Lisbon. Is. Doomed.

by Colman
Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:23:14 AM EST

It seems increasingly unlikely that the Lisbon Treaty will be passed by a second referendum in Ireland any time soon. This is why:
MARY HARNEY was last night warned that her decision to cut a cancer vaccine initiative will result in the deaths of 80 women.

Under heavy pressure in the Dáil to reinstate the scheme to protect 12-year-old girls from cervical cancer in later life, the Health Minister insisted she had to divert resources to other medical priorities.

HPV vaccinations were due to start nation-wide next year. The programme has been suspended to save €10 million in a health service in which it is widely believed there is huge wastage on unnecessary clerical, management and administration staff: they merged 13 regional health boards into one and there were few redundancies - dealing with the fallout from that would be harder than endangering some lives that might otherwise be saved. The decision was announced on Tuesday in the apparent hope that it would be drowned out in the news of the US election.

I've lost count of the stupid things the government has done in its latest round of cost-cutting but here are some of the high-lights.


  • They initially imposed a 1% levy on all earned income (rather than an ideologically unsound "tax-rise"), including the income of people on the minimum wage who would be normally exempt from tax. They were forced to u-turn on this and exempt those with income below €17,500, though a tax consultant friend of Sam's suggests that the administrative cost of imposing the levy on the low-paid was prohibitive anyway.
  • They presented the removal of automatic free health care for the over 70s in a stunningly inept way, causing huge uncertainty and making it seem that large numbers of older people would end up paying thousands of euros a year. After some fiddling they've had to u-turn on this as well. 15,000 people protested on the streets on Dublin about this and were stories of hundreds at rallies singing "We shall overcome" to drown out ministers.
  • They're cutting education, including cutting back the number of support teachers - specialist language teachers for immigrant children for instance - and allowing class sizes to grow in direct defiance of a key election promise. Their rumblings about third level got 10,000 student to protest after the pensioner protest finished up. Traffic was bad that day.
There are lots of other stupidities - snip away at easy bits of public spending under cover of the financial apocalypse while refusing to raise taxes because, according to the Minister for Finance, "Increases on income, above and beyond the levy proposed in the Finance Bill, would amount to a substantial disincentive to labour in the year ahead". Did people not work when the top tax rate was 42%? 43%? 44%?

In any case, the public is not in the mood to punisg the vulnerable for our budgetary problems, and the next, best opportunities to express that are the local and European elections next year and a re-vote on the Lisbon Treaty. I imagine the government parties will do badly in the elections and it will be easy for to No campaign to harness the anti-government feeling in a treaty campaign, especially with the Commission calling for further austerity and starting a formal censure process against Ireland for budget overruns.

About the only thing that can save Lisbon would be an early general election, but the chances of Fianna Fail falling on their sword in the interests of the country or the EU are zero: it's not in their make-up.

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The only silver lining is that the Progressive Democrats, Mary Harney's party who took a serious beating at the last election, are about to disband, killing the only party that is formally right-wing here: Fianna Fail blows with the wind, so they should be left-wing within a few years.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:25:40 AM EST
I don't write about Irish politics much because it's so fucking depressing.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:29:35 AM EST
Sounds like why I don't write about British politics much.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 07:45:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds like why I haven't written about the French PS today.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 09:05:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least they tried to hide their infighting behind the US election...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misčres
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 09:07:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I used to think that holding a re-run of the referendum at the same time as the EP and Local elections in June would be a good idea.  It would guarantee a higher turnout and reduce griping about the extra cost of a re-run.  Irish voters have also been quite good at being discriminating in their vote - voting down an unpopular Government or engaging in protest votes whilst also supporting progressive referenda/candidates.

However, like you, I am now not so sure anymore.  Perversely the sheer incompetence of the Government will lead to some looking to Europe more for salvation.  The financial crisis has been a salutary lesson in how exposed we are to forces beyond our control - and the need for a more authoritative and timely response from the EU.

However we are reaching the limits of rationality in all this.  People will vote against everyone and everything associated with the Government if this goes on.  Now if the EU were to do something really positive like proposing a harmonisation of health benefits in all member states - perhaps by adding a provision to the Charter of Fundamental Rights - then all of this could change. We have to add something to the Treaty which people can see to be of immediate and concrete benefit to them - rather than as something needed by the European elite.

But I wouldn't be holding my breath on that score either.

Vote McCain for war without gain

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Nov 7th, 2008 at 08:09:59 AM EST
The thing which i dont understand is, that the Lisbon Treaty ("imperfect" as it is) is actually still better then the Nice Treaty which stays in force. But because nearly no one in the general populations knows about it and no one tells.

But it seems that i "chose" the right time to leave Ireland this year after 5 years of living in Dublin.

by Kavalor (kavalorATwebDOTde) on Sat Nov 8th, 2008 at 07:30:05 AM EST
yep - the next few years won't be pretty

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat Nov 8th, 2008 at 09:37:35 AM EST
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