LQD: What is the Real Economy?

by redstar
Tue Dec 23rd, 2008 at 05:18:21 AM EST

For those of you who, like me, have been bemused by the use, by President Sarkozy among others, of the term "Real Economy," as set apart from the supposedly "fake," financial economy, of wolves rather than the polite lambs of the "real," "good" economy, there's a fascinating and brief deconstruction, by linguist Alain Rey, editor in chief of the French language dictionary Le Robert (equivalent to Websters in the English language), of the term in today's Humanité (oh how I love the English translation, saves the hassle!)

This about sums it up:

...what interested me in this affair is that the term "financial crisis" is a very old expression, and completely normal because there have often been financial crises, most frequently associated with an economic crisis as in 1929, but this is the first time I've heard tell of "the real economy". This expression supposes, and this is rather monstrous, that the economy can't be real in the world of finance. That there are thus two Capitalisms : a bad one that is in the process of collapsing, and a good one, which is "the real economy". The standard of living and buying power belong to the world of the real economy, because they represent realities of daily life far from the unreal world of finance. And this view is corroborated by more and more astronomical figures. When one speaks of 100,000 euros, we remain in a world that is still of human dimensions, even if we don't ourselves possess such sums of money. When you speak of a million euros, we are more likely in the world of the rich, of the powerful, of soccer players, of Johnny Hallyday. Such figures can cause bitterness or admiration, but they remain real. But when one speaks of 27 billion, or 270 billion, or 2,700 billion dollars in a global economy, we are in a completely virtual sphere. There is no longer any human significance possible.

Yet, Capitalism is a single reality. It is fictitious to speak of a real economy. Marx had an expression that I often quote because I find it absolutely brilliant. For all material objects, all manufactured things, as well as the daily life and the landscapes, we are in a world of signs that represent, according to him, "hieroglyphics of human labor." All true value, he says, comes from work. But today, in this crisis, we see that true value no longer comes from work. Instead, it comes from sheer speculation. To speculate means to act on your imaginination, with no basis in reality, without any control. One lends on loans, and then one speaks of loans on borrowing. This is the contrary of good sense and personal experience. Wages, factory closings, standard of living, are all rather stable expressions because they relate to ordinary experience and to daily life.

The world of the imaginary is crashing down before our eyes, and part of this imaginary world is the false dichotomy of the "real" and the "financial" economy. In our present, liberal system, they are the same, and when the financial comes crashing down, so will the real. The more quickly we realize this, and draw the necessary conclusions, especially on the left, the better.


There's a reason banks and insurers were nationalised in the past and kept that way. This is why. There's a reason key strategic industries, in education, housing development, energy, food production, telecommunications, transportation, security and defence were nationalised and owned collectively, not farmed out for the wealthy to make more on our backs only to be bailed out by us when the system came to its logical and inevitable crisis mode (for such crises are features, not bugs, in the liberal economic system). This crisis will remind us why.

I am amused by the use of the term real economy, I find myself using it sometimes too it has become so pervasive, but in reality, it is a denial of reality, the term "real economy," for the reality is the economic crisis we are entering is absolutely real, and intrinsically related to the real state of collapse of the financial markets which undergird the so-called real economy.

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I've been having some interesting conversations at the cafette at work lately. In our cafette, we have BFM, France's answer to CNBC, blaring all day, so lately it's news of the dollar/pound/CAC40/Dow Joness/Real Estate Markets/GNP crashing, interspersed with news of another rich Wall Street type making an obscene bonus for cheating those who theoretically (though this is debatable) trusted him (and it is primarily a "him").

A very Sarkozyste high level manager I recently overheard commenting along the lines of "whichever party can make those sons of bitches pay back what they've stolen will get my vote for life".

I'd like to think game would be on, but then, I'm not sure the Social Democratic types have the stomach for such measures that this would entail.  

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Tue Dec 23rd, 2008 at 05:36:21 AM EST
Marx referred to "Finance Capital" and this comprises the "Twin Peaks" of Equity and Debt, linked by an assumption that Money is Credit issued by Credit Institutions. Finance Capital may be viewed as a virtual layer of legal protocols based upon the "Real Economy" through concepts such as "Property". It is operated by financial intermediaries in their own interests, as we have seen.

None of this is necessary now that we have the direct connections of the Internet. "Peer to Peer" credit is not only possible, it has been around in Switzerland for almost 75 years in the form of the WIR. The possibility - indeed necessity - of Peer to Peer investment is also emerging through alternative frameworks to the hitherto dominant, but deeply inefficient "Corporation".

I think I differ from you in that I see the State - at least as currently constituted in the form of a Jacobin monolith - as part of the problem, not part of the solution.

What is needed IMHO is ownership in Common, rather than State ownership, and equitable sharing of the fruits of the Commons of land, non-renewable resources, and of knowledge, among other things.

In other words, I believe that we are about to dispense with the entire unnecessary layer of "rentiers" extracting rents as financial intermediaries. And I don't see a single shot being fired during this transition.

The existing system will wither on the vine as a new system evolves which "out-competes" it. Returns to rentiers are quite simply inefficient in the face of the Cooperative Advantage.

I disagree with the Marxist and conventional anthropocentric assumption that the Sun of Capital revolves around the Earth of Labour.

European Tribune - Comments - LQD: What is the Real Economy?

All true value, he says, comes from work.

 It is IMHO the relationship between individuals' Labour and Land, Energy, and Knowledge which has value.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Dec 23rd, 2008 at 07:17:29 AM EST
It's simple; the real economy is the one that produces real, tangible wealth, as opposed to the fake kind. Talking about the real economy is imply an acknowledgement that the financial world mostly produces fake money.

I've been using the notion of counterfeit money or a while now, as you may have noticed. The real economy is the one that does not create counterfei money. It does includes bits of finance (like mine, I tell myself).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 23rd, 2008 at 01:22:31 PM EST
Jerome a Paris:
The real economy is the one that does not create counterfeit money

Many would say that any credit created by credit institutions in excess of their capital base is "counterfeit" irrespective of purpose.

The fact that the purpose of creating "real" renewable energy assets is a noble one does not legitimise the source.

For national Treasuries to originate such credit (based upon taxation flows), managed by service-providers-formerly-known-as-banks, and with a charge made for any necessary guarantees - now that's a different ball game....


Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Dec 23rd, 2008 at 02:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Many would say that any credit created by credit institutions in excess of their capital base is "counterfeit" irrespective of purpose.

But if the loans represent claims on income from real capital goods - factories, railroads, irrigation ditches, tunnels - then why doesn't that qualify as a real "capital base?"

Basically, what the credit institution is saying when it makes a loan is that it believes that whatever it is lending for will increase the material wealth of society enough to justify creating new money. It's only when the bank is wrong (or lying) about this estimate that we have a problem, right?

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 26th, 2008 at 02:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
Basically, what the credit institution is saying when it makes a loan is that it believes that whatever it is lending for will increase the material wealth of society enough to justify creating new money. It's only when the bank is wrong (or lying) about this estimate that we have a problem, right?

Nope.

I think that it is the creation of credit to buy pre-existing assets (thereby typically inflating their price) that creates the "counterfeit" credit of which Jerome complains.

But the "counterfeit" credit certainly was asset-backed for the most part. It was just that it was created at such levels of interest, and on such terms, to such hopeless cases, that it was unrepayable.

Banks started lending to the asset, and not to the individual: it was bound to end in tears.

So, what you say is what a Good Bank should be saying, if I understand Jerome correctly. But it's profit Bad Banks are after, from the new credit created (less deposits yada yada) and of course just feel the width of the economic growth....

I see no need for secured credit in relation any assets once they have been developed. It's inefficient.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Dec 26th, 2008 at 05:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But many of the assets backing it were just as counterfeit as the money creation they were used to justify. Or at the very least, their nominal value was in very large part counterfeit.

However I twist and turn it, I really can't see why fractional reserve banking should be inherently problematic, so long as care is taken to put the bad banks (and the hedge funds and other wannabe banks) out of everybody else's misery before they counterfeit too much money.

  • Suppose Alice has a cement factory and Bob wants to build a ball bearing factory.

  • Bob then goes to Charlie - who happens to have established a government-backed bank - and borrows a hundred bottle caps.

  • Charlie mints a hundred new bottle caps for Bob.

  • Bob then pays the hundred bottle caps to Alice for cement to build the ball bearing factory.

  • The factory then starts producing ball bearings, which Alice buys to improve the efficiency of her factory.

  • As Alice buys the ball bearings, she gradually transfers the bottle caps back to Bob in payment for the ball bearings.

  • Bob uses (part of) the bottle cap flow from Alice to pay back the loan he took out from Charlie.

  • When Charlie gets back the bottle caps, he destroys them (or puts them in a vault for re-use - whatever, they're removed from circulation).

  • After Alice has completely upgraded her factory, Alice has paid Bob enough bottle caps to completely settle his account with Charlie.

  • Now Alice has a better factory, Bob has a new factory and all the bottle caps Charlie created have been destroyed again. Everyone is happy.

Essentially, Bob is borrowing cement from Alice on the promise that he will, at some later date, pay for the cement in some unspecified good. Which he then proceeds to do.

If Alice knew Bob very well and trusted that his scheme was sound, they wouldn't have needed Charlie at all. But since Alice and Bob don't necessarily know each other very well, Charlie steps in to provide a guarantee of Alice's deferred income. And even if Alice and Bob did know each other very well, Alice might need to buy food from other people who don't know Bob (but who do know Charlie) before Bob repaid her.

Effectively, Charlie is saying "because I guarantee very, very many projects (all for a fee) and because my judgement of which projects to guarantee is good, I can make good your losses if Bob grabs the bottle caps and skips town."

I'm not sure what you think the problem is with that picture?

Of course, there's also a different scenario:

  • Bob now has a ball bearing factory, and Dexter wants to build a perpetual motion machine.

  • Dexter goes to Charlie to get funding for his perpetual motion machine.

  • Charlie tells Dexter to take a long walk on a short pier.

  • Dexter then goes to Emily, Charlie's shady half-sister who also happens to run a bank.

  • Emily lends Dexter a hundred bottle caps.

  • Dexter gives Bob the hundred bottle caps to get ball bearings for his perpetual motion machine.

  • Dexter's machine (of course) fails to produce anything.

  • Since Dexter's machine doesn't produce anything, Bob's bottle caps are now worthless - he can't buy anything from Dexter with them. But since bottle caps are indistinguishable, the value of Bob's bottle caps is propped up by the real value represented by all the other bottle caps in existence - and by the same token, all the other bottle caps in existence are denuded of the value thus transferred to Bob's bottle caps.

  • Since Dexter doesn't have any income, he can't pay back Emily, so at some point people start wondering about Emily's solvency. At which point Emily quietly skips town with the very nearly golden chain that the Merchants' Guild gave her as a reward "for stimulating a strong business environment."

  • Dexter is now bankrupt and Bob is short a hundred bottle caps' worth of ball bearings, which were burned up in Dexter's wild-goose chase (shared, of course, by everyone else who has bottle caps, or income denominated in non-inflation indexed amounts of bottle caps). Everyone is sad. (Except Emily, who got a very nearly golden chain for her mischief.)

Effectively, Bob lent Dexter a hundred bottle caps' worth of ball bearings, which Dexter promised to repay in some unspecified good at some later date. Dexter then reneged on his promise. And because Dexter made his promise through Emily - and because Emily was sanctioned by the government to provide government-backed guarantees - the rest of the world supported Bob's ill-judged loan to Dexter.

I'm not sure that I understand your proposal quite well enough to know precisely where it proposes to change story #2... But I do think that it's possible for the government to prevent story #2 from occurring (or rather, to prevent it from occurring too frequently), by exercising oversight of those who provide its guarantees. In other words, in my example #2, the government should have nationalised Emily's business and removed her as soon as Dexter's perpetual motion machine showed up on her balance sheet.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 26th, 2008 at 06:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:

Effectively, Charlie is saying "because I guarantee very, very many projects (all for a fee) and because my judgement of which projects to guarantee is good, I can make good your losses if Bob grabs the bottle caps and skips town."

I'm not sure what you think the problem is with that picture?

Because that's not what happens. What happens is that Satan says to Charlie ¨You know, people believe your promises. That's got to be worth bottle caps in itself. How about we start selling bets that you, me, or anyone is or isn't going to be able to pay back their bottle caps? We can also guarantee guarantees, almost ad infinitum, and create more bottle caps than anyone has ever seen.¨

Bob and Alice find meanwhile that Charlie's interest doesn't end with the bottle caps. In return for bottle caps he starts demanding that they run their businesses in a way that he likes. If he doesn't like what they're doing - and especially they're not making more bottle caps for him - he can threaten to close down their businesses.

Ordinary folk, to whom all of this is a mystery, start to find that they're working longer and longer hours for fewer and fewer bottle caps. They blame aliens and the phase of the moon for this, but eventually the system has a schizophrenic attack and collapses.

The point being that there's a difference between investment, which is defined by confidence and guarantess of reputation, and extortion, which is defined by financial cannibalism.

Most so-called equity funding, especially of the private kind, is really a form of legalised extortion. Businesses aren't funded as a social good, or even primarily as a good way to produce ball bearings or cement.

Instead they're forced to 'perform' for their owners and financiers like trained pets.

It's bear pit economics - literally. It's every bit as barbaric as badger baiting and dog fighting, but instead of being morally repugnant it's been made the centre of all serious economic activity.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Dec 26th, 2008 at 09:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that is the most trenchant explanation i've read yet, tbg.

when i'd watch the traders all yelling and gesticulating as if demented, and reflect that that was the pulsing heart of the 'economy', i'd feel physically sick watching them. your post perfectly explains my repulsion...

"Two wrongs don't make a right, but three lefts do." Jim Hightower

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Dec 26th, 2008 at 09:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But extortion should be just flat-out illegal, even - or perhaps especially - when it's carried out by men in black suits and ties.

I still don't see what the problem is with the picture? That it's unenforceable? Surely not for a nationalised (retail) banking sector.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Dec 27th, 2008 at 06:32:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Extortion should be illegal, but of course it isn't - it's called 'making companies perform' or sometimes 'M&A' and it's considered a completely legal form of financial farming.

So I think you're confusing hypothesis with reality. Your model looks good, but no real financial sector will ever be that clean. Even with a nationalised banking sector you'll still get turf wars and other power struggles between the interested parties, to the detriment of social productivity and effectiveness.

What's really needed is a mechanism which assesses trustworthiness realistically and also provides backstop support for projects, but isn't socially, politically or financially acquisitive - or at least is only as socially, politically and financially acquisitive as it's possible for an organisation to be.

Interesting challenge, that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 27th, 2008 at 06:54:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It doesn't have to be squeaky clean. It just has to be clean enough that the advantage of easy access to liquidity isn't overshadowed by the cost of counterfeiting, extortion and the regulatory effort needed to suppress these.

Once the advantages no longer exceed the disadvantages, the system should be dismantled in good order.

I don't think it's impossible to construct a working financial system on roughly the basis we had in the fifties and sixties... as long as one makes sure that the participants are convinced that the entire sector will be dismantled the minute it stops being a benefit to the real economy.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Dec 27th, 2008 at 07:03:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The system in the 50s and 60s was propped up partly by government investment in cement and ball bearing technologies (or their high tech equivalents) and that's one reason why it worked relatively well. We're still getting those benefits today.

But I'm not convinced that the system back then is the best one to return to. Distributed financing, with strong regulation to prevent extortion and fraud but no central monopoly on finance seems like a more interesting idea.

There were still boom and bust cycles throughout the 50s and 60s. I'd be more interested in a system which was designed to be inherently stable and where growth is measured in the increase of innovative IP being created, with manufacturing taking second place. (After energy supply becomes sustainable.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 27th, 2008 at 08:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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