What carried the election to Sarko was basically the over-65 demographics.

Interesting.  Can it be drilled down to a couple of basic reasons?

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

You need a majority in the second round and as horrible as some of the triangulating may be - surely another Sarko victory is worse?

Of course, Royal had some deficiencies as a candidate last time around, but disunity was a big part of the failure. Job 1 has to be to get some kind of unity, whoever wins the role.

Also I think the primary last time was too close to the election - not enough time to embed a policy stance in a hostile media environment. This time should be better just because of that.

As to Royal, the infighting in the PS did handicap he campaign massively - just like division in 2002 brought Jospin's loss as too many candidates vied for votes on the left.

The core goal of the PS should be to have an uncontested leader. I think Royal can play that role better than Aubry, despite her being clearly hated more inside the party.

Not having an uncontested leader is suicide.  Whether Royal or Aubry emerges as the leader here, it needs to be clear that person is in charge, or they're going to be too undisciplined, regardless of how much Sarko screws up.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

The chief reason for Besancenot's popularity is that, like Barack Obama (to quote Michelle Obama), "he's cute." With his boyish face, broad smile, and big eyes, Besancenot appeals to his generational peers, women, and even older people, who tend to see him as their virtual son. This has not escaped the talk show hosts, who are eager to have him on the air as often as possible, as if he were a rock star or supermodel. (Incidentally, the same holds true on the right: Rama Yade, a lovely young woman of Senegalese descent, is one of the most popular and media-friendly ministers in the Sarkozy government.)

Once again, the meme of homo politicus- the voter- as idiot.
Le Figaro is often caught up in this vision--they see themselves as speaking to the governing class, perhaps.

Grabbing what you can, as John Ruskin said, isn't any less wicked when you grab it with the power of your brains than with the power of your fists.

This from a Brit in Finland - who might be expected to have a bit of perspective on things of global significance :-) Not even all Americans see it that way:

   Changing With Retreads: The Third Clinton Administration

   By RALPH NADER

November 21, 2008 "Counterpunch" -- While the liberal intelligentsia was swooning over Barack Obama during his presidential campaign, I counseled "prepare to be disappointed." His record as a Illinois state and U.S. Senator, together with the many progressive and long overdue courses of action he opposed during his campaign, rendered such a prediction unfortunate but obvious.

Now this same intelligentsia is beginning to howl over Obama's transition team and early choices to run his Administration. Having defeated Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Primaries, he now is busily installing Bill Clinton's old guard. Thirty one out of forty seven people that he has named so far for transition or appointments have ties to the Clinton Administration, according to Politico. One Clintonite is quoted in the Washington Post as saying - "This isn't lightly flavored with Clintons. This is all Clintons, all the time."

Obama's "foreign policy team is now dominated by the Hawkish, old-guard Democrats of the 1990," writes Jeremy Scahill. Obama's transition team reviewing intelligence agencies and recommending appointments is headed by John Brennan and Jami Miscik, who worked under George Tenet when the CIA was involved in politicizing intelligence for, among other officials, Secretary of State Colin Powell's erroneous address before the United Nations calling for war against Iraq.

Mr. Brennan, as a government official, supported warrantless wiretapping and extraordinary rendition to torturing countries. National Public Radio reported that Obama's reversal when he voted for the revised FISA this year relied on John Brennan's advise.

For more detail on these two advisers and others recruited by Obama from the dark old days, see Democracy Now, November 17, 2008 and Jeremy Scahill, AlterNet, Nov. 20, 2008 "This is Change? 20 Hawks, Clintonites and Neocons to Watch for in Obama's White House."

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21297.htm

THIS is a global paradigm shift?! Maybe you've been reading too much US media sourced election stuff :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience