European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch - 22. November

by Fran
Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:48:05 PM EST

On this date in history:

1819 - Birth of George Eliot, an English novelist. She was one of the leading writers of the Victorian era. Her novels, largely set in provincial England, are well known for their realism and psychological perspicacity. (d. 1880)

More here and here


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EUROPE
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:48:38 PM EST
Europe a 'hobbled giant' by 2025, US intelligence report predicts - EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - By 2025, the European Union will be a "hobbled giant" crippled by internal bickering and a eurosceptic citizenry. Eastern European organised crime could dominate one or more member state governments, and the bloc will likely be kowtowing to Moscow after having failed at all attempts to wean itself from Russian energy supplies.

The EU will have completed its institutional reforms, but will remain weak on the world stage, warns the NIC

This is the rosy view for Europe's future mapped out by the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC), Washington's main intelligence body. This agency of agencies, formed in 1979, brings together analysis from each of America's multiple intelligence organisations to develop mid- to long-term strategic thinking for the country's security community.

Every four years, the NIC peers into its crystal ball and produces a global trends review - a prediction of what the world will look like in around 15 years' time.

This year's report, Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed, foresees the EU in 2025 as likely having completed its institutional reforms and consolidated itself as a political entity, but infighting between member states with competing domestic interests and a European public alienated by a perceived democratic deficit will leave it a "hobbled giant", with massive economic heft but little genuine international power.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU Will Be Globally Weak 'Hobbled Giant' by 2025: Report | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 21.11.2008
A new Global Trends report by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), Washington's main intelligence body, paints a bleak picture of the EU in 2025 with internal bickering, economic pressure and crime hobbling the bloc.

Europe will have completed its institutional reforms by 2025, but will remain weak on the world stage while the economic and political clout of the United States will decline, the spread of nuclear weapons and cyber-terrorism will emerge as the most potent global threats, and new wars are likely to be fought over water and food scarcity.

This is the bleak assessment of the NIC's 120-page "Global Trends 2025" report released on Thursday, Nov. 20. The report takes a long-term view of how key issues are likely to develop over the next few years.

According to the report, the European Union will be a "hobbled giant" crippled by internal bickering and a euroskeptic citizenry by 2025.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More first-rate analysis brought to you from the people who've been getting everything rightwrong for years.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:50:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

2020

Although the challenges ahead will be daunting, the United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues - economic, technological, political, and military - that no other state will match by 2020.  

(...)

The US economy will become more vulnerable to fluctuations in the fortunes of others as global commercial networking deepens.  US dependence on foreign oil supplies also makes it more vulnerable as the competition for secure access grows and the risks of supply side disruptions increase.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:17:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last NIC report four years ago promised that the US would continue to bestride the world like a colossus.

But it's a useful clue to the inner mood of the Beltway and its simmering pot of fears and prejudices.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Move over Eurabia! It Eurussia now.
Arab threat is sooo last year; the new bad guy speaks Russian; the Seventies are baaaack!
Wonder what they will come up with next?

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 05:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bernard: Wonder what they will come up with next?

The answer to that question is easy:  Euchina

Ce n'est pas un chef d'État européen qui unira l'Europe. Ce sont les Chinois. (de Gaulle?)

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:45:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't see that one coming, huh?  :)

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 03:49:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's what's on the NIC website:


Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:

  • The whole international system--as constructed following WWII--will be revolutionized. Not only will new players--Brazil, Russia, India and China-- have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
  • The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
  • Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources--particularly energy, food, and water--raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
  • The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:21:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ségolène Royal leads race to become French Socialist party leader | World news | guardian.co.uk

France's Socialist party will today hold a run-off vote for its next leader, as Ségolène Royal and Martine Aubry battle to become the first woman to head the biggest party on the French left.

In the initial vote yesterday, first place went to Royal, the former presidential candidate who is promising to modernise the troubled and divided party.

Despite a campaign by party heavyweights and members of the old guard, who dismissed Royal as a would-be messianic figure with a Joan of Arc complex, damaged by losing the last presidential election, she took 43% of the vote. But it was not a big enough majority to win outright.

Aubry, the mayor of Lille and architect of France's 35-hour week, came second with 34%. The MEP Benoit Hamon took 22% and was knocked out of the next round.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Europe | French Socialists in run-off vote

France's opposition Socialists face a run-off vote for a new leader, after a first ballot did not produce a winner.

The second vote on Friday, which comes amid bitter party rifts, pits former presidential candidate Segolene Royal against Lille Mayor Martine Aubry.

Leftist MEP Benoit Hamon is out of the race after coming third in Thursday's vote. None of the candidates gained the 50% needed to avoid a run-off vote.

The leadership issue is being decided by 233,000 party members.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't this a novum - two women in the end-race for leadership of a major party?

<snark> Could something like this happen in the US? </snark>

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:56:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't this actually significant and real?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Methinks the snark concerns the "could Obama happen in Europe?" meme.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes!
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If national elections in the US had a run-off component and were thus equipped to handle more than two "major" candidates in each election yes, this would be very possible.
by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This being the election of party leadership, it is more analogeuos to having two women as the last contenders in one of the US parties presidential primaries.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Nov 23rd, 2008 at 12:34:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Georgian President Demands NATO Membership Timetable | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 20.11.2008
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili demanded Thursday that his Caucasus republic be offered a timetable showing what it must do to qualify for membership in NATO.

Saakashvili was in Munich paying his first visit to Germany since his nation's war with Russia this summer.

"Not offering Georgia a plan of action leading to membership will send the wrong signal to the wrong people," he said.

Russia has strongly opposed Georgia being absorbed into NATO, insisting that the former Soviet republic is within its sphere of influence.

Timetables, or membership action plans, offer new entrants a transition period to reshape their military institutions to NATO standards. Both Georgia and Ukraine are believed to be on the cusp of receiving MAPs.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
French Prisons Threaten European Human Rights: Commissioner | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 20.11.2008
France's detention policies risk undermining Europe's standing on human rights, a European human rights commission report said Thursday.

Convicts serving time inside French prisons had to deal with overcrowding, a lack of privacy, dilapidated facilities and substandard hygiene, the Council of Europe's Human Rights Commissioner Thomas Hammarberg said in the report, which followed an inspection of the French detention system in May.

He said the fundamental rights of prisoners had to be respected and that France needed to come up with more effective solutions to these problems and, importantly, more funding, especially for inmates with mental disorders.

"Dangerousness, on the basis of which preventive detention is ordered, is not a clear legal or scientific concept," he said. "Harsh measures have to be applied in some circumstances in order to protect society, but their use should not become routine.

"They must remain the last resort and other recidivism prevention measures should be applied in the first instance."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:55:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are we meant to believe that France has worse prisons than say Romania?
by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:37:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It wouldn't amaze me...

French jails truly are horrible.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 07:45:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Commission green-lights industrialisation of Arctic - EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The rapidly melting Arctic is a bonanza of oil, gas, fish and mineral wealth waiting to be exploited - so long as it is done in a sustainable manner, the European Commission believes.

Faster transit routes, including the fabled Northwest Passage sought by explorers for centuries, and expanded possibilities for polar tourism also provide exciting opportunities for businesses, according to the EU executive, which on Thursday

"We cannot remain impassive in the face of the alarming developments affecting the Arctic climate and, in consequence, the rest of our planet," said fisheries commissioner Joe Borg, while speaking to reporters after the publication of the policy document.

"The Arctic is an essential and vulnerable component of the Earth's ecosystem," echoed his colleague, external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Walder. "The effects of climate change are more advanced and more evident in the Arctic than in any other area of the world."

But this is no reason not to exploit the region, they both argued.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:57:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a bonanza of oil, gas, fish and mineral wealth waiting to be exploited - so long as it is done in a sustainable manner
Three out of the four cannot be exploited in a sustainable manner since they are finite, non-renewable resources. I wonder what the European Commission believes sustainable means?
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:27:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sustainable growth™
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:19:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we could not do it in a clean way when it was onshore and easy - how on earth will we do it out there, in much tougher conditions?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was some quality snark from the EUObserver. Otherwise, the whole topic is depressing.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 05:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lisbon treaty storms through Swedish parliament - EUobserver

The Swedish parliament late on Thursday (20 November) adopted the Lisbon treaty by a sweeping majority, becoming the 23rd EU country to ratify the text.

The treaty was passed by 243 votes against 39 at 23:30 local time, with 13 abstentions and 54 deputies absent from the 349-seat legislature, the Riksdag.

The old town in Stockholm

The opposition Left Party and Green Party had tried to build a 48-vote blocking minority to put off ratification for one year. But the four parties in the centre-right government coalition and the main Social Democrat opposition party pushed through the EU document.

The long debate, which started at noon and saw 36 members take the floor, concentrated on Sweden's collective labour agreements and transfer of sovereignty.

"Why can't Sweden ask for a legally-binding exemption for the collective bargaining model?" Left Party deputy Hans Linde asked, Swedish daily Aftonbladet reports.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fraud cannot be tackled by OLAF alone, commissioner says - EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / STRASBOURG - Member states need to assume more responsibility in correctly managing EU funds and follow up what happens in the national courts to the fraud cases investigated by the block's antifraud office (OLAF), commissioner Siim Kallas has told EUobserver.

With both the Court of Auditors and OLAF identifying structural funds - in which "member states decide who gets the money", he says - as those that are the most prone to irregularities and fraud, audit reporting from national governments is a necessary step to increase countries' responsibility in regards to EU funds, Mr Kallas said.

Commissioner Siim Kallas says OLAF's institutional arrangement is "schizophrenic"

He was speaking ahead of a debate in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Thursday (20 November) on the latest Court of Auditors report, where MEPs also called on member states to be "named and shamed" for the errors and fraud with EU funds.

Asked why only a few OLAF cases were followed up by the national judiciaries, Mr Kallas replied: "The priorities of national judiciaries are very different from the priority of handling European money."

"The European Parliament, the commission and the Council are all asking for vigorous action. But these actions are the competence of national judiciaries, which have enormous workloads," he explained.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:58:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UN Extends EU Peacekeeping Mandate in Bosnia | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 21.11.2008
The UN Security Council has extended the European Union's peacekeeping mission in Bosnia for one year. Since the war, the country has been under international administration, first under NATO and now under the EU.

The resolution was approved unanimously late Thursday, Nov. 20, and welcomed the EU's intention to retain its 2,100-strong military presence, known as EUFOR, in the country.

The Council also reminded Bosnia's Muslims, Serbs and Croats that it is primarily their responsibility to implement the Dayton peace agreement that ended the 1992-1995 war.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Too Close for Comfort: Amsterdam to Shut 43 Cannabis Cafes - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Amsterdam is being forced to close 43 of its 228 cannabis-selling cafes to meet national regulations. The establishments, including the world famous Bulldog, are simply too close to highschools.

Amsterdam is being forced to close 43 of its 228 cannabis-selling cafes to meet national regulations, Amsterdam mayor Job Cohen announced Friday at the presentation of a memorandum on the city's drugs policy.

[...]

In an interview, Amsterdam mayor Job Cohen makes it clear that he is following the government's directive under duress. "It is possible that moving the coffee shops further away [from schools] will result in street trade and a growing number of drug runners. Young people could have easier access to drugs and it could also mean more work for the police," Cohen said.

Like the majority of mayors in towns where coffee shops sell cannabis, Cohen is happy with the existing policy on soft drugs but would like to see regulation of the whole cannabis trade. "I want an equal policy for soft drugs and alcohol," Cohen said.


Cohen gets a pass. But repression marches on in the Netherlands
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 05:19:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Baltic Course: Ventspils University College lecturer detained on suspicion of spreading rumors about devaluation of lat


The university professor was detained in connection with the opinion that he had expressed during a debate about the development of the Latvian economy and the future of the banking and credit system of Latvia, which was published in Ventspils' local newspaper Ventas Balss. The Mayor of Ventspils Aivars Lembergs also participated in the discussion.

"What happened is absurd. We wanted to find out an expert's opinion. He is competent and courageous, he has a degree, the knowledge and the experience," Imants Viksne of Ventas Balss commented on the detention of Smirnovs.


by blackhawk on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:23:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does it mean what I've read?
In a European Union member country, an individual -- university professor -- can be arrested for writing his opinion in a local newspaper?

That would be a red flag: did the Latvian government read the fine print before signing up for the EU?

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 03:58:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They may but clearly those people do not understand what democracy means really.They adapted it to be able to come to power...
by vbo on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 08:31:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Destabilising the economy? An obvious case of terrorism.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Nov 23rd, 2008 at 12:42:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SPECIAL FOCUS - Financial
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:49:20 PM EST
Sarkozy launches €20 billion 'strategic' industries fund - EUobserver

France will pay out €20 billion to protect its key industries in the wake of the global financial crisis via the creation of a strategic investment fund - the country's first sovereign wealth fund, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday (20 November).

Following up on his idea first brought up three weeks ago to protect French businesses from "foreign hands," Mr Sarkozy also announced the new fund's first €80 million investment would go to industrial supplier Daher, which works in the aerospace, defence, nuclear and automotive industries.

Mr Sarkozy does not want France transformed into "a simple tourist reserve."

According to the French president, firms that have "competences, technologies and jobs that are irreplaceable for the national territory" qualify as "strategic" ones and deserve special treatment.

"The day we don't build trains, aeroplanes, automobiles and ships, what will be left of the French economy? Memories. I will not make France a simple tourist reserve," he said.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Experts Wary of Money Problems for Renewable Energy Market | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 21.11.2008
The current financial crisis has some German experts worried about a cut in renewable energy funds. But industry professionals say that no matter which way the wind turns, the turbine blades will keep churning.

Skyrocketing oil prices and a greater attention to the problems created by greenhouse gases has helped the renewable energy market in Europe to boom over the last decade. Thanks to strict government regulations in Germany and lofty goals for cutting carbon emissions across the EU, solar and wind technologies have seen over a decade of innovation and created a new, profitable market.

 

According to the market research company New Energy Finance, 2007 saw worldwide investments in clean energy climb to $148 billion (118.2 billion euros).

 

Now with banks' money woes seeping into nearly every industry, some say that investors' love affair with renewable energies may be ending and Germany's place as an industry leader is threatened.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to see the concern trolling by all experts whoe main comment on the rop of the oil price will be to kill renewable energy projects...

  1. in the big RE countries, renewable energy projects get feed-in tariffs, which are not subject to oil-related variations;

  2. oil investment seems to be a lot more vulnerable than RE investment right now, storing up problems for the future;

  3. the financial crisis is having an impact, but it is probably a good one overall - crazy credit was straining the supply chains in unreasonable ways: highly leveraged financial investors were bidding up turbines, pushing prices for everybody and creating tensions in supply chains; the price increases for assets were creating huge windfalls for those lucky to have been in just before the boom, and giving credence to the arguments that susidies were unfair and creating easy millionaires on the back of ratepayers; and the overall forthiness was pushing everybody to take more risk than was reasonable, by betting on rising pries wherever possible, or ignoring the very real variability of wind.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:27:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Op-Ed Columnist - The Lame-Duck Economy - NYTimes.com

Everyone's talking about a new New Deal, for obvious reasons. In 2008, as in 1932, a long era of Republican political dominance came to an end in the face of an economic and financial crisis that, in voters' minds, both discredited the G.O.P.'s free-market ideology and undermined its claims of competence. And for those on the progressive side of the political spectrum, these are hopeful times.

There is, however, another and more disturbing parallel between 2008 and 1932 -- namely, the emergence of a power vacuum at the height of the crisis. The interregnum of 1932-1933, the long stretch between the election and the actual transfer of power, was disastrous for the U.S. economy, at least in part because the outgoing administration had no credibility, the incoming administration had no authority and the ideological chasm between the two sides was too great to allow concerted action. And the same thing is happening now.

It's true that the interregnum will be shorter this time: F.D.R. wasn't inaugurated until March; Barack Obama will move into the White House on Jan. 20. But crises move faster these days.

How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over two months ago. And the pace of deterioration seems to be accelerating.

Most obviously, we're in the midst of the worst stock market crash since the Great Depression: the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has now fallen more than 50 percent from its peak. Other indicators are arguably even more disturbing: unemployment claims are surging, manufacturing production is plunging, interest rates on corporate bonds -- which reflect investor fears of default -- are soaring, which will almost surely lead to a sharp fall in business spending. The prospects for the economy look much grimmer now than they did as little as a week or two ago.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:53:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep.  Bush is going to "take a knee," as they say in American football, until the clock runs out.  In the meantime, the recession is deepening.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:32:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Growing Recession: German Economy Beginning to Suffer - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

The number of indicators pointing to foul economic weather continues growing. A new index released on Friday testifies to increasingly empty order books. Experts predict that over 200,000 jobs are at risk. ANZEIGE
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The more economic data comes in, the worse the coming recession appears likely to be. According to a key German economic climate index released on Friday, industry in Germany is facing a difficult road ahead. The index, which measures the economic health of producers in Germany as well as the amount of orders they are receiving, dropped unexpectedly sharply in November relative to its already low October level. It now stands at 36.2, much lower than the 40.5 level many had expected, according to a Reuters survey.

Much of that drop comes as a result of a sharp falloff in exports, a branch that had much of the work in keeping the German economy humming in recent years.

The news comes on the heels of Thursday's announcement that the Ifo global business sentiment index dropped to its lowest level in 20 years. The index fell from an October level of 73.4 to November's 60.0.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fighting the Global Financial Slump: Less Is Dangerous - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Amid a debt-deflation spiral, the governments' greatest risk is enacting stimulus measures that are too little to fight the slump.

For more than six decades, through oil shocks and terrorist attacks, the world's advanced economies have managed to expand their collective output at least a little bit each year. But that long lucky streak is probably about to end, a victim of the severe global credit crunch. The International Monetary Fund is now projecting that 2009 will bring the first aggregate decline in economic output in advanced economies since at least World War II.

Going down. The IMF still expects China and other developing nations to grow next year as a group, but it warns that "downside risks to growth, even for the emerging economies, remain significant." Some economists are even gloomier. "There is a very severe deleveraging which you can't stop," says Anders Aslund, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "My guess is that (even) if we have good economic policies, the world will see a (gross domestic product) fall of 10 percent... . This is global, and it's fierce."

Even if things don't get that bad, it's clear that we're deep in uncharted territory -- or at least territory that hasn't been explored since the Great Depression. Economists and policymakers are floundering. Since they don't know how severe the recession will be, they don't know how extreme their measures to combat the downturn should be. US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who has struggled to find a path for American policy, defended himself in a Nov. 18 op-ed article in The New York Times, saying: "There is no playbook for responding to turmoil we have never faced."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:01:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Home repossessions rise 12% as economy worsens - Times Online

Repossessions in July, August and September jumped sharply by 12 per cent and, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, full year numbers are expected to soar by 70 per cent compared to 2007.

The number of repossessions that took place over the summer was 11,300, as an increasing number of homeowners are struggling to pay their mortgages. Today, the CML maintained its forecast that total repossessions for the year will reach 45,000, marking a 70 per cent increase on last year's total.

The latest figures from the CML also show that the number of mortgages in arrears by at least three months had jumped by 8 per cent.

The number of cases where people have fallen behind in their mortgage repayments by the end of September was 168,000, with lenders now suggesting that the total number of mortgages in arrears is likely to surpass previous forecasts of 170,000 by the end of the year.

[Murdoch Alert]
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:02:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Latvia follows Hungary in seeking IMF aid - EUobserver

Latvia has become the second European Union member state forced to seek emergency aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as from the EU's own coffers.

The move by Riga comes after much speculation by analysts that the Baltic countries and other post-Communist states that joined the EU in 2004 would follow Hungary in needing an external capital boost to weather the financial crisis.

Riga's move has prompted speculation as to who will be next to call for an IMF rescue

"We have decided to start official talks with the European Commission and the IMF about funding to stabilise the economy," Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis told reporters.

The Baltic country has seen a sharp economic slowdown this year, with a contraction of 4.3 percent in the third quarter, breaking its previous record of being one of the fastest growing economies in the EU.

The financial crisis has made it hard for Latvia to obtain funds in its attempts to counterbalance its large current account deficit.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:05:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | Business | EU warns against car subsidy race

EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes has told France and Germany not to start a "subsidy race" with the US to save the car industry.

She said the European Union's existing mechanisms could help automakers, hard hit by falling demand.

General Motors has been seeking support from the German government for its local subsidiary, Adam Opel GmbH.

On Thursday the Congress told US carmakers to present a recovery plan if they want a $25bn (£17bn) rescue.

Poorly-handled subsidies would not solve the car industry's problems, Neelie Kroes said.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:07:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I expect we'll need to have a Citi Death Watch Thread over the week-end


Citi's Fall Continues as Bank Weighs Options

NEW YORK -- Citigroup Inc.'s stock fell as much as 24% Friday to a new 15-year low, as the giant bank's board met to consider its options amid a deepening market rout.

Just two months ago, Citigroup was seen as a possible rescuer for a floundering Wachovia Corp. Now the bank, still freighted with troubled assets and facing mounting losses on consumer loans as economies around the world slide into recession, is facing a flight by investors worried it won't be able to stem its losses and turn things around.

While some executives are starting to consider contingencies that could involve selling off entire lines of business or even putting the bank itself on the block, the bank continues to insist it has ample capital and its strategic direction is sound.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
globeandmail.com: Streetwise - Pirate humour rules Wall Street

Argggg, Maties! Here's what shell-shocked financiers are laughing at on Wall Street Friday morning in a phony Bloomberg story:

Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup

By Andreas Hippin
   November 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.

   The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said. 

   "You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to
offer the shareholders anything," said Ali.

   The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities.  The PRBS's are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden.  Moody's and S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the PRBS's.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CNBC: Geithner to Be Nominated as Treasury Secretary

President-elect Barack Obama plans to announce his economic team on Monday as part of an effort to reassure markets and will name New York Fed President Tim Geithner his nominee for Treasury Secretary, NBC News has learned...

"I would say the market is going to like it," said James Awad, managing director of Zephyr Capital. "[Former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry] Summers was more controversial. People will view it as a safe choice, an experienced guy. There's a little bit of a question because he's associated with the bailout, and that's still a work in progress and not totally successful. There will be a few who'll be upset because he's associated with the TARP."

Can anyone fill in details about his economic ideas? Here's some quotes his Federal Reserve biography:

Timothy F. Geithner became the ninth president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on November 17, 2003. In that capacity, he serves as the vice chairman and a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the group responsible for formulating the nation's monetary policy.

Mr. Geithner joined the Department of Treasury in 1988 and worked in three administrations for five Secretaries of the Treasury in a variety of positions. He served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs from 1999 to 2001 under Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.

He was director of the Policy Development and Review Department at the International Monetary Fund from 2001 until 2003. Before joining the Treasury, Mr. Geithner worked for Kissinger Associates, Inc.

by Magnifico on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a good thing, judging by resume, but none of the likelies are. This whole area is one where the new administration appears to be as clueless as the old one.

The only hope is that they do have some awareness and some plan, but feel that they cannot tip their hand until Jan. 21, because of the delicate psyche of the 'markets'. Personally, I think that that gives them too much credit. In addition, as pointed out above, the U.S. (and other) economy(ies) are likely to look substantially worse in two months, psychologically impaired or not.

At least, I think that the U.S. government will stabilize the domestic automobile industry in December, which may temporarily slow the slide.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by the markets: they went up by 6-7% after his nomination - despite Citi dropping by 20% again.

Not sure it means much, this increase is likely to be cancelled next week depending on what happens to Citi.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Geither is the biggest, fattest and dullest fox in Paulson's chicken coop. What part of "I invented TARP for the JPM-BSC merger" do you (pl.) not understand but which every reserve bank board member and OTC gumba does understand?

You have my sympathy. I lost count of FRB credit facilities created since 14 Dec 2008 after No. 8. And since Mr Paulson's annoucement this week that Treasury will not "seek" release of the remaining $350B budgeted, I had looked forward to the remote possibility those funds would be applied by the next administration to "backstop" HH obligations.

Not anymore. For surely Mr Geithner, pres. of FRBNY, knows better than anyone in Congress which financial services firms require additional support of the full faith and credit of US treasuries. As far as I know, no other regional bank (of the TWELVE) serviced proto-TARP or TARP transactions.

17 Nov 2008 US Treasury Transaction Report, broad strokes, that is the First 30 and excluding private equity under management (funds) and industrial firms. NB The Bailout Bill doesn't require detailed (coded) reporting by the Treasury Sec and "Oversight Board" until Q2 2009.

Let us be clear. Mr Geithner will swear an oath the defend the US Constitution and execute fiduciary duties of public debt management. Is he qualified? Is this creature the best qualified to maximize "taxpayer" returns by lending to FRB reserve banks?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I like your word: proto-tarp - a fitting conclusion to the proto-banking we've been doing all these years.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From a March 23, 2007 speech Geithner made on Credit Markets Innovations and Their Implications.

The latest wave of credit market innovations has elicited some concerns about their implications for the stability of the financial system, concerns similar to those associated with earlier periods of rapid change in financial markets. Will the most recent credit market innovations amplify credit cycles, contributing to "excessive" lending in times of relative stability, and then magnify the contraction in credit that follows? Will they introduce greater volatility in financial markets? Will they create greater risk of systemic financial crisis?

These concerns have been heightened in some quarters by the problems currently being experienced in the subprime mortgage sector. It will take some time before the full implications are understood and the full impact can be assessed. As of now, though, there are few signs that the disruptions in this one sector of the credit markets will have a lasting impact on credit markets as a whole.

Indeed, economic theory and recent practical experience offer some reassurance against both these specific concerns and more general worries about the implications of credit market innovations for the performance of the financial system.

And how about?

Credit market innovation does not appear to have resulted in a large increase in leverage in the corporate sector, as some had feared. Indeed, nonfinancial corporate leverage in the United States is currently low by recent historical standards. The overall degree of balance sheet leverage by corporations, for example, is higher in some more traditional financial systems than it is in systems where credit market innovations are more advanced.

With that said, he did see the need for more oversight.

What should policymakers do to mitigate these risks?

We cannot turn back the clock on innovation or reverse the increase in complexity around risk management. We do not have the capacity to monitor or control concentrations of leverage or risk outside the banking system. We cannot identify the likely sources of future stress to the system, and act preemptively to diffuse them.

The most productive focus of policy attention has to be on improving the shock absorbers in the core of the financial system, in terms of capital and liquidity relative to risk and the robustness of the infrastructure.

These issues are the principal focus of day-to-day supervision and market oversight in the major financial centers around the world. The Federal Reserve is actively involved in a range of efforts, working closely with the primary supervisors of the major global financial institutions and the critical parts of the financial infrastructure, to encourage further progress. In this context, we are working to put in place a stronger regulatory capital regime and to strengthen the capacity of firms to absorb losses in stress conditions. We are encouraging more sophisticated and more conservative management of credit exposures in over-the-counter derivatives and structured financial products, as well as of exposures to hedge funds. And we are encouraging a range of efforts to modernize the operational infrastructure that underpins the over-the-counter derivatives markets, and to improve the capacity of market participants to manage a major default.

Of course, "a stronger regulatory capital regime" never materialized.

by Magnifico on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:42:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a sucky choice. It's not 'change' - it's a refreshed and slightly toned down version of the same nonsense in a younger suit.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:49:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
His actual feelings are hard to judge as he has been under an institution all of these years.  Naturally he can't point to structural weakness if the people he works for won't let him.

The good news is that he's competent and knows his way around (the people and the numbers).  Obama seems to believe he'll do what he tells him to do.  We'll all have to wait and see what that actually is.

Obama, remember, is a Democrat.  Expect no revolutions.

by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:42:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True, and Treasury's not the place for revolutions anyway.  Dealing with the bailout money that Paulson has doled out, alone, is going to be an enormous task, and that's not even very large looking at the bigger picture.  It needs someone with his/her emotions in check -- probably good that it wasn't Summers for that reason, among others -- who can be trusted to maintain some level of competence.  Save revolutionary stuff for Congress or other Cabinet-level positions.

Reading around a bit, Geithner wouldn't be my first choice.  NY Fed chairmen tend to be too plugged into the financial markets, and too separated from the larger economy.  But he'll probably do fine.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:44:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew J Jones: It needs someone with his/her emotions in check -- probably good that it wasn't Summers for that reason, among others -- who can be trusted to maintain some level of competence.  Save revolutionary stuff for Congress or other Cabinet-level positions.

This article from The New Republic has probably already been posted here somewhere, but just in case, it has some interesting things to say about the "not just highly competent" Geith vs. the "brilliant" Summers choice:


... Summers's brilliance made him simultaneously exhilarating and exhausting to work for--a whirlwind of intellectual energy fueled by an endless supply of Diet Coke. "I remember once giving him a memo that was three pages long," recalls Steve Radelet, a onetime Harvard economist who worked for both Summers and Geithner. "I'd worked on it for days and days. He read it in a minute and a half. He looked at me, saying, 'I don't agree with your argument. But, if I were making your argument, I could have made it better. Here's how.' "

In Geithner, Summers recognized the perfect complement. Geithner was razor-sharp, but had an easy way about him. He was a talented softball player who seemed to glide around the diamond, and his workplace demeanor was similarly effortless. This was particularly handy in navigating the political aspects of the job--not always Summers's strong suit.

<...>

What Obama thinks of this is an open question. Several Obama insiders told me the senator has warm feelings toward both men. "Put it this way," says one. "They are both highly regarded. Very highly regarded. Very, very highly regarded." It's possible to see Obama's personal biases cutting either way. On the one hand, the president-elect has a well-known dislike of "drama," which could tilt the calculus toward Geithner. On the other hand, Obama has an equally strong preference for expertise, which could favor Summers.

Substantively, the differences may be slight. Summers, like Geithner, would likely have preferred more robust action in the case of Lehman Brothers and a more systematic approach to the financial crisis generally. Being less politic by nature, it's possible he would have piped up publicly had he been in Geithner's position, or bent Paulson and Bernanke to his will. But it's also possible that such pressure would have backfired. Markets don't generally respond well to conflict among policymakers. If Summers ends up with the Treasury job, it's more than a little reassuring that he'd still have Geithner at the New York Fed--telling him when he's full of it.

Obama's Choice



Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 03:16:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In terms of financial activism, Geithner is somewhere between Summers, a kneejerk interventionist, and Rubin, a kneejerk free-marketeer.  Leaning more towards Summers, but kind of a "Meh" pick.

Summers -- again, setting aside the politically stupid things he has said (Summers is a smart guy, but he's the Joe Biden of economists) -- is a bit of a drama queen, and a drama queen is the last thing we need at the Treasury Dept right now, because he'd lend a feeling of chaos to the situation.  If you think Bernanke is a drama queen for jumping to the rescue every time there's a hiccup, Summers would make Bernanke look sedated by comparison.

That would be, at best, a serious distraction from getting the agenda through Congress, and, at worst, an Epic Fail.  Geithner, by all accounts I've read, is not a drama queen.  As an NY Fed guy, like I said, he's too close to the financial markets for me to be fully comfortable, but, given that so much of Treasury's responsibility will involve managing the bailout package, the TreasSec needs to be someone familiar with the markets.

Of all the potential candidates -- those mentioned and those not -- I would've preferred Stiglitz above anybody else.  But I know he said he didn't want to return to Washington.  Geithner gets good reviews from the people I trust, so I'm satisfied.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 10:41:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The media explain the surge in the DJIA. It seems to have a less noticed, but more important cause: the FDIC will back the whole finacial system.

FDIC OKs backing for bank debt, deposits: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

FDIC approves program to guarantee banks' debt, deposits as part of financial rescue

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The FDIC will guarantee up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. banks' debt for more than three years as part of the government's financial rescue plan.

The FDIC will provide temporary insurance for loans between banks -- except for those for 30 days or less -- guaranteeing the new debt in the event of payment default by the borrowing bank.

The FDIC also will guarantee deposits in non-interest-bearing "transaction" accounts by removing the current $250,000 insurance limit on them through the end of next year. That could add as much as $500 billion to FDIC-backed deposits.

The guarantee program has been in effect since Oct. 23. All federally-insured banks and thrifts have been automatically covered since then but will have to decide by Dec. 5 whether to participate or "opt out."

Well over half of the roughly 8,500 U.S. banks and savings and loans are expected to tap the FDIC's temporary guarantees, which are in addition to the government's $250 billion program of directly buying shares in banks and financial companies.

The FDIC will back new senior unsecured debt that banks issue to each other between Oct. 14 and June 30, 2009. It would be insured by the agency through June 30, 2012. Senior unsecured debt does not have collateral underlying it but must be repaid before other classes of debt.

Hat tip to gjohnsit.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 07:32:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:53:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but even that's pretty impressive considering the state of the competition.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:47:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg | Goldman Slashes U.S. Growth Forecasts, Says Recession Deepens:

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its recession estimates, saying gross domestic product is declining at a 5 percent annual rate in the current quarter and will drop 3 percent and 1 percent in the next two quarters.

Unemployment will reach 9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a research note today.

(Via CR.)

Scary numbers.

Krugman also noted today that yields on the 3-month Treasuries hit .02% today.

Krugman and DeLong are both pleased with the economics-related appointments -- Geithner at Treasury and Orszag at OMB -- Obama has made so far.  At least there's that, I guess, but it'd sure be nice if we could move the inauguration up to, like, Monday.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:37:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ecuador audit advises default on 40% of foreign debt.
Jeanneth Valdivieso, AP  AR Democrat Gazette, 11-21-'08 (link unavailable)

QUITO, Ecuador--A presidential commission recommended Thrusday that Ecuador default on almost 40% of its foreign debt after finding "illegalities and ilegitimacies" in the contracts.

President Rafael Correa said he would seek to halt payment on those debts and hold foreign investment banks and ex-government officials responsible, but fell short of declaring a default.

An audit made public Thursday advises Correa's government  to default on $3.9 billion in three types of bonds issued as part of a debt restructuring in 2000.  It says the negotiations lacked transparency and caused "incalculable" damage to Ecuador's economy.

The report also accuses former Ecuadoran officials and investment bankds including U.S. based J.P. Morgan and Salomon Smith Barney, now part of Citigroup, of profiting from the restructuring.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:49:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say defaulting on the Citigroup debt is a fairly sound move at this juncture.
by paving on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 04:38:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NYT| Citigroup, Under Siege, Holds Talks With U.S.:

With the sharp stock-market decline for Citigroup rapidly becoming a full-blown crisis of confidence, the company's executives on Friday entered into talks with federal officials about how to stabilize the struggling financial giant.

In a series of tense meetings and telephone calls, the executives and officials weighed several options, including whether to replace Citigroup's chief executive, Vikram S. Pandit, or sell all or part of the company.

Other options discussed included a public endorsement from the government or a new financial lifeline, people involved in the talks said.

The course of action, however, remained uncertain on Friday night, these people said, and other options may yet emerge. But after a year of gaping losses and an accelerating decline in share price, Citigroup, which has $2 trillion in assets and operations in scores of countries, is running out of time, analysts said.

Citi's going down...

Oh, well.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Drew's WHEEEEE™ Technology]

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 12:51:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here!



Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 05:13:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
WORLD
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:49:58 PM EST
Thousands protest U.S. troop accord in Baghdad - International Herald Tribune

BAGHDAD: More than 10,000 supporters of the radical anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr gathered in Baghdad's Firdos Square on Friday to protest the Iraqi government plan to sign a security agreement which would maintain American troops in the country for up to three years.

With powerful symbolism, demonstrators hanged an effigy of President George W. Bush from the plinth that once supported the statue of Saddam Hussein that was toppled after Baghdad to U.S. troops on April 9, 2003.

Preachers and political leaders supporting Sadr erected their podium in the same colonnaded traffic circle. The Iraqi crowd applauded the downfall of Hussein's regime. To drive home their point, the cleric's supporters placed a black hood over the effigy of President Bush. They put a whip in his right hand and, in his left, a briefcase on which were written the words "the security agreement is shame and dishonor."

The black hood was a reference to the execution of Saddam Hussein on Dec. 30, 2006.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:54:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
al-Sadr, aka "Mullah Atari," will be in charge of Iraq when the US finally leaves.
by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US seeks 300 billion dlrs from Gulf states: report - Yahoo! News

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwait's daily Al-Seyassah reported Thursday.

Quoting "highly informed" sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait.

Al-Seyassah said Washington sought the amount as "financial aid" to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.

The daily said the United States plans to use the funds to help the ailing automobile industry , banks and other companies suffering from the global financial turmoil.

The four nations, all members of OPEC, produce together 14 million barrels of oil per day, around half of the cartel's production and about 17 percent of world supplies.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:58:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US power wanes in an unstable world - World - smh.com.au

THE leading US intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of Western-style democracy cannot be taken for granted, and the US will no longer be able to "call the shots" alone.

Powers such as China and India, as well as independent entities including tribes and criminal networks, will grow in influence, it predicts.

The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council every four years, makes sobering reading for Barack Obama as he prepares to take office as president in January.

It marks a dramatic shift from the review in 2004, which confidently predicted "continued US dominance" and said "most major powers have forsaken the idea of balancing the US".

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:01:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jewish settlers prepare for battle to remain in Hebron's House of Peace - Times Online

Jewish settlers in Hebron spray-painted insults to the Prophet Muhammad on a mosque and defaced Muslim gravestones with the Star of David yesterday as they defied a court order to leave a disputed building.

The graffiti was the most recent in a spate of attacks by the town's settlers, considered the most hardline in the West Bank, as they prepared for potential clashes with security forces. Israel is nervously waiting an all-out battle similar to the eviction of settlers from the Gaza Strip three years ago.

"We will not leave. We cannot leave. If we give up this house, it will next be Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, our whole country they ask us to leave," said Ruth Hizmi, 50, a mother of seven, who moved her family into the building two years ago.

Earlier yesterday a soldier was lightly injured when a chemical substance was sprayed at him near the building, the army said. Government officials have described a "drastic rise" in incidents of vandalism while dozens of Palestinians have filed complaints of verbal and physical harassment in recent months. There was a semblance of normality in the building; mothers with young children on their hips and fathers pushing strollers calmly made their way inside carrying supplies to set up a new home. "We are not here for days or weeks. We are not here until the Government kicks us out. This is our home," said one young woman stacking soda bottles into a cabinet.

[Murdoch Alert]
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tibetans in exile debate independence - International Herald Tribune

DHARAMSALA, India: In this Himalayan hill town, where Tibetan prayer flags flutter and red-robed monks study Buddha's call for forbearance, talk is brewing of kicking off the world's next separatist movement.

Posters around town advertise the word "rangzen" -- Tibetan for "independence." Not in years has it been heard so much in the streets here, falling from the lips of members of the Tibetan diaspora whose frustration runs as deep as the mountain ravines of their homeland. Decades of dialog with the Chinese government, they say, have failed.

"Support for independence will definitely increase," Dhondup Dorjee, 30, said, as he took a break from heated discussion with fellow exiles to grab lunch in the cafeteria of the Tibetan medicine hospital. "What are the pressures we can put on the Chinese? The pressures will come in any form."

The Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the Tibetans, has called hundreds of representatives from the world's 150,000 Tibetan exiles to a crisis meeting here this week so people like Dorjee can speak their mind. Dorjee is vice-president of the Tibetan Youth Congress, an exile organization that wants independence from China. The Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile, based here in Dharamsala, have long advocated autonomy under Chinese rule, not outright independence.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:18:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Next Steps on Tibet - Moon of Alabama

There is currently a meeting of Tibetan exiles in Dharamsala, India, to discuss the future of their movement.

In March several Han Chinese were killed by violent Tibetan protesters in Lhasa. As the 'western' media misrepresented the issue, I wrote a small piece on the history of the Tibet conflict:

After he won control over most of China Mao Tse Tung in 1950 reasserted Chinese rule over Tibet, but allowed the local religious aristocracy and government to carry on.

Then most of the Tibetan people were still working as serfs for the big land owners. These were the thousands of monasteries controlled by various lama lineages, feudal religious ruler clans. Despite the peaceful image of Buddhism the various lamas and monasteries regularly fought over territory and economic benefits.
...
During the 1950s the Chinese implemented land reform and secular schooling in Tibet. The lamas fought against the loss of their economic, social and political power by sending their monks into the streets. With the active help of the CIA the lamas had some success against the communists, but the movement was crushed when in 1959 the Chinese again occupied the capital and the seat of the Dalai Lama, Lhasa. Financed by the CIA, the Dalai Lama fled to India to set up an exile government.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton to Accept Secretary of State Job - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com

Hillary Rodham Clinton has decided to give up her Senate seat and accept the position of secretary of state, making her the public face around the world for the administration of the man who beat her for the Democratic presidential nomination, two confidants said Friday.

Mrs. Clinton came to her decision after additional discussion with President-elect Barack Obama about the nature of her role and his plans for foreign policy, said one of the confidants, who insisted on anonymity to discuss the situation. Mr. Obama's office told reporters Thursday that the nomination is "on track" but Clinton associates only confirmed Friday afternoon that she has decided.

"She's ready," said the confidant. Mrs. Clinton was reassured after talking again with Mr. Obama because their first meeting in Chicago last week "was so general," the confidant said. The purpose of the follow-up talk, he added, was not to extract particular concessions but "just getting comfortable" with the idea of working together.

A second Clinton associate confirmed that her camp believes they have a done deal. Senior Obama advisers said Friday morning that the offer had not been formally accepted and no announcement will be made until after Thanksgiving. But they said they were convinced that the nascent alliance was now ready to be sealed.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find it fascinating that not a single person has gone on record regarding Clinton as SoS.  
by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:47:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
THIS, THAT, AND THE OTHER
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:50:30 PM EST
Einstein Truly A Genius, Physicists Confirm | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 21.11.2008
French, German and Hungarian physicists have finally confirmed the equation on mass-energy equivalence more than a century after the German-born theoretical physicist unveiled his e=mc2 formula.

Led by Laurent Lellouch of France's Center for Theoretical Physics, the group of physicists used some of the world's strongest supercomputers to establish the calculations for estimating the mass of protons and neutrons, the particles at the nucleus of atoms.

Proposed in his Special Theory of Relativity in 1905, Albert Einstein's e=mc2 formula shows that mass can be converted into energy and vice versa. And although the theory has only now been corroborated, that hasn't stopped it from being used frequently, perhaps most notably as the basis for building atomic weapons.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:59:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rubbish!

E = m c^2
was checked before in hundreds of different totally different experiments, with completely different sorts of energy variations.

If these calculations, that seem to use Quantum Chromo-Dynamics on a space time grid, come out with the right mass, it does say much more about

  • the correctness of the QCD theory
  • the accuracy of the approximation made, by discretising the space time, which, even if it may be discrete for sure isn't to the used dimension.
than about the beyond doubt established equation from Einstein.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interview with Notorious Lawyer Jacques Vergès: 'There Is No Such Thing as Absolute Evil' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

He has met Mao Zedong, Pol Pot and Che Guevara. He defended 'Carlos the Jackal' and Nazi war criminal Klaus Barbie. Jacques Vergès, 83, is probably the world's most notorious attorney. His latest client is Khieu Samphan, the former head of state of Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, who is on trial for war crimes.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Vergès, are you attracted to evil?

Jacques Vergès: Nature is wild, unpredictable and senselessly gruesome. What distinguishes human beings from animals is the ability to speak on behalf of evil. Crime is a symbol of our freedom.

SPIEGEL: That's a cynical worldview.

Vergès: A realistic one. Kai Jünemann

Jacques Vergès: "One of my principles is to have no principles."

SPIEGEL: You have defended some of the worst mass murderers in recent history, and you have been called the "devil's advocate." Why do you feel so drawn to clients like Carlos and Klaus Barbie?

Vergès: I believe that everyone, no matter what he may have done, has the right to a fair trial. The public is always quick to assign the label of "monster." But monsters do not exist, just as there is no such thing as absolute evil. My clients are human beings, people with two eyes, two hands, a gender and emotions. That's what makes them so sinister.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:05:12 PM EST
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Amsterdam 'cannabis cafés' to close - Telegraph
Almost one fifth of Amsterdam's cannabis cafés are to close because they are too near to the city's schools.

Amsterdam Council plans to shut 43 out of the capital's 228 popular marijuana-selling coffee shops in support of a Dutch Government bid to protect schoolchildren from drugs.

The cafés are a big tourist draw and resemble ordinary coffee bars but include a cannabis menu detailing several varieties of the drug.

The city's Labour Lord Mayor Job Cohen said the businesses due to close were all within an "unacceptable" 200 metres of schools.

Peter Veling, a spokesman for the Cannabis Union in the Netherlands, said the closures were unnecessary as coffee shop owners carefully monitored customer's ages, banning schoolchildren.

"They know a school aged customer found on the premises would mean instant closure of the coffee shop."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:06:35 PM EST
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If Amsterdam weren't so densely packed one might be generally surprised to learn that these establishments were so close to schools to begin with.
by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:49:33 PM EST
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Transgender people face fear and hate across Europe - EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Attitudes towards gays and lesbians in much of Europe and around the world may have made remarkable advances over the last 20 years, even if some regions of the EU are more hospitable than others. But for transgender people, discrimination, marginalisation and outright hostility remain part of daily experience.

A transgender woman protests discrimination at a Paris demonstration

Transsexual people are often fired from their jobs when undergoing gender reassignment procedures. They are turfed out of their apartments, refused insurance and confronted with bigotry within the health community. Gender non-conformity is still used as an excuse for harassment, violence and even murder

A report on homophobia and sexual orientation discrimination in the 27-country bloc by the EU Fundamental Rights Agency published in June 2008 identified serious gaps in national legislation in regards to transgender people's rights

On Thursday (20 November), transgender people around the world observed the annual Transgender Day of Remembrance, held to remember the murder of Rita Hester, a transgender woman from Boston, and all other transgender people who have been killed because they do not fit into the traditional mould. Ms Hester's murder - like most anti-transgender murder cases - has yet to be solved.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:07:47 PM EST
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Europeans marry older, less often - EUobserver

EUOBERVER / BRUSSELS - The number of marriages in the EU has been steadily decreasing over the years, while Europeans nowadays tend to wait more before saying "yes" if compared to 15 years ago, a European Commission study showed on Friday (21 November).

The age at the first marriage increased overall by 2.3 years for men and 2.6 years for women between 1990 and 2003, according to the Eurostat survey.

Europeans marry less nowadays, according to the Eurostat survey

While women used to marry at 24.8 years and men at 27.5 years in 1990, they did it at 27.4 years and 29.8 years in 2003.

The age of women giving birth for the first time has also been progressively increasing over the years and reached 31 years in 2006 in some countries such as Ireland, Italy and Spain.

In parallel, the overall number of marriages in the EU decreased by 30 percent between the years 1975 and 2005, going from 3.45 million to 2.4 million, the survey says.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:08:27 PM EST
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Release: Austrian Government Study - Institute for Responsible Technology

(Los Angeles, CA.) - A long-term feeding study commissioned by the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, managed by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Health, Family and Youth, and carried out by Veterinary University Vienna, confirms genetically modified (GM) corn seriously affects reproductive health in mice. Non-GMO advocates, who have warned about this infertility link along with other health risks, now seek an immediate ban of all GM foods and GM crops to protect the health of humankind and the fertility of women around the world.

Feeding mice with genetically modified corn developed by the US-based Monsanto Corporation led to lower fertility and body weight, according to the study conducted by the University of Veterinary Medicine in Vienna. Lead author of the study Professor Zentek said, there was a direct link between the decrease in fertility and the GM diet, and that mice fed with non-GE corn reproduced more efficiently.

In the study, Austrian scientists performed several long-term feeding trials over 20 weeks with laboratory mice fed a diet containing 33% of a GM variety (NK 603 x MON 810), or a closely related non-GE variety used in many countries. Statistically significant litter size and pup weight decreases were found in the third and fourth litters in the GM-fed mice, compared to the control group.  

The corn is genetically modified with genes that produce a pesticidal toxin, as well as genes that allow it to survive applications of Monsanto's herbicide Roundup.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:08:54 PM EST
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This looks like a serious study over time, of the kind that have not been fully carried out before, and it bears the stamp of the Austrian Health and Food Safety Agency. It at the very least shows that fullscale trials should be carried out before the EU allows GM corn to be planted and used as cattle feed.

The study itself is here.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:28:55 PM EST
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Discovery Of Giant Roaming Deep Sea Protist Provides New Perspective On Animal Evolution

ScienceDaily (Nov. 21, 2008) -- Groove-like tracks on the ocean floor made by giant deep-sea single-celled organisms could lead to new insights into the evolutionary origin of animals, says biologist Mikhail "Misha" Matz from The University of Texas at Austin.

Matz and his colleagues recently discovered the grape-sized protists and their complex tracks on the ocean floor near the Bahamas. This is the first time a single-celled organism has been shown to make such animal-like traces.

The finding is significant, because similar fossil grooves and furrows found from the Precambrian era, as early as 1.8 billion years ago, have always been attributed to early evolving multicellular animals.

"If our giant protists were alive 600 million years ago and the track was fossilized, a paleontologist unearthing it today would without a shade of doubt attribute it to a kind of large, multicellular, bilaterally symmetrical animal," says Matz, an assistant professor of integrative biology. "We now have to rethink the fossil record."

[...]

With their find, Matz and his colleagues argue that fossil traces cannot be used alone as evidence that multicellular animals were evolving during the Precambrian, slowly setting the stage for the Cambrian explosion.

"I personally think now that the whole Precambrian may have been exclusively the reign of protists," says Matz. "Our observations open up this possible way of interpreting the Precambrian fossil record."



Jesus died for somebody's sins but not mine - Patti Smith
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:57:18 PM EST
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KLATSCH
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 01:50:50 PM EST
Finland wonders if Russia stole its camouflage design - International Herald Tribune

MOSCOW: One of the stranger questions to emerge after the August conflict between Russia and Georgia: Did Russians go to war in camouflage filched from Finland?

That, anyway, is the theory circulating among Finnish commentators, who have been examining such fine points of camouflage design as outline irregularity and light-to-medium-green ratios. Using photographs taken in Georgia, the Finnish authorities are trying to determine whether Russian armed forces are wearing M/05, a pattern that is based on digital photographs of Finnish forests and that is legally protected in the European Union.

The authorities in Finland looked into the similarities this month, and they decided not to take the matter up with Moscow, particularly since the legal protection does not extend to Russia.

But, said Captain Eero Karhuvaara, a spokesman for the Defense Staff of Finland, the chatter has continued in newspapers anyway - and not because the Finns have a special attachment to camouflage.

Word of the inquiry reached Moscow this week, prompting sardonic coverage in several city newspapers. A spokesman for the Russian Interior Ministry flatly denied copying the Finnish pattern.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:02:11 PM EST
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Photo of French justice minister airbrushed to play down glamorous image - Telegraph

A photo of a concerned-looking Miss Dati was splashed on the front page of conservative daily Le Figaro, left hand held to her head during a debate at the Senate.

It was supposed to illustrate the serious side of the minister whom magistrates have accused of preferring Dior dresses to addressing their problems.

However, L'Express magazine found the original picture taken in June, which clearly shows she was wearing a huge diamond ring.

The jewel, a Liens model of "grey gold paved with diamonds" by the luxury Chaumet brand and costing 15,600 euros (£13,000), had been neatly airbrushed out of the Le Figaro picture.

The newspaper - owned by Serge Dassault, close to President Nicolas Sarkozy - was obviously keen to erase Miss Dati's glitzy side liable to irritate magistrates already furious with her reform agenda and high-handed manner.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:06:52 PM EST
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Klatsch or plain politics? A €15K ring might produce a strange effect on people worrying about getting laid off.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 03:32:55 PM EST
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In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:55:15 PM EST
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Can you dig up a photo of Sarkozy's love handle photoshop job, for some historical context.

This type of thing should greatly bother the public. It is extremely dishonest.

by paving on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 06:51:56 PM EST
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From Spot le difference! at the Daily Mail, where else?

by Magnifico on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 09:31:17 PM EST
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