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US Election Open Thread

by Jerome a Paris Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:52:55 AM EST

The thread with most comments in ET history has 292 340 comments. Will we do better?

Update [2008-11-28 6:30:28 by DoDo]: Yes.
Display:
US Election Open Thread | 385 comments (385 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
In a way, it's a bit sad to say it, but most likely this will be the longest thread before we are done.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:54:14 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Possibly to-date.  Greater days are ahead for old ET.  Just watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 12)
Maybe we should organize a huge web-event for the European Parliament Elections in June? Maybe a special section with poll tracking, a dictionary of national and European parties, interviews, etc. I mean if not here, where else?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:37:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Excellent idea!

I'll sign-up.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
especially if we have a big meta-thread to start with :-)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:59:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 5)
but then, US presidential election are set up to be the one that generate more comments : it's the one that actually has a world and europe wide importance, has a chance of vote rigging, is divided in a low enough number of constituencies that each can be talked about...

And we haven't had EP election coverage on ET, yet. That shall be the subject of the next semester, I hope.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:04:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (none / 1)
Are we in school?  Do we have an ET uniform?  Short pants?  High socks? :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:08:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (4.00 / 4)
Exactly.

For Europeans, two diaries are expected by the end of december : a summary of the EP electoral system and a rundown of current MEPs, and a summary of candidates for the next EP election with summary of influence on national politics and issues, national and europeans, that will be discussed during the campaign.

For Americans, a single diary at most celebrating the Obama election, with results of your own state's elections.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:29:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (4.00 / 2)
Well, I guess us expats can just kick back and pop a brew then.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:31:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (none / 0)
You don't have a home state?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:36:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (none / 1)
Yes, but I'm not up on all the lore, propositions, gossip, inside baseball &c. that you need for a really spicy election diary.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:38:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (none / 1)
Well, that simply means a diary that will require research.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (none / 1)
he lies, it's Colorado

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "next semester"? (4.00 / 2)
Ah, the Helen Effect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Last night's OT got very slow above 150 comments. It's achingly slow for me now.

I dread having to watch the BBC's ghastly hackneyed coverage tonight. Why can't I get MSNBC here ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:15:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
You won't want MSNBC.  Remember they stripped Keith and Tweety of the anchor chairs and gave the show to David Gregory, who's a total McCain hack.  I actually liked Tweety and Keith's coverage.  I don't know if I can stomach Gregory, so I may stick with Brian Williams tonight.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:17:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
don't they feature Rachel and Keith at regular intervals ? that'd do me.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:18:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Yes, they will.  Keith is paired with Tweety, Rachel with Pat, Gene Robinson thrown in somewhere in all likelihood.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:23:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Before the advent of the Internet I would spend election nights flipping channels and yelling at the TV.  

Screw the talking head MSM morons.

I'll be listening over the Internet to Pacifica Radio, most likely KPFK radio out of Los Angles, switching to NPR out of Iowa City, Iowa, and New York City when I get bored.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:09:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 6)
I even recall in 1980 searching the SW radio band for some sort of live US election results commentary. The same with British results at the time. The fact that I can now learn real-time results from Leon county FLA and follow all the local elections anywhere in the planet pretty much, still amazes me.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
I'll probably listen to KCRW after midnight Suomi time. iTunes talk radio channels are my favourites for lying in bed in luxury.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:41:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
just doing my part (to the comment count metric), voted absentee in maine before coming to cairo.

had the financial meltdown started four weeks later, i'd still be expecting the rnc to keep the executive branch.

by ebw on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:12:22 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Well the polls closed a bit today after widening over the weekend. Even without the meltdown I remain staggered that anybody could vote McCain/Palin. Neither of them are competent to be let free near the White House, let alone into it.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:18:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
The dKos poll widened by 3 points today after the weekend - from 4 to 7.

I think we'll see another point or two on top of that, so the final spread will be something like +8.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:22:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
I figured it would.  Given a few more days, it'd probably hit 9-10.  Polls seem to have reached a consensus of about an 8-point margin.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:09:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 9)
The thread with most comments in ET history has 292 comments. Will we do better?

Yes We Can.

(Someone had to say it.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:14:08 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
We already did.   Early voting brisk in the Irish Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty had 340 comments

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:31:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
We'll get that number as well.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:13:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
What was the 292 comment thread anyway?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:18:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
The Iowa caucuses.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 4)
Op-Ed Columnist - A Date With Scarcity - NYTimes.com
Nov. 4, 2008, is a historic day because it marks the end of an economic era, a political era and a generational era all at once.

Economically, it marks the end of the Long Boom, which began in 1983. Politically, it probably marks the end of conservative dominance, which began in 1980. Generationally, it marks the end of baby boomer supremacy, which began in 1968. For the past 16 years, baby boomers, who were formed by the tumult of the 1960s, occupied the White House. By Tuesday night, if the polls are to be believed, a member of a new generation will become president-elect.

So today is not only a pivot, but a confluence of pivots.



Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
by budr on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:18:46 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
A confluence of pivots?

I suppose this means there's going to be a Chinese warehouse of hyperbole.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:20:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 8)
Ethnic President.
Election lost, Rove weeps.
Autumn become spring.

(Yes, I know it's not a Chinese form, but I'm in a hurry.)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:27:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 9)
with voting comes loss
and the presence of absence
"Pres McCain" not found

First snow, then silence
the rovian plan dies
so beautifully

Yeserday it worked
today is does not
rove math is like that

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:37:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the same pivot (4.00 / 8)
The long boom was driven by the boomers being in their peak income years, saving and putting that money in the stock market, in particular for pensions.

The next generation may still put money on the market for their pensions, but even if they do, their flows into the market will be compensated by outflows of the boomer generation, drawing pensions.

Politically, you could also say that the generation that fought for a lot of individual rights and (social) freedoms got slightly intoxicated by the (economic) freedoms that came along somehow and the individualism they fostered.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: It's the same pivot (4.00 / 3)
Having an increased proportion of your population dissaving at an exact time adjustment requires savings rates to increase is not fun, either.

Baby boomers also have observed their kids becoming teens and doing the teen things. As a result, boomers rediscovered religion - there's no better way to keep your kids in check, and doing drugs and free love is much more fun than watching your kids doing the same -which helped Republicans, of course. But the effect is wearing off. Will GOP become the AARP political wing now?

What is also clear now is that window of opportunity for hurting Social Security has closed forever.

by Sargon on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:50:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Hmmm, the inaugural address would just write itself then:

"The torch has been passed to a new generation..."

Oh. Never mind...

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:33:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Hey dvx, you goin to chelsea hotel in Köln tonite?  dems abroad et al?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:42:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Hi CH! No, I was gonna, but I seem to have come down with a cold. So I'm going to do the wimpy thing and stay home with my sage tea. Strong beverages are no fun with a sore throat.

How about you? Are you going to party like its 2008?

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
No, though if anyone in Remscheid wants to join me at the ET party in my room, we'll watch the show in Englisch.  That i don't need an OP is cause enough to celebrate.  Wanted to go there (i'd even given a presentation on energy to Dems Abroad in Cologne) as i've met some folks, but better i sleep in until 1AM.


"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:33:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
Take a quick jet over the Alps and join the Dems in Nice at the Texas City Restaurant - I'll be setting there with my laptop, wondering how the dems were able to lose again.

Can this many polls have missed that many Catholics  and other religious rightists and other wackos? Does the news that gun sales are up 10% in the US fit into this equation?

I had faith in the youth vote, among others, last time...

One thing is for certain, I will not get my hopes up and jinx this thing.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:29:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Repost of Poll Closing Times:



Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:20:15 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Do you still have Daylight Savings Time or not? (E.g. if I stay up until midnight CET, will I get to see the Indiana and Kentucky exit polls, or already half the Southeast?)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
Daylight time ended Sunday - we're back to Standard - sorry, you'll have to stay up the extra hour - however, and it's more important this time, the exit polls will be way off - Nate has 10 or so reasons, the most important being that nobody has good data on the early voters, and the pool of "day of election" voters may be more skewed than usual

So, sorry to say, you may have to stay up until the real results start to come in....

In every age it has been the tyrant ... who has wrapped himself in ... patriotism, or religion, or both to deceive and overawe the people. Eugene Debs

by fatbear (fatbear < > aol.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Bah, then I rather stand up early...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:13:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 6)
As I understand it

A) Daylight Savings Time was the only Savings institution that the Fed didn't bail out...there was no way to get any vig from them...so now the US is on Standard Time.

B) Only part of Indiana and part of Ky are closing at midnight, CET.

C) Indiana is not typically the kind of state which one can "call", but if it is tight for Obama, then that is a good sign, since he should be no where close.

D) KY is an emollient for McCain. The interesting race is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Will that be 'callable' by 24:00 CET?

01:00 CET is interesting for Florida and Georgia. A win in Florida for the Irish guy, O'Bama, will likely indicate a seal'd up race, and a Georgia win will indicate that the entire country is in for a huge surprise. A win in Georgia and I will go to sleep thinking I won't be disappointed by the dems yet again.

At 01:30 CET that Ohio, N. Carollina and West Virginia come up...and then things flood at 02:00 CET - the highlights from my view are Pennsylvania and Missouri. How does St. Louis go? They have been a bell-weather city for 100 years, only missing once.

At 03:00 is the Colorado vote (and a host of others, but that is an interesting one since it has been trending Dem for a while, but is not quite ready to admit it.

At 04:00 is 'eyes-on' Nevada, another red state turning blue.

At 05:00 CET the west checks in.

All this is presuming that at those hours the pundits are able to read the tea leaves correctly and make a prediction at these times...usually based upon exit polls, but this time there will be a lot of early voting results to blend in...

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 9)
Soon, I will go to work.

It's not just any work day, mind you, but the school excursion.  To Disneyland.

On the day of the most important election of my lifetime, one I have been following every day since its earliest rumblings in the wake of 2004, I have to sit on my ass at Tokyo Disneyland while my slacker punk kids wander around and have fun and get into trouble.

What's the bet they have a TV showing CNN anywhere in the park?

I won't get back till 5:30, more likely 6:30, at which point it will be well into Novemeber 5th in the US.

AAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!

by Zwackus on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:41:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Well, did they have CNN on at Disneyland?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:34:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Final Polls & Stuff (none / 1)
Final RealClearPolitics average:

Obama 52
McCain 44.2

Final Pollster.com projection:

Obama 51.9
McCain 44.3

Polling over the night suggests either an even split among undecideds or a break towards Obama.  Zogby sez 54-43, ABC 53-44, Marist 52-43, Ras 52-46, IBD/Tipp 52-44, MediaCurves 54-43, Economist/YouGov 52-44.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:22:22 AM EST
Re: Final Polls &amp; Stuff (none / 1)
These are somewhat annoying as they are almost on the edge of Blow-Out Landslide range.

Let's keep an eye on the Kentucky Senate race.  If McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, goes down ... get this! ... Senator John Kyl of Arizona is next in line.  

Whoa!  That would be great.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:53:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Final Polls &amp;amp; Stuff (none / 0)
Who is he? Booman was giggling about the idea as well.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:54:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Final Polls &amp;amp;amp; Stuff (none / 0)
He's the junior senator from Arizona, I believe.  Long-term, a sitting duck, since AZ will eventually find its way to Blue America (even if it probably doesn't tonight in the presidential).

Napolitano will probably defeat McCain, too, in 2010 if he loses to Obama tonight and seeks re-election to the Senate.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:06:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Final Polls &amp;amp; Stuff (none / 0)
Sadly kos has McConnell up by 3 points.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Final Polls (none / 0)
I think Kos is actually being a little too optimistic.  I'd be happy to see Lunsford win it, even if he's a wimpy Kentucky Dem, but I think Obama would need to get within single digits to push him up, and that ain't happenin' in KKKentucky.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Final Polls &amp;amp;amp; Stuff (none / 1)
Polling tells us what was happening, not what is happening.

It's all about turn-out now.  

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Series I: The Kids Are Alright (4.00 / 3)
There were 1,000 students lined up already when the polls opened at Penn State.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:11:13 AM EST
More (4.00 / 2)
Temple University students are overwhelming the precinct in North Philly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:30:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
OOPS - I posted my own election diary at http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2008/11/4/105840/513 before I saw this was up.  I'm buying a drink for whoever posts the closest prediction over there - (got to drive traffic somehow!).

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:37:53 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 7)
Don't be a tightwad, Frank. Kos is offering a new Apple laptop :-)

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:40:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 9)
ok -two drinks!

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:44:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
Note what is not said.  What drink is being offered.

My guess: tap water.

:-)


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:36:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
I'll make it a stiff drink...

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:55:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 5)
Frozen glass of tap water?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 6)
you guys must be lawyers...

PS a "stiff drink" comes from the practice (during the Crimean War) of sending home the bodies of slain officers (ordinary soldiers were buried in situ) in coffins filled with Brandy to preserve them.  Apparently many Coffins were found, on arrival in England, to have small bore holes in them and no Brandy....

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:27:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
"It adds flavour."
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 4)
And previous to that  Naval Rum got the name "Nelsons Blood" from the cask that Nelsons body was shipped back from the battle of Trafalgar in. with similar drinking experience.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:36:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
We've got a bottle of champagne ready to open and extra glasses if you want to pop on in for some.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:32:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Obamas (4.00 / 7)
Here's a picture of the Obamas voting.

by Magnifico on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:43:27 PM EST
Baton passes to a new generation (4.00 / 4)
In NY:


My voting place is a home for the blind, a metaphor I always found appropriate given the degradation of democracy. Voting every four years seems to have become a substitute for engagement with the poilitical prccess. Usually, pehaps because I go early-polls open at 6 AM- I am in and out in a jiffy, usually before the blind people get to set up their table selling donuts and coffee.

This time, it was different. The big assembly room was PACKED with lines snaking around each machine that was allcoated to a different assembly district. It looked like a madhouse but there was a method in this madness and soon, you could find where you belonged. A fellow was shaking his head. "This is unprecedented," he said. Right behind me was a youg wman who told me proudly she was a first time voter. She was psyched, "pissed and pysched" she said.

There was an excitement in the air, to reuse an approprite cliche, even here in cynical NY. The scene was changing. When I started voting in this valley of the blind, I was much younger. It was older people who ran the balloting. They are gone and now young men-"this is my first time," the guy at my desk chirped--and younger women are in command. A generational baton is passing. Lots of this had to do with the population explosion in Chelsea where new buildings have broken out like acne thanks to the dreaded Rudy Giuliani's avarice and contempt for decent city planning.

But here we were in a high state of excitement and anxiety, doing our bit to breathe some air into our demcracy. We will find out later what happens, but right now even as embarassing mich of this campaign and its media boosterism was, I feel good.

http://www.newsdissector.com/blog/



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:01:48 PM EST
Re: Baton passes to a new generation (4.00 / 6)
New generation and the insight of previous generations:

ByAmbrose Evans-Pritchard

IT is not just that the Democrats will win a crushing victory in both houses of Congress, perhaps reaching the 60-seat Senate threshold that lets them steam-roll legislation. It is also that the incoming class of 2008 is of a new creed. Many no longer believe - or actively reject - the free trade and free market catechisms.

As commentator Markos Moulitsas put it in Newsweek: "The big question is, will Democrats nationwide simply 'win' the night - or will they deliver an electoral drubbing so thorough that it signals the utter rejection of conservative ideology and kills the notion that America is a 'center-right' country?" he said....

For those who missed it, I recommend Edward Stourton's BBC interview with Eric Hobsbawm, the doyen of Marxist history.

"This is the dramatic equivalent of the collapse of the Soviet Union: we now know that an era has ended," said Mr Hobsbawm, still lucid at 91.

"It is certainly greatest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. As Marx and Schumpeter foresaw, globalization not only destroys heritage, but is incredibly unstable. It operates through a series of crises.

"There'll be a much greater role for the state, one way or another. We've already got the state as lender of last resort, we might well return to idea of the state as employer of last resort, which is what it was under FDR. It'll be something which orients, and even directs the private economy," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3366575/Revenge-of-the-Left-across -the-world.html



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:52:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 19)
Voted, donated, walked and called.  And this is just the first steps.  I feel better than I have since Ronnie Reagan took office.  Greetings to all at ET.

Steve

"I said, 'Wait a minute, Chester, You know I'm a peaceful man...'" Robbie Robertson

by NearlyNormal on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:12:28 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
aaarghhh, just realised I don't have a single american beer in the store. British, French, Czech, Belgian & German, but no US.

Drat !!!!

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:03:44 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
What about Kenyan? Indonesian?

Unless we're in real trouble... then I guess it's time for the Bia Hoi.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:29:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bohemia? Negra Modelo? (none / 0)
The best American beers are from a different part of North America.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:58:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unintended consequences (4.00 / 4)
Guardian - Hugh Muir - diary

That said, it's time to think of the practicalities, and one man who will be doing just that is Sir Nigel Sheinwald, British ambassador in the US - for the word from the Obama camp seems to be that a new Democratic administration would press to have him replaced once it has settled into the White House. Sir Nigel's not entirely flattering portrait of Obama - "aloof, insensitive", "decidedly liberal", a man finding his feet who then "got diverted by his presidential ambitions" - was "leaked" to the press. This enraged the Obama camp, who noted that no similar paper on McCain's possible limitations had found its way into the public domain. Obama talks a lot about the "better angels", but his people are already making it clear to Labour types here that they haven't forgotten the ambassador's unhelpful contribution to this long-running, titanic struggle. Message to our man in Washington: enjoy it while it lasts. Don't get comfy.


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:09:30 PM EST
Re: Unintended consequences (4.00 / 2)
I'm sure they were less "enraged" by these comments :-)


Sir Nigel's letter is complimentary about the Democrat in places. Mr Obama's speeches are "elegant" and "mesmerising", he is "highly intelligent" and has "star quality", he said.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4871276.ece



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Unintended consequences (none / 1)
He's so well spoken . . .
by Zwackus on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:48:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Unintended consequences (none / 1)
I always like to call people intelligent because it implies I'm intelligent enough to appreciate their intelligence...

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Unintended consequences (none / 1)
So you´re back in full swing and following the OT, Frank!  (;


Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Unintended consequences (none / 1)
Touche.  I make an exception for election night specials!  How's your diary progressing?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Unintended consequences (none / 1)
Same here.  An election thread is too tempting to pass, although the Spanish ones are more active right now.  The diary is about done, like dozens of others and I have to find time to proof and post.

Zapatero´s tone almost worried me about possible fraud today when he said:  "I hope it´s an election of convergence...".  But I think he was being diplomatic to avoid supporting Obama.  

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:06:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turnout (4.00 / 3)
Signs say turnout is massive in Philly.  And apparently peopled are lined up, block after block, in New York City.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:29:58 PM EST
Re: Turnout (4.00 / 3)
Massive black turnout in West Philly.  Already 50% of registered voters in.

Commenters say massive turnout in South Florida.  Miami-Dade and Broward counties seeing 5- to 6-hour lines.  Sounds like our folks may be showing up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:37:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Turnout (4.00 / 4)

Hundreds converged on polling precincts in Missouri, a crucial battleground state. Norma Storms, a 78-year-old resident of Raytown, said her driveway was filled with cars left by voters who couldn't get into nearby parking lots.

"I have never seen anything like this in all my born days," she said. "I am just astounded."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27531033/



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:53:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Turnout (4.00 / 2)
Which is strange coming out of Missouri, where they often talk of "unborn" days.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:05:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Turnout (none / 1)
Will this depress the turnout in Cali?  Not that it matters.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Turnout (4.00 / 2)
I dont know that it will, It looks like it's one of those times where everyone just wants to say that they were there.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:25:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Turnout (4.00 / 2)
Reading anecdotal evidence of people standing in line in Hollywood.  

Beginning to look like a massive turn-out on the Dem side.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Turnout (4.00 / 8)
From Greenwich Village -

We vote in an NYU dorm on the west side of Washington Square - most times the line fills the lobby, and that's it (even in 2000, which because of Clinton Senate race was the most voted I remember - in 2004 I voted absentee as was away on the day)

Today at roughly 10AM, after the early morning rush, the line was out the door and around the corner - and not students either - normal everyday run-of-the-mill Villagers

In fact, and this worries me, I saw very little interest in the NYU students going in-and-out of the building - perhaps they're freshman and too young, or perhaps NYU is an unusually non-interested school - from what I read, the students in Philly (both Temple and Drexel) are mobbing the polls - but then, the socio-economic profile of Temple and Drexel do not match the high achievers who flock to NYU

In every age it has been the tyrant ... who has wrapped himself in ... patriotism, or religion, or both to deceive and overawe the people. Eugene Debs

by fatbear (fatbear < > aol.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:31:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
World media invade - Chicago (4.00 / 4)

THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING

    An army of global journalists is descending on the United States to cover Election Day, November 4, in a reflection of unprecedented worldwide interest in the American presidential election. Democrat Barack Obama's campaign has accredited 1,500 journalists for an Election Night event at campaign headquarters in Chicago, home base of the 47-year-old Illinois senator seeking to become America's first black president. Due to media fascination with the most prominent African-American candidate to date, as well as polls that show Obama leading his Republican rival John McCain, more journalists have chosen to base themselves in Chicago than in Phoenix, Arizona, where McCain serves as senator.

http://www.newsdissector.com/blog/



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 03:49:23 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Diary up on Kos is claiming:

The [Indiana] Obama Campaign has told the HQ that are now fully confident of winning Indiana!


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:07:10 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Which states aren't winner-takes-all?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:16:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Maine and Nebraska

The candidate with the highest number of votes gets 2 and the rest are split by who gets the highest number of votes in that Congressional District.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 4)
Nebraska - 3 CDs plus 2 (Total 5 EV)

Maine - 2 CDs plus 2 (Total 4 EV)

The Congressional Districts go 1 EV to the winner within the District, and the plus 2 EVs go to the overall winner in the state.

IIRC, the CDs have never gone different than the states overall.

2nd CD in Nebraska is Omaha and 'burbs, and in a real blow-out might go Obama.  Otherwise, it's predicted the 2 CDs in ME go with the state to Obama, and the 3 CDs in NE go with the state to McCain.

In every age it has been the tyrant ... who has wrapped himself in ... patriotism, or religion, or both to deceive and overawe the people. Eugene Debs

by fatbear (fatbear < > aol.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Math Predictions from Early Results (4.00 / 2)
Nate and the crowd at 538 have been punching more numbers than anyone else, and now Andrew Gelman at Columbia University has extrapolated some info from the 538 stats to guide the early-to-bed crowd (like you guys in Euroland) - it makes very interesting reading, short and sweet

In every age it has been the tyrant ... who has wrapped himself in ... patriotism, or religion, or both to deceive and overawe the people. Eugene Debs
by fatbear (fatbear < > aol.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:29:13 PM EST
Re: Math Predictions from Early Results (none / 1)
When i went to the site the top banner ad was:

"Full Coverage of the Election from Christianity Today"

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:09:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy to be away (none / 1)
Happy to be away

A few Americans are happy to be away from the madness of election season and campaign advertising. A respondent from Oklahoma, now living in the Netherlands, reported feeling, "Grateful that I don't have to experience all the negative advertising that goes on at home!"

Embarrassed

Other Americans expressed embarrassment after President Bush's conflicted eight-year tenure: "I'm somewhat "embarrassed" being from the United States. Fifty percent of Americans are very naive people. Especially Christian fundamentalists who get involved in politics," said Peter Cayce, a New Yorker now living in the Netherlands.

http://www.expatica.com/fr/articles/news/Living-abroad-during-election-season.html



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:31:19 PM EST
Re: Happy to be away (none / 0)
That´s pretty selective quoting of the article, Ted....  Actually misleading.  (;

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:10:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Happy to be away (none / 0)
I don't work for the BBC :-) I wasn't reporting on the article but selecting bits which were somewhat more likely to provoke comment. But I did supply the link and I'm glad you followed it.  If you must have balance (which can also distort - the real situation may not be balanced):


Disconnected

The most popular response among poll takers was feeling disconnected, left out or alone during election season.

"I definitely have felt a little disconnected from the political race. I rarely talk about politics with anyone here and if and when I do it's usually explaining how it works or why the race is so crazy and such a spectacle. But what has made this election surreal for me is pulling all-nighters to watch live debates," said Silas Crews, an American from Pennsylvania now living in the Netherlands.

Distanced

Living geographically far from home can be especially challenging for those who are excited about politics. "I feel left out. I really want to be home rallying, discussing, volunteering and debating during these monumental times. I'm a bit sad because this election will, either way, go down in the history books like no other and I'm not there to soak it all up," said a respondent from Illinois, now living in the Netherlands.

Isolated

Some American conservatives feel isolated living in comparatively liberal European countries. "I feel like I'm one of the few Republicans stranded on an island full liberals," said Jeff Lodge, a US citizen from Michigan, now living in Germany.



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MSNBC coverage (none / 1)
main table..

Keith, liberal commie
Maddow - liberal lesbian pseudo-commie
Eugen Robinson - black liberal pseudo-commie
The weird semi/all-myso guy
David Gregory - neutral, but in the real sense of neutral

Conservative are outside...

I can not believe it....this does not happens without a nod from General Electric..

General Electric supports the Obama Energy plan....If the plan pushes for GE increasing hiw wind division, it is a great non-zero sum game.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:09:11 PM EST
Re: MSNBC coverage (4.00 / 2)
GE has GREAT results from its wind division, but according to CEO (our savior) Jeffrey Immelt, GE pins its hopes for the future on the global nuclear division.  end of story.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC coverage (4.00 / 3)
They didn't call his predecessor "Neutron" Jack Welch for no reason...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC coverage (4.00 / 2)
I can bet with you right now, that Obama is going to push for nuclear + wind heavily.... Win win situation.

I all makes perfect sense from the Obama perspective... an alliance with GE about government investment in energy and health care costs...  

It is a brave move by GE..pushing so hard for a transition from the military-industrial complex to the energy complex with GE at the top.

What is important here is that they did nt trust McCaint o deliver on their promises.. they must view as the typical military-industrial guy...GE bets that bama gets out of Iraq and stabilizes the military budget...and increases heavily the energy investment.

I hope GE is right.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:18:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC coverage (none / 0)
GE is not pushing nuclear hard at all, they relocate all the time, they have no focus.

Face it, GE is not an engineering company anymore, it's a financial services company.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC coverage (4.00 / 3)
kcurie ... you know your commies.  Did you take a course or two in college?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC coverage (4.00 / 3)
Of course... anyone who I wouldcal fair well-minded center-left european guy, is a commie or a pseudo-commie.

I chose commie or pseudo-commie depending on how the blow winds :)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Oh shit, first results are in, and Obama's German supporters are not going to be pleased:

Werder Bremen 0 Panathiakos Athen 3

And for sure Obama would call for a do-over on that bullshiite Liverpool penalty kick.  They will never beat Detroit.

We now return you to your forgone conclusion.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:18:17 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Yup, that L'pool penalty was a joke decision. They never deserved it, Atletico were robbed.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:41:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
KPFT, the Pacifica radio station out of Houston, is discussing the Anglo Disease.  Thanks to ET I know more than their expert.

So One Up for Us.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:33:41 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Have they actually called it that ?? that would indicate they read ET as well.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:39:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
They didn't call it that, that was me.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:58:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exit Polls (4.00 / 2)
Top Issues:

Economy 62%
Iraq 10%
Health Care 9%
Terrorism 9%

38% believe Palin is qualified to be president.
67% believe Biden is qualified.

57% believe Obama understands their problems.
40% believe McCain does.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:37:42 PM EST
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
This is all from a commenter at dKos:

New Voters are 10% of the electorate today.  They are voting for Obama 2-to-1 in Ohio and Virginia, 3-to-1 in Indiana.

Among White Men:

McCain +10 in Indiana
McCain +4 in Ohio
McCain +19 in Virginia

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
Also from a commenter at dKos:

Late Deciders:

Obama +7 in Indiana
Obama +15 in Ohio
McCain +11 in Virginia

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
Those are good numbers for Obama.

AND, I'll point out ...

I was right!  I was right!  neener! neener! neener!

The Ground Game payed off.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:45:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: OH! A TRIPLE neener ! (none / 0)
Devastating!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
I'll be thrilled if you were right.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:48:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
Prediction: @ 3:51 MST

Obama takes Indiana.

See if I'm a doofus in about 10 minutes.  :-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:52:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
My dear AT, I hope you're right.

Woo.  I am nervous, nervous, nervous.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:56:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
From MyDD:

Per Fox News, 10 percent of voters are voting for the first time, about the same as the 11 percent in 2004. In the following states, these voters broke down as follows:

    Indiana: Obama 73 percent/McCain 23 percent
    Ohio: Obama 69 percent/McCain 31 percent
    Virginia: Obama 63 percent/McCain 36 percent

White men make up 36 percent of the electorate, the same as in 2004.

    Indiana: Obama 44 percent/McCain 54 percent (Kerry 34/Bush 65 in 2004)
    Ohio: Obama 47 percent/McCain 51 percent (Kerry 43/Bush 56 in 2004)
    Virginia: Obama 39 percent/McCain 58 percent (Kerry 27/Bush 72 in 2004)

These numbers are very early, but at first glance it appears that Obama is doing significantly better among white men than John Kerry.



Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
That'd sure be nice.  Looks like potentially one helluva reverse-Bradley Effect in Virginia, but let's not count chickens.  I'm still very nervous unless and until they call it for O.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
Heaps of salt needed probably, but Drudge says the exits point to Obama by 15 in Pennsylvania.

That'd be nice, but I won't hold my breath.  He also says, generally "EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG".

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
About when do you expect results worth to look at from...

  • Georgia,
  • Indiana,
  • Florida,
  • Ohio,
  • Virginia?

(Listed in decreasing order of my interest)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
Indiana is closing in a couple of minutes.

Florida, Georgia, and Virginia at 7:00 EST

Ohio at 7:30 EST.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:01:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
I'm not asking polls closing times, but results times, given the dismissal of exit polls by everyone who is in the know.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:02:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
No idea.  Could be a long wait, could be quite early.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
They haven't called Indiana -- GREAT NEWS!

Unfortunately, that means we won't have any results until sometime after 7:00 EST or 1:00 CET.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:10:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
So, when can we expect Indiana's vote counts?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:06:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)
7PM, actually.  Only part of Indiana closes at 6.  NW (Gary, East Chicago, etc) closes at 7, along with SW (Evansville?).  So we can't really know the full story until 7 at the earliest, I'd guess.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:09:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
Anecdotal evidence from Philly is that the AA turn-out is going to approach 98%.

(Wonder who they are voting for? :-)

If this carries across the South we could take North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana, AND

tah-dah!

Texas.

that last from a combination of AA and Latino coming hard for the O-man.

Yes, I still haven't given-up on Texas.  


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)
New Voters Overall:

Obama 72
McCain 27

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:54:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pause a Moment (4.00 / 10)
Before we get into the evening's foregone conclusion, i wish to be serious for a moment, serious not in the financial times comedy sense.

i truly want to thank Drew and ATinNM for being maniacs enough to bring me to a much greater understanding of how to dissect polls, and their importance.  I've learned much from their banter and stats, and hope i can enjoy their insight tonight (assuming ET/Booman stays online.)

Thanks, guys.  Forgive me for being from the Massa family who celebrates falsely too early, but it is a foregone conclusion, and you guys have given great insights these past months.

What i don't understand is this electoral college thing.  Why can't the winner win in a democratie?  Why should alaska get any votes?  Shouldn't Exxon and Chevron be in the college?  (Don't let this pre-drunken ramble distract from the praise i've given.)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:59:28 PM EST
Indeed (4.00 / 2)
Many thanks to them (and others) for their smart and thouhtful coverage.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indeed (none / 1)
I appreciate that from both of you, but you're both much too kind.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indeed (4.00 / 3)
What Drew said.

Frank's diaries have been a great source of information as have the comments, criticisms, and analysis of the entire community.

"It takes a blog ..."  ;-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Pause a Moment (4.00 / 2)
Frank, too!  Frank's diaries have been absolutely spectacular.  One of the reasons I've greatly enjoyed talking about this race here at EuroTrib has been to get great perspective from across the Pond.

Really, everybody contributed to a wonderful discussion.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Pause a Moment (4.00 / 3)
True. Kudos also to Frank, though his predictions are off by 0.04-0.09% across the board, but adjusting for time zone differences, he's within margin of error.

Seriously, danke Frank.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:35:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Pause a Moment (none / 0)
Don't worry about being drunk, I'm working on that and then I'm going to bed, no way I can stay up late enough to see it through so I'll catch up in the morning.

BBC are saying virginia is an issue with serious voting problems.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Pause a Moment (none / 1)
Voting problems in Virginia seem to be relatively minor for the US' Third World System.

Reports are the Obama people are responding like lightning.  One guy (Kos diary) reported a problem and the Vote Protection Squad called back within 4 seconds.

Very different from the Kerry campaign.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:05:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Alaska gets a vote because we are a federal ... (none / 1)
... republic ... what I don't get is how California and Texas are allowed to be so big ... they should definitely be cut up into smaller states.

But the Electoral College system would work much better with proportional distribution of electors by state. The winner take all system is not in the Constitution, it just emerged in the early fight for influence.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:10:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some exit polls (none / 1)

Obama number first

Fl  52-44

Ga47-51

Mi 60-39

Mh 57-43

Mn 60-39

Pa 57-42

Va 55-45

Wi 58 42

Oh 54-45

Nc 52-48

In 52-48

Mo 52-48

Nv 55-45

Nm 56-43

From a serious source, as far as I can tell.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:08:48 PM EST
Re: Some exit polls (none / 0)
Nothing from Colorado?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Some exit polls (none / 0)
70% of Colorado early voted so exit polls aren't going to be all that useful.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Some exit polls (none / 1)
Ah, so these must be the numbers Drudge has.  Or at least it matches his headlines on the general outcome and Pennsylvania.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Some exit polls (none / 0)
LOVE those 4+ point spreads!!!!!  Obama killed in early voting so this is really going to run up the national numbers.

Georgia is a nail biter but if those numbers hold then Obama will take it.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Some exit polls (none / 0)
What's Mh, by the way?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New Hampshire, I'd guess (none / 0)
No M-starting State fits

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:29:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: New Hampshire, I'd guess (none / 0)
Oh, yes, duh, New Hampshire.  My bad.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Some exit polls (none / 0)
More:

Young people outnumbered seniors in Missouri, and Obama got 32% of Evangelicals (much better than Kerry apparently).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:34:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The source (none / 0)
Huffington Post

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They seem to have beeen (none / 0)
almost correct, in the end....

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 01:02:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
It's not important but I'll note that the BBC US election night coverage has started.

The Round Table:

Chair: David Dimbelby
BBC Reporter: Matt Frei
US Broadcaster: Ted Koppell
US Expert: Larry Sabato
Republican Lady who used to be Dick Cheney's Press Secretary.

Seems oddly unbalanced to me.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:29:35 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
i've chosen, based on a sample of one channel, to watch tiny screen internet of MSNBC.  The only big screen choice i have is CNN.

i could toggle, btut it's hard as my tv (with the apple screen) is only digital, and not satellite. tweety already has my dander up, BUT not so much as expected.  Having Keith and Rachel wins out.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
What did you expect ? The BBC in the US is a beltway phenomenon, so they're gonna be stuck in the mainstream media consultant way of thinking, which is republican.

I personally think that the BBC is gonna get bizarre reporting on the democrat washington cos Frei won't understand it and Webb doesn't even speak the language.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:41:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Don't mean to be rude ... that line-up

bleech

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:58:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
On the brighter side, they've got Jane Hamsher of firedoglake at their blogger's party. She's got a nice Macbook Pro.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I'm off to bed (none / 0)
See you all in the morning!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:39:16 PM EST
but hey (none / 1)
the non US election OT won!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
01/20/09
see more funny political pictures

I saw Oliver Stone's 'W' Today. Quite good, a bit sloppy - made in a hurry. But a fantastic Bush from Josh Brolin.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:46:35 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Republican strategist on North Carolina, speaking to Norah O'Donnell: "An Obama Tsunami."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:56:20 PM EST
Dole Out? (4.00 / 2)
msnbc reporting that top rethug strategists say that the profile of the electorate has changed so much that their numbers were off, and Dole has lost.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:58:51 PM EST
Re: Dole Out? (4.00 / 2)
btw, the live german coverage is so completlely different, so refreshing in comparison.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:01:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excuse me while I ........... (none / 0)
lose it:  The Usian ambassador in Madrid, a Cuban named Aguirre, is being interviewed and says  

´...The pResident has done very well...
not even Job (sic) could have done better dealing with the disasters we have suffered,
like 911 and the hurricanes.... ´

I can´t listen to anymore.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:00:33 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Indiana officially Too Close to Call.

Virginia Too Early to Call.

Georgia Too Early to Call.

South Carolina Too Early to Call.

Obama takes Vermont, McCain Kentucky.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:01:55 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Leans: Virginia, per Keith, leans to Obama.  Georgia I didn't hear but assume it leans McCain.  SC leans McCain.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:02:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Virginia 1 (none / 0)
Mark Warner wins the VA Senate seat.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:03:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
VA2 (none / 0)
Exit Polls for the presidential:

O54-45M

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:15:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
House Watch (none / 0)
MSNBC projects Dems get to 261 for now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: House Watch (none / 0)
That's a gain of 28 and may be a bit low considering the massive Obama turn-out.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:26:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indiana 1 (none / 0)
Too close to call.  Tied at around 49.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:06:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 1)
7% of precincts reporting, Obama is ahead. 50/49. That's early.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 0)
Any clue what the reporting order is? Are we getting the urban-Dem precincts in first?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:19:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 0)
Not sure.  Waiting for Chuck Todd to haul his computer-map-thingy out.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 0)
Indiana First is centered on Gary and the surrounding district.

It is the most reliable Democratic area of Indiana.

I don't know what precincts have been called but usually the urban areas are the last to report.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:22:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 0)
I hope not. Now a 51/48 lead for McCain, though.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 0)
Gary is a majority of the District and about 78% black.

It ain't going McCain.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:32:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Indiana 1 (none / 0)
Basically, right now, it looks like Obama is performing way ahead of Kerry in a lot of once-heavily GOP areas.  I mean 40-point net swings in some areas, from a Kerry share of 30% four years ago to an Obama share of 50% tonight.

That's at least what they're saying so far.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IN2 (none / 0)
Exit polls say Obama and McCain split men, while Obama won women by 10.  Women were 53%, Men 47%.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:28:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: IN2 (none / 0)
So much for Palin bringing the Woman vote to the ticket.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:34:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IN3 (none / 0)
McCain is turning in terrible numbers in Indiana.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: IN3 (none / 0)
He's closing in in the votes reported right now. 50/49 at 24%.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: IN3 (none / 0)
At M51-49O in Indiana, with places like Gary still not having reported, Obama's in pretty damned good shape.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:55:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: IN3 (none / 0)
Bush won the Indiana by 20% in 04.

If Obama can keep it close in the rural and downstate areas the urban north should bring it home.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Stolen from 538, results from some places Indiana:

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:07:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
North Carolina: Too Close to Call.

Ohio: Too Early to Call.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
What's the semantics there?

Too close = we don't know?

Too early = we think we know, but don't want to look stupid?

WV called for McCain, CNN, Fox

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Yes.  Too Early = Strong Lean, Too Close = Don't Know.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:38:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Nailed it.

Usually it goes:

Step 1  Too Close
Step 2  Too Early
Step 3  Projected Winner

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:42:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Big Obama lead in Florida right now, after 10% in. 58/42.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:54:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Yes.  So far Obama's doing very, very well along the I-4 Corridor.  He's winning the outlying counties around Tampa.  He's winning Orlando.  That bodes well if it holds up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:56:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Yea, I got an MNBC live feed.

I guess you're all watching the same thing.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:07:02 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
What i like best is that the internets cut out the commercials.  S@ilence is golden

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Kos reporting Virginia has been called for Obama.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:13:40 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
It hasn't.  Dumbass either misheard when they called Warner or is calling it himself based on exit polls.

It's Too Early to Call.  It looks like Obama will take it, but we don't know.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:16:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Kos screwed up...
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:16:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Black President!!!! (4.00 / 3)
Yeah yeah, I know that this is my third post tonight where I pimp Fela Kuti - but come on. It fits, and it's good musical balm for those jarring nerves.

Let's go.

by Nomad on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:15:22 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
good night and good luck.

See you tomorrow

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:28:04 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Good Night Helen.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:30:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
'Nighty 'night.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tim Robbins (initially) denied voting! (none / 1)
Tim Robbing, the actor, reports on Democracy Now(streaming live right now) that he was initially denied voting; the poll supervisor told him he wasn't on the rolls. He had to get a judge to order the board of elections to let him vote.

Their voting system is REALLY fucked up.

A 'centrist' is someone who's neither on the left, nor on the left.

by nicta (nico&#65312;altiva&#8228;fr) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:48:18 PM EST
Re: Tim Robbins (initially) denied voting! (4.00 / 2)
He's way too progressive, i would deny him the right to vote if i was a politician.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:54:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Matt Frei quotes the stat that it appears 51% of potential voters in Indiana received at least one phone call from the Obama campaign in the last 6 months.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:52:59 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
This comment thread is open for the 2AM CET results comments (as a test.)  Feel free to post where you wish, but br aware that the new Obama administration in waiting is monitoring your keystrokes.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:00:32 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Apparently Penn has been called for Obama.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:01:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Tweety:  "The McCain strategy has crashed."

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
McCain HAD a strategy?

News to me.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
This might be apt:

delmarvanow.com | Salisbury PluckPersona | The Daily Times

Sometimes at Edwards they used to play the tapes of pilots going into the final dive, the one that killed them, and the man would be tumbling, going end over end in a fifteen-ton length of pipe, and he knew it, and he would be screaming into the microphone, but not for Mother or for God or the nameless spirit of Ahor, but for one last hopeless crumb of information about the loop: "I've tried A! I've tried B! I've tried C! I've tried D! Tell me what else I can try!" And then that truly spooky click on the machine. What do I do next? (In this moment when the Halusian Gulp is opening?) And everybody around the table would look at one another and nod ever so slightly, and the unspoken message was: Too bad! There was a man with the right stuff.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Obama wins Pennsylvania.  Called immediately.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:00:44 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama wins New Hampshire.  Also called immediately.

Maine too.

Obama sweeps New England, Maryland and Delaware.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Thankyou John.

Goodbye, and goodnight.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Not over until they call Virginia or Colorado.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:06:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
I'm going with toast for now. The results elsewhere are too good to make a McCain win even slightly likely.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:15:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
I can't get excited yet.  Just gimme one good-sized red state.  Virginia would do it.  Ohio or Florida -- party time.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:21:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
CNN reporting

O ahead 54/45 in Florida with 21% reporting.

Virginia: McCain ahead 57/43 with 22% reporting.

In Ohio Obama is ahead 228k/99k with 0%, from early voting.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
CNN has called SC for McCain


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:01:25 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
You're behind, man.  PA went to O, along with NH.

We need Virginia to be called.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:02:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
CNN calling:

ME, MA, NH, CT, NJ, DE MD, DC, and Illinois for Obama

OK, TN, for McCain.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:04:32 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
With 80% in, Obama's winning Pinnellas County, FL, by 6.  Kerry lost it, Gore narrowly won it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:08:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
florida is looking better than I expected

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:09:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Much, much better.  Obama's carrying 75% of Broward County.  Way ahead of Kerry.  60% of Miami-Dade -- again, way ahead of Kerry.  Winning suburban Tampa, which is the big thing.  Winning Orlando -- huge.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:13:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
well looking at the county figures for this election and last and with a rough back of the envelope calculation, it looks like a roughly 10% move from Bush/McCain to Kerry/Obama across the two elections, which is better than the polls have been suggesting. but the current election figures are horribly incomplete, so it's not even slightly realistic.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Yep.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:23:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Electoral vote:
McCain 16
Obama 3

And looking at those numbers on TV (all tho it's early) I don't see where your optimism is coming from...?

by vbo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:07:55 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama 102
McCain 34
Much better now...
by vbo on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:10:25 PM EST
hello from MO (4.00 / 8)
Just done. Vegging in the office before the party, exhausted but with a second wind. Up to 1 yesterday, up at five today.
by MarekNYC on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:12:35 PM EST
Re: hello from MO (none / 0)
You're just in time as things seem to be beginning to look fairly good.  We're looking great in Indiana.  Too Early to Call in Ohio and Virginia (both leaning our way).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:14:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: hello from MO (none / 0)
Hey dude.  

Looking good in Missouri!!

Kick back and take a load off.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:21:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Ok, checking out. I have to be up in 5 hours or so.

Magic up a good result for me when I wake up!

Obama ahead 51-47 in Osceola County, FL with 41% precincts in.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:14:54 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
That's damned good, I believe.

Have a good night, Metatone.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Night Metatone


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
your msnbc coverage... (none / 0)
... Alabama senate seat TOO EARLY TO CALL...at 2:17 Barcelona time...

if this is true... it is over.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:20:30 PM EST
Re: your msnbc coverage... (none / 0)
We won't win it, but it sounds like that race came in better than expected for us.

Better still, Mississippi is too close to call.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:22:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: your msnbc coverage... (none / 1)
Of course... but this means Noth carolina is over for Obama...by an important margin.. and georgia run-off almost granted...
It also guarantees taht Pensilvania was a good call since a good rate of non-colege white folks are voting Obama...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:30:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: your msnbc coverage... (none / 0)
..and the bad news..

Virginia is right now almost lost.

Dole winner in North Carolina projected...

So it is going to be north carolina and not virginia... amazing...I think it is over for Obama if Alaba/Missisipi senate seat is kept too early to close for half an hour....

wowo as I was writing this, Alabama is for McCain.. mmmh pity too fast... the game is on... Obama has nto won yet and Virginia is in trouble...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Ohio Sos is holding all results until all the state polls have closed.

Good.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:25:45 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Then how are some counties reporting already?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:29:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Two possibilities:

  1.  Early voting results were released

  2.  CNN screwed-up


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:34:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
All polls are closed in Ohio.

Should start getting results soon.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Virginia was just changed to Too Close to Call from Too Early to Call.

Sigh.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:31:21 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
What counties have reported?

IIRC, the NE comes in last.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Map here
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:40:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
NE is trickling in.  Alexandria's up to about 30%.  Arlington's only at 10%.  Fairfax at 2%.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
That means you communists haven't had your results added in to the total.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Ah, we have now, at least in Alexandria.  93% in for it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:54:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Talking heads on BBC saying McCain won't take VA now.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:06:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Virginia seems to be closing kinda-sorta quick, and we still have a good bit to go in NoVa.

Are they basing that on anything?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:10:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
The rural margins aren't enough to balance out the projected city vote.

Not sure how useful or true that is, but it's a data point.

Also VA wasn't called for Webb in 2006 until nearly midnight, and he squeaked a win after being some way behind. So - not totally unlikely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:13:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I'm feeling good about Virginia.

The separation is about 60,000 and near as I can tell the rural areas have all reported.

It's closer than I would like and it must be admitted it's still a toss-up.

 

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:19:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Less than that.  26,000.

Obama's beating McCain ass in Fairfax County.  If that holds up, I think we'll pull it out.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:20:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Bunch of precincts reported right after I posted.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:23:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
VA is going to flip (none / 0)
in less than an hour. 60% of Fairfax to go.
by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:51:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: VA is going to flip (none / 0)
Can't it go faster ? It's kind of keeping me out of bed.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:53:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Only 18000 spread in favor of McCain right now in Virginia, it's going to Obama now...


Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:20:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
that's awful....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Senate Update:

Sheehan wins in NH
Hagen wins in NC
Warner in Va.

So Dems are up three.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:32:11 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Georgia called for McCain.  Aw, well.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:36:18 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Georgia's numbers on CNN are strange.  

Who called Georgia?  MSNBC?


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Think so, im drifting between them and CNN, with the odd excursion to sky, the BBC AL-Jazeera and France24 and I think I saw them first.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
First toss-up state North dakota goes to McCain according to MSNBC..

And florida and north carolina are going slowly towards mccain...(even when Virginia democratic counties still udnereported).. they are still on Obama column by slowly drifting away...

This does not look like a mandate right now.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:04:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
last news..per MSNBC

Indiana is a complete toss-up

Virginia and North carolina looks like in Obama column but slowly drifting away...

Florida looks McCain and Obama depending on the county you comapre with 2004.

it is a much closer election than expected...

It is 3:00 an this is not over.. it should be over half an hour ago.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Damn Virginia, its McCain voters, and its un-mouse-over-able absurdly small counties.

My bed has called before Virginia is. Good night !

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:02:15 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Night linca

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Wow, Texas is almost tied on what I suppose is early voting results...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama takes Michigan, New York and Wisconsin.

McCain takes North Dakota.  Also takes Kansas, and one or two others.

Arizona is too close to call.

Texas too early.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:04:19 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
The New Mexico Senate race has been called for Udall (D).

No surprise.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:11:56 PM EST
MSNBC data (none / 0)
Virginia is stabilizing for Obama at 3:15....

let's hope.. let's hope is over by 3:30.. please.....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC data (none / 0)
49:50 @ 67% - that's not looking too impossible.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:19:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
60% of Fairfax to go (none / 0)
Basically all of Appalachia and the Shenandoah Valley has reported.

There's still a bunch of small cities in the Tidewater to come to - Newport News, etc.

Its going to flip Obama in less than an hour.

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:53:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: 60% of Fairfax to go (none / 0)
Ask and you shall receive : Obama up by 8000. Now, O's lead in NC is dwindling...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:55:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: MSNBC data (none / 0)
Yes, it's closing fast.  I'm still a little freaked.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:19:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Virginia has closed to 50/49, McCain leading by about 28,000 compared with over 100,000 before.  Still waiting on Fairfax and Arlington.

Alexandria kicked ass for Obama.  (WOOOO!  ARLINGTON SUCKS!  ARLINGTON SUCKS!)  Come on, you other NoVa fucks, back us the hell up!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:18:41 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Arlington was slipping virginia to McCain.. it seems ,a ccordign to Chuck Todd, it ahs stabilized..

at this point if there is no swing Virginia goes to Obama..

We are discussing now about the mandate.. the numbers in florida, georgia, North Carolina and North Dakota make it look that it will not be a landslide.

Arizona and Indiana point towars a landslide....

half a landslide?

A pleasure  

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
VA now within 12K.

I'd guess a respectable win of 330-350 seems likely now - not quite a resounding mandate, but good enough for the job.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:32:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
12,000 now, at 71%. Looks like it's going to be closed.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
it is going to be Obama for sure... closer than  the polls predicted... but clearer than one hour ago whe it looked like McCain was almost there...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
OHIO!!

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:23:21 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 4)
WOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

OHIO FUCKING DID IT!@@@@!  I take back all the bad shit I said about them.  OHIO FUCKING DID IT!!!!!!!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:24:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 4)
Yeah, that's it! What a historic night. Nastarovje, tovarish!

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
OHIO TO OBAMA MOTHAFUCKAS!!!!!!!!!

YEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:23:26 PM EST
MSNBC CALLS OHIO (none / 1)
It is 3:20!!! MSNBC calls Ohio.... can we believe it????

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:23:46 PM EST
OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 1)


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:26:41 PM EST
Re: OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 1)
It's over right ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 1)
Unless McCain flips California.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:34:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 0)
Yes.

There's no way McCain wins without Ohio.

Now the question is how much Obama wins (EV and popular vote,) how many Senate seats switch, and how many House seats flip.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 0)
(and props 1 and 8 in California)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 0)
Indiana is still too close, 50/49, Obama 25,000 votes behind at 75% reporting, with quite possibly enough left in Lake county (now at 41%).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:50:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: OHIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 0)
CNN projecting ohio too now

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:35:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Being dragged away to a neighborhood block party celebration.

Back in a couple of hours.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:46:20 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Have fun.  And hurry back!  Much partying to do.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:49:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama did it. He's going to take Virginia (now ahead), North Carolina and Florida too.

Indiana is still a nailbiter. Now less than 5,000 votes behind with 86% reporting.

Now let's see what the Senate is doing, 4 dem pickups so far. Franken is now running ahead of Coleman in MN, but only 4% reported. Chambliss does seem to have pulled it off comfortably in Georgia. Too bad. McConnell also wins against Lunsford. But maybe there's an upset in the cards somewhere else.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Virginia with a 1127 voters spread...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:51:30 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
it is Obama.. by two points at this point for the  end of the night if you project democratic counties of 2004 with a slight Obama increase... crunching the numbers..

It is a 2% win....I predict that at 4:00

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:01:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama has taken the lead in Virginia.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 09:57:12 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I repeat je jej ej eje Virginia is Obama by two points...

You saw it here first...

florida is Obama by 4-5% if nothing significantly changes along the night.

It is a good margin, a fair vistory but it does not seem a landslide...

Indiana is the only real toss-up.. plus Montana which I will crucnh the numbers as I get them..

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:04:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
My dear, kcurie.  A black guy with a "Muslim-sounding" name seems poised to win the presidency.  If that ain't a mandate on its own, I don't know what is.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:07:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I worte mandate.. sorry I meant landslide.. landslide..

it is a clear mandate.. sure.. I meant landslide..
it does not seem a landslide...

No southern state beside florida, not even arkansas, no west-virginia, no georgia..

only Indiana which is too clsoe to call and maybe Montana... half a landslide if they go to Obama.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
A more impressive mandate in the popular vote would have been useful. It doesn't look like it's going to be anywhere near the 7-8% we were promised.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I have not done the maths as in virginia, Indiana and Florida.. but it can reach a 2-3% of the total for obama (4-6% of Obama over McCain).. so it could reach numbers close to 7%.

Bu  10% for Obama seems out of the question.. and that what I called a landlisde a 55-45%... now it seems far.. unless New York and California vote like... huuuuge.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:17:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Throw TBG in the pool!  He's harshing my buzz...

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
It actually should expand out a fair bit.  We still don't have a whole helluva lot from the blue states that have been called, and Obama's going to walk out of Cal with a big margin.

To put it into perspective: I went to bed around this time in 2004.  Kerry was down about 10.  I woke up to find Kerry down 2.5.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:25:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama wins Iowa.  McCain wins Utah.  Montana is Too Close to Call.  Nevada is Too Early to Call.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:01:20 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I think Florida and Indiana are going Obama.

Also, I think some of those Nebraska EVs are very possible too.

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:02:32 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
How come the networks haven't called Mississipi yet !?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
They haven't called Nebraska or South Dakota either.  Montana is Too Close to Call.

Means Obama's outperforming the exit polls in MS, NE and SD.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Unfortunately Kleeb is underperforming Obama (at 44 to Obama's 47). So it looks like 58 is going to be the maximum.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
You ask and they provide.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:09:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Florida yes.. not Indiana.. not the numbers and projections I am watching ..it is still a 1% Obama win over the toal (a 2% of Obama over McCain).. too close.

By the way Virginia is 2% over the total so, it should be 4% of Obama over McCain.

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:08:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 10)
Hey!  Hi!  

<waving from California>

Hugs all around, to whoever's here!!!  I'm just running back and forth between the computer, TV, and phone.  

Voting went well today.  We honked and waved to a few clusters of "No on 8" people, everyone grinning and happy.  We were all ready to yell at any "Yes on 8" people, but we didn't see any.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:10:45 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
You guys get to finish the job, Izzy.  Kick some ass for us.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:20:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I'm pretty sure people are still standing in lines in South Central, and it's still half an hour before the polls close.  So we're doing our best!

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:23:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
right it's all tied down there so time for bed. see how it all shakes out in the morning.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:22:27 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Have a good night, ceebs.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
carry on having a good night there too.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Nate Silver says Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada are likely to go for Obama.  NC is leaning Obama.

So he has it at O353-163M with IN and MO to be decided.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:22:40 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Not so much NC, I think - the O lead is closing.

But IN is looking likely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Possibly not NC, but we've still got a good bit of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) to come in, and there isn't much McCain stuff left.

Obama's lead in Virginia has expanded to nearly 50,000.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:34:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Well - I'm done. I'm supposed tp be in London tomorrow, so I should have been asleep hours ago.

Enjoy all tomorrow's parties. :)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:36:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Have a good night and fun in London!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:38:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
O's lead is actually growing again in NC.  Back to 10,000.  Still waiting on that last 43% of Charlotte, which is a good chunk.  McCain is, as best I can tell, completely out of Appalachian votes.  There are a few red counties, but they're very small, and there's still one county that should be blue-ish to come in up near Research Triangle.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I see charlotte compensate with other red coutnies  still with no repor..

And most of the heavily democratic conties are over..actually all of them except for Charlotte... unless something weird happens it should be for McCain...

again Charlotte can go so hevily for Obama that it compensates the loss and the still repuiblan counties coming...

I hope you are right.. but I do not count on it.. it will bs a nice surprise.

i do count on Indiana...

so if I am as right as when I predict H. Clinton win, North Carloina will go to Obama and Indiana to McCain je jej e:)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Completely agree.

I gave up on North carolina long time ago.. North carolina is going to McCain except for some weird swing...

florida, vriginia and Indiana look Obama.. Indiana still the closest one with even less 1% for Obama if counties are projected...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama is now ahead in Indiana. However, if the CNN map is right, Wayne county in the east still has to report and it might be more friendly towards McCain. Still some votes left in the cities, too, though.

Wouldn't give up on NC. Charlotte is only 57% in, and Obama has a lead of over 90,000 among them. The state is 87% in, and Obama is now down 22,000 votes.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:58:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Mc Cain should pick up 15000 votes easily from the red east coutnies which have not reported...

I will take a new look and see if there is a path to victory in NC.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:02:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama's taking 35% of Cubans in Florida, nearly doubling Kerry.  Highest a Dem has taken in God-knows-how-long.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:26:42 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
McCain finally wins South Dakota.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:37:50 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Larry Kissell won the race in NC-8.  Woohoo!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:40:54 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Kos says he's hearing McCain will concede shortly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:53:06 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
CNN is (finally) calling it for Obama.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:02:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Yep.  297-146.  CNN calls Virginia for Obama too.  First time Virginia has voted Dem since 1964.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
Obama is the next president.  Olbermann getting choked up.  Chicago (hi, poemless!) going insane.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:00:58 PM EST
The Kids Are Alright (none / 0)
Youth share of the vote today: 18%.

Record turnout.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:02:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Oh yes by the way.. with all the talk about Indiana and NC.. Obama is the next president of the US at 5:00 am Spain time

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Olbermann ain't the only one...

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:10:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Nope, he's not.  Have to confess to being a pansy and getting choked up.

Still haven't quite come to believe it's over.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:14:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Nice four hour nap and a shower and I hear shouting here in the hostel. Time for a celebration dinner.

Already had a chat with some folks about how this should make being a traveling American a smidge easier.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
by das monde on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Florida called for Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:13:23 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
And McCain is giving a concession speech...

where was that McCain during the campaign... it is incredible, classy, touching the american narrative with wonderful undertones...cutting any woos...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Yes, good speech by McCain. Obviously not an easy audience. Well, now he doesn't have to deal with them (the base) anymore.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Glad that wasn't the McCain we say during the campaign.  It would have made it a lot more difficult to pull this off.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:50:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Would have had a harder time with the bottom feeders, though.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:54:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I don't know - I didn't like that speech.  Especially the bit about it being a victory for African-Americans.  And the crowd seemed... unpleasant.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:24:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain speech.... (4.00 / 2)
I have heard like 5 concession speeches in US politics.. that was the best by far....

Better than Kerry.. and even Gore (given the circumstance).. better than Dole and Bush...

best.concession.speech.ever, one has to wonder, if this is the real McCain where was he before? and would it have such an awful president in the international arena?  Who is Mc Cain.. the bomb bomb bomb Iran or the one now which signaled in this speech that he is absolutely behind Obama on his Iran policies and Afganistan polcies (that was the under-narrrative... no doubt about it.. and the corwd there got it and woooed it)..

I just do not get it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:35:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: McCain speech.... (none / 0)
AP via google: Text of McCain's concession speech
My friends, we have -- we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly.
A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Senator Barack Obama to congratulate him.
(BOOING)
Please.
To congratulate him on being elected the next president of the country that we both love.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 03:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: McCain speech.... (none / 0)
I have asked myself if McCain had won, and Obama had said the same thing, how would his supporters have reacted.

I was impressed by McCain's concession speech (what I heard of it).  It showed so much grace and character that were not apparent these past several months.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 08:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
Well I am glad to say we elected Sen. Obama tonight!  I hope we made you guys proud!  It was two years of hard work but it finally happened!

"The rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated."
by MicahT0078 (micahmatthews@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:34:33 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Anything happen while I was away?

:-D

Obama won it.  

Now we have to rack up some Popular Vote numbers and get that win percentage up.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:40:44 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
We could still come up with 378 EVs, actually.  Looks like we may just pull it out in NC and IN.  No idea on MO, but it's close.  O will win Nevada, I suspect.  Then Montana.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
We really need to crush these buggers.

There are 40 EV's out there: Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana.

We should get NC and Missouri which is 26 making 364.

Montana would raise it to 367 -- which looks like the max possible total.

Oh well.  I'll take 338 and hope for the best.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:48:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
His lead in the popular vote is growing at a pretty brisk pace.  As Cal has started rolling in, it's up almost half a million already.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Virginia actually wound up not being that close.  Obama's going to win it by over 100,000 votes.  52/47 or 51/48.  Roughly as the exits predicted.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:54:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I love being right 2% over the half.. 4% lead.... :)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:01:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Indiana is O....no change..
NC. it is 100% franklin county plus half Craven county against 85% of Washington county....

It is the mother of all toss-ups... iowa 2004 style at the end? or will frnalinc ounty just give an O surprise?

Montana projections seem to indicate it goes McCain...but nothing for sure yet.

And O speaks...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama is ahead in Indiana by around 15,000 with 97% reporting.  

 

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:07:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Indiana is long gone for McCain.. it should be called already...

and Montana looks bad... sighh

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:42:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
We're huddled around radios in the hidden corners of the world, kcurie.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:12:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Watching Bobbleheads on BBC World (none / 1)
Very bad. Back to Al Jazeera. Ah, Obama is coming out to speak, finally.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:58:32 PM EST
Re: Watching Bobbleheads on BBC World (none / 0)
The people at the party insisted on watching CNN.  God they were annoying.  


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:01:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Watching Bobbleheads on BBC World (none / 0)
The people on CNN, not the people at the party.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:05:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Watching Bobbleheads on BBC World (none / 0)
The commentary is so unnecessary. Al Jazeera seems better, so far.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:29:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 2)
Looking like it's going to be a 100% Democratic New Mexico.

Teague is leading 53/47 with 72% reporting in CD-2 Pearce's (R) old seat.  Heinrich is leading 58/42 in Heather (Dingbat Nipple Gate) Wilson's seat in CD-1 but only 34% have reported.  Lujan is crushing his opponent up in CD-3 51/36 with 56% reporting.

Udall was projected to be the winner for the open Senate slot.  He is now leading Pearce by a mere 18 points: 59/41 with 57% reporting.

The only worry is CD-1.  That district has a history of moving for the Dems early and then the GOP coming from behind and eking out a win.  

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 11:58:53 PM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Teague has won.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:23:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Called it for Heinrich as well.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Perriello is pulling it out in VA-5.

Now that's weird.

And Nye is looking good in VA-2.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:36:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama seems to be following the standard Dem path in Missouri:  keep it close until the urban precincts report and then nudge a victory.

Right now he is behind by 2% with 86% reporting.  This is when McCaskill made her move in the 06 race.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:10:44 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Obama has apparently won NC.

Up to 353.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:14:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
YES!!!!!

COME ON INDIANA!!!!!!!!!

COME ON MISSOURI!!!!!!!!!


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:17:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
I think we're going to get Indiana.  We're now up by over 15,000.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:22:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
50/49 in Missouri, McCain leading with 91% reporting.

A nail biter, as usual.

Tho' we've got history on our side.  Missouri has voted for the winning candidate in every election since god knows when.

(Let's not break the streak!)

:-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:27:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Wow, it closed quite a bit then.  Awesome.

Meanwhile, Obama's lead in the popular vote has expanded to 4.  Still growing with a heck of a lot of Cal left to come in.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:31:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
argghghghghghgh I was wrong by 10000 votes....

NC goes to Obama.. my predictions powers through the window again....... well I must say is only 10.000 and that I called indiana correctly..

And regarding Montana and Missouri.. I have not the freaking idea ... in normal tiems Montana would slowly drift away and Missouri slowly drift in... but I know nothing anymore..

A pleasure...


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:53:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speech (4.00 / 2)
Got people thinking about the long term in the last part. Nice touch. Long Now-like. The speech was slow to get off its feet, otherwise.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:21:34 AM EST
Re: Speech (4.00 / 2)
It resonated with this sappy blogger.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:25:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Speech (4.00 / 3)
Certainly not one of his better speeches, but I was a little too worried about him getting shot to pay attention.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Speech (4.00 / 2)
Al Jazeera commentary: "speaking from behind what appeared to be bullet proof glass walls"
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:31:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Speech (none / 0)
Yes, I noticed that immediately.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:33:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Speech (none / 0)
Standard protection protocol for a President.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:46:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Speech (none / 1)
Should he borrow the Popemobile?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 01:47:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 1)
Ok.Show is over now!Let's go back to reality...and that is as Bernard on MOA said rightly:
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2008/11/election-result.html?cid=137758776#comment-137758776
An Obama win will make little difference for the world. McCain would probably bomb other people than Obama will bomb. To the folks who will have their limbs teared off, to prove the U.S. president's copulation capacities to the U.S. population, that will make no difference at all.

Sorry for such pessimism. But Obama did not beat the system - he simply was more effective using it than McCain

by vbo on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 12:50:41 AM EST
Shall I open a new thread? (none / 0)


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 01:12:51 AM EST
Re: Shall I open a new thread? (none / 0)
Not for me.

I've got to go beddy-bye as the wine, tequila, and more wine has finally hit.

Good night all.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 01:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 4)
Eight long, long, long years over.  Four hard, hard years ahead.

I know of no one better than Obama to face the challenges.

by Jagger on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 01:14:51 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (4.00 / 7)
In my first presidential election LBJ had a massive landslide and I felt enormous gratification, sadly turned to rage within a year over escalation in Viet Nam.  That so jaundiced my views that I failed to adequately credit him for Civil Rights, Voting Rights and Medicare.

I remember the night in 1973 when Tom Bradley was elected Mayor in the City of Angles--another very gratifying result, as was watching John Dean shove the knife into Richard Nixon's belly during Watergate: "My momma didn't raise me to be a scapegoat!"  

I had great hope for Jimmy Carter at the time of his inauguration, turned to despair over the Iranian Hostage Crisis.  At one time I felt that the lives of several million Iranians would be an appropriate price for having forced the USA to endure Reagan.  Good thing I wasn't in charge.

While Clinton's triangulation politics were at times massively annoying, it was always a pleasure to watch one of his State of the Union Speeches.  Wonderful command of strategy and detail.  And I loved his humbling of Gingrich over the government shutdown.  He  was like a stag holding a pack of wolves at bay, though I was chagrined that he exposed himself to the damage of the Lewinski affair.  At least he continued to be effective in many areas during and after this disaster.

Obama's victory is the third greatest ever for a Democrat.  We don't know what Obama will accomplish, but I will not refuse to hope for much and to wish him well.  The times call forth the man and he has dramatic possibilities.  He has outstanding leadership capabilities at a time when they are most needed.  let us hope he can bring them to bear and bring himself to greatness.  He has the opportunity to be one of the great presidents of the USA.  Let us hope, for all of  our sakes, that he seizes that opportunity.  The world can be a better place, and, for the sake of our progeny, it must become a much better place.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 01:56:41 AM EST
Re: US Election Open Thread (none / 0)
Ok. If hadn't been for my damned server that still has me off-line at home for all the traffic last night, this thread could easily have topped 400. Sorry I missed the show here but what the fuck, Obama won.

At this point I'll get myself a fucking wireless connection. Bastards!

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 04:12:44 AM EST
It's over (4.00 / 2)
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Nov 5th, 2008 at 07:17:22 AM EST
US Election Open Thread | 385 comments (385 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)


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