Yawn... more financial markets collapse...

by Jerome a Paris
Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 06:20:59 AM EST

Debt crisis spreads to US municipalities

A collapse in confidence in a $330bn corner of the debt market has left US municipalities and student loan providers facing spiralling interest rate costs.

80 per cent of auctions held on Wednesday had failed. This is in the region of $29bn, traders said.

Banks advised to walk away from big deals

Leading banks are being advised that it would be cheaper to walk away from big buy-out deals than incur further losses on their funding commitments, increasing the chances that more high-profile private equity transactions will collapse.

This advice from lawyers contrasts with the conventional wisdom that banks would risk serious damage to their reputations if they were to drop out of deals.

If this is too arcane, here's what this means:

  • US municipalities are brutally discovering that one of their main sources of funding has disappeared overnight, and that they have to pay extortionate interest rates (one of the articles mentions 20%) to get emergency replacement funding. The same goes to entities providing student loans;
  • banks are being advised to dump clients to whom they have already committed money, with the argument that the cost of that (in both financial penalties and reputational damage) is lower than the losses from proceeding with that funding. We're talking pretty desperate measures there.
In both cases, this is blamed on "cataclysmic conditions in the capital markets." As these markets increasingly look like dominoes, falling (or failing) one after the other (albeit in slow motion), as more bad news continue to pour in almost randomly, it is hard to find solace anywhere.

But the thing to note now is that the financial crisis is now hitting directly the "real" world - businesses and public entities are getting caught and have to pay a direct price.


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Renseignements téléphoniques: deux fois moins d'appels en 2007

Les numéros de renseignements téléphoniques en 118, apparus fin 2005, ont reçu environ deux fois moins d'appels par rapport à 2004, dernière année complète de monopole du 12, a indiqué vendredi PagesJaunes

Ideology dictated that phone directory services (by phone) be market-based, so they replaced the very simple "12" number for information by a slew of 6-digit numbers starting by 118xxx.

And the results are in: prices are up, people are confused, and the number of queries wes divided by two.

amongst the anectodes is that Free, the internet provider, put up a toll-free number, and was forced to take it down after others successfully sued for unfair competition...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 06:31:01 AM EST
J, for the life of me, after speaking with venture firms on both coasts, and spending two days at the windpower finance summit, i couldn't tell if the North American bankers (many of whom have European parents) suffer from Ostrich disease, or if they ignore the meltdown because they honestly believe windpower deals will continue getting done.

My overall impression of the past two visits to the US is that they don't really know what's already hitting them, and wouldn't believe it possible if they did know.

Skennah Kowa

by Crazy Horse on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 07:30:39 AM EST
But I thought that windpower was safe, since it's regulated... and that therefore it would be easy to fund no matter what, as banks flee risky investments?

I certainly haven't heard that wind in europe is having trouble getting funding.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 09:13:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there's a good chance that clean energy deals are still going to boom:

  • the sector itself has excellent prospects, decent to excellent profitability, and is booming;

  • lending to the sector is relatively safe as revenues are often based on regulation-driven tariffs that are highly predictable (and predictability is a huge plus in today's financial markets);

  • a lot of the financing is based on "boring",stodgy financial structures that are tested, proven, and based on thorough risk-analysis. Given that the lack of risk analysis is what lead to the crisis in other areas, these stodgy, boring structures are suddenly a lot more attractive.

Maybe I'm deluding myself because this is my sector, but I think not.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 09:16:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am aware that wind projects both in Europe and at least for this year in the US have stable markets and are getting funded.  I concur with Avec's and J's assessments.  I was only remarking on the longer term portion, partly because some bankers have told me windpower would get "hammered" as well.  (Perhaps they were referring to stock prices???)  But either way, i see windpower continuing to be a valid and growing investment vehicle, even enjoying more rapid growth as the financial community perceives wind as far more stable than other investments.

Skennah Kowa
by Crazy Horse on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 09:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are three similar articles in today's NY Times, including the op-ed by Paul Krugman.

I still don't understand the details of these types of loans, but any municipal entity that would finance long-range projects with a variable rate loan needs to get better financial advice.

Typically, in the US, municipals are long-term (except for tax-anticipation notes), fixed rates and are sold to wealthy investors who like the fact that they are tax exempt.

Paying a set amount each year allows the agency to budget appropriately. The low liquidity of these bonds is supposed to be one of their "features". Buyers don't plan on selling them very often since they also want to see a steady income.

Imagine if all the talent that has gone into devising such complicated transactions had been redirected to more useful areas, like industrial planning, or designing sustainable social service funding, or even replacing capitalist growth with something based more on renewable resources.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 08:40:57 AM EST
What a quaint idea. Social services? But surely, you realise that those would never be profitable compared to rape-and-run wealth capture?

- Jake

Tory Bliar for president prison!

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Feb 17th, 2008 at 10:16:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Something similar may be happening in the City in London. Despite the news about the financial sector on the edge of collapse and the major banks announcing cutbacks in the tens of thousands of jobs; either the City is laying off without making any announcements, or they figure the world is over and let's not do anything too rash because it isnt going to make any difference and just might accelerate the end of the world or the world isnt over and its a minor blip so things will get back to normal any day now.

Anybody in the cCity have anectodal evidence or otherwise which of the above scenarios does apply? Its Alice in Wonderland out there.

by An American in London on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 08:47:01 AM EST
The London press is reporting a total of 7 billion pounds in bonuses having been given out at the end of the year.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 12:58:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hear againa nad agian..t eh finaancial world is not the real wolrd of economy.. but it might hit the real world.. ont he other hand.. the earn real money and status... so... in which sense is not real?

Could we get rid of them?.. in asense some part it is real some part it i not?

I never quite got it....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:41:09 AM EST
BBC NEWS | Business | US consumer confidence plummets
Confidence among US consumers has fallen to a 16-year low, as fears grow about recession and job cuts, a closely-watched survey has found.

The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 69.6 in February, from 78.4 in January.

The report said the index had only been this low during past recessions.



I'm tired of this backslapping, aint humanity great BS, we're a virus with shoes Bill Hicks
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 12:15:54 PM EST
There's this rather interesting opinion column I just saw in Asia Times online http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JB16Dj02.html in which the writer argues that all the bloated Wall Street firms should be allowed to collapse, rather than the U.S. Treasury rescuing them from their own idiocies.

Not a bad idea, perhaps.

by Mnemosyne on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 10:00:28 PM EST
The author seems to think that economic ideologies produce circumstances rather than reflect them. Perhaps- perhaps not. A good case can be made that there is a vibrant growth industry in producing ideological "products" to satisfy a market for fig leaves- justifications for plunder.
Also, there is still a lot of confusion around the world about the "Government" and "Wall Street" in the US. Ask any of the denizens of K-street, after a two martini lunch, who really rules, and I suspect the confusion will be cleared up right away.

Grabbing what you can, as John Ruskin said, isn't any less wicked when you grab it with the power of your brains than with the power of your fists.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sat Feb 16th, 2008 at 02:21:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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