| "After Democracy," Emmanuel Todd: French Society in Crisis | Le Monde - Review - Bertrand Le Gendre (24.11.08 | 15h510) | | Europe urged to protect and survive | Financial Times - John Thornhill (December 1 2008 02:00) |
| Democracy is on the road to ruin. Religious values (Christianity, Communism ...) have collapsed. Free-marketism and its corollary, globalization, are slowly destroying society. And to make matters worse, the French have elected as their leader a president who is "incapable of exercising power"(1). A man who, once in power, immediately aligned himself with the United States, like "a rat rushing to scurry onto a sinking ship". | | The financial crisis is convulsing politics in unexpected(2) ways. The triumph of an inexperienced black liberal senator in the US presidential election(3) may yet be counted as the first surprise of many. What else could be in store? |
| That, in a few words, is the the thesis of this fulgent, fulsome, and flat-footed book, as Emmanuel Todd was caught flat-footed(2) by the financial crisis that would "re-presidentialize" Nicolas Sarkozy. Nor did he predict that the "Bushist America" he curses would elect Barack Obama(3). | | Emmanuel Todd, the French historian, made a name for himself by predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union. He has been peering into his crystal ball again. In his latest book, Après la démocratie (After Democracy), he conjures up the alarming possibility of a post-democratic Europe reverting to ethnic scapegoating and dictatorship(16). |
| At once independent-minded and upset (emporté)(4), Emmanuel Todd is not any more lenient towards the Socialists(5). He accuses the Socialist Party (PS) of having betrayed the values of the left by converting to capitalism. In Ségolène Royal's popularity he discerns signs of "rot [décomposition]" in the body politic. And he blames "cynical careerism" for the promotion of the Socialist Pascal Lamy to the head of the World Trade Organization as well as that of Dominique Strauss-Kahn as director of the International Monetary Fund. | | The author's starting point is incredulity that a politician as "vacuous, violent and vulgar" as Nicolas Sarkozy could ever have been elected president(1). As interior minister, Mr Sarkozy proved he was ill-suited to high office by inflaming social tensions during the riots in France's troubled suburbs, Mr Todd argues. Mr Sarkozy's first months in power have only confirmed this judgment. As incompetent in economics as in diplomacy, the hyperactive Mr Sarkozy is going nowhere fast, the author contends, rather like a cyclist pedalling away on an exercise bike. |
| This is a point to which he comes back often: the Socialist elites are of the same ilk as Nicolas Sarkozy. Historian, demographer and sociologist, he sees in their patent complicity(6) the explanation for the ideological void that France has sunk into. With "a rise in the power of antidemocratic forces(7)" as the consequence. | | Yet Mr Sarkozy's election is a symptom of the sickness of French democracy rather than its cause. Once, French politics was neatly defined by its ideological divisions(9): the Communists represented the secular, internationalist, working class; the Gaullists represented nationalist, conservative, Catholic values. But the collapse of religion and ideology(8) has destroyed that framework, leaving behind a politically atomised society wide open to manipulation by the likes of Mr Sarkozy or Silvio Berlusconi(7) in Italy. Tough economic times will only tempt such populist politicians to stoke public fears of immigration and to adopt ever more authoritarian ways. |
| The exploration of this ideological void is at the heart of his exposition. The crumbling away of the great religious faiths(8), explains Emmanuel Todd, aggravates the decline of politics. But this decline is also due to a rise in the level of knowledge -- a disturbing statement for those who believe that education automatically improves democracy. That was true yesterday. But times change. The increasing number of graduates with higher levels of education, notes Emmanuel Todd, has reshuffled the deck by creating a category of individuals impervious "to the strong affiliations that used to structure the nation, the public, the social domain"(9). | | However, the author is equally scathing about France's opposition Socialists(5), a party of cosseted bureaucrats who have betrayed the workers they once represented. French civil servants do not have to worry about the corrosive effects of globalisation(11) because their own jobs cannot be sent offshore. |
| Add to this gloomy picture the temptation to fill the religious and ideological void(8) he denounces with calls to reclaim identity: the castigation of Islam(10), the creation of a ministry of national identity, the "ethnicization" of a national myth... One begins to understand why this book is titled After Democracy. | | Mr Todd paints a picture of a collusive political-media elite(6) that benefits from globalisation while being disconnected from the people who suffer from it. As arrogant as the aristocracy on the eve of the 1789 revolution, this elite blithely ignores the views of voters whenever it suits them. French voters rejected the European Union's constitutional treaty, but a modified version was later adopted by parliament. Britain's voters protested massively against the war in Iraq, but the government sent in the troops regardless. |
| Which democracy is supposedly at risk of disappearing. Emmanuel Todd does not rule out a "coup d'Etat(16)", the temptation to which he perceives in Henri Guaino, Nicolas Sarkozy's special counsel. Similarly, he suspects the Socialists of wanting to "withdraw the right to vote from the people, or to at least to seriously limit its practice(16)". | | Ordinary workers blame cheap-wage China for killing jobs and compressing wages(13). Instead, France's leaders scapegoat Muslim immigrants and target militant Islam(10), justifying an unpopular intervention in Afghanistan. Employees want Europe to protect their jobs but, in spite of his increasingly protectionist rhetoric, Mr Sarkozy - and the opposition Socialist party - still adhere to the free-trade dictates of the EU and the World Trade Organisation. |
| At times one wonders if he is joking, but he is not the type. Emmanuel Todd is convinced that the free market and globalization, considered by France's elite to be a foregone conclusion, have disintegrated(11) French democracy. | | In Mr Todd's reductionist view, globalisation is simply the exploitation of cheap workers in China(13) and India by US, European and Japanese companies. He is therefore an unabashed champion of European protectionism. Erecting trade barriers(12) would increase European wages(14) which, in turn, would increase demand and boost trade, he argues. The "social asphyxia" that is sucking the breath out of democracy would disappear. |
| The solution flows from the source: abandon globalization and institute a salvational protectionism at the borders of Europe(12). Thanks to such a reasoned protectionism, French wages, pulled down to the bottom by Chinese workers(13), will rise again(14). National cohesion will come out of it restrengthened. And democracy -- at last! -- will find its colors again. | | The British, whose very identity is wrapped up in free trade, will never buy protectionism, Mr Todd suggests, but Germany and the rest of the EU could be persuaded. |
| Sprinkled with cutting judgements, this exposition often vacillates between essay and satirical tract, in the process losing its force(15). Above all, Emmanuel Todd is too presumptuous. If the solution that he argues for were the panacea, we would follow it without hesitation. Alas... | | At times, Mr Todd's anger(4) outstrips his analysis(15). Too many questions are left hanging. Does globalisation not benefit western consumers? Why would Germany, one of the great exporting nations, turn its back on free trade? Has Mr Sarkozy not performed well in the crisis? But there is no doubt that the intellectual assault on free trade is intensifying. Mr Todd's book is an impassioned(4) salvo in that war of ideas. |
