European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.

US Tsunami Tuesday Diary

by ATinNM
Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 04:05:22 PM EST

In case you've been living under a rock ...

This is an election year in the US and today 22 states are conducting their primary. While I am loathe to post US-centric diaries on ET the international interest in the next President of the US nudges me to post this diary.

Plus it will quarantine the comments thus preventing infection on the Open Thread & etc.

These are the states and delegates for the 2/5 primary for the Democrat Presidential nomination. Source: Wikipedia.

[The Republican info is also there but I don't care. A Republican primary is winner-take-all. ]

Delegates: Pledged Unpledged Total

Alabama 52 8 60
Alaska 13 5 18
American
Samoa 3 10 13
Arizona 56 11 67
Arkansas 35 12 47
California 370 71 441
Colorado 55 16 71
Connecticut 48 13 61
Delaware 15 8 23
Democrats Abroad 7 4 11
Georgia 87 17 104
Idaho 18 5 23
Illinois 153 32 185
Kansas 32 8 40
Massachusetts 93 28 121
Minnesota 72 16 88
Missouri 72 16 88
New Jersey 107 20 127
New Mexico 26 12 38
New York 232 48 280
North Dakota 13 8 21
Oklahoma 38 9 47
Tennessee 68 17 85
Utah 23 6 29
West Virginia 18 - 18

Totals: 1,706 400 2,106

Current delegate count w/o Michigan and Florida from MyDD:

Clinton: 48
Uncommitted: 62
Obama: 63

Total needed to elect: 2,208
Total delegates to 2008 nominating convention: 3,977

Note 1: The Democratic procedure is to apportion the delegates by the percentage of popular vote received in that state. In practice, this doesn't always work out. Example, Clinton won the popular vote in the Nevada caucuses but Obama got more 13 to her 12 - correction requested - delegates.

Note 2: The 400 uncommitted delegates represent almost 40% of the delegates selected on 2/5 and are, when the previous are added to the count, 22.22% of the vote needed by a candidate to get the nomination! That's one group to keep watch on as they are a tremendous source of votes that can be 'sprung' at the convention.

THINGS TO WATCH FOR:

Clinton/Obama percentages. Clinton was ahead, by a lot, in national polls although Obama has been surging in the most recent polls. A small win by Clinton is bad for her and even a small win by Obama "exceeds expectations."
California -- this is the biggie but results won't be known until all the Euro-EuroTribbers are snug in their beds dreaming of StopBlair success. (Sign the petition HERE!
On the Republican Side: look for Huckabee's success in the Southern States: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. He has already won West Virginia.
Romney/McCain -- this is Romney's last stand. He has to grab states to deflect McCain's Front Runner status.

Other Things to Watch requested.

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Poll

Votes: 8
Results	\|	Other Polls

US Tsunami Tuesday Diary | 132 comments (132 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

I think most Ameri-EuroTribbers will be snug in their beds before Cali is called. Polls close at 11PM EST there, and, if it shapes up as very close, we could be talking about 2 or 3AM.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 04:12:46 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Informed Sources News Agency ;-) is reporting over 2,000,000 Californians sent in their ballots. When these are announced it is conceivable a landslide, either way, will be known.

We should get some idea of how the day is closing when the eastern, especially the NE, states report and the South as well. C should do well in the first, O do well in the second.

That's CW, natch but based IMO on reality.

(And I'd throw in some more acronyms if I could think of 'em.)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 04:47:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

As far as the US elections, NIMBY.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 04:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Just had a thought (they occur so rarely, you know.)

What about trying to establish an alternative, real time, hook-up for an ET analysis and commentary on the actual election?

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 05:00:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Ha, I look forward to a full results service tomorrow morning....ha !! jes' jokin', leave that to kos.

I have no idea what will happen, we're too far away and any source I turn to seems to have turned into screaming hellhole of partizan madness. So I'll step back from this one.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 04:24:37 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

While not having skin in the game I confess to a visceral dislike of the Clintons, the DLC, and their ilk. I'd love to see them taken down & out. I've been in the game too long to be affected by Obama-mania but neither to I have anything against him.

So come to ET my dear, me duck, - & other colorful Brit expressions I don't understand - to get the Inside & Real Scoop on the Poop.

(LOL)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 04:54:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

I think, for me, it's less a dislike of the Clintons and more a dislike of the fact that they perceive a need to behave a certain way based upon the fact that they've been playing defense for so long. And I really hate the people they surround themselves with, most of all Mark "Jabba the Hut" Penn and his scumbag buddies at the DLC. I want those people gone for good, and the Clintons, too, if they refuse to see the light.

That's not to say that Obama is some sort of fucking Messiah. But, given the choice (as I hope I'll have next Tuesday), I'll roll the dice on him.

Speaking of Jabba, apparently Clinton has agreed to a debate on Faux News, and Penn wants Obama to debate Clinton every week until at least March 4th. I can't decide if Penn is trying to lower expectations -- this is my suspicion -- or if they've actually seen data that scares the living hell out of them. There were a lot of undecideds in Cal and elsewhere, and if the incumbent effect hits Clinton, it could be a long night for them.

But, honestly, I haven't got a clue as to what we can expect. My DeanforAmerica-provided skepticism never goes away here until the results come in. But I'm interested to see what our little friends in Camp Obama can come up with.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 05:30:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Debates could work for Obama if he starts taking pops at her record and her programme. After all, Bill's record is plain to see and she's got exactly the same people recommending exactly the same things so there's plenty of ammo.

Nafta would be high on my list of weaknesses. Hitting on her corporate-ness could hurt her too, that Wal-Mart crack was a good shot but there's a big crack there as more and more Americans realise that the failing economy is because people like Hilary went out of their way to enable failure.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 06:23:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

The Clinton people are already toying with the "He's beholden to the far left" line, which is pretty funny after the whole Reagan debacle.

Agreed, and NAFTA could be especially harsh to her if he ties it in with the community organizing in Chicago, since it links directly with those trade issues.

I'm surprised he didn't go after her on Wal-Mart more, but he may have thought the evidence of her pushing better stuff for women would backfire.

There's a lot to go after on Bill Clinton, too. You're right. Welfare reform, the health care failure (with hits Hillary directly on both health care and the ability to get things done), and several others.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 06:44:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

One key issue he should've hit her harder on is immigration. On the driver's licenses, in particular, she threw immigrants under the bus.

That might, however, account for Zogby showing a surge of Obama support among Latinos in the last few days -- again, if Zogby got it at all right.

Side note: Either Zogby or SurveyUSA is going to look idiotic tomorrow morning.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 06:46:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

The Clinton Faction has awoken to the fact she is in a fight for the nomination and recent events have not been in their favor.

On another topic ...

Kos is reporting:

Shelby County poll workers surprised many are choosing Democrat ballots
Shelby County poll workers say they are surprised by the number of Democratic ballots being cast in the state's most Republican county.
At the University Baptist Church in Montevallo, 253 Republicans had voted by 12:51 p.m. while 106 had voted in the Democratic primary [...]
At Pea Ridge Community Center by 1:40 p.m. 106 people had voted, 43 of them on the Democratic ballot [...]
At Siluria Baptist Church in Alabaster, 672 people had voted by 2:30, a turnout that poll inspector Rebecca Kent said was higher than usual. There, 188 voters chose Democratic ballots.
In 2004, Bush won Shelby County 81-19 percent.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 06:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

If it's 81% Rep, it's white. If I had to guess, that is the "Vote Hillary, Stop the N-----" vote. And, yes, having (very racist) relatives in the Deep South, I can assure you that vote will have existed today in that region. It could make a real difference in delegates for AL.

Georgia will likely go to Obama purely because of Atlanta and Savannah. Both are majority-black, and ATL skews young with so many young professionals and large universities.

Then again, if I'm wrong and Obama won Shelby County, you can go ahead and write McCain's obituary now if Obama is the nominee.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 06:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Having lived outside NO during the early 60s I can remember the "Don't Let the Sun Set on You" signs outside towns in the Mississippi delta region.

And I don't think they were posted for aluminum-siding salesmen.

So ... yeah, that seems reasonable.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

FYI: John Geraghty at National Review -- yeah, I know, that National Review -- says the first two waves of exit polls out of Massachusetts show a dead heat between Obama and Clinton, while Romney leads McCain by 20pts.

(shrug) For what it's worth.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 06:14:30 PM EST

apparently not much (none / 0)

by HiD on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 04:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

RESULT (none / 0)

Georgia

Obama projected to win.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:01:08 PM EST

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

Exit polls on Georgia (how it broke down):

Obama took 86% of blacks, 43% of whites.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

do Independents get to vote in Georgia?

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:23:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

I think it's an open primary, so yes. Don't quote me on it, though. AT would know.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 1)

AT would have to look it up. ;-)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 1)

so? is it? ;-)

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 1)

You'll have to wait. I'm working -- for wages, gadzooks! I feel ... so ... one with the proletariat.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:34:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 1)

For the party, comrade.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:35:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

There is power,
there is power,
in a gang of working men.
When they stand.
Club in hand.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:59:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 1)

A quick googling says that it is, indeed, an open primary. So Reps and Indies could vote.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

Any turnout figures? Just trying to get a handle on who was voting for who, and how they seem to have voted.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | At-a-glance: Super Tuesday

0:25 GMT : It looks like Mr Obama took 43% of white voters in Georgia, compared with 24% in South Carolina a week and a half ago, political correspondent Rick Klein tells ABC News. He says the big concern after South Carolina was that Mr Obama had become the "black" candidate but that Georgia's initial results suggest this is not the case.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 1)

That's good because otherwise ¨white¨ voters would support a ¨black¨ candidate. Which is impossible, as everyone knows.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

If whites vote for Obama, the terrorists win, you know.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

No no no. If whites vote for Obama, it must be because he ain't black

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:20:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: RESULT (none / 0)

He's not black. He's a "halfrican," remember.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:21:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's a sign! (4.00 / 6)

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | At-a-glance: Super Tuesday

23:45 GMT : Arkansas : A tornado is heading towards the town of Clinton, Arkansas, CNN reports.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:01:11 PM EST

Re: It's a sign! (none / 0)

I so didn't want to laugh, but I couldn't help it. Here's hoping everybody's alright.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:05:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's a sign! (none / 0)

That's a good one!

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 07:29:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Just heard:

Turn out in Santa Fe is incredible. Every precinct is using photocopied ballots as all the printed ones are gone.

Not good news for Clinton.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:06:39 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Illinois to Obama, Oklahoma to Clinton.

Illinois to McCain, Massachusetts to Romney. Huckabee ahead in Georgia.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

What's the significance of Santa Fe?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:09:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Should be Obama territory, for the most part.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:13:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

CNN is calling Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma for Clinton; Illinois and Georgia for Obama. No

CNN is calling Illinois and Connecticut for McCain -- with 0% of precincts reporting.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:12:37 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Apparently about 1/3 of Dems in Alabama don't vote until February 9th.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:15:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Oh why not.

Finish the election 4 days after everybody else votes so the results come out OK.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:19:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

That's what Bowers at OpenLeft said. Not sure why that is the case, assuming it is the case.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:21:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

According to WNYC (NPR station) the Clinton camp is already starting to spin the results out of the NE.

"Clinton appeals to the working class and Obama to the higher wage workers."

yuck

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:24:07 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Well, to be fair, that is the group that has voted for her. I did some quick math, based upon MSNBC'c exit polling.

Massachusetts
O 48.31%
C 47.83%

Connecticut
O 49.51%
C 46.26%

New Jersey
C 48.96%
O 48.62%

Also, an interesting demographic point: Latinos in California went 61-38% for Clinton, which means almost all of the late-deciders among them went to Obama.

This is going to be a razor-thin margin in the key states, it seems. Either way, the Obama surge seems to have been very real.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

More using MSNBC exit polls:

Delaware
O 48.69%
C 44.26%

Missouri
C 46.95%
O 45.45%

Alabama
O 54.05%
C 41.18%

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Is that Alabama result turned around?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

No. Obama seems to have taken 52% of women, 57% of men.

The polls could be wrong, of course. This is just the math I get multiplying share of the vote in one gender by that gender's share of the overall vote, and adding it to the same formula for the other gender.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

OK. Upthread ATinNM said CNN was calling Alabama for Clinton, which is why I ask.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:52:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

I think whomever is on CNN may have meant Arkansas and misspoke.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:53:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Apparently someone on CNN blew it, they've yanked the call as of now.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Obama's going to win Alabama big. check out the white vote for him, though:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225966

Only 22%.

They just called Massachusetts for Clinton (how??).

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Bland observation:

If we get a string of tight wins in states Clinton was supposed to win and outsize wins for Obama in a few states, Obama can end up with more delegates even if Clinton wins more states.

What's the exit polling in Illinois?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Illinois
O 68.26%
C 29.9%

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

And New York?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:54:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Nothing in New York et. Polls close there in three minutes. Clinton will win, but the question is, By how much?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:56:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Also: what will she win? I remember a story from a few days ago that she might lose NYC.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Harlem, the Bronx, and Brooklyn should go for Obama big time along with the upper west side. The East Side? I don't know. Staten Island should go Clinton and she should pick-up some wards in Queens.

On the whole, Obama has the edge.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:11:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Those are my thoughts, too. Obama will run strong in NYC. Clinton will do well on Long Island and Upstate, with perhaps some breaks in the college towns.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

"Yuck" from the fact the US Left and US unionism divorced, to the detriment of both, many years ago.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:45:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Doing off-the-cuff analysis while the polls come in?

You are one hard-core stat freak Drew.

:)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

I know, I'm a total junkie.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:00:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

CNN calling New Jersey for McCain

Apparently the Conservative and WackoWing split between Romney and Huckabee.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:31:27 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

So McCain gets the Fruitcake and psycho vote?

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

McCain won self-described moderates and presumably neocons. Romney and Huckabee are splitting the wingers.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:43:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

hee-hee-hee the GOP coalition is splitting along predicted lines and the non-Winger faction is winning.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:50:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Hey, neocons have a legitimate claim to be wingers, too. Don't be so disparaging.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 08:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Oh, and Romney will likely be taking the economic wing of the GOP, of course.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Obama wins Delaware.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:04:06 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

CNN called New York and Mass(& etc) for Clinton.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:05:43 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

whoops, I meant WNYC

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:07:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Yeah, I think the projections come from AP.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

yes

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:08:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Huckabee got Alabama and Arkansas

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:08:19 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (4.00 / 2)

A Squirrel in Every Popper!

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:12:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Breaking news from up here, on my (none / 0)

television, courtesy of RDS. The Habs are beating the Sens 4-1.

If only we had finished the Rangers when leading 3-0 midway through the third period we'd be first seed in the Eastern Conference tonight.

I understand there's something going on on the english language US channels too.

"C'est un scandale !"

by redstar on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:21:06 PM EST

Breaking update... (none / 0)

the Sens scored. 4-2 Habs, 2nd period almost over.

"C'est un scandale !"

by redstar on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Romney has to start winning some states or he is done.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:21:53 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

I'll go out on a limb and say he'll win Utah.

Just a hunch. No real reason.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

H'mmm. Utah?

I wonder what gave you that idea!

;-)

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:28:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Because he saved the Olympics, of course. ;)

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

And, indeed, Romney takes Utah. Praise (Mormon) Jesus!

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:02:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

As of now:

DEM -- delegates proportionate to voter percentage

Clinton:
Arkansas
Massachusetts
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee

Obama:

Delaware
Georgia
Illinois

REP -- Winner take all

Huckabee:

Alabama
Arkansas
West Virginia

McCain:

Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
New Jersey

Romney:

Massachusetts

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:26:23 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Obama wins Alabama and Kansas.

Obama leading Connecticut. Clinton leading in Missouri.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:27:27 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Kansas is a surprise. I thought Clinton would have pulled that one out.

AFC, I've got to eat before the next returns come in.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Obama's from Kansas.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 09:32:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Obama wins North Dakota.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:03:26 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

And Utah.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Faux News finally calls Connecticut for Obama, so the Obamanites get their one upset.

Kos has Obama cleaning up in the West, taking Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:17:58 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Scratch that. Seems Page jumped the gun at dKos and put checks on Obama for those four states.

Obama takes Minnesota. Utah was called for him, and presumably it will remain.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

AT, nanne, where'd y'all go? 35 mins to Cal closings.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:24:56 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Maybe they belong to the kind of people who actually need sleep even during the week. I've heard of that.

I just got up to see who wins and finish my paper due tomorrow (EU development policy through Cotonou). Yawn.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:43:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Indeed! Sleep. Now seems like Clinton's winning Cali after 6 hours of that...

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 03:55:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Back.

Checking the results, this is looking like a good night - so far - for Obama

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

I was getting a kick out of Terry McAuliffe trying to pretend he couldn't hear when Keith Olbermann asked him about Connecticut being called for Obama.

So far, it looks like a draw, which means good for Obama. California could change that.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:57:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Looks like Obama did a little better than expected so far, but will it be enough to have more delegates overall at the end of the night (or month)? I doubt it.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Tough call. I think the delegate counts will come out very close, with the lead probably being determined by California. But keep in mind Obama has some very favorable states coming over the rest of the month, and that Clinton really needs to build up her donor base. (She's still not on the air in the DC metro area, for example.)

It'll be interesting. I think the race will be determined by Texas and Ohio. If not there, then the only big state left is Pennsylvania, and after that it's on to the convention.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:07:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

The delegate will split evenly which I think must count in Obama's favor.

Clinton is running out of steam while Obama is getting into his stride.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:15:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Did you catch what happened in Missouri? Clinton was up fourteen, and in the process of 15-20% of the votes coming in, the lead fell to 3%. I think Clinton takes it, but it turned into a great race.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:18:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Let me take that back.

Looking at the voting percentages, Obama is winning with large percentages in the West and Midwest:

MN 66 O, 33C
KS 73 0, 27C
CO 65 0, 37C

Where Clinton is winning she's not winning by that much, even in NY it was Clinton 57, Obama 40 which spits the delegates from that state; compare to Illinois where O won 65/33.

What this means is O is winning more delegates in states Clinton loses than C does in states O wins. Not in every state but a lot of states.

This ain't looking good for HC.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:23:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

It's all about Cali, baby.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:24:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Yup.

This is gettin' pretty interesting, me buckos.

If Obama can keep close to Clinton in California then he comes out ahead - mental arithmetic - in delegates tonight.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Exit polls apparently look pretty good for Clinton, but it also looks close enough to see essentially a split on delegates.

The Obama camp needed to stay within one or two hundred delegates to keep up, and it looks like they'll get that. Clinton avoided the catastrophic loss, but she's got to boost her grassroots fundraising in order to get on the air along the Chesapeake and Potomac, as well as in Tejas and Ohio.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:36:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Idaho finally called for O.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 10:59:02 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Clinton takes Arizona.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:15:42 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

By a 51/40 split (with 48% reporting) that means the delegates go 50/40 split.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:30:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Romney wins Montana, Paul gets 25% of the nutburger vote.

He also won Minnesota so he can stay alive, barely.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:34:16 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

I'm surprised he took Montana. I would've that to be primo McCain territory, but McCain may not have been competing.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:37:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Only by 38%/25% (100% reporting)

Montana has a lot of Mormons, well "a lot" for Montana! And I'll bet that put him over.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:40:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Could be.

Holy shit, we're now at 49-48% in Missouri with 91% reporting. How did this gap close?!

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:43:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

St Louis and Kansas City are always last. They have large populations, historically run slow to report, and - wanna bet I'm right? - weren't expecting a massive turnout based on previous primaries. Both cities have large AA populations and I'll bet we see a swing to Obama.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:47:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

It could happen based on some quick math in a comment on dKos. It's KC, STL and the suburbs left to report, all of which are going heavily to Obama.

Interesting: This is apparently what happened with Claire McCaskill.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:49:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Looks like Huckabee is going to take Tennessee,

Yup AP just called it.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:41:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Love that Obama cut off McCain for the speech.

Huckster in Tennessee was predictable. We Southerners are a shallow lot. ;)

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:44:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

To be expected. He fits the cultural, social, and political patterns, not to mention the religious inculturation, of the south.

Plus ya'all are a bunch of meatheads.

:-þ

:-0

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:49:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Damned snooty westerners and your goofy fake-bearded governors and no water.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

MSNBC just withdrew its call on Clinton in Missouri.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:55:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

I WANT CALIFORNIA RESULTS GODDAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:52:25 PM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

LOL! C 55-22 O with 13% in.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 1)

Thanks.

Are we the only two ~~fanatics~~ interested parties on this thread?

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Apparently. But, with a little help from nanne and TBG and Turamber, we did turn in a thread of over 100 comments.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Feb 5th, 2008 at 11:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Obama wins Colorado. Missouri still too close to call at 94% reporting.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 12:00:14 AM EST

SUCK ON IT, MSNBC! (none / 1)

Obama pulls ahead in Missouri. Did the press learn nothing after 2000?

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 12:06:37 AM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Clinton projected in California.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 12:12:39 AM EST

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Winning doesn't mean anything, really. It's the percentage of delegates she gets that is important.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 12:30:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

Per her exit polling, she should wind up with about 50% to about 46% for Obama.

Obama will, in all likelihood, win New Mexico with about 50% to Clinton's 43%, the rest going to Richardson. Alaska hasn't been called, but Obama's up at about 70%.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 12:32:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Tsunami Tuesday Diary (none / 0)

This has to count as a win for Obama. Clinton has been leading the national polls and now she splits the actual delegates with Obama.

Now, also, the rest of the primaries come slowly which, I submit, favors a more personal style which favors Obama.

Och nu den svenska kocken bakar en Alaskan älg jägare. Bonk! Bonk! Bonk!

by ATinNM on Wed Feb 6th, 2008 at 12:48:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thinking Out Loud (none / 0)

As I said elsewhere, this has to be counted as an Obama win but not by much. Rough calculations indicate he will get 4, or so, more delegates than Clinton. He won 14 states to her 7. He was not put away.

Clinton is in trouble.

First, there are stories floating around she is having trouble raising money.

Second, the schedule is unfavorable for her (see below.)

Third, the active anti-Clinton factions within the Democratic Party (the Kennedy's, for one) can see an opening to take them out. And the Clintons have made a lot of enemies over the years.

Fourth, this is the last election day where Edwards is a factor. Generally speaking these voters have already decided they are Not-Clinton so many will gravitate to Obama as the Not-Clinton.

Fifth, Bill Clinton can't keep his mouth shut. Expect at least one more major goof by that idiot between now and June 3 -- the last primary in South Dakota.

Together these suggest Obama should grab the majority of delegates from the rest of the schedule.

The Rest of the Schedule:

[Delegate count is Pledged Delegates]

Feb 9 - Lousiana, Nebraska, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Washington. 161 delegates

Feb 10 - Maine with 24 delegate

Feb 19 - Hawaii and Wisconsin. 94 delegates

Mar 4 - Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island. 370 delegates

Mar 11 - Mississippi. 33 delegates

April 22 - Pennsylvania. 151 delegates

May 3 - Guam. 3 delegates

May 6 - Indiana and North Carolina. 157 delegates

May 13 - West Virginia. 26 delegates

May 20 - Kentucky and Oregon. 117 delegates

June 1 - Puerto Rico. 55 delegates

June 3 - Montana and South Dakota. 29 delegates.

For a total of 1,220 delegates still up for grabs.

It appear