The euro at 10 - the return of the real economy

by Jerome a Paris
Tue Jan 6th, 2009 at 03:38:20 PM EST

I found it oddly appropriate that on the day the euro ended its 10th year (and in the middle of an ongoing discussion with ChrisCook about the nature of money), we could read a distinctively plaintive editorial in the FT trying to argue that finance is not that evil and that it is necessary to the "real economy."

There is a more extreme view, though, which points to the growth in finance as a share of output in rich countries and says the overmighty financial sector must become smaller, both to tame its capacity for disaster and to free resources and talent for more “productive” and “real” activities. This view is wrong.

bumped to give readers coming from the FT a different take on the financial crisis: what I call the Anglo Disease


It is mistaken in seeing finance as unproductive: it may not be tangible but its economic effects are. Financiers decide which investment projects best balance risk and reward and channel money to them: they offer ways to share intolerable risks, such as the house burning down; they allow the young to buy houses by borrowing from the old; and they make possible the exchange of goods without exchanging physical currency. If finance did not exist we would have to invent it – or find some communistic central planners to do the job instead.

It is telling that the arguments against "finance is too big" are purely of the "finance is necessary" kind. It, of course, ignores that most people that make the argument that finance needs to be cut down to size (including yours truly, a banker) do not call for it to be eliminated, just tamed and made boring. It is also enlightening to see that the bogeyman of communist central planning is brought up right away, suggesting that there are no other arguments remaining.

Japan and Germany are both manufacturing powerhouses, yet they seem just as susceptible to this downturn, partly because they relied on finance-driven consumption abroad to provide demand for their exports.

That the FT uses the point above as an argument for finance (even those that did not dabble are touched) rather than against (consumption was based on unsustainable financial shenanigans rather than real revenues) is beyond me but it takes us back to the heart of the debate about money. Finance has moved away from dealing with money (the oil that helps the wheels of the economy spin efficiently) to dealing with extravagant volumes of debt (the oil that improves the oil), becoming completely autonomous in the process as increasing parts of that debt were not even remotely connected to any underlying economic activity. But debt can be turned into money (liquidity permitting...) and can easily pollute the economy, as we see all too clearly today.

Which brings us to the euro. It's been designed, like the DM before it, because of the earlier experiences in Germany, as a currency that could not easily be spoiled by the ravages of too much debt. Stability, and protection of value have been overriding priorities, which has translated into discipline for the public sector via the Maastricht criteria and for the private sector via a hawkish central bank not keen to hand out too much debt.

In a world of freely tradable currencies, and mobile capital, debt can come from many sources, and dollar follies can spread around the world, as can the narratives that both created and supported the bubble economy (also known as the Anglo Disease). That eurozone companies also joined in the "fun", and that eurozone economies are affected by the collapse of the debt pyramid is not an indictment of being prudent with money, as we are being told repeatedly, it's just a testament to the pervasiveness of the Anglo disease. The superficial attraction of debt-fuelled growth, especially to elites that should have known better and got sucked in (and personally benefited massively, surely not a coincidence) is easy to understand, especially when it benefits from nonstop propaganda through compliant or complicit media, pundits and politicians. When becoming rich and return on capital are the only gods of the day, you join in the fun or at least adapt to prevailing rules.

In that context, it is almost a wonder that the euro has performed as well as it has, and a testament to the political vision of its founders, which created stable institutions specifically able to withstand the pressure of the common wisdom of bubble times. The euro is a political endeavor (something that the neolib Anglos deny with all their force, but acknowledge at the same time by fighting it as hard as they can) and it is based on old-fashioned concepts about the soundness of money (ie keeping finance, defined as the manipulation of debt, on a leash - again, something denied by the neolib Anglos because they can't tolerate finance being defined that way, and fought because they do define it that way).

But reality cannot be denied. The fundamental soundness of the euro may be questioned by the propagandist of the Cult of the Bubble, which keep on inventing new reasons why it will fail (which are all, naturally, based on the innate superiority of the debt-based "flexible" and "free" economies of the Anglo variety) but it is obvious for all to see. Dollars are bought because they are needed to pay for oil, or to protect the export industries of countries that feed on the debt-fuelled consumption bubble, or to redeem asset liquidation by US-based investors. Euros are bought to store value, or to buy goods that have value.

The dollar is increasingly money backed by financiers-manipulated debt. The euro is fundamentally money backed by real economic activity. The distinction will matter. And the finance industry will follow.

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my ongoing arguments about the need to avoid debt-fuelled government spending and focus on tax-driven investment or targetted spending.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2008 at 08:47:00 AM EST
I would rather ask this question here, rather than on DailyKos, where it is likely to be lost in the crowd.

Why does the U.S. government have to sell debt to finance a projected infrastructure program? Rather, do like Lincoln did to pay for the American Civil War: authorize the Treasury to issue legal tender that is used to pay contractors, vendors, and labor working on the infrastructure program: pay them in U.S. notes issued directly from the Treasury, usable as legal tender throughout the economy.

Besides not having to borrow a single dime to pay for the infrastructure program, this addition to the money supply is strictly related to the increase in the productive potentials of the economy since it is being used to pay the bills for building new infrastructure.

Lincoln's legal tender, which became known as "Greenbacks" amounted to 449 million dollars issued during the war. These notes continued to be issued until 1971, circulating in tandem with Federal Reserve Notes, and can be so circulated again.

Interestingly, the London Times editorialized strenuously against the Lincoln greenbacks:  

"if that mischievous financial policy, which had its origin in the North American Republic, should become indurated down to a fixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off debts and be without a debt. It will have all the money necessary to carry on its commerce. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in th history of the civilized governments of the world. The brains and the wealth of all countries will go to North America. That government must be destroyed, or it will destroy every monarchy on the globe."
by NBBooks on Wed Dec 31st, 2008 at 07:56:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, there was a good answer to your question in the dKos thread. It would indeed be a highly effective way of making sure than money creation fully and directly goes to useful ends - but as would any direct government spending.

It's still money creation, and government debt in another form. At least it's better directed than sending it into the financial system for deleveraging.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 05:16:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't that create lots of inflation, and hence work as a flat (ie pseudo-regressive) tax, especially painful for people who subsist mainly on salaries rathen than on capital?

Government debt on the other hand can be financed by progressive taxation.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 07:31:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Debt is either repaid by taxes or eliminated via inflation (a pure 'flat tax').
Given that we have a lot already, we need to start thinking about tax policy, not spending policy.

We've spent money we did not have. We won't solve that by spending more.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:12:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We can think about tax policy in say 2 years, when the acute part of the crisis has passed. We shouldn't let our fundamental understanding of the problem hamper the immediate solving of said problem.

In my humble opinion.

When it comes to tax policy, during the Eisenhower years the highest tax bracket was around 90-95 %. Sounds good to me, even if only a handful (yes, really!) of people actually were in that bracket.

Like I've said before, being in that highest bracket should result in having the government give you a medal (knight commander of the golden purse?), and for the annual no.1 tax contributor of society, we'll throw in a cast bronze statue to be erected on some square. Seriously.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...we'll throw in a cast bronze statue...
We could only afford the statue were we to close enough loopholes to actually generate some portion of the yield from the tax.  If that were the case, we could afford to give them a life size likeness cast in their choice of gold or platinum, (using the lost wax process.)  That kind of tax on their wealth could justify a solid, life size statue.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 02:44:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Mais c'est un scandâââle!!
by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:37:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and benefits, pensions and the like, are not indexed.

In most of Europe, they are indexed, and therefore the tax falls most on those who hold assets in the currencies being deflated.

Remember, we're not talking about hyperinflation (in the Eurozone, anyway).

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:39:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if you are in a position, today, to index wages, how could you not be in a position to increase taxes as well?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:40:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wage indexing is already in place all over the Eurozone. That political argument has been won. The Smic goes up every May.

Tax increases, especially given the current political environment in many parts of the EU, is not an argument that can be won in the next six months to a year; it requires elections. Yet, if no action is taken now, if you think yesterday's employment news from Insee was depressing, wait till you see what's coming.

Meanwhile, as Starvid points out, one way or another, the piper needs to be paid. Explicit taxes are better than inflation not because inflation is always regressive while other taxes are not necessarily so. Explicit taxes are better because inflation has been shown, empirically, to correlate to slower economic growth, as two things happen: people waste time avoiding the effects of inflation, and FDI suffers as foreigners increasingly require higher returns due to perception of this tax by assets holders in the currency being regularly inflated.

So, explicit taxes being better, here again, I find Starvid's proposal on income to be a good one - 90+% marginal rates like in the US immediately after the war or in much of Scandinavia in the post-war period, as well as Chris Cook's suggestion on wealth tax for the reason he gives. To these, I'd also add an international financial transaction (or so-called Tobin tax) to fund anti-poverty measures in the developing world.

If there's something in the PS programme which speaks specifically to these proposals, as do the other left parties, please link to them, because I haven't seen them.

But meanwhile, now is not the time to talk about balancing the budgets, the time is to act, and for left parties in opposition, propose what they would specifically do if in power, as Die Linke and the French left have been doing for some time now.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:58:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The SMIC may be indexed currently, but other wages certainly aren't, nor are retirement benefits or minimum income systems such as the RMI, in France...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:30:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
a clear class-based preference for fighting unemployment or inflation. Those of the working classes who are polled on the subject tend significantly to prefer fighting unemployment over fighting inflation. I think we can easily draw conclusions on what this means for the economic crisis at hand and what to do if we really are serious about representing workers: avoid at all costs another unemployment spiral, this one far worse than the last one the Germans provoked in the early '90's.

Here is a recent study on the subject and there are many others.

In view of this it is not hard to see whose interests are being represented by the ECB, whose only explicit charge is to keep inflation at a very low level which pretty much assures economic stagnation and wage-depressing levels of un- and under-employment. And they are certainly not doing it on behalf of workers, whatever Jerome's lofty rhetoric to the contrary might suggest. A lofty rhetoric which, when examined against the backdrop of what workers themselves actually want, is at the same time an expression of his own class interests as it is (to be charitable) patronizing of the interests of those his view purports to protect.

Adding in passing that working people tend to be much closer to, if not at, the SMIC, or have some other regularly indexed wage mechanism (mostly via regular negotiations in the framework of the various conventions collectives.) Small merchants and farmers are protected as weill, to the extent they pass on the impact to consumers via selling their wares at the higher prices. And while the RMI may not have a statutory indexing mechanism, as a matter of political course, it goes up every year, and it would, as a practical matter be extremely difficult (imagine the protests) if it were not raised in a given year. Same with the retraite de base.

On the other hand, cadres dirigeants, or those in the professions liberales, tend to be exposed, as are those who hold significant assets denominated in the currency being inflated.  

Those are the people whose interests are being looked after by the ECB and well-meaning but (imho) mistaken partisans of tight money, tight fiscal policy and pay-as-you-go at any cost like Jerome here. Not workers, not by any means.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:08:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if you have to resort to ad hominems? I'm a banker so I can't speak for workers?

It's really disappointing to see you write this.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:23:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I state my case quite clearly. The fact is, there is a distinct class preference for fighting inflation versus fighting unemployment. Workers tend to favor the latter by wide margins. You are fixated on the former, and aside from rhetoric, give no real economic interest rationale for why, especially as regards workers and what is now coming their way. It is fair game to wonder aloud why this is. It pains me to see nominally progressive people push Hooverism, and yet, that is what I see.

You purport to care about the workers and the least of our brothers and yet would rather dogmatically have a balanced budget than do something to help them. Forgive me if I find this curious, not to mention anti-worker. You provide criticism without constructive, specific and pragmatic proposals, call me an objective ally of Sarkozy one day and the neo-liberals another, and yet I'm the one out of line pointing out that your interests and your inflation preferences align well as the polling data show?

Unlike calling me an objective ally of Sarko, that's not ad hom, that's calling a duck a duck.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:34:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not calling for the end of deficits, I'm calling for spending increases funded by tax increases to the largest extent possible.

I've noted that debt-fuelled binges in recent economic experience have not helped but made things worse. Why would the 70s or the 90s be less relevant than the 30s?  I've argued that the core problem is a lack of income, not a lack of consumption, so helping consumption is not likely to help. I've said where that income can come from (wage increases and tax increases).

I have provided arguments, proposals and have reacted to your arguments, but if you refuse to acknowledge this, I fail to see the point of continuing this conversation. I have called you an "objecitve ally" of people you don't like in response to you doing the same, to point out how stupid these arguments are.

And "class" arguments coming from you are laughable, and I think we should avoid the issue altogether, because it's plainly ridiculous.

As to my preferences, well I would certainly benefit from more bailouts of the financial sector, I would certainly benefit from lower taxes, I would certainly deal with inflation a lot easier than people with no ability to negotiate their wages or invest money in inflation-protected assets, I would certainly benefit from lower gas taxes, etc... Your claims of personal interest there are laughable.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's your view?

That if there are no tax increases, you will do nothing.

Is this an accurate synopsis of your policy preferences? Because, over the past month or so, that's been the general theme.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:55:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And they are certainly not doing it on behalf of workers, whatever Jerome's lofty rhetoric to the contrary might suggest. A lofty rhetoric which, when examined against the backdrop of what workers themselves actually want, is at the same time an expression of his own class interests as it is (to be charitable) patronizing of the interests of those his view purports to protect.

redstar, as you read back through this discussion, you will likely find that there are quite esoteric disagreements on economic policy here.  the comments regarding J do a disservice to the arguments you are trying to build.  (to be charitable.)  Fer chrissake, it's taken me a year to begin to digest some of Chris Cook's points.  Could we tone down the rhetoric a bit... we're all trying to figure out how to react to the worst situation many of us will ever see.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:39:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Respectfully, this isn't esoteric. Jerome would prefer we do something to help workers, but won't do it unless we pay for it via raising taxes on the rich first.

There are no governments (possible exception Spain on the periphery) who will do this until the next elections, Jerome knows this, therefore a pragmatic outcome of Jerome's principled opposition to "Anglo-Disease" is that we do nothing.

The likely result of this will be a severe, prolonged recession, if not the "d" word, in the Eurozone, with unemployment approaching 20% in many countries (and beyond in some, again thinking of Spain).

In my view and most moderately progressive economists (Krugman is often cited, as he was on this thread) this outcome, which as a logical result of Jerome's expressed policy preferences, this outcome, which will hurt workers now every bit as much as it did inthe 1930's, is potentially avoidable.

So actually, it's not esoteric, its a matter of one in five of your neighbors having a job at the end of 2010.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:54:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is that using debt to fund a stimulus will solve nothing and we'll still have a deep recession and high unemployment.

Since it looks that your preferences will be implemented, we'll be able to tell if I'm right or not, at least.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:57:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My preferences are not being implemented. I've been clear on this, dozens of times.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!
by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So you're saying that my proposals (tax increases) are unrealistic because they stand no chance of being implemented, and now you're telling me that your proposals are not implemented either....

What are we fighting about, exactly? I've criticized the stimulus plans for various reasons (too much use of debt, too many tax cuts, too much focus on the financial sector, too much precipitation and too little oversight/thinking over) and especially one (the debt bit), and you seem to disagree with my criticism of the stimuli, but you are now telling me that your ideas are in fact NOT implemented.

so let's be precise: given that, is it fair to say that your position is that on balance the Sarkozy/Merkel plans are better than doing nothing?

My position on that is that I'm not convinced this is the case, because of the debt angle, and because of too much focus on consumption and the financial sector.

My position on what a stimulus plan should look like is not that different from yours, I think: tax increases on the rich and on oil, emergency spending on the poorest, investment in smart energy and transport infrastructure, more spending on social needs, education and healthcare (and adding, less police harassment of immigrants and subversives and less fearmongering).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:17:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So actually, it's not esoteric, its a matter of one in five of your neighbors having a job at the end of 2010.

That's rhetoric.  What is esoteric is the complexity of the global economic condition.  The fixes to prevent neighbors out of work demand strategic "out of the box" thinking.  That means i will even have to use critical thinking of Krugman strategies, since he spends most of his time circulating in the world of the privileged Princeton elite.

You might as well attack me for spending more on travel, hotels and restaurants than most workers make in a year.  There are no simple solutions to this crisis, other than views which haven't yet ever been tried.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 you are not correct. Workers do suffer from inflation (defined as consumer price inflation, not as wage inflation, as the ECB has been wont to). They may not worry about inflation so much at times when wages are indexed, but the big fight of the neolibs over the past 25 years has precisely been to break that indexation.

Absent such indexation, it is more protective for workers to focus on inflation. Indexation comes when you have strong unions, which is not quite what we have now.

It's easy to blame the Bundesbank for the 90s, but why don't you blame Kohl's decision to take in the Ost-mark at parity, the underlying cause of the Bundesbank's toughness, and the reason the whole East German industry became totally unable to be price competitive overnight - and indeed disappeared extremely quickly. That was a political choice to buy off unification by paying Eastern consumers a one off bonus - while destroying their jobs.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:30:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
on how public investment proposals would be inflationary, and please cite specific studies to buttress your view that moderate inflation is bad for workers.

But this doesn't help explain why workers show a distinct preference for employment protection over protection of inflation. How to explain that?

Your neo-lib bogeymen haven't broken the indexation either, not even close and they can't right now either. But give Europe 20% unemployment again, and we'll see. That's what your policies will lead to.

Understood on the ost-mark conversion, that was a disaster. Which French President went along with that whole programme and used essentially political graft to get re-elected via illegal campaign financing?

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:40:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not seeing inflation indexed wages where I live. In fact, I see eroding real wages for many lines of work. Just last Fall, real wages for unskilled workers eroded by almost half a percent. And I see pensions and other transfers indexed below inflation (below the official inflation, and if you believe the official inflation figures then I have some CDOs I wanna sell you...).

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 05:49:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wage indexation has been dropped by European countries long ago, except, in some of them, for the minimum wage. And even in that case, in most countries, the adjustment is not automatic. See this study from the European Industrial Relations Observatory:

Minimum wages in Europe Scroll down to find the chapter about adjustment.

"Ce qui vient au monde pour ne rien troubler ne mérite ni égards ni patience." René Char

by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 6th, 2009 at 07:44:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Funny that...

We have neither a minimum wage nor wage indexing. Instead we have collective bargaining by fair and responsible employers and fair and responsible labour unions.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Jan 6th, 2009 at 11:45:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair and responsible and strong labour unions.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Certainly. People often joke and say that the (all powerful * ominous music *) soc dem party is actually just the political wing of the biggest labour union... ;)

And well, union membership is something like 75-85 %. I mean, I'm about as hard right as you can be in Sweden, and even I'm a labour union member!

(not a member of the big soc dem labour union though)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 07:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you index wages, how are you going to deal with foreign competition when your wage situation is too high? Have a fixed currency you can devalue? No thanks. Just lose the industry? (works well when we're talking about structural changes leading to the loss of say textile or other simple manufacturing, but who's ready to lose a high-tech industry to China?)

And don't say limit free trade, because then I'll scream! ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:02:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair trade, not free trade, that is the way to go.

Unfettered free trade has been a disaster for workers in both the developed and the developing world.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I beg to differ. Surely workers in both the developed and the developing world are much better off today than 30 years ago, and this is very much due to free and unfettered trade.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:20:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
who lost their land due to trade agreements and have been forced to migrate north for jobs with no legal standing or protections.

You can see the same template in effect in Africa too.

If workers are better off today, how to explain the gini coefficient, and the mass migrations of peoples? Happy people tend to stay put; people in distress migrate. Migration costs a lot of money, I know this first hand.

Ask a migrant if he'd rather be back home or in a Des Moines, IA meat packing plant doing grueling work for low pay and no protections as an illegal immigrant, I think you can guess the answer. But, ask him who's got the family plot of land now, and he'll say Dole or Del Monte or some other agro-alimentary concern, which flooded the market with low priced goods from subsidized and mechanized farms, drove him out of business and then bought his land cheap.

Collectivization in the interest of Capital rather than the people, that's what "free trade" has been primarily about.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:27:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The gini coefficient describes unequality, not standard of living. It only makes sense in places where there has been lots of growth but no or just small gains for the broad middle class or its equivalent (like in the US).

The big story is China and India and the giant progress which has been made there (check it in Gapminder), and no amount of Mexican anecdotes is going to change that.

By the way, massive migration is in itself nothing bad. The hundreds of millions who have left the Chinese countryside hasn't done it because they've gotten worse off - you can't get worse off than a poor Chinese farmer without dying - but because they've gotten an opportunity to live a better life in the cities. It's the same thing which happened in Europe during the 20th century.

All your complaints about the results of free and unfettered trade is not due to the trade itself, but a sympotom of local problems. They are bugs, not features.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 03:56:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When are you going to stop peddling rubbish about China?

  1. They still are not engaging in Free Trade as you know it.

  2. The vast majority of increase in living standards came before they even instituted the current "free trade" reforms.

  3. That pattern of growth out of poverty mirrors pretty well the experiences of both Japan and South Korea and the USA, in fact - there's a whole set of vital steps that occur under protectionism.

I know you don't like it, but the empirical evidence is that "free trade" as you push it doesn't provide the outcomes you think it does.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 04:18:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. The Chinese are certainly engaging in free trade, they way I mean it. Sure, there are still some tariffs on strategic metals and goods with a high energy content, but that's about it.

  2. Certainly not. It came with Deng, both as a result of him instituting smart reforms and partly by him just not being Mao "let's kill millions through incompetence and malice" Zedong. Like I said before, just check Gapminder. It's a great tool.

  3. I never said the State doesn't have a great role in development. Being a free trader is not the same as being a neoliberal. I've read a great book on development economics which very clearly shows that wothout a strong state you're not going to get anywhere, though I'm not sure if it has been translated.


Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 04:39:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Workers in the developed world aren't better off than they were 30 years ago, and that's not counting the rise in unemployment....

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:31:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just not in the US.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 03:52:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nor in much of Western Europe...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 04:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 04:33:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They are no better off on average now than 30 years ago, in France. And my guess is that it is the case in more places than the uk or France - it seems Japan hasn't done so well lately.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 06:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's only in the past 5 years that a slice of the very rich have taken off and left everybody else behind. Before that, the trend was still toward (slightly) shrinking inequality overall, and most deciles doing equally well.

I hve this in my "decline" article:



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 04:38:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Piketty, the reversal of the trend from inequality decreasing to growing again started in the early eighties, in France... Although indeed, most of the increase happened in the last ten years (note that this graph's period starts ten years ago...)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 04:55:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It starts 10 years ago AND shows increasing inequality.

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 06:15:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're partly talking about different things here, on one hand rising inequality and on the other stagnant absolute incomes.

On one hand you have the US were GDP has grown by X % over time Y, while median incomes have been stagnant. That's very bad and one can indeed question why the hell we should even care about economic growth at all in that situation.

On the other hand we have places like Western Europe where the elite might have increased their incomes by 100 % over time Y while median incomes have risen only 50 %.

While the first situation is horrible, the second is certainly not.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 06:19:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In France and much of Western Europe, middle class income has stagnated for the past decade. With the rise of house prices and rents, it has even quite probably strongly decreased for those without wealth.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 07:02:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And anyway, for many goods and service which are absolutely limited (housing in the most wanted places, education in the top schools, power when money can buy it), rising inequality is bad in itself. If the more wealthy get to control a larger share of private companies' stocks, that directly means a reduction in democracy.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 07:07:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
inflation math for me on this? I don't see it. I know it's an idee recue that government spending causes inflation, one often voiced by the Financial Times (of all places!) but that doesn't make it true.

Assume public investments undertaken pay back at roughly a 4% discount rate.

And, for the sake of the argument, you can ignore the currently moderately high risk of deflation if you do nothing.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
increasing the money supply faster than underlying economic activify creates inflation. All forms of debt increase the money supply.

If debt is used to fund investment, then usually the accompanying increase in economic activity makes it possible for no inflation to appear. If debt is used to fund consumption, then you will have inflation (of the asset price kind if wages and prices are constrained by other factors like brnging in China's workers in the equation).

So it is less unreasonable to argue for a debt-fuelled investment package by government, as opposed to a pure stimulus (giving money to households for them to consume). But that's not really what we're talking about here, is it? It's certainly not what Brown and Sarkozy are pushing, and which redstar is defending so ardently.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:34:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please show where I defend Sarkozy's stimulus plan. This is simply bad faith on your part, I've been very clear and consistent on my preferences: investments in educational and transportation infrastucture, green energy, public housing. The current nobel prize winner in economics, curiously, holds the same view.

Enough of this. This is bullshit. It's your blog. I'll go build me own.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:48:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the debate was whether Steinbruck was right to say that there was no need to rush towards a plan like Brown and Sarkozy were doing, and that it was in particular dangerous to have plans purely based on debt.

I supported Steinbruck's specific point that debt was dangerous today and you said that my Germanic (now Hooverian) obsession with balanced budgets was misguided in view of the tsunami coming towards workers in Europe.

We've been talking past one another ever since.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:55:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You dishonor your own arguments by giving vent to such frustration.  Your perspective is way too valuable to fall into this ego trap.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not an ego trap.

On more than one occasion it's been made clear to me that my perspective is far out of the mainstream of accepted views here, this is another ongoing one.

I don't mean to be supercilious or anything about this, really I don't. It's just pretty clear this is not a particularly fruitful debate. On this and many other subjects we are talking past another. I'd rather go and be productive elsewhere.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you get how productive you are here?  A real solution will come from the synthesis of careful deconstruction of arguments all over the board.  So what if it sometimes gets like a sandbox argument of 6 year olds.  That's how the process works these days.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:14:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Krugman doesn't agree.

He thinks aiming for balanced budgets (via tax increases) and being careful like the Germans is a dangerous mistake. He points to the examples of the US in 1937 and Japan in 1996-1997.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 07:42:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there is nothing in what Krugman writes that I read as being against tax increases for the ultra-righ.
That would not change their spending (at any rate not reduce it -they may be tempted to spend more in things that have a tax savind attached) and therefore not reduce demand.

I read Krugman as saying that it's the wrong time to be careful and reduce the demand of the 80% of the population that consumes everything they earn and more.

But we know that in the case of USA, it's on the wealthy that the tax increase should go -they pay a lower rate than the median earners...

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:11:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Taxes should be levied on the wealth of the rich, specifically by taxing the privilege inherent in exclusive property rights over Commons.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:22:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with Krugman is that he operates within an Overton Window where tax hikes are distilled political death. And half the time he doesn't even strike me as considering this particularly problematic.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 06:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Krugman clearly wants higher taxes for high incomes. Just read his great book The Conscience of a Liberal.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 06:15:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, Jérôme's argument is for general policy, not necessarily for short term answers to a crisis. There is little doubt that with less debt-fuelled spending (Government and private) there would not have been such a crisis in the first place.

"Few can believe that suffering, especially by others, is in vain. - Galbraith"
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:13:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the crisis, it is always this general policy that is formulated.

At a certain point, when repeated, the general policy becomes the answer to the crisis.

Bonddad on kos, who I don't usually care for, has a good piece on what happens when you play it by the so-called "rules" and adhere to the general policy.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:36:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/31/123134/59/488/678878

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2008 at 12:40:57 PM EST
conservatism dressed up as progressive economic policy.

Granted you seem to agree on many occasions that public investment is needed on a number of fronts (housing, green energy, educational and transportation infrastructure). And I think you would also agree that these investments would be stimulative to the economy and thereby mitigate the severe recession (and perhaps the "d" word) which is gathering in Europe today and the absolutely certain stress it will put on the weakest among us, in particular workers who have had their protections bargained away, often by parties (like the SPD) who ostensibly represent them.

But you still insist on "pay-as-you-go" budget constraints, preferring a balanced budget environment to investment if both cannot be achieved at the same time, and you've never indicated what fiscal measures (and, of course, supporting non-fiscal measures to enforce those fiscal measures) you would specifically make in order to both have it your way, in the present environment, on the budget and also engage in stimulative, badly needed public investments in order to maintain employment and/or purchasing power of workers.

To me, this is simply Hayek with some high-sounding progressive principles to mask the deep, worker-damning conservatism which animates the underlying economic weltenshauung expressed here, and obviously, as expressed elsewhere, I think this is both deeply flawed and deeply anti-worker.

   

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:16:52 AM EST
between the "financial" economy and the so-called "real" economy, as you and Sarkozy do, muddies the picture. They are part and parcel of the same economic system; market capitalism and regularly occurring financial crises are synonymous, and in fact the crisis unfolding today (and it is far from done) is a feature, not a bug in the economic system whence it springs.

The rot may have happened in more extremely unregulated financial markets like New York and London, but Paris and Frankfurt are not immune, not by any stretch of the imagination, because even the best front-end and back-end risk management and control systems can contain the damage that the system inevitably provokes via speculative bubbles which have been with us as long as their has been a bourgeoisie and the expression, via markets, of their economic interests.

We give unmerited cover to neo-liberalism in particular, and liberalism in general, by insisting there is a difference between a "financial" economy and the "real" economy. And even in a properly constituted socialist economy, command or otherwise, one sees cadres and decision makers who determine credit and capital allocation, who could not really be called anything else but financial analysts when observed in the present systems doing to much damage to workers today.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't recall that many bubbles between the depression and the deregulation, and that period must no matter what be described as a time of great progress for ordinary people.

Having more socialism, regulation or whatever might well have the opposite effect. In for example Sweden, the stagnation did not begin with deregulation but with overregulation, which broke the back of the almost constant century-long rocket development of my country, between 1870-1970, perfectly exemplified by how both left and right politicians jointly destroyed the most high-tech industry we had.

 It took a quarter of a century to deal with the fallout and get back on track.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:43:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There will always be an elite. You can have one that takes responsibility for the whole community, or one that takes care of itself only. Using money as a yardstick seems to favor the second kind of elites only.

I much prefer the capital allocation of the French technocats after WWII than the current one. They took pride in building systems that worked, not just in accumulating money.

Finance distorts the incentives by allowing selfish personal ones to be fulfilled via macroeconomic tools.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:44:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference is what to do now, and what to do when the left is in power (including punishing those responsible).

Happy New Year to you too, by the way!

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:20:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
redstar:
We give unmerited cover to neo-liberalism in particular, and liberalism in general, by insisting there is a difference between a "financial" economy and the "real" economy.

There is a difference.  

The financial economy is an intermediary layer between producers and consumers.

The big change is the emergence of direct "Peer to peer" connections. This is about to change the game IMHO and will disintermediate what is now an unnecessary layer.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:08:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even there, there is need for allocation decisions to take place, at the firm level, albeit in a much more distributed, less centralised, way.

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!
by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:14:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed.

The requirement is still there for providers of financial services. But as value adding partners, not as value extracting middlemen.

It's a market approach: but it's a market operating on a "Not for Loss" basis, rather than "For Profit". There is no "Profit" and no "Loss" within a partnership framework.

Modern conservatives engage in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy: the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.Galbraith

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 10:36:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm specifically calling for tax increases to match increased spending. Increase marginal rates, increase taxes on capital income, increase the gas tax, for starters, and use the money to increase the minimum wage, the  minimum sociaux or spending on basic social needs.

As starvid noted above, not increasign taxes now is akin to letting inflation deal with the revenue side of your stimulus, is a flat tax.

By pushing the notion that taxes cannot be increased, you sound like an objective ally of the neolibs. There - bonne année!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:39:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
a flat tax or a regressive one, so on this we simply have a fundamentally ideological difference. And, in any event, stimulus is not inflationary is the stimulative investments provide for increased prosperity in the future, which if done right would at least largely be the case. Any decent financial analyst can do the math - present value of cash flows at a proper risk premium of a state investment project, equal to today's outlays offset by tomorrow's benefits. If your NPV is, generally speaking, close to zero on the things you invest in, there's no inflation. So quite frankly, imho the inflation discussion is more than a bit of a red herring, and on a couple of different levels, given the subject and the gravity thereof.

Taxes of course can be increased. But unless you know something I don't, the UMP, the CDU/SPD, the Berlusconi and Balkenende governments are not going to do it until they've been tossed out of office, which in France is a long ways off. So, if you are insisting on tax increases to pay, today, for investments which are needed quite urgently, today, then you are saying that no investment should be undertaken under present circumstances. Here, it is you who is not being pragmatic, but rather, dogmatic. Where you accuse me of supposedly being (again) the objective ally of Sarkozy all the while borrowing his rhetoric on the real economy versus financial speculation, I would say rather that you appear to be hell-bent on worsening the crisis by doing nothing, and thereby condemning workers to even lower living standards, precarious housing, declining working conditions and greater overall exclusion and precarity, especially of the young and of minority workers.  

And in any case, where is your PS now on the subject, besides vague belly-aching about the bouclier fiscale which, even if repealed, wouldn't pay for anywhere near what what we are talking about.    

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:13:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | UK | Most Britons 'still oppose euro'

A BBC poll has found that 71% of people would vote against Britain joining the euro if it was put to a referendum.

The survey of 1,000 adults revealed that just 23% would vote "yes" to joining the European single currency, while 6% said they were unsure.

Teh stuped - it burns.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 08:53:14 AM EST
I'd prefer not to pay for your mess, (no offence TBG!) thank you...

Mais c'est un scandâââle!!
by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:18:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect Europe will be paying for the mess anyway, one way or another.

Euro entry for the UK might well be the cheapest option in the long run.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:23:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune - Comments - The euro at 10 - the return of the real economy
The dollar is increasingly money backed by financiers-manipulated debt. The euro is fundamentally money backed by real economic activity. The distinction will matter. And the finance industry will follow.

This is very interesting, but there is a lot of real economic activity in the United States as well (in Britain, not so much) and several eurozone countries are also heavy on the service side of the economy. The leverage of European retail banks is much higher than that of US retail banks. This is a major regulatory failure we'll have to correct.

We may soon see losses in increasingly obsolete parts of manufacturing that rival those of the financial sector. Our advantage is that these seem to be in a worse shape in the US, and another is that in most of Europe we will see much less of a drop in housing prices.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 10:10:46 AM EST
I wonder which numbers CNN used?

Following a link from FT.com I find this article.
Including for example Citigroup leverage ratio 2008: 56

There is a reason why Citibank got a lot of money from the US treasury.

Also included in the article is this important paragraph:


All of those leverage ratios are high.  And they actually understate the truth.  For instance, besides the $2.1 trillion of assets Citi has ON its balance sheet, it has another $1.2 trillion OFF its balance sheet.  The only reason I didn't include these in my calculation is I wasn't sure how much off-balance sheet exposures the other banks have and I wanted the leverage calculations to be consistent.  (I tried to look it up in their SEC filings, but disclosure varies by company.  Citi is the only one of the bunch that spells it out clearly.)

I don´t know if the same is true for European banks too. I seem to remember that accounting rules are different in Europe?
Anyway the numbers seem to indicate that the leverage ratios aren´t that different.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:44:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EU banks are indeed highly leveraged

Their total assets compared to their capital base can be 30-50 times larger, compared to ratios in the 20-30 range for US banks. That's clearly going to change, but it does matter what kind of assets you hold.

Highly regulated mortgage loans to domestic households are clearly a better proposition in France and Germany than in the US or UK, even if they hold the same kind of rating and capital requirement.

You simply cannot get a loan where debt service is more than 35% of your documented income in France - it's illegal.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:49:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However, a junior bank officer can apparently sign off on highly leveraged derivatives trading that commits the bank to billions of euros in debt.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 09:38:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i overlooked this and made the similar comments below. Germany is stuffed to the gills with medium size industrial concerns that are living on a defacto protected market. Companies like  Siemens have many hopeless divisions. French manufacturing is basically silly and will remain so as long as the manufacturing sector remains the place where junior degree dictators go if they can't make it in government.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 09:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have to tell you, Jerome: I think some of this is Hooverism.  I agree that throwing money into tax cuts for this or that group is, indeed, placing too much emphasis on the consumption side, but a large stimulus package putting resources into productive assets -- rail, schools, sewers, etc -- is an investment to further productivity down the road.

And it's not overwhelmingly inflationary in the context of an economy operating below full capacity and subject to strong deflationary pressures, as you well know -- again, if we're talking about productive assets.  Some inflation down the road, of course, but that's not an altogether bad thing.  It's part of the point.

Now, should taxes rise on the wealthy?  Yes.  But if you simply raise taxes by the amount of the stimulus, it's not a stimulus.  The net effect is zero or near-zero.  More progressive taxation is a general policy goal.  It doesn't have much to do with the ins and outs of a stimulus package.  It's more of a "Hey, while we're at it, let's rebalance the tax burden while we have political capital" kind of thing.

Operating under normal conditions or in the case of a mild recession, I'd agree with your view that fiscal prudence should be the priority.  Maybe loosen a bit, but leave most of the heavy lifting to the central bank.  That's not what this is, though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:48:25 PM EST
But moving the tax system to take more from the rich and less from the poor is not a zero-sum game as they do not consume the same proportion of their incomes and do not use it for the same kinds of goods and services.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 03:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True.  Higher propensity to consume.  That's what I meant about near-zero, because I don't think the propensity is quite as high as we'd hope among those who are employed, regardless of income level.  Which is why I think you have to handle the recession with public works, putting the money in the hands of people who are going to spend all, or nearly all, of it and restoring some sense of normalcy.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 02:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if you simply raise taxes by the amount of the stimulus, it's not a stimulus.
People tell me that the poor are wont to spend while the rich rather save, which means a zero-sum redistribution can be a stimulus. Or so I'm told.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 03:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But surely we're talking about the structural deficit here, right? That is, the deficit we would have if the economy were at full employment.

- Jake

"Terraforming your own planet to make it uninhabitable hardly counts as epic win." - ThatBritGuy

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 06:11:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Like many American commentators, you underestimate the size and strength of the US manufacturing base which, despite 40 years of deinsdustrialization policy, remains enormous and quite deep. And you underestimate the weakness of European manufacturing - which is hollowing out rapidly due the same outsourcing and labor cost minimizing idiocy that has damaged the US economy. But it is not at all clear to me that Europe is "making things". Boeing is not really worse than Airbus. Alcatel/Lucent is a common disaster zone. GE still makes excellent turbines in the US and even GMs spun off locomotive business is still doing well.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 09:23:34 PM EST
about US manufacturing, which is not as inexistent as most people think. But generally the point is that finance has squeezed manufacturing activity everywhere, and this was most acute in those countries that were at the heart of the financial world, is the US and, firstly, UK.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 09:49:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
one weird data point is Switzerland which has a prospering, as far as I know, high value manufacturing base despite or because of its dependence on banking.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 03:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i should also point out that that UK has TWO problems: a much too big financial sector and oil wealth that cushioned the collapse of manufacturing but is pretty much gone now. Thatcher was only possible because of the north sea oil fields.
by rootless2 (redacted) on Sat Jan 3rd, 2009 at 03:54:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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