The Economist is against a "Green New Deal"

by Jerome a Paris
Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 05:57:30 AM EST

Green, easy and wrong
Why a verdant New Deal would be a bad deal

Mr Obama’s commitment to solving climate change is devoutly to be welcomed. There is also a case for giving the economy a boost through government spending. But combining the two by subsidising renewable energy is, like many easy answers, the wrong solution.

(...)

Subsidies are more popular but both theory and practice argue against them. Subsidising clean energy requires politicians to decide on the best way of delivering it, and their judgment is likely to be worse than the market’s.

Beyond the laugh coming from any comment about the "judgement of the market" today, that editorial is scary in how wrong it is. It gives two exemples of silly subsidies: ethanol in the US and solar panels in Germany - and that's it. One exemple which has nothing to do with renewable energy (ethanol has been pushed by agro-business, not by enviromentally-minded groups), and one exemple that patently ignores the effect German subsidies have had on (i) the extraordinary build up of the German industry and jobs in that sector (of course, that's not a valid policy objective as far as the Economist is concerned) and (ii) the fall in price of technology as subsidies allowed more investment and R&D to take place in a predictable environment.

The article of course ignores the fact (pointed out in the Economist itself) that feed-in tariffs are actually generating money rather than costing any, as the wind power they support brings prices down for customers (thanks to the magic of marginal cost pricing under market mechanisms) by more than they cost. Despite permanent moaning about dependency on Russian gas, and praising Obama's climate changing policies, it ignores the strategic and economic value of moving off fossil fuels for power generation. Its cornucopian outlook on oil and gas reserves also makes it ignore the notion that doing that would also reduce the risk of energy shortages at some point in the future. The mere insurance value of such policies is, incomprehensibly, discounted - as is the option value of having an energy source whose price is fixed and certain for the next 25 years (you'd think the Economist would find it appropriate to support renewable on such suitably arcane grounds of economic theory: they disappoint me here)

More importantly, it ignores the fact that supporting things like home energy efficiency improvements, public transport development and grid strengthening are investments, not consumption; they have both short term and longlasting positive effects: in the short term, they create jobs in the sectors with the direst need (construction); in the long run, they make it possible to reduce fossil fuel usage on a permanent basis.

But beyond the rational arguments, I wonder why they'd even come out against such a plan. That they are against subsidies rings hollow when they supported the $700 bailout of greedy-bankers-and-no-one-else. That they are against the judgement of politicians is silly when, in the same article, they support "governments discouraging people and compaines from emitting carbon dioxide" via cap-and-trade systems (even if it's a market mechnism, there still is a political choice as to where the cap is set).

So this sounds just like spite that all their cherished ideological preferences are being mocked by reality as the economic system built on them falls apart, and they just don't want anyone to demonstrate that public action works better than their selfish blinkered proposals.

It's mostly petty, but given their oversized residual influence on decision-makers, it's still incredibly irresponsible.


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Reading the Economist? Are you self medicating for low blood pressure or something?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 06:01:07 AM EST
I know how you feel. The fact remains that they represent (an increasingly hard version of) the stance of our elites, and both reflect and contribute to shape their thinking.

I see no other way to change this, from where I stand, than ferociously and repeatedly pointing out how that stance is partial, ideological and wrong. We cannot afford not to make oursleves heard over their loudpseaker.

If you have a better way to sink them into irrelevance, pray tell us!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 06:27:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You keep at them Jerome :-)

Cf. why Chomsky continues to read and criticise the NYT (where appropriate - he doesn't damn everything in it, just as he doesn't even with the WSJ - which he says has some good reporting, though the editorials are  "cartoons").

Are you sending this to them ?

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:09:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry to seem such a Chomsky acolyte, but he so often gets it right, and gets it out - if not to the kind of audiences that the Economist, NYT, etc. have. The attack on government conceals the reality of government's key role in developing capitalism:


Noam Chomsky: ... The New York Times happened to have an article by its economic correspondent in its magazine section [in August] about Obama's economic programs. He talked about Reagan as the model of passionate commitment to free markets and reduction of the role of the state, and so on.

Where are these people? Reagan was the most protectionist president in post war American history. In fact, more protectionist than all others combined. He virtually doubled protective barriers. He brought in the Pentagon to develop the "factory of the future" to teach backward American management how to catch up on the Japanese lead in production. SEMATECH ["Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology"] was formed.

If it was not for Reagan's protectionism and calling in of state power, we would not have a steel industry, or an automobile industry, or a semi-conductor industry or whatever they protected. They reindustrialized America by protectionism and state intervention.

All of this is washed away by propaganda as though it never happened. It is very interesting to look at a place like MIT which was right in the center of these developments. My department -- you are teaching a course in the Military Industrial Complex -- my department is an example of it.

...
The electronics lab, along with the closely connected Lincoln Labs, was just developing the basis of the modern high tech economy. In those days, the computer was the size of this set of offices and vacuum tubes were blowing all over the place [with] computer printouts, paper running everywhere.

By the time they finally got computers down to the size of a marketable mainframe, some of the directors of the project pulled out and formed DEC [Digital Equipment Corporation], the first main frame producer.

IBM was in there at government expense learning how to move from punch cards to electronic computers. By the early l960s IBM was capable of producing its own computers, but no one could buy them. They were too expensive. So they were bought by the National Security Agency.

Bell Labs did develop transistors. That is about the only example you can think of a significant part of the high tech system which came out of private enterprise. But that is a joke too!

Bell Labs were able to run a great laboratory because they had a monopoly, so they could use monopoly pricing powers to set up a great laboratory. They worked on technology. Their transistor producer was Western Electric, who could not sell them on the market; they were too expensive. So the government bought about 100 percent of advanced transistors.

Finally, of course, all of this gets to the point where you can market them privately. It was not until the l980s after 30 years of development essentially in the state sector that these things became marketable commodities and Bill Gates could get rich.

http://tech.mit.edu/V128/N51/chomsky.html



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 11:11:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the part that I don't get is why pay attention to The Economist or the WSJ? In other words I have the same question as Colman.

I've read little from The Economist - only once from cover-to-cover, last May. I've read occasionally from the WSJ over the last 50 years. Maybe I'm so far left that their take is irrelevant to me, but it all strikes me as so many cigarette or automobile commercials.

An ex-Pentagon technocrat, Chuck Spinney, wrote an interesting article this week; his analysis of Obama's victory involved an "M&M" strategy: Motherhood and Mismatch. Basically, he wrote that Obama took a Motherhood issue, such as healthcare, established a position, and let McCain flail away in opposition. McCain's attacks then created the contrast that the electorate needed in order to recognize the differences. Point being that maybe we should simply establish and publicize our positions and let events drive WSJ to attack us.

It may be the case that such institutions will never 'debase' themselves to a similar extent as McCain did, but I feel that direct responses to their positions are almost a waste of time. They may not live in impregnable fortresses, but they certainly have strong defenses and substantial resources.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 11:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let us shout loudly:
The market does not make judgement, people do.
The market does not make decisions, people do.
"Leaving it to the market" means leaving judgement and decisions to market players, in proportion to the amount of capital they control.
"Leaving it to the market" means one Euro one Vote.
"Leaving it to the market" means abdicating policy decisions to unelected persons, and as such is anti-democratic.

(And even worse, as influence from capital is probably higher order than a linear function.)

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 06:10:30 AM EST
Together with some former AIG execs, i have established both SIVs and a market for CDOs in the fiberglass insulation sector.  Goldman Sacher-Maso, which has a need for more insulation surrounding their executive suites around the globe, has decided to underwrite.  In this way we will prepare to defend against the cold weather brought by the terrorist penguins from the south (h/t colman) in their inexorable march northward, while diminishing the use natural gas to keep the trading rooms warm.

I am certain the Economist will support this new market.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 06:33:20 AM EST
A green New Deal? | Green, easy and wrong | The Economist
Subsidies are more popular but both theory and practice argue against them. Subsidising clean energy requires politicians to decide on the best way of delivering it, and their judgment is likely to be worse than the market's. America's huge ethanol subsidies, for instance, have led to overinvestment in the businesses, which is now experiencing a sharp bust, and have helped drive up the price of food, with painful consequences for the world's poor. Germany's generous solar subsidies covered the roofs of one of the world's most sunless countries with solar cells, thus pushing up the price of silicon and reducing the cost-effectiveness of solar power in countries where it actually makes sense. Both subsidies promoted the wrong technologies; both wasted taxpayers' money.

These people are fucking idiots who have no idea how markets work. The German subsidies are pushing down the price of solar cells because the market is getting large enough for scale effects. And... you can actually export solar panels. Most solar cell companies are now in Germany, for a very good reason.

So green industrial policy is smart industrial policy. As long as you don't invest in dead ends, like biofuels or (eventually, I think) fuel cells.

The economist denies this for ideological reasons only. It believes the state should not be in the business of allocating resources. Instead, it thinks it should be the exclusive province of the banks.

(the 'market' being another word for banks under financial capitalism)

We've seen how well that works.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 06:35:28 AM EST
 They're not "fucking idiots" - unfortunately. Never underestimate the enemy. Jerome's point about "spite" seems more apt.

To support your point about Germany, which is going to reduce subsidies:


While the news surrounding the subsidy changes have sent stocks see-sawing, they haven't created large shifts and in many cases have increased share market values. The drop in subsidies, in my mind, is a clear indicator that the industry is now at a point where their success is guaranteed and no longer needs the help of the government to be profitable. This is evinced by the fact that following the announcements of cuts, Bosch said it will be investing over 500 million € for a controlling share of Ersol, a major solar manufacturer, and might even put in nearly double that for full control. Clearly an industry in crisis would not even contemplate such a move.

http://ecolectic.org/?p=187



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:21:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plausible enough. The point they are making is exceedingly stupid and goes against most of the thinking behind own their free market credo (international competition brings prices down, markets are not a zero-sum game, etcetera).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 08:49:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that's always been an excuse, not a credo. The Econo's real credo is that rich people should be allowed to do whatever they like, especially if it makes them richer.

Responsibility and long term planning have never been a part of that, because they cramp their ability to pile up the cash and party.

The problem with a Green Strategy is that opportunities for making a big stinking pile of cash are more limited than they would be in other areas - which is not to say that they're not available, but no one is going to get as much of an adrenaline rush from building a windfarm as from building a planet-spanning derivatives empire which could implode at any moment.

Green energy is measured, intelligent, sensible and mature, which makes it utterly the wrong choice if you're one of the Econo's consumers of financial crack.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 08:57:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. And there is a turf war of sorts that mirrors the greed motive, as I stated above and metatone also indicated. They want their customers, the bankers in the City and in NYC, to make the decisions on how society allocates its resources, not the goverment.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 09:04:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the problems with wind-farm development is that it is so boringly predictable and secure - about as exciting as putting your money in a (secure) bank.  So where are the speculators and risk takers going to get their windfall gains (sic), adrenaline rush and big bonuses?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 09:41:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"The point they are making is exceedingly stupid"

So, most people now know - painfully, was the whole "set the markets free" ideology, but some pretty smart people managed to convince a great many not entirely stupid others that this was correct almost to the brink of disaster.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice. Blog - Nice Experience

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 10:42:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a common thread of a talking point here, from Tyler Cowen (can't find the exact blog post just now) through Edmund Phelps in the FT yesterday to this Economist article and a number of other right-facing bloggers.

European Tribune - Comments - The Economist is against a "Green New Deal"

Subsidising clean energy requires politicians to decide on the best way of delivering it, and their judgment is likely to be worse than the market's.

Here the precise topic is green investment, elsewhere it is transport or other infrastructure investments mooted as a fiscal response to the large recession that is incoming.

Everywhere, the chant is the same "politicians make bad choices, leave it to the market," "public investment crowds private enterprise out of the economy" and various other similar tropes.

This is their spin, this is the new party line on keeping their economic mythology alive. It's not primarily about rejecting green investment, it's all about rejecting any kind of "New Deal."

The greatest sadness for our political society is that barriers to entry and incumbent advantage in the media markets are so powerful. Hence, despite eagerly pushing the policies that have created the crash that surrounds us, Cowen, Phelps, the FT, The Economist and all the rest get a big platform to tell us that there is no solution, that the economy is like the weather and we should not try to save ourselves, but kneel and pray, perhaps before a frieze of Friedman and Hayek, pray for tax cuts and deliverance.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 06:39:52 AM EST
Well, I don't think it's just about either Public or Private any more.

This presentation

Introducing the PetroTrust

went down really well in Teheran and of course envisages the use of legal frameworks other than "the Corporation" which is in fact what makes the Private sector "Private".

I got to see all sorts of interesting people, including ministers, two heads of national corporations  and the Chairman of the Majlis Energy Commission, and was asked to do an outline proposal for a how a global market in gas (an Iran, Qatar, Russia "Gas OPEC" meeting took place the day after I left) could look - which I have done, but it's on hold 'til I sort out a couple of commercial issues with them.

The market I have in mind is a market operating on a "Not for Loss" basis, with producers/consumers primary and traders secondary.

It incorporates a proposal for "unitisation" of gas using Units redeemable in gas. Such unitisation would replace the need for secured debt finance and create an entirely new global market.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:04:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
excellent comment, in many ways.

Metatone:

This is their spin, this is the new party line on keeping their economic mythology alive. It's not primarily about rejecting green investment, it's all about rejecting any kind of "New Deal."

seems they don't have such a virulent attitude to nuclear and oil getting a leg-up, or do they?

Metatone:

but kneel and pray, perhaps before a frieze of Friedman and Hayek, pray for tax cuts and deliverance.

LOL!

If'Madness is the absence of work'(Foucault), then Sanity is the presence of play..

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 08:25:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They already own nukes and oil. They won't own so much of Green.

They're not likely to be happy about this.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 08:58:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
they've played every disinformation card they have, and to no avail, people aren't so dumb as not to hate the energy situation as it is, when they see their bills over the moon.

this is their nightmare, having to watch people smash the manacles that kept them enslaved to the 'big boys', keeping them fat, while little people suffer.

If'Madness is the absence of work'(Foucault), then Sanity is the presence of play..

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 11:20:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is their spin, this is the new party line on keeping their economic mythology alive. It's not primarily about rejecting green investment, it's all about rejecting any kind of "New Deal."

That's fine.  The farther back they have to wind up moving the goalposts, the better off we'll find ourselves.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 10:07:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Uh, well, the market's judgment on this matter has kind of sucked forever, so let's try the government's for a while, shall we?

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 10:05:27 AM EST


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