McCain by 3 to 1 in critical media markets.

Seventhly, and this may seem trivial, but we should not underestimate the damage the revelation that Palin spent $150,000 of Republican donor money on clothes does to her hockey mom and his "Joe the Plumber" attempts to identify the ticket with ordinary (even "real") Americans.

Allied to the apparent incoherence of public unscripted comments, increased worries about his age as her credibility collapses, and a campaign sending out many contradictory messages all at once; this gives the popular impression of a campaign in disarray, a party demoralised, and a pair of candidates who seem at odds with themselves and each other.  And the even the MSM narrative is beginning to reflect this.

Everywhere the imagery is of Obama advancing into "red states" whilst McCain clings onto forlorn hopes of clinging on to Pennsylvania and Ohio.  If current trends continue, not even Republican bastions like Georgia, West Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota will be safe, and the Democratic dream of a 60 member Senate Caucus comes ever closer to reality.  The likely size of a Democratic victory may still be in doubt, but unless we construct a really paranoid conspiracy theory, it is no longer possible to construct an evidence based argument that Obama will not win.

Display:
I initially laughed at that Q poll in Ohio before the University of Wisconsin ("Big Ten") poll came out backing Q up.  I have no idea what, if anything, has broken in Ohio, but it seems the bottom may have fallen out for McCain there at long last.  PPP also says their poll will be in line with Suffolk's Ohio poll (which had Obama up 9).  So we may well be looking at an 8- or 10-point race in Ohio.

Another poll out of Florida tonight from the St Petersburg Times and the Tampa Tribune has that state moving the right way too:

Obama 49
McCain 42

Ras (M51-46O) and DemocracyCorps (M46-44O) both have Obama pulling to within the MoE in Georgia, and that, I think, may actually indicate Obama has pulled even or taken the lead based on several factors.

A pollster in Arizona says he thinks that state could go to Obama.

Another double-digit lead in a national poll from CBS/NYT:

Obama 52
McCain 39

Less than two weeks to go.  Not only is McCain running out of time to close the gap, he's not even closing it.  He's being crushed.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:35:22 PM EST
Ras also has Obama moving up to 30% of the white vote in Georgia.  If that holds on Election Day, Obama takes it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:38:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are simply too many polls with wide margins for Obama for them all to be outliers.  There comes a time when the dominant narrative has one side winning and the other defensive and losing - and when that happens, who wants to be associated with a loser - the momentum just builds further.  

Its very hard to see how McCain could come back again now. Obama is getting more confident and aggressive in his rhetoric in Indianapolis, he is becoming less worried about being seen to be "uppity" or presumptuous, and he is taking the battle to the Republican heartland.  I still hope to see him in more deeply red states as the campaign builds to a climax - it gives the sense of a gathering storm.

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One more slam tonight from SurveyUSA to McCain.

Indiana:

Obama 49
McCain 45

Intrade now projecting Obama to 375 EVs.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 08:41:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That may be the result of the Lugar endorsement.  He is beloved in Indiana.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 08:44:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lugar didn't endorse Obama.

Indiana would really just be an irrelevant embarrassment to McCain.  If Indiana's going blue by somewhere between 4 and 10 points, as the only two recent polls suggest -- forget it, Ohio really must be a 10-pointer, Florida a 7-pointer, Virginia a 10-pointer, etc.

And with those kinds of margins, it's a blowout.  I wouldn't want to do the party on November 4th either if I were on the verge of losing two states -- Virginia and Indiana -- my party hasn't lost in 44 years.

Obama taking Georgia or Arizona would be like kicking McCain in the kidneys while he's lying on the ground.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 08:49:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scratch my previous comment.  Three polls in a row -- Big Ten, SUSA and PPP -- say Obama's winning Indiana.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... McCain's game since the meltdown has been aimed at shoring up the base, which is increasingly turning off independents.

But if he slid from the low 90's to the low 80's among Republicans, then largely recovered as a result of the post-meltdown all negative, all the time strategy ...

... it took longer for the slide among independents to kick in ... independents tend to be lower information voters, in the sense of picking up information in downtime during a week rather than following information on Fox or Rush or right wing internet, so they are less tuned in to the 24-hour news cycle.

But OTOH, as he furiously works to ramp up the base, with ads all over the place in media in the state ... broadcast TV, cable, radio ... sooner or later it sinks in among independents, and Obama's message is very disciplined in framing McCain as "talking about anything except the economy".

And the Republican share among Republican-leaning independents in Ohio can fall well under 40%, as Blackwell saw in a base-only support scenario that saw him blown out in the Governor's race. If they get the idea that the person is a Republican extremist.

So "a positive move in the polls" consisting of a strong return of Republicans and a slow slide of right leaning independents is, in reality, not a move that leads anywhere positive by the first Tuesday in November. And after getting back up into the low 90's among Republicans, there's no more uptick to be gained there, and the slide among independents goes on.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 12:39:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would only add that McCain has passed over into "loser" status already in the public mind. Everywhere, at the market, on the sidewalk, one gets the feeling it's over.

And Americans do not like losers.

Obama may not win Alaska or Arizona (although the latter is quite possible) but he will rack up a massive popular vote lead to accompany the electoral college wipeout and justify for the first time in a long long while the notion of a popular mandate to govern.

by melvin on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:49:10 PM EST
woops, wrong button.

This is a very good thing. These razor thin majorities have proved disastrous. We need over 55% if at all possible to shut down the crowd claiming illegitimacy in some way and more paralysis.

by melvin on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:52:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We've just said the same thing simultaneously!  See my comment above.

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:52:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ha! Well great minds and all that.

Or functioning brain stems any way. The point is pretty obvious to Americans, I'm not sure if readers here quite get what I believe to be true, that it will greatly depress turnout for McCain.

But then I don't even know who reads here.

Rather hilarious really to see the fanatics at each other's throats already over who lost them the election.

by melvin on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 07:58:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
melvin:
But then I don't even know who reads here.

About half Americans and half Europeans, as far as I can make out - but they can be based all over the world.

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 08:33:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's all down to micro-demographics and GOTV now for the presidential race.

The worry now shifts to the House and Senate races.

Trying to be skeptical it appears the Democrats will come 2 seats shy in the Senate of taking control - get 58, need 60.  Georgia and Kentucky could flip utterly based on the ground game and Obama's coat tails.  If Obama wins Georgia then that seat will flip.  Lundsford is on his own in Kentucky, the polling says it's even, and who the heck knows?  Would be nice to take-out that jerk McConnell!  Not only would it flip the Senate it would decapitate the GOP leadership in the Senate; there's nobody to take McConnell's place.

The Democratic Party (DCCC) has plonked $12.6 million into 51 congressional races, which should help.  Right now it's looking like the Democrats will pick-up another 16 to 40 seats and it's looking like the House will be slightly more 'pink' over the next two years.  Neither John Boehner (House Minority Leader) or Roy Blunt (GOP Whip) seem to be in danger - drat the luck but the rank and file will definitely move the GOP Congressional representation to the Wing-Nut Side of the Republican Party.

One thing that needs to be watched over the next 12 days: there's an outside chance the GOP will be decimated in this election.  A combination of GOP staying home, GOP switchers, and an Obama landslide could produce as much as a six seats in the Senate and seventy in the House flip.  Right now it doesn't look like its going to happen.  

All in All, Obama, at worst, can figure a solid majority in the House and a filibustering Senate.  The Senate, by design, is intended to slow or halt rapid political policy changes.  If the Senate goes all-out obstructing little may happen during the first two years of Obama's presidency.

 

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 08:43:26 PM EST
Taking out McConnell would be icing on the cake to good ol' Tom Daschle -- perfect payback for 2004 -- who's played a big role in the planning of Obama's ground game and strategy.  (The Obama campaign is basically a hybrid of Obama and the Chicago Boys, Trippi-ism, and a campaign Daschle and his guys planned out in 2004 for a potential Daschle run.)

Surprisingly, since he was so ineffective as Senate Minority Leader.

I think Martin will pull it off in Georgia.  At least that's my guess for now, even though the polling puts it at something between a tie and a very slight lead for Shameless.  Obama looks like he's going to get damned close, and that should be enough to get Martin to the finish line.

Kinda think we may get Mississippi and Kentucky too.

Still want to see polls in Maine and Texas before I think on KY and MS though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 08:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama has 21% lead in Maine - that enough?

Trippi-ism?

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trippi-ism -- as in Joe Trippi, Howard Dean's campaign manager in 2004, who pioneered the whole online organizing and fundraising thing that Obama has used so well.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:47:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama has 21% lead in Maine - that enough?

No.

:-)

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Such a lead might cause Collins and Snow to see the wisdom of supporting a Democratic reform agenda in the Senate and thus reduce the importance of getting to 60 senators in this election.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:18:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.  We need to scare the bejesus out of the moderate (sic) Republicans.  It's looking like they will have a blocking minority in the Senate.  If they 'hang tough, hang together' nothing is going to get accomplished in the first two years of a potential Obama administration.

Also, I'm not to sure of some of the Democrats in the Senate either.  

We need to send a clear threat message: Move Left or Your Ass is On the Line.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 05:07:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Move Left or Your Ass is On the Line.
Moving left will be more readily accomplished by framing radical changes as pragmatic necessity.  Call it "Changing what we must so that we can save what we can."  It will be best accomplished if it is well sold to the public and has great popular support.    

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 12:43:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Surprisingly little polling on the Texas Senate race.  Last I saw, seems like 10 years ago, Cornyn was leading by a goodly amount, been so long I've forgotten the numbers!  Nate doesn't think much of Noriega's chances.  Don't know what that is based on.

I keep hoping on Texas from the large Latino and AA population in the state.  So far, hope has been dashed.

I still wonder how Snowe is able to keep going in Maine.  Really thought that seat would have a good chance of flipping; the biggest disappointment of this election.

Mississippi would be ... yurk.  I don't want a return of the Southern Democrats.  Really I don't.  Elect a Moderate Republican and be done with it.  

Georgia would be nice despite the above.  Hanging Chambliss out would be sweet revenge for that odious campaign of 2002.  
 

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:38:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't sweat the Southern thing with Martin.  He's done a good job reaching out to the blogosphere, from what I've seen.  They had an interview with him over at OpenLeft a week or two ago, in which he talked about winning on liberalism/progressivism in GA.

He probably won't be Bernie Sanders, but he should be fine.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:45:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NoriegA 15 points behind in today's poll.

Snowe isn't running this cycle

McConnell +4
Chambliss +2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/senate.html

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:58:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's Susan Collins running, not Olympia Snowe.  Last poll I saw had Collins ahead by about 10, but that was a while ago.

One thing to keep in mind: Initially the Senate candidates were outperforming Obama when Democrats started shooting up at the beginning of October.  But Obama's closing the gap rapidly and may well be doing better than the others now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:03:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Collins +11 today

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DUH!

Collins.  Yeah.  That One.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:07:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the greatest "Sit on It and Rotate" in my political life ...

In the Minnesota 6th Congressional District the sitting GOP representative went on national television and said Obama was anti-American and members of Congress need to be investigated to see if they were anti-American.  

A ballyhoo broke out.  To stem the tide Michelle Bachmann then went on national television and claimed she never said that.

In a YouTube universe.

Her opponent, El Tinklenberg, has over the past week received $1.3 million dollars, with more coming in every day.  To quote his (bemused) financial director, "It's raining money."

The capper came today: pre-Interview Bachmann was ahead by 4 points.  Today a poll has Tinklenberg ahead 47-44.  A 7 point swing in a week.

neener, neener.  Sit on It and Rotate, Bleechmann.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 11:49:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not that Bachmann knows how to speak the code correctly as it is, but I think what happened with her demonstrates that the frame Bush had been exploiting since 9-11 now works against politicians more than it does for them.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 03:12:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... following the lead of the general staff about how extreme to be.

Problem for her is the general staff know that they are screwed in the Presidential election unless there is a third "game changer" and McCain does not blow it this time, or if they can successfully steal the election in a broad slate of states at the same time against multi-point leads rather than slander margins.

In either case, the Presidential campaign needs to keep the base activated.

An sensible Congresscritter in a Republican leaning, swingable seat would have distanced from the McCain campaign already, so it follows that the House surrogates they can field from swingable seats are longer on the loyal Republican footsoldier department than on the political sense department.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Michelle thought she had a save seat when she went on Countdown. The most amazing thing about her appearance was that Chris actually shut up long enough for her to hang herself.  They might find it harder to recruit sitting Members as surrogate foamers after this fiasco.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:26:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Congresscritter is that they know the difference between a comfortable lead in a Republican leaning seat and sitting in a rock solid Republican seat.

She was in the first position and acted like she was in the second.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:59:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In other congresscritter news, the NRCC is pulling the plug on Hayes in NC's 8th Congressional District.

Say hello to their new congressman, Larry Kissell.  Larry's also a Kossack whose diary can be found at this link.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 08:55:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... polling in eight Republican held Senate seats ... two, Minnesota and Alaska, are only toss-ups that lean Democrat, and Alaska is more likely to be decided by 12 jurors in DC than by a couple of hundred thousand Alaskan voters, but its still lean-D right now.

There is a big gap between the eight safe, lean, or tilt Dem Senate seats and the next opportunities ... FiveThirtyEight.com does not have any Senate seats in the toss-up, tilt Republican category, so the three seats to look for a Rep+Lieberman filibuster proof majority are lean-Republican Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi-special (the regular MS seat is safe, but Trent Lott resigned, so there is essentially an election to fill his seat for the balance of his term, and that was the race that the stronger Dem candidate opted for).

Note that a Republican filibuster is much harder to hold together early in a President's first term if they can go to campaign "to just allow the bill to come to a vote" in a state that they carried where the Senator is up for re-election in 2010. Ohio could well be a case in point, with Voinovich the highest ranking state-wide Republican remaining.

And if Obama can break one or two high profile filibusters standing in the way of his "platform", his clout in Congress would go up dramatically.

That's a big reason why its important to run up the score.

Republican seats due for election in 2010 in states that Obama might win include:
Iowa and Missouri
Ohio and Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
North Carolina
and Florida.

And in a landslide election, Georgia or Kentucky.

Republican Senators facing the mid-term are a lot more wary about setting themselves for being "Do-Nothing Republicans", which is the strongest possible frame for the party of the President to pick up rather than lose seats in a mid-term election.

If only three Senators have to be flipped to break a Republican plus Connecticut for Lieberman filibuster, an Obama win in 7 or more of those states would be the best possible setting to break a Republican filibuster on the two biggest items in his platform, the Energy bill and the Health Care bill.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 12:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Everybody talking about how it's in the bag, please Shut The Fuck Up. You know that ground game everyone is talking about as a difference maker? Well it don't mean shit unless folks show up for GOTV Weekend (Nov. 1-4) and actually put it into operation. All the work we have been doing has been about preparing for this - getting tons of data and volunteer lists is useless if people get complacent and don't use it for the election.

So go Volunteer on GOTV Weekend if you are in or within driving distance, or can afford to fly to anything remotely resembling a swing state. By swing state I mean anyplace that was every thought of that way i.e. has a real ground operation - VA, NM included.

Again, no offense intended, but if we relax, we lose several points in every state where we have this organization.

by MarekNYC on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:09:55 PM EST
I will be.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:14:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry - will be in Spain!

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Chill.  We've got this in the bag.  Easy-peasy.  I'm planning on kicking-back Nov. 4th with a bottle of tequila and a mess of tacos.  

What's wrong with that?  

KIDDING!

Already working and plan on driving people to the polling place.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
plan on driving people to the polling place.

Heh. Is that what they told you?

by MarekNYC on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I jist do wot I be told.  Saves me from thinking.

Serious sidenote, the organizers Obama parachuted in to our local office had their tires slashed last week.  Things are getting ugly.  The Wingers are starting to foam at the mouth.  Be careful and watch your back.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:04:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
our local office
 Where?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:06:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Email sent.


Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mmmmm . . . tequila and tacos.  Too bad I'm in the middle of a school week.
by Zwackus on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:02:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do I dare joke about Irish drinking habits here? ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:07:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't drink Tequila -  but if you're offering...

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:10:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't stand the stuff myself.  Bourbon, Scotch or ale for me on election night.  AT's a Westerner.  They're weird out there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah yes - those Californicators

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
California?  

<exasperation> roll eyes </exasperation>

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or Texas.  C'mon, you know this: Everything out there is either Texas or California.  All this "Arizona"/"New Mexico" stuff is just nonsense. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm going to leave you two to fight your own wars - its 3.30 am here and mummy says its time for bed...

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Them's fightin' words 'round these hyar parts, boy.

:-)


Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:37:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Oklahoma? Fictions invented so the Texas and California college football teams can play their taxi squads and pretend its an intervarsity game.

Of course, in Oz, it really is just one state for the western 1/3 of the country.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:02:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma's just Texas with even more crazy.

Nobody actually lives in Wyoming.  Even people who say they're from Wyoming, like Dick Cheney, aren't actually from it.

Oregon is a make-believe state that's really just two chunks of Washington and California crammed together.

I'll grant you Colorado.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 05:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, I have relatives living in Colorado, out in the plains well east of CO Springs.

And looking around the high plains west of the Rockies when I was there decades ago, it would be easy to believe that it was a purely fictitious state.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 05:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tequila makes hair grow on your chest.

Scotch and Bourbon is for effete Yurp-peons who can't handle a Real Man's/Woman's Drink.

:-þ

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:27:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you should try Poitín

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Back when I was living in NYC I got involved with some Irish (illegal) immigrants who would offer me a "wee drop o' the poteen" ere now & again.

Wasn't bad, I must say.  

Mostly I don't drink hard liquor as it puts me to sleep after about two slugs.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:43:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, the American Southwest: Where the men are men...and the women are too. :D

(ducks/runs)

Tequila a real man's drink.  Pssshh.  With your sissy salt and lime/lemon/whatever.  Weak, I say.  Weak.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
where the men are Men and the sheep are afraid?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mummy pulls from computer by the ear....

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:43:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shh.  We're still trying to win Montana.  Save that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:43:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now, say nice things about California.

The good news ... it's only a life sentence. You eventually leave this planet of idiots.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 05:15:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Making tacos is an epic undertaking, requiring at least five hours of labor.  I have to make everything myself, and while it comes out excellent, it's really slow.  Nothing I couldn't prep beforehand, though.

Furthermore, I can find a few varieties of Tequila, one of which is properly intoxicating.

The problem is that Nov. 4th in the US is late morning/early afternoon Nov. 5th here in Japan, and I'll be hard at work educating the young minds of Japan when the results come in.

While I'm sure they'd love the tacos, the tequila might be a bit inappropriate.  

by Zwackus on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:21:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You could always put a TV in the Classroom and call it a civics class!

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 05:12:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The win is in the bag, now its time to run up the score and put the hurt on the Republicans. Leave them too shell shocked to be able to organize a serious fight in Congress for the first three months.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting question in the CBS/NYT poll:

Do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to raise income taxes on households and businesses that make MORE than $250,000 a year in order to help provide health insurance for people who are not covered by health insurance?

Good Idea 62%
Bad Idea 33%



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:14:55 PM EST
The AP is reporting McCain has only $12m left.  Worse, Obama and Democratic allies have bought up virtually all of the remaining ad slots, thus choking off McCain, the 527s and the RNC.

Obama hasn't filed his final financial reports yet -- he has until midnight -- but it's, I think, a safe bet it'll be more than that.

McCain's out of money, out of ad slots, and out of time to build a ground game.

It's just a week and a half before the election, and McCain has just suffered what is probably his worst day of polling all year.

Politico is also reporting that the GOP is exploding behind the scenes.  Senior McCain aides are already sending out resumes to new jobs.  The campaign, the RNC, the NRSC, and the NRCC are on the verge of civil war.

McCain's got a prayer.  Not much else.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:35:03 PM EST
Obama and Democratic allies have bought up virtually all of the remaining ad slots, thus choking off McCain, the 527s and the RNC

ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!

Cut the buggers off from their last minute messaging.  Beautiful.  I frickin' love it.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:46:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
:D

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:47:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could even add up to two points from those damn 72-hour Undecideds.  (The people who make-up their minds in the last 3 days.)  The weekend is key to reach these people and reason campaigns make a last-minute media buy in selected markets.

To quote kcurie, "je je je je."


Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain's also burning $1.5-2m per day.  He's going to run out of money, and he's still got to retire debt and pay salaries and benefits.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 09:49:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Black Democrats now outnumber all Republicans by 36,000 in North Carolina.  Massive, massive turnout.  And that's not counting the 230-250,000 non-black Dems.

Absolutely amazing numbers in both NC and GA so far.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:10:39 PM EST
Acorn sowing seeds?

How did Obama make so many babes so quickly?

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean like diebolding lots of districts and blaming the huge difference between exit polls and counted votes on the Bradley effect?

I wish I could call that "a really paranoid conspiracy theory". I don't think that it will happen, but I don't rule it out either.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:34:39 PM EST
Democrats control a lot more districts now, and the margin is getting so wide that it wouldn't change the result unless done on an extraordinary scale.

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could still have an effect in those Senate races which are still close. It would be much easier to create a plausible MOE flip without looking too suspicious, and a disappointing Senate result is probably the most effective way - short of an accident over the Pacific this weekend - to put the brakes on the Obama train.

Also, the wingers really are going off the deep end. They seem to be expecting Soviet (sic) tanks on their lawns seconds after the final result is announced. I doubt this means much in practice, but things might get sporadically exciting in the battlegrounds over the next fortnight.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 11:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The whole damn GOP is going off the deep end.

In the Senate debate in Iowa the GOP candidate Reed called Senator Harkin a traitor.  Boy.  That isn't going to play well in Iowa.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 11:05:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not surprising.  To the wingers, Obama has been turned into some weird combination of Lenin and pre-Mecca Malcolm X.  I'm torn between finding it absolutely hilarious and incredibly frightening.

Fortunately, I believe the relevant Senate races are in states that don't use touchscreen voting.  Pretty sure Georgia does not.  Pretty sure NC does not.  Not sure on Kentucky and Mississippi.  I know Virginia does use them, but Warner's beating Gilmore's ass so badly that I'm amazed Gilmore hasn't dropped out and endorsed him.  And Kaine controls the machines anyway, so I don't see the wingers stealing anything here.

Don't think they have electricity in CO and NM, so no worries.  They'll count by hand and send'em into the networks by Morse code, so we're good. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 11:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How many dots and dashes in O-B-A-M-A?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 05:21:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One good use of excess Obama cash would be to purchase small CCTV systems with low light cameras and one frame per second recorders to place in parking lots and other likely targets of RNC vandals.  A bunch of arrests and subsequent prosecutions could have a very salutary effect as foam suppression agents.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:44:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ThatBritGuy:
Also, the wingers really are going off the deep end. They seem to be expecting Soviet (sic) tanks on their lawns seconds after the final result is announced.

Palin already has them in her back yard.  They're in her sight line every morning waving their turrets at her

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 05:16:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the most effective way - short of an accident over the Pacific this weekend - to put the brakes on the Obama train.

You know, after Mel Carnahan and Paul Wellstone, that's not even funny.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 05:24:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but the Soviet tank bit is pretty damned funny.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 08:52:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Special one for you and poemless, TBG, in honor of your Soviet tank joke.  Obama's second book has been translated into Russian and just been published:

Presumably the hammer and sickle at the bottom of the cover have been cut off in the pic.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 08:58:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That kind of stuff only works if the perps have some serious political cover.  The Ohio results were probably messed with in '04 but it won't happen this year.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:48:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only works if the margin is small enough to steal it.  Can't be any wider than a point or two in key states, or the operation just won't deliver.  Right now, it isn't nearly close enough to accomplish the mission.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 23rd, 2008 at 10:49:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... swing on the outcome.

But vote stealing like that has to be targeted to Democratic precincts. If Obama is ahead by 10 in PA, he will be winning many Republican districts, and vote stealing will only narrow the margin, not flip the result.

The reason the Democrats were so vulnerable to vote stealing and voter suppression in 2000 and 2004 was because of the very narrow path to an Electoral College victory for the Democrat in those years.

Now its McCain who has the narrow path ... and if his campaign has decided it must win PA to have a chance of winning, that means they have to steal the election in Florida AND Ohio AND Virginia AND North Carolina AND Pennsylvania.

That's just very unlikely to be something they can pull off, especially with State Democratic establishments looking to catch and prosecute vote thieves in Ohio AND Virginia AND North Carolina AND Pennsylvania.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:19:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boom.

Georgia (InsiderAdvantage):

Obama 48%
McCain 47%
Other 2%

Georgia's a toss-up.  Case closed.

Of great importance: Blacks outnumber whites among the undecideds.  This has reverse-Bradley Effect written all over it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 10:29:30 AM EST
Drew J Jones:
reverse-Bradley Effect

Is this where Blacks will not reveal their voting intention for fear of being considered racist for voting for another black man?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 12:14:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or where whites will vote for a black but deny the intention or the fact for fear of being labeled a N#**ER LOVER.  That would be among the rural over 60 crown.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The one we've all been waiting for - and this without Obama actively campaigning here.  When you take differential turnout into account...

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 12:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The impact of yesterdays polls has been to push the tight races in Obama's direction everywhere except Pennsylvannia, and it retains its strong Dem clssification.


Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 01:22:34 PM EST


Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 02:50:14 PM EST
Ooh, class war. Or something that looks a little like it might once have known it, at least.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 04:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
?????????????????????????

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 05:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a Danish joke.

One of our major beer brands - Carlsberg - has the slogan "possibly the best beer in the world" (it isn't by a long shot, but that's an aside).

The parody almost writes itself...

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 06:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Possibly the best beer in the world"?  God, I thought it was absolute garbage.  It made Budweiser seem almost decent by comparison.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 07:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not entirely fair. It's drinkable if there's nothing else around.

Now, the stuff you want to look out for is Harboe and Ceres Royal. There isn't always a direct relation between price and quality, but any beer that costs less than the deposit for the bottle should be given a wide berth.

And you have to give them that it's a good slogan.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 02:59:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is clever as all get out.

The set-up is a Budweiser commercial:

and then the follow-up:



Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 09:00:56 PM EST
That was killer.  Definitely going viral.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Oct 24th, 2008 at 09:24:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow - that was good - is it an "official" Obama commercial or someone having a laugh?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 07:51:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pretty sure it's not official.  Just someone with an interesting ad idea.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 08:33:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
S'funny how a word like 'change' can release creativity - finding ways of doing things differently. S'all about hope anyway. I remember the feeling of 64 - Beatles, Stones, Pop Art, Biba, dope, the mini moke - change was happening. Something was in the air.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 09:04:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
S'all about hope anyway.

My friends, hope ain't shit.

</mccain>

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 09:28:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How little he understands hoomans...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 10:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Produced by 60frames

We work with really talented artists to create really awesome, original internet programming. Check back with us often for new shows, episodes and updates. You can also see our shows - including exclusive premieres - through the 60Frames syndication network.

I don't think it was an 'official' Obama advertisement.  In my viewing experience political ads aren't that clever, understated, or intelligent.  The zing comes in the last 10 seconds and political people don't have the patience, or good sense, to make a soft sell like that.  

The genius was getting the original actors and then closely following the original ad script with a twist.  

Either the actors wanted to do this pro-Obama ad or someone with a lot of bucks wanted to do it.  My guess is we're looking at a $20k budget, but others around here would be able to give a better estimate.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 10:45:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Obama wanted to have a sort of ad break in his 30 programme - for the low span attention types y'know - he could do worse than air it - once - to add some humour.

I'm amazed even at the original ad - why would Budweiser want to brand their product in this way?

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 11:46:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm amazed even at the original ad - why would Budweiser want to brand their product in this way?

Jonathan loves both ads - but he's six!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 04:12:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could certainly be done on hi-def video for 20K - for the cast, locations, crew and post production, especially if all the people involved have a reason to take less than scale.

I would presume that 60f, with a core business idea in network and viral marketing, would regard these sort of productions as calling cards. And here it worked! We now both know about 60f ;-)

There's a funny rule of thumb used in marketing: 8 cents a nose. ie, if you spent 20.000 bucks on advertising/marketing, you'd expect to hit 250.000 prime profiled targets (those that could bring business).

The 20 million non-target audience that might see the video on youtube, are not important as potential customers - but they are proof that the 60f  creativity can reach a wide audience. Which is why a few of the 250,000 prime viewers will reach for their phone and call 60f. Any resulting ad would bring in way more than their 20K investment.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 11:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brilliant

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Oct 25th, 2008 at 12:02:34 PM EST
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