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by talos
Chris Cook describes the recent developments in Iceland in his latest diary. Here I would like to highlight a few things leading to the disaster.
...It transpires that Milton Friedman visited Iceland in the 1980s and made quite an impression there. There's even a relevant lemma in Wikipedia, where it is explained that:
Friedman made a great impact on a group of young intellectuals in the Independence Party, including Davíð Oddsson who became Prime Minister in 1991 and began a radical program of monetary and fiscal stabilization, privatization, tax rate reduction... definition of exclusive use rights in fisheries, abolition of various government funds for aiding unprofitable enterprises and liberalization of currency transfers and capital markets. In 1975, Iceland had the 53rd freest economy in the world, while in 2004, it had the 9th freest economy, according to the Economic Freedom of the World index designed by Canada's Fraser Institute. David Oddson would later describe the influence of Friedman's ideas in a 2004 talk he gave at the American Enterprise Institute, the US neo-con think tank. Promoted by Colman
Oddson was singing the praises of Iceland's economic performance, giving props to Milton F. as the inspiration behind his government's reforms, and in hindsight, describing in detail the policies that led to disaster:
Politicians who lack clear political vision tend to go astray when there are many complex questions to ponder. He then goes on to gloat about the success of bank privatization:
I am convinced... that it would not have been appropriate to sell off the state-owned commercial banks at an early stage. The nation needed to have reached a broad understanding that it was advisable for the state to release its grip on this important market. The point has now been reached where the state has withdrawn completely from operations of financial companies, apart from housing loans, and the Icelandic financial market is much stronger as a result. Banks are now more capable of backing Icelandic business and have been expanding overseas on a growing scale. This is a very positive development which shows beyond all doubt the enormous force unleashed when the state entrusts individuals with freedom of action. Here is an interview Friedman gave on Icelandic TV in the 1980s.
(If the embed doesn't work for you, here is the direct link)..
This paper discusses monetary and exchange rate policy and the financial risks that are involved for small open economies in the current environment of less restricted and increased volume of global capital movements. It then goes on to analyze the policy interventions that are available to reduce and manage these risks. The specific case of Iceland is discussed within this framework. While it might be preferable if the problems posed by global financial instability are addressed by reforms in the global financial architecture, significant reforms are not likely to emerge in the near future. In the meanwhile, countries such as Iceland must take responsibility for their own welfare by managing these risks. That entails actions that reduce the likelihood of a crisis occurring and that reduce the costs incurred when the crisis occurs. Tax and regulatory policies (including financial sector regulation and disclosure regulation) can and should be used both to reduce the likelihood of a crisis and to help manage the economy through a crisis. Such regulations can affect short-term capital flows, which have been at the center of recent crises. There are arguments for the use of price-based interventions and controls imposed through prudential banking regulations. But reducing the risks faced by a country requires even more extensive action: it entails focusing on appropriate bankruptcy codes, exchange rate regimes, and designs of financial systems. This however was the sort of discourse dismissed by the reigning Friedmanites, that might have averted the worst of the crisis. Of course some people in Iceland as well (the Left-wingers Oddson denounces in his speech) were actively opposing this but to no great avail. Steingrímur J. Sigfússon chairman of the Icelandic Left-Green movement, recently wrote about the policies that were already underway as Oddson spoke at the AEI:
In the years 2003-2004, government-supported projects of heavy industry investments in aluminum smelters and big hydro-electrical and geothermal power plants set off inflation and increased overheating pressures. This was followed by tax reductions, benefiting mostly the high-income classes and owners of big estates and capital. This, of course, added to the increasing inflation. The housing market was booming and there was also mismanagement in that area. On top of all this, the financial sector, based on newly privatized banks and investment funds, expanded very rapidly and bought up subsidiaries overseas that expanded to big operations in the UK, Scandinavia, Continental Europe, and even in the US. (Both the AEI talk and the Stiglitz paper were via Toby Sanger's article in AlterNet, which has a great recap of the situation). I hope our Nordic contingent might be able to add more regarding the popular attitudes that allowed the crisis and the effect of the crisis in everyday life. Anyway it's always useful, even now, to be able to point out the kind of ideoleptic nonsense behind this collapse - especially in a forum such as EuroTrib that was yelling and shouting about the precipice the whole world economy was being driven to by Friedman's evil minions the world over. |
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Iceland - Friedman's folly | 34 comments (34 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Iceland - Friedman's folly | 34 comments (34 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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