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Wednesday Open Thread

by Jerome a Paris
Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:23:41 AM EST


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Anyone in Madrid?

José Manuel Ballester has a new exhibition in which he has reworked paintings in the Prado, including Bosch's Garden of Earthly Delights, removing all the people. Slideshow at the link.

Right, his "enhanced" version of Vermeer's The Artist's Studio.

(h/t Fogonazos)




by melvin on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:37:34 AM EST
Ryanair boss sets sights on no-frills transatlantic flights with new airline | Business | The Guardian

Passengers could be taking budget flights between the US and Europe on a Ryanair-backed airline in less than three years, the low-cost carrier's chief executive claimed yesterday.

Michael O'Leary said plans to launch a no-frills transatlantic service had been bolstered by an industry downturn that could slash the cost of long-haul aircraft as rivals go bust or orders are cancelled.

The carrier would operate from up to nine bases on each side of the Atlantic, with Stansted, Frankfurt-Hahn and Rome-Fiumicino among the candidates for European hubs. Islip airport on Long Island is mooted as a New York base.

O'Leary said the airline could be launched 18 months after acquiring a new fleet next year. "There may be an opportunity to pick up cheap long-haul aircraft next year, in which case we might launch a low-cost, long-haul programme in two-and-a-half years," O'Leary said.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:39:26 AM EST
Jeez. It's uncomfortable enough sitting on one of his planes for a couple of hours. I can't imagine doing it for 10 or so.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:13:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The recorded announcement "we've landed safely and on time at airport X" complete with canned applause freaks me out.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:18:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He thinks people are going to continue flying no matter what.

He's probably right "no frills" is going to do better than higher-end airlines in a recession, but long-term...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:30:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
corporations will always be able to pay 1,000-3,000 for plane tickets and business travel will not be killed by a 500 surcharge per flight.

Tourism, no-frills flights with prices at 100-500 will fare differently with such a surcharge.

(use the currency of your choice)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:45:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, the business-class segment will survive. Are you saying the business class will provide a subsidy for the expensive airlines to bead no-frills at the tourist-class game? That sounds possible.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They suggest that to some degree at the bottom of the article:

Ryanair boss sets sights on no-frills transatlantic flights with new airline | Business | The Guardian

Andrew Lobbenberg, analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland, warned that cheap fares between Europe and the US were available on traditional carriers such as British Airways and Air France-KLM, part-subsidised by the steep ticket prices levied on business customers.

"Long-haul fares are often quite cheap in economy - in part because they are subsidised by people in the front [of the aircraft]. It's not going to get consumers anything like as excited as low-cost short-haul," said Lobbenberg.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:52:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's time to start thinking outside the box for the airline industry. Why even have seats?

Why not stacked three level beds? You could get huge numbers of people into a single plane.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:07:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not stacked three level beds?

Because you'd need good christian republicans patrolling then to make sure no rudeness happened that much closer to the sight of god.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:12:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

Thinking of it, you could save even more money by sharing bed with someone, just one ticket for two people!

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just pile people on top of each other and call it The Flying Cluster-Fuck™.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:52:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That reminds me of this graffiti back in 1968:

"Aimez-vous les uns sur les autres"...

"Ne te courbe que pour aimer..." René Char

by Melanchthon on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I seriously think this is a good idea. With twice as many people on the plane, prices can be cut in half. That means a lot when your fuel bill starts inflating.

A lot of especially young people are ready to stand all kinds of discomforts to save some money on travelling.

For example, I once spent an entire night sleeping on the stone floor of Luton airport (no freaking benches!) waiting for a cheap flight to Marseille... just to save €50 on the ticket price.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Three business-only airlines - Eos, Maxjet, and Silverjet - filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. So I'm not sure how profitable the business market really is. First Class must be profitable, but there's a natural limit on the number of customers who can afford it - and some of those who can will have their own private jets anyway.

Ryan is naturally aiming for the cattle class market, but I don't think it's going to work. Prices would have to be incredibly low - under £100 - to make people want to give up the small comforts they need on an extended flight.

It might be viable with the usual local subsidies scam, but what are the chances of that working now?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
of the cheap business class airline is not really that of the main airlines.

I don't take Air France because it's cheaper; I take it because I know I can take a flight two hours before or two hours later, or the next day instead of the one I booked.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:38:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have a clue how they can do it safely. Either those big guys are robbing us or those no frills are losing money (???).It's a huge difference in price to be explained with that little food or few extra staff...
Look what is happening with Qantas. Too often now they report some trouble with a plane in news. In order to save money they do not want to pay engineers to check the plane properly.They moved service in Asia.
I'll have to spend 28 hours in air next year when I visit Europe and to put it plainly I am scared as hell. It's always not pleasant trip but after all I hear lately about planes and companies...
by vbo on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:34:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The no-frills are subsidised by the local governments of the places they fly to.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:37:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the early 1950s my grandparents, who were fairly well off (manager class), took a once-in-a-lifetime trip to Europe. They took the train from Colorado to NYC, then a ship (Queen Mary, maybe?) to London. They spent six weeks visiting England and France, particularly the places where my grandfather's WW-I army experiences had taken him. Then they came home.

My daughter and her London-based friend hop back and forth across the pond by airplane at a moment's notice to visit each other--and they are broke graduate students.

I suspect that there is a mid-point between these two extremes that we will eventually settle on...

by asdf on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 11:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The cartoon at the top is from this week's Canard Enchainé. Only their front page is online (here for this week's)

Here's another one:


Sarkozy: if we're to panic, we must panic together!
(I love the way Berlusconi is drawn)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:44:38 AM EST
this is my favorite.

Check out the detail.

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman

by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:55:08 AM EST
i hate to be pessimistic, but i get afraider and afraider that this is what a lot more of the world is going to look like in the coming years.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:58:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You seem to be losing your natural optimism, marco. That's not good. You're living in a land of opportunity... hope is essential for progress.

(Why am I writing this? Trying to convince myself I'd bet!)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:01:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:07:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's wrong with the a "Don't Panic" towel ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:14:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Have you seen the Dads army/MI5 colour coded terror threat level

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:21:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On Her Majesty's Semiotic Service.

Licensed to blog.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:14:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, and John McCain will win, despite what the polls may say.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And then he'll have a medical emergency and we'll have the first woman president: Sarah Palin!
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:56:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but sh'll look so good in mourning for the hero president who didn't survive his own election night celebration.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 11:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by vbo on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:50:02 AM EST
((*youtube GEtZlR3zp4c)) without the asterisk




A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:52:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can someone explain how the "trend" in this image follows from the actual data points?

Also note that according to the IMF projections in their World Economic Outlook, growth is supposed to pick up in no time while oil prices and food prices are supposed to keep dropping.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 11:17:39 AM EST
The trend is too god for mere GDP numbers. Is it just me or are they claiming that gdp growth will increase this year compared to last? Now that is a courageous estimate.
by Trond Ove on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 11:27:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd assume it's some kind of rolling average, and the low columns gradually rising lead to that effect.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:03:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes but is a linear (not even that) trend meaningful in this case?
Anyway the actual imf publication explains the trend pattern thus:
Average growth rates for individual countries, aggregated using PPP weights; the aggregates shift over time in favor of faster-growing economies, giving the line an upward trend.


The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:33:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Volvo slashes 3,300 jobs

Volvo cars has announced plans to lay off more than 3,000 staff, including 2,000 factory workers and 700 office workers in Sweden.
The beleaguered Swedish car maker, a unit of US auto giant Ford, previously announced 2,900 cuts earlier this year.

Making unsellable oversized cars when the storm of the century hits is not a good thing.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:11:29 PM EST
Formula One cars will have the grooves in their tyres painted green in this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix to promote an environmental campaign.

Governing body the FIA is attempting to reduce the impact of motoring on the environment through a promotion called "Make Cars Green".

The campaign is backed by leading F1 teams such as McLaren and Ferrari.

"The campaigns help to show us we can all drive in a greener way," said championship leader Lewis Hamilton.


Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:18:11 PM EST
The missing Link

dont copy from the wrong browser without tibext, you dont get working links and quotes

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Europeans Put Hope In Farseeing Banker
Trichet May Cut Continent's Interest Rate
By Craig Whitlock, Washington Post

With European lawmakers still bickering over how to respond to a string of bank failures and a fading economy, expectations are rising that a clairvoyant French banker will come to the rescue.

Bickering, heh. Unfortunately the "clairvoyant French banker" isn't Jerome. Nope, it's...

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, has been playing a key behind-the-scenes role in recent days as elected leaders and finance ministers from across the 27-nation European Union have held emergency meetings to deal with the credit crisis. Although politicians have struggled to present a united front, analysts said odds were high that Trichet will intervene soon with a cut in interest rates -- something that his bank hasn't done in more than five years.

Easy money!

Trichet had warned of big troubles looming in the banking sector and, unlike many European leaders, had predicted that local banks were vulnerable to the collapse in subprime loans plaguing the U.S. market. "We have to look very carefully at the business model of banks," he warned last January.

Trichet, however, has also consistently resisted political pressure to cut rates and has fiercely defended the independence of the European Central Bank, which was created nearly a decade ago to oversee the creation of the euro as the continent's common currency.

Unlike the Federal Reserve, which is also legally bound to fight unemployment by stimulating growth with low rates, the European Central Bank has a single mission: to maintain price stability by keeping inflation low.

by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:31:12 PM EST
I'm sorry.  Did the people planning to take over my country just debate whether or not Russia is an Evil Empire?  They debated that?  That wasn't a made-up question?  That wasn't an SNL skit?  My country is falling apart before everyone's eyes, and our leaders are discussing how evil Vladimir Putin is, like, on a scale from 1-10?  Really?  Tom Brokaw actually asked that?  Not, "Should Russia have entered Georgia?"  Not, "Describe your plan for relations with Russia,"?  But, "Do you think Russia is, like, evil?"  That was the question?  I am asking because I don't think I can come out from under the covers until some reassures me it was just a bad dream I had.  Help.

Hey Tom, why don't we try to drown Putin and see if he floats?!
 

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."

by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:47:05 PM EST
Well Osama bin Laden is not working so well as the bogeyman anymore, so Brokaw pulled out what he knows: the Cold War.

Brokaw is inept. I think his ineptness was best demonstrated by his teleprompter whine at the end of the debate.

That concludes tonight's debate from here in Nashville. We want to thank our hosts here at Belmont University in Nashville and the Commission on Presidential Debates. And you're in my way of my script there, if you will move.

One of the biggest problems facing the United States these days is no one wants to invade us anymore. Without a bogeyman, how can we justify spending so much on our nation's war machine?

by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:10:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brokaw made a complete ass of himself last night.  I'm sorry, but I am pretty sure people tuned in to hear the candidates speak, not him.  It was supposed to be a town hall event, but he was asking the questions.  Giving people 1 or 2 minutes to describe their entire tax plan is absurd, and then to publicly reprimand them like children when they would go a few seconds over just looked tacky.  It turned into the Tom Brokaw Show.  The townspeople actually asked very good questions, I thought.  Then Tom ends with this Evil Empire bs.  It was just the icing on the cake when he told the candidates to get out of the way so he can see his teleprompter.  The debate was a snore, but Brokaw clearly considered himself the main attraction.  Also, he seems rather unclear on the fact that Medvedev is the Russian President.

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."
by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Americans have been told that Medvedev is a puppet of Putin and most will not and do not question this assessment.

McCain's rant last night that Putin is ex-KGB is part of this. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Rice seemed determined to piss off Russia since before Bush took office in 2001. The missile "defense" shield was the #1 priority of the Bush administration before being "gifted" with a terrorist attack in September 2001.

You know better than I, I suspect, how much of a non-started a U.S.-run missile "defense" shield on the backdoor of Russia annoyed the Russians. I believe there has been a calculated, concerted effort on behalf of the powers in Washington to jump start a second Cold War.

The sad part is, for me, that Obama seems to buy into this plan, in part.

by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:34:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The sad part is, for me, that Obama seems to buy into this plan, in part.

I suppose one is only as good as one's advisors, and Obama's advisors include Cold Warrior hawk Zbigniew Brzezinski and Michael McFaul, who sits on the board of Freedom House (which the Kremlin is convinced is a nest of Russophobic spies) and who has some weird personal vendetta against Vladimir Putin, which you can read about here.  

As much as I hate to say it, there are logical reasons Russia used to prefer Republican U.S. Administrations.  (At this point, I think the Kremlin has just given up hope of any sanity coming out of Washington, regardless the party in charge, though I hear Obama is popular among the Russian kids.)

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."

by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:04:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Completely agreed, although I'm not too concerned about it.  The next few years in America are going to center on the economy.  This is the largest banking crisis since the Depression, and that will dominate every aspect of our lives for the foreseeable future (thank God).

I don't even understand why the question was asked.  I'll bet you 99% of the US population wouldn't be able to find Georgia on a map.  (Hell, I'll bet you a buck that 70% can't find the state of Georgia on a map in this country.)

It's bullshit, but fortunately I think it's now off the table given that the last debate is on the economy.  I doubt very much we're going to hear much about Russia for the next four years.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anything that Obama has said to this point is null and void as soon as he wins the election.  Start taking notes once the electoral votes are in.  Then it's real.  For now, he will say what he has to, to get elected.

A lot of clues from whom he chooses for his cabinet, still, after he's elected.

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman

by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well Osama bin Laden is not working so well as the bogeyman anymore

perhaps they should mail him some new batteries for his tape recorder, If they do he might just be able to get his traditional pre-election message in on time

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 06:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't find a youtube yet:

Obama, McCain refuse to call Russia 'evil empire' - Yahoo! News

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (AFP) - White House candidates Barack Obama and John McCain on Tuesday refused to call Russia an "evil empire" but nevertheless criticized Moscow's military actions in Georgia.

ADVERTISEMENT

During the second of three televised debates ahead of the November 4 election, the two were asked about former president Ronald Reagan's characterization of the former Soviet Union in 1983 as the "evil empire."

"Ronald Reagan said that the Soviet Union was the evil empire. Do you think that Russia under (Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin is the evil empire?" asked the moderator, journalist Tom Brokaw.

"I think they are engaged in an evil behavior," answered Obama. "We must understand that they are not the old Soviet Union, but they still have nationalist impulses that are very dangerous."

His Republican rival answered: "Maybe. It depends on how we respond to Russia. It depends on a lot of things.

"If I say yes, that means that we are reigniting the old Cold War. If I say no, it is ignoring their behavior."

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tom:  Russia under Putin is not precisely.  Poor Dima.  He's Mr. Cellophane.

Barack:  We have nationalist impulses too.  Or did I hallucinate where you two said America is the greatest country in the history of mankind?

John:  Would that also be your answer if asked if you thought America was an Evil Empire?  Or does your capacity for nuance extend no further than US borders?

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."

by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:44:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'America is the greatest country in the history of mankind'

I wonder, what country is/was the greatest in history? And why?

by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Define "greatest"

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Define "evil."

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."
by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Define "PANCAKES".

...oh, wait, I get the game now....

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:12:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It can be defined in many ways, depending on which qualities a person values. The definition itself is partially what makes this an interesting exercise to me.

Or, is the point no country is the greatest because it depends on the definition. I think that is fine, but I think it deliberately misses the point. Oh well.

 

Rightly or wrongly, most Americans are taught to believe they live in the greatest country in the world. I'm not sure how to undo this mindset or if it is even beneficial to do so. America likes to believe its own myths. And I believe the 'myth' of American greatness must be harnessed by American leaders to navigate the country out of the current black hole it is falling in to. I know it is likely annoying or insulting, but it is certainly American to think America is the greatest.

by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know it is likely annoying or insulting, but it is certainly American to think America is the b
greatest.

Believing that one was living in the greatest nation in the world was the norm all over Europe in the years leading up to World War 1. Then things went kind of bad...

American patriotism isn't really exceptional. Just very, very old-fashioned.

by Trond Ove on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And very, very stupid.  It's a way to mind-control people.  Idiots fall for it all the time.

"We're better than you!  Blah Blah Blah!"  Until they starve.

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman

by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Believing that one was living in the greatest nation in the world was the norm all over Europe in the years leading up to World War 1. Then things went kind of bad...

American patriotism isn't really exceptional. Just very, very old-fashioned.

To the extent that we're indoctrinated in this way, it's not as all consuming as it was in early 20th century Europe. A lot of it depends on where you live as well. Unsurprisingly, it's far more common in conservative leaning communities. I got it a lot at church. I didn't get any of it in public school.

It also differs from Europe, even today. In Europe nationalism runs approximately "we're the best because we're nation x" whereas in America it's "we're the best for reasons x, y, and z" where x, y, and z are not completely connected to ethnicity and culture. The latter is more prone to self-reflection, although with modern propaganda the reality about x, y, and z is often easy to hide.

Personal anecdote that I've mentioned here before - even in the Lutheran school I attended until I was 12 years old, we were taught that schools in Europe were much better. The poor rankings of American schoolchildren vs. other industrialized nations were known to me at a young age. When I was 16, I went to Germany for two weeks with my German language class. During a week long family stay, we spent a few afternoons at the local school in the middle class city we were in. My public school was a little bit above average for the US, so I was expecting some impressive students and facilities. It turned out to be the opposite - the school reminded me of an inner city American school without the violence and cultural dissaffection. The facilities were poorly kept and the students had zero interest in learning. The teachers simply talked over students who were paying no attention. Music class amounted to listening to CDs. It was an interesting myth-breaking experience.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It also differs from Europe, even today. In Europe nationalism runs approximately "we're the best because we're nation x" whereas in America it's "we're the best for reasons x, y, and z" where x, y, and z are not completely connected to ethnicity and culture.

I don't believe you are correct here. I agree with the ethnicity part, which is at least not mentioned explicitly in the States. But cultural exceptionalism is stronger in the US than in most european countries.

And garden variety patriotism in Europe is indeed all about "we're the best because of...". Only the rabid nationalists explicitly talk about culture or race. Just like in America.

by Trond Ove on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 04:58:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with MillMan.

There are two kinds of nationalisms (even if cataloguing like this is Platonism and reducing the complexity of the world, thus losing information... IE, this is not true, but a pedagogic lie).

First you have the normal one. Based on culture and ethnicity. All over the place. Might not be bad, as long as it doesn't turn aggresive.

Then we have the other one, based on ideology and values. We have it in the USA, France and the old Soviet Union.

These are often more dangerous as the nations feel they have a creed or ideology to spread, a mission civilicatrice.

But as I said above, nothing is as clear cut as this. Soviet nationalism was also based on Russian imperialism, the American variety have strong WASP elements and French republicanism of course also have ethnic markers. But it's still very different from the view in Germany or Sweden (even if the Swedish elites are much closer to the French view).


Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 07:51:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I tend to consider civic nationalism more benign than ethnic nationalism because it is potentially more inclusive. Ethnicity is an unsurmountable barrier to citizenship.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 07:59:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess that's the other side of the coin. Ethnic nationalism can't be spread, you only can kill everyone on the other side of the border and steal their stuff. And as long as people stop thinking that's okay, nationalism won't be too bad.

Civic nationalism though... That can still be used as a cover for armed robbery on a geopolitical scale, to spread "democracy" or promote "womens rights" and so on.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 10:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with what you are saying here. I guess I just didn't read what you are saying into what he was saying.
by Trond Ove on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 11:50:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"I think they are engaged in an evil behavior," answered Obama.

WTF? Evil?

Objectionable, illegal if you must, but evil???

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:38:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i just watched the debate, and that was the moment obama looked most ambivalent and undecided...

it was a loaded, dumbfuck question, but i was a bit disappointed with the reply.

i would have liked for him to laugh and say how inappropriate the use of the medieval word 'evil' to describe a whole country in such a jejune, blanket way. then i would have liked him to say how russia, like america, is trying to pursue its interests, and show some respect for how they are back, and not the failed state reagan so idiotically condemned with his foolish comment.

obama fell fully into brokaw's stupid frame, too bad...

the only time mccain showed more shrewdness during the debate was when he aced that same question, saying 'maybe', thereby keeping his base, while not falling into a simple binary trap, as obvious a gotcha question as the old saw 'when did you stop beating your wife?'

for the most part obama filled the presidential shoes better than mccain, whose clenched body language and rigid, robotic moves set off obama's easy fluidity by contrast.

obama has a spacey edge quite often, with the long 'er's' and 'ums' before getting his stride, leaving one hanging a few milliseconds...will he fluff it or not?

the only slip i caught was when he was talking about the opportunity america gave him to go to the world's best schools even though he was poor, when he said 'country' when he meant 'world'.

very minor PN... totally harmless.

when i think he's been campaigning for 2 years pretty much non-stop, the stamina and sang-froid obama's exhibiting in this pressure-cooker election are as stellar an example of 'grace under pressure' i've ever seen.
mccain doesn't even come close as presidential material, tho' for such an old coot, he's doing a better job than i would have expected, frankly. unfortunately the fact that he's not as braindead as gwb is not entirely reassuring, as mccain has an even scarier form of fanaticism glittering in his eyes, replacing gwb's puzzled, beyond-clueless stare.

he's a lot less crusader-for-jesus-fake-redeemed sinner, but a fuck of a lot more militaristic for the whole sick edgy thrill.

many of us mention how much we think obama might do a sudden change after inauguration...i wonder if mccain might too, if 'selected', turning away from gwb's coattails and carving a new form of more bipartisan republicanism, less lobbyist- and earmark-influenced.

only a very faint hope, that, very audacious...

...especially considering his fawning fondness for the nuclear power solution for america's energy independence, where sounded really moronic, with his 'happy voice' on, exhorting his countrymen to cover the land with nuke-plants and the shores with drilling platforms with the same jolly tone a leader might use promising his people a plethora of fairs and festivals for their endless edification and entertainment.

whoopee! a 3-mile island on every skyline!

dead, oily pelicans on every beach...

this is the change he's offering, this is the great vision he's humping the leg of power to attain, and it's a sorry sight, once i move out of 'detached observer' mode...

sorry for the ramble...

Peace is not the absence of war -- peace is the absence of fear. Ursula Franklin

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
many of us mention how much we think obama might do a sudden change after inauguration

I really hope not, he's too centrist already. Not unless you share the dKossack believuh mythology that the Change he offers is the one they want and will tack left.

Fat chance of that !! At what point in the last two years has Obama given any of us reason to believe he is anything other than a Beltway centrist who will attempt to do exactly the things he has promised ? Things which bear no relation to the sort of liberal/progressive initiatives people bafflingly attach to his platform.

In european terms he's a conservative. The only place on earth where he might be confused with being a liberal/progressive is exactly where he is, but that doesn't make him one and we here shouldn't fall into the belief that he might be one.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the repubs and their MSM enablers are afraid of Putin because he upstages them so easily. McCain, Palin, Bush et.al. put a lot of effort into talking tough and acting hard, and it must frighten them to their phonybaloney core when they are faced with somebody like Putin who is the real thing.

"Ideas or the lack of them can cause disease." - Kurt Vonnegut
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:45:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno. Does invading a sovereign country for no reason at all count as evil ? Does invading a basket case country and then continuing to kill its population while pursuing your own objectives in stirring up probelms in at least 2 bordering countries count as evil ? Does breaking the nuclear proliferation treaty count as evil ? Does kidnapping and torturing men even your own judiciary consider to be innocent count as evil

I could go on, but listing the perfidy of the Bush regime gets bloody boring and repetitive in these situations.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 01:59:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brokaw is an asshole, but he wasn't nearly as bad as I'd feared.  He really pissed me off last night anyway.  Not once did he ever call McCain on the going over time.  Always Obama.  You could almost see the erection he had for Gramps behind his desk, for fuck's sake.

If we were going to have an NBC guy do it, where the fuck was Brian Williams?

Jim Lehrer was absolutely phenomenal, in my opinion, and he should moderate every debate from now on even if we have to hook him up to some machine to keep him alive for eternity.  I routinely forgot he was there when I watched the re-runs, and that's precisely how a moderator should come off.

Ifill was a chickenshit with Caribou Barbie, just as she was four years ago with Cheney, and Brokaw was as incompetent as he is ancient.

I know Russia is your thing, so that grabbed your attention.  I, frankly, fail to see why Russia should even be a concern to us right now with all the crap we have to deal with.  Unless they invade the state of Georgia, I really don't give a shit.

Not to say we shouldn't try to make decent relations with Russia.  Of course we should.  As I've said, I actually admire the realist perspective that seems to dominate Russian foreign policy under Putin and Medvedev.  But Georgia -- and no offense to its people with this -- really isn't important to our national interests.  And the fact that we have to go through this obligatory tough-talkin' bullshit by bringing it up is nauseating.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:10:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I totally agree.  Of all the crisis facing American right now, you ask if they think Russia is an evil empire?  Are you serious?  

The actual attendees asked good questions.  I really appeciated the question, "Do you think healthcare should be treated like a commodity?"  I'm annoyed Obama didn't give a straight answer to that until Brokaw re-asked the question.

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."

by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I completely agree.  I think the folks in Nashville asked fantastic question that got deep into matters of philosophy and policy.  The question on health care as a commodity was an excellent one, even if they didn't answer it.  The question of whether health care was a right, privilege or responsibility was an excellent one to.  That's the kind of stuff I want to hear in debates:  Answers to the question, "Where are you coming from, ideologically?"

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:23:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The premise of the question was retarded as well.  "Is Russia an Evil Empire?"  I didn't realize Russia was an empire to begin with.  We're more than twice the size of Russia, in terms of population.  We produce almost seven times its size on GDP.

Again, as with Iran, I have to ask: WTF?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll be hosting the firedoglake salon on DeVine's book on Putin this Saturday.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:42:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what do WE do to promote you/ET?  Serious question.

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sheesh.  Looks like an uplifting read...  Have fun.

"This is nothing compared to how Putin rigged Eurovision."
by poemless on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The answer to all your questions is:

Precisely

This has been the first edition of easy answers to difficult question a-la-atrios with a John-financial adviser touch.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:34:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Politics | Councils' Iceland deposits fears

The Tories and Lib Dems are urging ministers to "clear up the uncertainty" about hundreds of millions of pounds councils invested in Iceland's banks.

Chancellor Alistair Darling has protected Britons' savings in banks which are now in default.

But at least 20 councils in England and Wales are known to have deposits in Landsbanki - some of tens of millions.

The BBC has learned that Kent County Council alone has £50m in Iceland- based banks.

For the Tories, Eric Pickles said local government finances were at risk as they were not covered by the guarantee.

The Local Government Association (LGA), which represents councils in England and Wales, says it has identified more than 20 councils which are believed to have deposits in Landbanksi or Heritable, which was run by Landbanksi.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:00:18 PM EST
I hate to get basic here but ....

Light bulbs.  Where are the factories making light bulbs?  Are they all in Communist China?  If China gets pissed off at US for ANY reason and they stop shipping us light bulbs, do we use up what store we have in warehouses and then the lights go out?  And that's just one example.

You can't throw up a factory in a day or a week.  How vulnerable are we, finances aside?

Now go back to discussing "the Evil Umpire".

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman

by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:35:52 PM EST
According to this manufacturer, Lights Of America, they are "the only American manufacturer of Twister®-style compact fluorescent bulbs."
by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:47:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect that that should be Walnut GROVE, CA, not Walnut.  Maybe there IS a Walnut, CA.

OK, MY lights will stay on; Walnut Grove is just down I-80 west of here.  How about the rest of you?

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman

by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is part of greater Los Angeles. Here it is on Google Maps.
by Magnifico on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 02:59:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank You.  I learn something valuable at ET every day.

Welcome to ET, Paul Krugman
by THE Twank (paszeski__aaaaaaatttttt__yahoo.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 03:13:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've got a pile of screw fit lightbulbs, if you need a care package (somebody brought me the wrong type)

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 06:36:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EuroIntelligence.com: THE DEPRESSION OF 2009(October 6, 2008)
Financial crises do not automatically produce recessions or depressions. Only bad policy cab turn a crisis into a catastrophe. The 1930 Great Depression could have been avoided if governments had not pursued pro-cyclical policies, and most important, if central banks had not allowed deflation.  We have learned from those mistakes, but are committing new and possibly bigger ones. Government is our one and only safety net. It could, if it wanted to, provide basic financial services, that could easily fulfil three economic functions that are attributed to finance: to provide liquidity, to share risk, and to allow agents in the economy to make inter-temporal choices. You don't need CDOs and CDSs for that. A network of central bank branch offices, in combinations with a relatively small number of national, or nationalised banks, could temporarily offer the vast bulk of all financial service of wider economic relevance. The way to go is to shrink the financial system and nationalise the systemically important financial institutions. I have heard there are about 45-50 in the euro area though this is not a precise guess, and subject to change over time. After the financial sector is stabilised, it is time to rebuilt the system, to allow the government later re-privatise its assets, ideally subject to different incentive structures than those that have led to this crisis. In theory, governments could even make money on it. I doubt it. But at the very least, governments can minimise losses.
(h/t to Metatone who's procrastinating badly)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:16:56 PM EST
Metatone does not procrastinate badly.  He does not even procrastinate goodly, though the clueless managers of Suzlon are waiting.  Or is the ball in my court?

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Argh! The ball is in my court, unfortunately since I came back from Paris I've been bogged down in another matter I had on my plate, which expanded unexpectedly in scope.

I should be sending you some serious email after the weekend.

A further question: I'll be in Germany a fair bit in Nov, schedule is not yet confirmed, but it's looking that I'd probably have some time in either w/c 10th or in the period from 22nd - 25th. Are you in country? Should we attempt to converge at some point?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, lts tk it prvt.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Off topic: did you get my e-mail?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sent

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Got it, thanks.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:38:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The guy is optimistic: I've been calling it the Great Depression of the 2010's. I doubt the financial crisis itself will be over before the end of 2009.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last big heap of toxic Alt-A loans resets in 2010, according to Calculated Risk. So I would expect the last big financial shakeup then. Unless they manage to actually predict the effects. beforehand this time.
by Trond Ove on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 05:49:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This crisis is about much, much more than mortgage lending...

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 08:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Doom is Nigh!
by Trond Ove on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:32:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was wondering what the hell was going on on Intrade.  Suddenly Obama jumped from about 73% to win to about 77% to win.

I think I may know why.  McCain, we find today, is taking a supplement used for Alzheimer's and dementia patients.

Coupled, as others note, with the fact that he referred to his audience today as his "fellow prisoners" rather than "fellow citizens," along with numerous other examples, this is not exactly reassuring.

If it becomes a massive story, I think we're done.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:20:17 PM EST
The diagnosis here was that he meant calling the audience "fellow prisoners," thus is not ill in the slightest, as we all know.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver has a win probability of 90.5% and 347EV.

I think after last night that's likely to hold steady.

It may even go up.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:46:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I expect it may well go up.  This was a pretty rubbish day of polling for Obama on the national trackers.  Nate's model only had him going up because McCain turned in such craptacular numbers on the state polls.

Aside from the Gallup poll, Obama went down in everything, although by such small amounts that I expect it's just noise (especially given the Gallup result).

I think something in between Gallup and Ras is generally the state of the race.  Ras says O+6, Gallup says O+11.  Call it O+8.5.  Ras says Dems have a +6 party ID advantage.  Gallup says it's about +10.  Doesn't seem way out in left field.

Keeping in mind, too, that today's polls don't include reaction to the debate.  If the snap polls were even in the ballpark, I expect Obama will go up.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:24:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at the UK betting market, having been crawling in both their respective directions, both  sets of odds have moved significantly in the last twelve hours, by about 10% Obama up, McCain Down.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 06:43:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm almost inclined to call the race now, because the new BIGGEST THING EVAH on the right-wing websites -- even at "respectable" places like National Review -- is to try to turn the fact that Obama pronounces "Pakistan" correctly into a campaign issue.  You see, it's "ostentatiously exotic" to do so.

The Right has officially become a joke.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 06:52:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at the intrade daily graphs, (and looking at the daily graphs for the last two debates, they've shown similar characteristics) would you say that the big spike McCainwards on the two graphs on that day look like an attempt to force a perception that McCain has one the debates and hopefully create some momentum for him? (it's snapped back afterwards so if the theory is true then it's not working). Or would you say its more likely that people are jumping in in the hope that the debate will push the  perception of the two campaigns in a different direction, so are an attempt to take profit?

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 06:58:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure, honestly.  Intrade is known by almost everyone who "does politics" in the states, so it wouldn't surprise me to find it a little bit of a messy market where people are buying into their own bad perceptions.  It's difficult to gauge how undecideds are going to respond to a candidate.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 07:33:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Intrade is a bit of a joke - although I suppose if you were smart and could be bothered you could make some money on it.

There's still a bizarre idea that 'markets' are 'right' about things just because they aggregate average perceptions. Or informed perceptions. Or something. And if people have to bet real money they'll be more careful about speculation than people who are just speculating.

Well. We know how well that worked elsewhere.

So all that Intrade gives you is the chance to bet for or against common wisdom. If anyone had uncommon insight they'd be swamped by the mooing herd there. So if you're looking for high quality predictions, as opposed to a lagging indicator which is reliably behind the polls and can be gamed by zealots, Intrade isn't anything more than a curiosity.

The famous Bush win prediction was within any realistic MOE. And allowing for a rather right-leaning client base, it was never that much of a surprise.

by